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The Hunter Gatherer
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25-02-2012 10:53pm#1
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Good to see you back bud, best of luck and hopefully there's plenty of winners to come. :-)
Thank you x PyRo, I'm eagerly awaiting the return of your chatroom aswell :pac:RoverJames wrote: »Hello, and welcome back, I used refer to you as Huntley anyway :pac:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76239310
I've missed your views and opinions so great to see you back.
That is where I got the idea James
Good to get back into the swing of things after having the head in the books and videos for so long.
Hope the AW is treating you well.0 -
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RoverJames wrote: »I killed my log
I stopped enjoying it and I found it was effecting my judgement, going for the long priced option too often (Charlie Adam Hollywood Ball syndrome :pac: ).
Still punting away though and enjoying it though so happy out.
You did well to pull €700+ from it, only so much of that sand rubbish one can take :P :pac:
A nice war-chest for Cheltenham anyway!0 -
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The introduction of a fourth day at Cheltenham in 2005 brought with it the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, a race that has ony attained Grade 1 status since 2008. This 3 mile contest has had the added stigma of being a slow coach race partly due to the previous winners showing to be dour stayers, with last years winner Bob's Worth being the only one who hasn't run over further then 3 miles since his win in this contest. One horse who I have been loyal to all season is the well regarded Mount Benbulben, the Gordon Elliot trained Grade 2 winner who has showed plenty of promise this year.
A point-to-point winner this gelding was always going to shape into a stayer, but hasn't yet run further than 2m 4f in rules races. His bumper form from last season is highly respected, with an 8 length beating of the future Grade 1 winner Lovethehigherlaw. It was that show of ability which prompted Barry Connell to purchase him in the summer of 2011 for a reported €250,000, a decent sum for a National Hunt novice. Mount Benbulben's hurdling career started off abit cagey last October on his seasonal reappearance when he pulled hard throughout and then unfortunately slipped up on the flat with half a mile to run. His jumping was a little novicey at times but the extra 2f next time out helped and he travelled and jumped better to land a maiden hurdle on the bridle. A step up in trip and class was the next port of call for Gordon Elliot's horse who was entered into a 2m 4f Grade 2 contest at Navan on November 27th. Further improvement in the jumping department led to him travelling strongly throughout when he was ridden prominently about 5 lengths off in second. As the leader turned the screw when they turned for home Mount Benbulben struggled to find his stride and it looked like he was going to be outpaced. However, he showed a very likeable attitude by battling on all the way to the line to win by little over a length. It was a decent performance and he showed an engine that suggested he would be suited by a further step up in trip.
A Grade 1 at his favourite hunting ground in Navan over course & distance was next up and connections were disappointed by the outcome. With concerns that he may be outpaced again Mount Benbulben was forced to make the running for the first time in his career and never looked confortable. He jumped right throughtout and failed to pick up when challenged by the subsequent winner Boston Bob, a smart prospect who is entered in this race. It was initially suggested that Mount Benbulben may not have been physically sound, although nothing came to light apart from a little soreness. Personally I think he simply didn't like to lead and didn't have the race run to suit in the slightest, which is why I am willing to forgive him that run. A line through Jetson on his previous run suggests he only ran slightly below par, with the distance being reduced by 3 lengths since his Grade 2 win. Even though I don't think he had the race in his favour that day I still think it was a very decent effort. Boston Bob has recorded an OR 150 since and won a strong Grade 2 in Leopardstown when he gave weight all round. Jetson has since come out and won a competitive 25 runner handicap over 3 miles, and has recorded an OR 132.
Mount Benbulben was given an OR 140 that day which is encouraging when you consider he didn't have it his own way. The step up in trip to 3 miles for this contest will bring added improvement, and the quick pace of the Albert Bartlett will play into his strength aswell. He could have possibly 10lbs up his sleeve still and if that was the case he definitely has the ability to land the spoils here, with last years winner Bob's Worth recording an OR 152 when he won it.
The biggest concern for me about this horse is the ground, with all his best form coming on soft-heavy and having never run over anything better than yielding-soft. With the ground always lightening quick on the Friday this is something that very well could make all this analysis pointless if he is totally outpaced. However, I think that the fast pace and step up to 3 miles will bring his strong engine into paly and he certainly won't be stopping going up the hill. It is a good thing that I don't follow trends too closely as 7 of the last 8 winners have run at Cheltenham before, something which isn't the case for Mount Benbulben who will be making his first trip across the water. However, that sample is quite small considering how new the race is so I firmly believe that if he is good enough he can win. Gordon Elliot is as shrewd a judge as any when peaking a horse for the festival and I am inspired by the fact he has decided to keep this horse off the track and fresh. Reports from the yard were that the horse did a fantastic piece of work last week in Fairyhouse which has unfortunately resulted in a price crash, along with the possible deflection of Boston Bob to the Neptune which looks like his preferred option. Mount Benbulben has shown plenty of heart and ability already in his performances and if he gets the run of the race he could finally justify his price tag.
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Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, Friday 16th of March.
Mount Benbulben 2 points win at 8/10 -
The handicaps of the festival provide many with the enjoyment of trying to find that big money shot that is a few pounds well in. The Coral Cup is a Grade 3 handicap hurdle which is one of the more enjoyable for me on a personal level. A tough 2m 5f it tends to be unfavourable to those rated in the 150's, with the highest rated winner recording 147. Furthermore, there has only been one winner off top weight (Sky's The Limit, 2006) and nothing else has won with more than 11-2 on its back. You've probably guessed it, but my selection is a 155 rated horse who will likely be carrying 11-11, a negative by all accounts. Get Me Out Of Here is the Johnjo O'Neill trained 8 year old who isn't shy of getting involved in these competitive handicaps.
Last season all roads led to Cheltenham with this gelding who remarkable didn't feel a whip until County Hurdle day when a massive gamble was stuffed by the ever present Ruby Walsh on Final Approach. A nose separated the pair that day, to delight of our own Urban Sea who still hasn't forgiven that Ascot pipe opener, and the cat was out of the bag so to speak. A step up in trip this season has yielded positive results, with a fine effort when only going down to Oscar Whiskey last December by 1¾ in a Grade 2 contest. He was getting 7lbs that day from the winner who had plenty in the tank, but it was a very inspiring run for connections over 2m 5f on good ground. With conditions looking to be the same come two weeks I think he will be aimed for this contest, with the Pertemps and County his other plausible venues.
A previous winner of the Betfair Hurdle before his Supreme 2nd in 2010, he was lined up again to compete in the 17f contest this year. With a mark of 151 I thought he would be out for a gallop to knock a few pounds off his mark. That wasn't to be the case with him running a stormer under the 7lbs claimer Maurice Linehan to grab second place. Unfortunately for me the 16's on offer disappeared like a cake in front of Michael Moore, and the 4lbs rise from the handicapper did little to ease my frustration. From thinking he could run off the high 140's and be a few pounds well in, he is now off a career best of 155.
I still haven't lost faith in JP McManus's horse yet as he has shown his quality in his previous two runs. His mark is a negative but it also must be noted that Get Me Out Of Here's top speed of 146 is the highest rating of any runner entered in this contest. He is one of the best hurdlers in training and has a fabulous record at Cheltenham, placing 2nd on three occasions and finishing 6th in the Greatwood when he was out for a spin.
Weight will stop any horse though and the danger is that something getting 15lbs could be well in. Get Me Out Of Here will certainly need to dump the stats book should he win this contest but I think he has a very live chance should he get there safely, with the yard seemingly in great form for the last few weeks. I'm sure AP will hold him out the back and gradually wind him up as they get to the top of the hill, where hopefully he will have enough about him to get involved at the business end of things over conditions that he should relish. Fingers crossed he lines up!
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Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, Wednesday 14th of March
Get Me Out Of Here 2 points win at 12/10 -
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RoverJames wrote: »........ lads do ye have to quote the whole thing ?
I know its annoying but I'm on my phone, sorry. Sure its Hunteys fault for the big write up 0 -
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There is simply no race that gets me as excited as the Arkle when there is a genuine 2 miler in the field. Deriving it's name from arguably the greatest racehorse of all time, it requires speed and jumping ability that can make the smallest error look enormous over these testing 2 miles. Sprinter Sacre is undoubtedly the most exciting novice chaser since Azertyuiop and has shown all the qualitites to date to suggest he could be one of the future greats. His novice successes already would have many believe that he is already bordering on superstar status.
With some solid novice hurdle form from last season connections always felt that this gangly French gelding was made for chasing. His three chase starts have been nothing short of exceptional, with him showing to be a very clever horse. He beat little on his chase debut at Doncaster last December but it was his effortless round of jumping which started to make the heart strings tingle. A Grade 2 at Kempton was always going to play to his strengths next time out although he was facing his stiffest test thus far. Showing phenomenal cruising speed and a rare cuteness over fences he cruised to a 16 length demolition of the Donald McCain trained Peddlers Cross. Although I backed him in my log that day I was as surprised as anyone with the ease of his victory. The track was never going to be advantageous for Peddlers but I still wasn't too keen on the theory that the horse was totally wrong that day. I simply believe he was jumped into the oblivion and had no answer for the speed of Nicky Henderson's 6 year old.
A trip out of novice company in the Grade 2 Game Spirit was the most recent endeavour of Sprinter Sacre and he further enhanced his reputation. Barry Geraghty earned his fee trying to tuck the horse in that day but it was always going to be a losing battle with this machine pulling double underneath him. He was picture perfect at every fence and corrected himself mid air when he missed one by half a stride. He breezed up the straight to win hard held on the bridle by 6 lengths to the 160 rated French Opera, a performance that had many in aye. The handicapper awarded him a rating of 169, unheard of for a novice out of company on his third chase start. Did I mention he did this all on the bridle?
Surprisingly, the detractors were still out who declared he wouldn't get up the hill if he pulled that hard in the Arkle. If they were looking for excuses after his Kempton win they were certainly grasping at straws at this stage. The hill is a non - issue for me in relation to Sprinter Sacre. Those in the Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof camps like to reassure themselves they haven't done their money by referring to last years Supreme, where Sprinter Sacre travelled like the winner until he hit the rising ground. As is the case with so many of these backward French types, he simply wasn't mature enough to tackle the incline and ran in a credible third. Connections have recently suggested he had a breathing issue then which is sorted now, but the horse himself has filled out remarkably since then. Barry Geraghty said it best when he suggested that his issue with the hill was that there may not be enough room to pull Sprinter Sacre up at the finish.
I have run out of superlatives to describe the animal at this stage and there wouldn't be enough eggs in Ireland to cover my face should he be beaten. The reality of the situation is that that isn't going to happen. He is simply too good for this field and I expect records to be broken along the way. With McCain previously bullish about Peddlers chances of reversing the form he has since suggested going the Jewson route to do the horse justice. In my eyes he may aswell have made the trip to Seven Barrows, bent down on his knees and started to wave the white flag. Al Ferof is simply too slow to win this contest with a top speed rating of 132, an abysmal figure for a 2 mile novice chaser. Cue Card is a nice type who I have been fond of but he may cut his own throat here if he tries to turn it into a stamina contest as connections have implied. Sprinter Sacre is an unstoppable animal who will turn out to be something special should he stay sound in the coming years. I have seen him meet three fences wrong so far and he has corrected himself mid air on two of those occasions without losing a stride. The ferocious pace of the Arkle will simply keep him on the bridle for longer before he decides to make a mockery of the field. My biggest worry is that Barry will be able to keep both legs in the irons and the hands firmly on the reins as he doesn't actually hold a pilot licence required to steer an aeroplane. For the purpose of the log I will be placing 2 points on this, but as Mark Winstanley says it is definitely a case of "chips all in".
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Arkle Challenge Trophy, Tuesday 13th of March
Sprinter Sacre, 2 points win at 11/100 -
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The Grade 1 Supreme Novices Hurdle provides the curtain raiser on the festival and is a particular highlight for many. This years contest is a wide open affair by all accounts and the form book has been turned on it's head more than once this season. The Irish have been extremely dominant in this contest over the years and I'm going to side with Noel Meade's Dylan Ross.
Dylan Ross has been an extremely frustrating horse for connections as he has a distinct ineptitude to get his nose in front. After some promising bumper form he was introduced to the hurdling scene in late 2010, where he was leading coming to the last and met it all wrong sending himself and Tim Carroll into the dirt. A disappointing effort in a bumper followed and connections decided to give him an easy summer before bringing him back over obstacles. He certainly showed his previous spark when he ran out an easy winner of his maiden hurdle on good ground. The 3 length second horse has since won his maiden and a handicap so the form of that is pretty decent. A Grade 3 in Navan was a decent step up next time when he faced his stablemate Il Fenomeno over 2 miles. After travelling strongly to the front he cocked his head a little and was out battled going to the line. That was a worrying sign but he was supported into favourite next time out in a listed contest. Again, after travelling strongly he showed little off the bridle and went down by a head.
The horse had definitely started to show some ingenuity at this stage but the yard thought it may have had to do with the testing surface and the lack of a strong gallop. The Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown was touted as a race that might suit but the opposition were a promising bunch. The strong favourite Sous Le Cieux had previously beat Il Fenomeno by 25 lengths so it seemed Dylan Ross would have it all to do to be competitive. With the going turning up sound enough with a strong pace Paul Carberry held him in rear, and powered through the field coming up the straight. With everyone else hard at work he was the last to spit the bit but simply didn't fancy the challenge and ran in a ½ length second to Cash and Go who was in receipt of 3lbs. His lack of courage was telling but it was a positive run considering the opposition were no slouches. It was clear by now that the horse has plenty of ability but lacks the heart to finish off his races.
Blinkers were applied and he lined up in a four runner field at the end of January. There was no pace again which didn't suit and with the yard trying different tactics he kicked for home first trying to steal a few lengths on the field. The held up Midnight Game was produced late under Davy Russell and he won it well by 2¼ lengths for Willie Mullins, with a 2lb swing in his favour. The blinkers were an improvement but the soft ground and lack of pace went against the horse again. I was a little disappointed in the tactics as I felt he should have been produced late to see would the blinkers enable him to put the race to bed, but the lack of pace negated that option.
Dylan Ross has shown plenty of class but has a touch of Harchibald syndrome. He travels brilliantly in his races but does very little when asked a question off the bridle. A strong pace and sound surface are key to this horse which is why I think he is a massive price for the Supreme Novices. The yard think very highly of him and I think he is as good as any of the Irish challengers. The form has been turned on its head many times on both sides of the pond and at a big price I feel he has the ability to run into a place. Had he been able to get his nose in front on his last 4 runs he would undoubtedly be favourite for this contest. He is a very clean hurdler aswell, rarely fluffs one and jumps like a dart from the hand of Phil Taylor. Noel Meade hasn't the best of records at Cheltenham, but has excelled in this race with two winners in 2000 and 2009 (Sausolito Bay and Go Native). He certainly thinks a lot of the animal and there isn't a jockey better suited to the horse than Paul Carberry. Unfortunately the firm ground put the brakes on his racecourse gallop today but they will have very little work left to do with him. The blistering pace and projected good-soft going will suit Dylan Ross and hopefully he will still be in with a chance at the bottom of the hill.
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Supreme Novices Hurdle, Tuesday 13th of March
Dylan Ross, 1 point e/w at 33/10 -
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The County Handicap Hurdle is one of the most competitive races of the Cheltenham Festival with over 25 runners. It is synonymous with low weighted animals who have sneaked in with a couple of pounds in hand off their official marks. My selection, Moon Dice, certainly doesn't coincide with the trends but he is a very classy animal that I have had lined up for this contest since Christmas.
With some very average maiden form over 2 miles it took a while for Moon Dice to get to grips with the National Hunt game, finally winning a maiden on his third attempt. His first two novice races resulted in two placed finishes but the quality of opposition left a lot to be desired. A poor attempt over 2 miles on suitable conditions failed to ignite his enthusiasm and he was sent to contest a 2 ½ mile novice hurdle at Fairyhouse. That was the first time he had encountered soft ground so far during his novice campaign and I have rarely seen a horse so disinterested. He didn't jump with any real fluency and when Carberry asked him for an effort he simply fell into a hole. He looked a horse who was totally out of sorts and in need of a long break, which is what Paul Flynn duly obliged with.
That 6 month hiatus from the game produced miraculous results with Moon Dice who looked a different animal on his reappearance in a handicap hurdle. The handicapper wasn't expecting much promise however and he was awarded a mark of 115 prior to the race, which was probably fair considering his sketchy form to date. Paul Flynn had this animal in top condition however and he ran out a 7 length winner in Limerick when he seemed to relish the step back to 2 miles. Connections wasted no time in reintroducing him gradually and he was thrown into the richest handicap race in Britain and Ireland, the Galway Hurdle. Tom Doyle was on for his second booking with the horse and the fast pace on a sound surface really brought out the best in this gelding. Turning over some well fancied rivals from the big yards it was a magnificent performance from all involved when Moon Dice went on the win fairly snugly in the end by 4½ lengths. Hindsight is 20-20 but it really told connections a lot about this 7 year old, good ground and a fast pace over 2 miles is exactly what he wants to show his best form.
A 29lb rise over two races wasn't enough to deter the yard from letting him take his place in the Greatwood Hurdle in early November. Carrying 11-6 he was kept in mid division and with conditions to suit he eased through the field when asked. He was desperately unfortunate to encounter traffic problems on more than one occasion and did well to finish a close third. He followed Olofi's line when turning for home and was dragged standside, with Tom Doyle then forced to manoeuvre him to the far rail to get a clear run. He was only upped 2lbs for that effort which was lenient as he very well could have won had he been given a gap earlier. With the horse showing so much promise he was allowed take his chance in the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown before the turn of the year. He led them round that day but the underfoot conditions didn't help and he was eased home by Tom Doyle when his chance was gone.
Moon Dice hasn't been seen since that appearance but the trainer has regularly commented that he has come into rude health over the last few weeks after a barren patch in the yard. His final piece of work was done last Sunday at Leopardstown when he worked with two of Weld's horse and the vibes were good that he was in great condition to take his chance in the County Hurdle. Top weight Brampour has been declared for this and the Champion Hurdle so it isn't clear whether he will line up, but the word from Ditcheat has previously stated that he will be racing on the Tuesday. That would be a shame as the entries would go up 6lbs if he was withdrawn, leaving Moon Dice with a jump from 11 stone to 11-6. That would worry me as there may be something lower in the weights that might just be better handicapped for this contest but I'm going to take my chance with this quality animal anyway. This 7 year old isn't the cleanest of hurdlers and can be sketchy at a few but I think he has enough ability to run a decent race in this. The breakneck pace of the County and quick ground on the Friday will suit him well and hopefully he will be more fortunate to get a clear run this time.
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County Handicap Hurdle, Friday 16th of March
Moon Dice, 2 points win at 9/10 -
The Pertemps Final is a 3 mile handicap hurdle which takes place on the new course at Cheltenham. A common viewpoint towards Phil Smith is that his handicapping of the Irish horses puts an end to their chances before they even line up. One horse who has certainly got in very leniently here is Jetson, a 7 year old gelding trained by Jessie Harrington.
Jetson has always shown to be a consistent performer and had a decent enough season last year with Noel Meade. He nearly landed his maiden win at the end of last season when he overtook the well regarded Bog Warrior coming to the last but was just seen off by a Mullins horse in Navan. The McGraths are a big breeding family and his owner Gerry decided to ship yards to Jessica Harrington this season which has paid dividends. Winning a maiden first time out in Cork with plenty in hand was enough to convince connections he deserved his chance in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Navan over 2½ miles. He was heavily supported that day into 4/1 showing how highly he was thought of. He travelled decently and was in with a shout of place claims until he landed on the last and cantered up to the line.
That performance hadn't deterred the faith Jessie had in him and he was entered into the Grade 1 at Navan over course and distance 3 weeks later. His jumping was much sharper that day but he was again outpaced up the straight and was eased home by Robbie Power. I am a massive fan of that form with only an eased 16 lengths separating him from the winner Boston Bob. The 2nd and 3rd horses were Mount Benbulnen and Ipsos Du Berlais who are very classy animals in their own right aswell.
With Jetson seemingly short of Grade 1 quality he was entered into the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown at the end of December. It was his first step up to 3 miles and he looked very capable of defying his mark of 124. After being supported from 20's into 12's he duly obliged for followers when running out a very handsome winner by 3¼ lengths. He seemed to have a little more in hand that day but it was his improved jumping which really caught my eye. After being slightly hampered at one stage Puppy kept him in mid division on the rail the whole way round, and once he gave him a bit of light the horse galloped on gallantly to the line. There was some well regarded horses in behind that day including Sweet My Lord, who gave almost a stone to Jetson when running in a 12 length fourth. He is well fancied for this contest but will still be giving 13lbs to my selection, which is why I think Jessie Harrington's 7 year old has got in lightly here.
A big concern for me with this animal is how he will handle the conditions. Having raced on nothing better than soft it is a concern how he will handle the likely quick conditions on Thursday. I have always felt he should be alright on a sound surface but it is simply an unknown and hopefully he won't be outpaced. If he jumps and travels like he did on his previous outing he will have a massive chance to get competitive here. The trip of 3 miles certainly seems to be in his favour and his weight of 10-4 is very lenient to say the least, although that will go up when those at the top of the list finalise their targets. I certainly wouldn't begrudge the ever game Buena Vista landing the spoils for the third consecutive time but I certainly won't be cheering for him if Jetson comes barrelling up that hill.
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Pertemps Final, Thursday 15th of March
Jetson, 2 points win at 10/10 -
The Royal Sun Alliance is a 3 mile novice chase which has a reputation as the most unforgiving race at the Cheltenham Festival. Many potentially great horses have fallen by the wayside after winning this race, highlighting that you need to have an animal who will give you everything after hacking around for 3 gruelling miles. The Irish tend to dominate this contest and with little value at the top of the market I'm going to side with Willie Mullin's Lambro.
Lambro is a very unexposed and consistent animal who has only been out of the placings on one occasion from 9 efforts. After winning a bumper at the start of last season he was sent hurdling 6 months later, where he won his maiden cosily on only his second outing over obstacles. The yard obviously thought a lot of him and he won a Grade 2 novice hurdle next time out over 2½ miles. His next port of call was a highly competitive Grade 2 at Punchestown on good ground where he was a well beaten 8th.
He was always a chaser in the making however and didn't disappoint connections on his first test over timber. That trip over 19f was probably a little short but he jumped well when ridden prominently and showed promise when he finished off his race well. I was quite surprised when Lambro lined up in a 2 mile contest in early January against some quality horses. What further surprised me was the tactics to hold him up, which certainly didn't play to the horses advantage. The impressive Flemenstar won it in the end by 3½ lengths after being hard pushed by Mullin's 7 year old and the form looks quite strong when you consider that he has gone on to win 4 on the trot, including a Grade 1. Connections realised the horse was in need of a step up in trip and he was entered into the PJ Moriarty novice chase over 2m 5f. After travelling well behind Last Instalment he hit the third last and lost a couple of lengths, but stayed on valiantly to the line to be a 3¼ length third.
Lambro is a versatile horse as he seems to travel on any surface which is an advantage here with it likely to be quick ground. He certainly seems like a horse to me who is crying out for a trip and the 3 miles should bring out further improvement. Grands Crus will likely be going for this and although a classy type I do have slight concern over how he will handle a strongly run 3 miles. I don't think there is very much between the market leaders and at a big price Lambro might just surprise a few. He is relatively unexposed and if he jumps and travels I think he has as good a shout as many of these.
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Royal Sun Alliance, Wednesday 14th of March
Lambro, 1 point e/w at 25/10 -
The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of this 4 day meet and without doubt the most anticipated race for most fans. It's unforgiving fences and 3m 2½f trip make it a gruelling test of stamina for any modern day stayer. There is no doubt about it that this years contest will be the defining chapter between the great Kauto Star and Long Run, the King attempting to regain his Gold Cup crown for an unprecedented 3rd time.
The 2010 King George ignited this great rivalry between Kauto Star and Long Run when Henderson's young pretender left them all in his wake when going on to win decisively. The word from Ditcheat was that Kauto wasn't a sound horse at the time and every attempt was made to get him spot on for when they clashed again in March 2011. That renewal last year was a vintage one by all accounts, the King George winner going against a two time Gold Cup winner, aswell as the ever reliable Denman with the holder Imperial Commander lining up. At the top of the hill you couldn't have scripted it better, stablemates Kauto Star and Denman powering downhill with Long Run under heavy pressure just to stay within distance of their tails. However, what looked like a fairytale finish for the Ditcheat camp turned to disaster when they hit the rising ground. The two friends had simply gone for each other too soon and Long Run outstayed them up the hill to claim a Gold Cup at 6 years of age. It was still a remarkable effort from Kauto and Denman but many felt age had finally caught up with these two superstars and Long Run was here to dominate the stayers division for the forthcoming years.
After an over the top effort at Punchestown many felt Kauto Star should be retired to preserve the stature of his previous achievements. Although I certainly wasn't accounting his Punchestown run, (he would have been beaten in a listed contest at that stage) I did start to have reservations about the advantages of going for another season with this 11 year old. I was astounded when the King burst back on the scene in November demolishing the field with his speed and finesse jumping that was reminiscent of his glory days. Long Run had spit the bit 7 furlongs from home that day and I thought he would come on massively from the run and turn it around in the King George. Needless to say I was made to look foolish again by Kauto, and severely out of pocket, when he simply jumped them all into submission to win by 1¼ length. Paul Nicholls had now declared that Kauto was in the best form of his life and would be going straight to Cheltenham for his swansong.
Although Long Run had been held on two occasions by the King connections were still upbeat about his chances in the Gold Cup. While many suggested he hadn't trained on, Nicky Henderson felt it was more to do with the sharp nature of Haydock and less so of Kempton. His prep run was set for the Denman chase at Newbury. With The Giant Bolster bowling along in front Long Run put in a very solid round of jumping, and had the ability to kick on again when Burton Port got to within ½ a length of him. Although many weren't impressed with the performance, I was, and a line through What A Friend actually puts him on better terms than last years Gold Cup win. My initial feeling was that with 2½ furlongs extra over a stiffer track will be enough for Long Run too outstay Kauto up the long hill to the finishing post. However, with no Denman hounding him along like last year at the top of the hill it may just give Ruby the chance to get a breather into Kauto. This is the Gold Cup though and getting a rest into your horse doesn't come into the equation very often.
With Kauto looking doubtful for a few days after a schooling fall I am delighted that he is actually going to be lining up here. I personally think that Kauto will travel and jump like a buck and have them all at it at the top of the hill, but I'm not convinced that he will have enough left to finish off the race when needs be. A lot of people have said that their head says Long Run and their heart says Kauto. My head says Long Run but it also says that Kauto is very capable of winning this contest. With the prices so short it is very difficult to call considering it could play into either horses hands. The age statistic of Gold Cup winners has never faced a 12 year old like Kauto Star, the equine King who has done it all. It is the first time in a few years that I won't be there on the Friday and I presume I will have the couch mounted with my back protector and boots on willing on Kauto to create history yet again.
Long Run will never be a better horse than Kauto, he just doesn't jump well enough or have the gears that Kauto does. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be the better horse that will win on Friday, rather the one with the bigger engine and that is Long Run.
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Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday 16th of March
Long Run, 2 points win at 2/10 -
I will wrap it up at that folks. 8 horses there ranging from large outsiders to shorties. I really should have started the thread sooner because there is plenty more analysis of races and horses that I simply didn't have time to post. An early morning run to clear the head tomorrow and it is all systems go to watch Sprinter Sacre take his place on the throne on Tuesday. I hope the post selection analysis is that bit easier with a couple of winners, and I wish the same for you all.
Be lucky,
Hunt(l)ey
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