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The Hunter Gatherer
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Realt Dubh (-1 point) ran his heart out and put up a gallant effort to go down by over 2 lengths. He was very well supported but didn't jump aswell as I expected. He did look to be mounting a challenge against Sizing Europe down the straight but he never looked like passing him, and both finished as two very tired horses. He is a very consistent animal and I am very excited about about what he can do next season.
Jesus Christ I am just happy that Mossey Joe (-4 points) is still alive. He took an absolutely horrendous fall, and I genuinely thought he was gone for a few moments. He ran a very credible race up to that point considering it was his seasonal reappearance. Only 5 turned up so my ante-post bet looked a real good prospect considering he only had to finish in the first three, and he was a shoe in for second or third before he fell. He was very keen as I was wary about and it surprised me how well he was finishing when you take account of how much he dislikes the ground. He is prone to throwing in a few howlers and he is very lucky that he came out of it today. He looked very sore passing me and I think he hurt the same leg that had delayed his season so far. Hopefully all is well and connections had planned to race him during the summer, but I'm not quite sure what their stance is now.
If the ground was good Captain Chris would murder this field tomorrow, but I'm not sure how he will fair on the conditions and won't hold my breath.
Bank: 55.63 points (+35.63 points)0 -
Huntley thank you for your positive comments about realt dubh
you are spot on in your observations - I too believe 2.5 miles is ideal
I am now convinced he needs a cut in the ground
We are considering going to Auteuil on 19th may for a valuable 2.5 furlong
french race0 -
derek sharkey wrote: »Huntley thank you for your positive comments about realt dubh
you are spot on in your observations - I too believe 2.5 miles is ideal
I am now convinced he needs a cut in the ground
We are considering going to Auteuil on 19th may for a valuable 2.5 furlong
french race
Best of luck with him for the future Derek. He put up a mighty show on Tuesday.0 -
Captain Chris (-3 points) was pulled from the Gold Cup as I somewhat anticipated. I'm a little gutted because I have every confidence that he would have murdered them on a sound surface, not to be and I'm sure connections are kicking themselves for missing the Bowl.
Bank: 52.63 points (+32.63 points)
17:05, Punchestown
Our Girl Salley
This mares contest tends to be a fairly open event and there is certainly a claim to be made for many, but I am going to side with the Ann O'Neill owned Our Girl Salley.
Prunella Dobbs only has 11 horses in training down in County Wicklow and this 7 year old is certainly the cream of the crop. She had some fantastic bumper form before connections decided to send her over obstacles last season. That transition posed little problems initially and she sluiced in on her maiden effort. She followed that with a very decent win over the progressive Shop Dj in a listed contest over 2 and a half miles on testing ground. Another listed victory ensued over similiar conditions and the yard felt Our Girl Salley had earned an attempt at the Grade 2 novice mares hurdle on the Easter weekend.
Unfortunately the mare never settled on the sound surface and was well beaten, but many thought that she was simply over the top after a long season. Her return to hurdles in open company didn't prove fruitful and she ran no sort of race at Naas last October. A step back to 2 miles also failed to enlighten the spark that Our Girl Salley had previously shown and it looked like she was certainly capable of better. However, a fantastic effort in a handicap won by Mikael D'Haguenet in early December was more in line with what many expected, and further improvement followed.
The Grade 3 Christmas mares hurdle was a very competitive affair as expected and the step back to 2 and a half miles on a sounder surface resulted in this 7 year old putting up a gallant effort to land the spoils. I always suspected she would be better suited with juice in the ground but it was riding on the slow side that day which certainly helped. The second horse that day was Stephanie Kate, a mare who I highly respect and finished close to the RSA second First Lieutenant earlier in the season. A further 3 lengths back was the Fred Winter winner What A Charm, so it was certainly a fantastic performance to give weight all around and still beat a quality field. Prunella Dobbs then decided that the Warfield Grade 2 at Ascot was the next port of call for her star mare. The trip was an unknown on that occasion but Barry Geraghty got a fantastic spin off his mount to go down to the Paul Nicholls trained Violin Davies by 2¾ lengths, despite giving the winner 5lbs.
It was always going to be a monumental task to dethrone the queen of National Hunt Quevega at Cheltenham but Our Girl Salley had strong place claims when she lined up in the David Nicholson Mares 6 weeks ago. Despite finding things a little quick this daughter of Carroll House ran a blinder, and just faded out of contention when they hit the rising ground. That 7 length defeat to Quevega wasn't a bad effort by any means and I think she has every chance to land this contest tomorrow should she reproduce a similar performance. I do think that the trip will be on the sharp side but the testing ground should compensate for that, and I do think she is better with the ease in the ground. I don't usually laud superlatives upon jockeys but Andrew Lynch is one of the very best around and he will do no harm to this animal's chances, who is actually the highest rated of the field. The Henderson 4 year old, and favourite, looks very good indeed but she had two tough races in recent succession which may just start to take it's toll. I do like the way Prunella Dobbs has sensibly campaigned her mare since the turn of the year and there is no reason why Our Girl Salley shouldn't be capable of a bold showing tomorrow.
Our Girl Salley, 1 point e/w at 8/1 (Boylesports)0 -
14:35, Sandown
Somersby
It is hard to believe that the well campaigned Somersby is only 8 but he still has enough of ability to win this Grade 2 tomorrow in my view.
Henrietta Knight's gelding is a very quirky sort, and I was actually disgusted at how poorly he ran in the Peterborough Chase last December. I had washed my hands with him on that occasion but he is just one prick of a horse who you can't get away from. Simply put, if he wants to win tomorrow then he will. His seasonal form has been a mixed bag as usual and the horse is somewhat tripless. He has raced over 2 miles to 3 miles throughout the season but has a Grade 1 win to show for it. Despite being well beaten in the King George it was a very decent effort from this bay gelding who actually looked like he was going to be in the mix up turning for home. He followed up that effort with a win in the Victor Chandler, were the form has been franked by the 2nd and since Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow. Dominic Elsworth got a fantastic tune out of his mount that day and he rallied up the inside to battle on valiantly to the line in the last furlong.
The cheekpieces which were applied that day seemed to have sharpened the horse up but Somersby reverted to his quirky self in the Ryanair next time out. He didn't jump with any fluency that day and never threatened. Connections have since revealed that he came back very stiff with pulled muscles and that he is in good form at home. I personally don't think that the ease in the ground will hurt him and he is the quality horse in the line up. Wishful Thinking needs 2 and a half miles minimum and Sanctuaire has looked like a visual beast over fences but hasn't beaten anything substantial. Furthermore, both those horses have to run with the choke firmly in or out so they very may well slit each others throats and set it up nicely for my selection. Somersby does have to give 4lbs to the field but I don't think that will be an issue if he is in good form and decides to run to the fullest of his ability, and if he does I think that he is the one they all have to beat to land this 2 mile Grade 2 prize.
Somersby, 2 points win at 3/1 (Paddy Power)0 -
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15:15, Punchestown
Quantitativeeasing
The Punchestown Gold Cup is a reflection on the Irish 3 mile chasers this year, a pretty drab affair.
It isn't often I would support a handicapper in a Grade 1 contest but the lack of a clear contender has led me to take a chance on Nicky Henderson's Quantitativeeasing. His novice season last year yielded mixed results for connections, when he placed in the Centenury handicap at Cheltenham before failing to see out the trip in the Irish National. He ran really well that day and looked a massive player turning for home, but just failed to finish off his race in the last 3 furlongs.
His seasonal debut was a very decent effort form this 7 year old in the Paddy Power in late November. He got plenty of weight that day but the form has worked out very solid from that race and it was a gutsy performance to get up for second under an average enough rider in Andrew Tinkler. A fantastic effort to win the Spinal research Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham over 2m 5f followed and the form of that race has also worked out strongly over the course of the season. After struggling to go with the pace Barry Geraghty was niggling at his mount from a mile out, but it was really eye catching to see him power up the Cheltenham hill past Medermit to land the spoils. Despite the close winning distance he won it quite snugly in the end and suggested that a step up in trip would be no harm.
Quantitativeeasing was put away for the winter and reappeared when taking his chance in the JLT handicap at Cheltenham with top weight. He was well supported into joint-favourite but never really featured and trailed in well beaten. That form doesn't look good enough to win a Grade 1 by any means and as I said, he is handicapper. However, this field looks weak to me with a couple of suspect stayers and I think that this 7 year old has the scope to improve further. He has raced on heavy ground before in lower class company and won well, so I think that he should handle these testing conditions. He doesn't have any solid form over 3 miles but he easily stayed that distance in the Irish National last year and he does finish off his races very strongly. Rubi Light looked the winner of the Lexus until after the last, when he feel into a hole somewhat and didn't inspire me with confidence that he is a genuine stayer. Quel Esprit won a very mediocre Hennessy and I think that both of them could be susceptible here over conditions that will definitely strain their staying ability. Jp McManus's horse will need to improve to win this but with conditions that I think will suit I am willing to have a selective punt that Quantitativeeasing is capable of putting in a bold showing in this Grade 1 contest.
Quantitativeeasing, 1.5 point win at 7/1 (Boylesports)0 -
Quantitativeeasing (-1.5 points) ran credibly for a while but is simply a handicapper. I was correct to take on the front two in the market but it probably was a no bet race in hindsight.
Our Girl Salley (-2 points) looked to be in with a massive shout turning for home but she just faded out of contention in the last furlong. Andrew Lynch was probably going too well on her and went too soon but she is certainly a mare that I will be keeping a close eye on for next year.
Somersby (-2 points) never had a chance to mount a challenge in this contest and was absolutely routed by the winner, despite finishing 2nd. I do think it was rather incompetent of the jockeys to leave him go 25 lengths in front before they decided to chase him down but he is certainly a character is Sanctuaire. As for people thinking he can put it up to Sprinter Sacre next year, well, any horse who runs with the choke out like that won't be winning a Champion Chase not to mind beating the new superstar of National Hunt.
Bank: 47.13 points (+27.13 points)0 -
April Review
Total number of Bets: 24
Winning Bets: 6
Losing Bets: 18
Total Points Staked: 45.63 points
Average Stake: 1.9 points
Highest Winning Stake: 2 points at 15/2
Highest Losing Stake: 4 points (2 points e/w) at 14/1
Bank: 47.13 points
Profit & Loss: +27.13 points
Return On Investment: 59.46%
My most recent effort only lasted 21 days but I am happy with how it worked out. The Return on Interest makes for very positive reading at over 59.46%, resulting in my initial outlay multiplying almost 1 and a half times.
This time of year was usually profitable as I outlined but I was extremely disappointed at how the Punchestown Festival went. I usually put away my soft ground formbook at the end of January so I was disgusted when the conditions turned up testing. My shrewd ante-post wager on Mossey Joe was nailed on for a profit until a fall at the last, and my main fancy Captain Chris was withdrawn (He would have routed that field).
A couple of nice price winners in there anyway ranging from 16/1 down to 7/4 with two out of three max bets landed. I don't make a habit of each-way bets and that will be staying the same after my 4 proved fruitless. I will have the odd selection up over the summer but I won't get back into serious punting mode until late October/early November. Counting down the days already.0 -
Twas a great log
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and well done, the write ups are a joy to read and very informative.0 -
RoverJames wrote: »Twas a great log
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and well done, the write ups are a joy to read and very informative.
Cheers James, as I told you a few moths back I would struggle to pick my nose on the flat not to mind a winner so it is probably all downhill from here with the minimal selections that I will put up.0 -
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14:00, Newmarket
Fury
I'm not a massive advocate of the flat but I do like to make money, and I think there is plenty of value about William Haggas'sFury.
After an undeafeated 2 year old season, including winning the Tattersalls Millions, Fury failed to fulfill his potential last season. After finishing dead last in his final 3 races of 2011 connections decided to get him gelded over the winter to hopefully reinvigorate this animal back into form. His seasonal appearance this year was a very promising effort in the Lincoln when he finished a close third despite the ground being on the quick side. The more softer conditions at Newbury two weeks ago certainly seemed to be in his favour and this grey put up a gallant effort to finish a very close second to Captain Bertie, a very smart horse who was getting a stone from my selection. That certainly was't Kieren Fallon's greatest moment in the saddle and he gave the horse plenty to do and it was more a case of Fury's quality carrying him through the field rather than the jockey imo.
He has since been raised 5lbs for that effort but I still think he is the classy horse in this field by some way and top weight shouldn't pose any difficulties for William Haggas's 4 year old who seems to have fell in love with the game again. He galloped strongly to the line last time out aswell so I do think the extra furlong will pay dividends should he get a clear run. The ground will have a decent bit of juice in it which he will relish and I hope it is a case of third time lucky for a horse who deserves to land this handicap. I wouldn't be the greatest of Kieren Fallon as a person but I can't fault his ability as a jockey and I can't see him making the same mistake as last time. I personal think Fury has his optimum conditions here and I hope he can give a good account of himself when making the short trip across to his local track tomorrow.
Fury, 2 points win at 5/1 (Stan James)0 -
15:10, Newmarket
Hermival
The 2000 Guineas is a minefield in punting terms but there is always one or two open to improvement that slip the radar, which is a prime example of what has happened to Hermival.
One key difficulty with the Guineas is the unpredictability about whether horses/ have trained on from 2 to 3 and how have they grown over the winter months. The French are very good at bringing along their horses slowly and thus usually have them in peak condition around this time of year before the main races get underway. Hermival is a 3 year old who has only raced twice, and while he was well held last time out by two of this field in the Prix Djebel I think he has the scope to improve further. I don't know much about the trainer apart from the fact that he trained the 2010 winner Makfi, who was given an identical preparation. He does have a very smart animal at home in Dragon Pulse aswell who is overlooked for this in preference of my selection, which hopefully means he is the one they regard as having the best chance to land this contest.
It is said that the Rowley Mile is a difficult course to navigate and the fact the jockey has little to no experience on English soil would be considered a disadvantage. However, he has won on this son of Dubawi before and as long as he doesn't try and take a turn on this straight mile he should be alright. The draw bias at Newmarket is supposedly high but we won't know what side is better until the early races, but I am pleased that he has a low draw in 4. The ease in the ground should suit my selection and I don't think he is out of the mix if he can show further improvement and ability that I think he has. This Camelot fella is touted as a future middle distance runner for many but there is plenty of speed on his Dam's side regardless, although I don't fancy him in the slightest. If Aidan O'Brien sent out a greyhound with a saddle the punters would probably back him off the boards so I just don't think his price is justified in the slightest. It is an open enough affair it seems and at the price I am willing to take the chance that this French colt can be competitive when they gallop through Cambridgeshire and Suffolk on route to the winning post. It will be 'escargot' tomorrow for dinner if Hermival can land the spoils!
Hermival, 1 point win at 20/1 (Boylesports)0 -
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I imagined it would be the profit divided by the total amount risked
Which would be 27.13 divided by 45.63 by 100% = 59.45%
Pyro is the man for the job, although I'd imagine he would have said by now if it was wrong, he's usually quick out of the stalls with this stuff.0 -
Indeed, it should be the amount generated in returning the profit which is 45.63.
I look forward to the day when I make enough to have an accountant deal with these issues. :pac:
Return on Investment
27.13 = 0.59456 x 100 = 59.46%
45.630 -
Fantastic return all the same.0
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Fury (-2 points) ran a very credible race to finish a well held third. He is probably handicapped to the hilt at this stage and he didn't really see out the trip as I expected. Probably one to keep an eye for on a soft surface in future when he is dropped a couple of pounds.
Hermival (-1 point) outran his odds of 20/1 to finish a close third aswell. The Prix Djebel turned out to be a red hot contest ti seems with French Fifteen holding the form to finish a shoulder behind Camelot, who looks a very smart prospect indeed. He was possibly on the wrong side considering the first two came from the stand side, but I'm not sure would he have won even if he was amongst that pack. He improved plenty despite pulling hard for the first furlong, and I'm sure he has another big effort in him this season be it in England or back on French soil. I don't often put a flat horse into the tracker but this fella will definitely be going in, pity that he probably won't be going off anywhere near 20/1 again though.
Bank: 44.13 points (+24.13 points)0 -
16:30 Fairyhouse
Call The Police
If the Powers Gold Cup Chase was decided on the exchanges we would have a clear winner in the Peter Casey trained Flemenstar. I am a massive fan of that horse but I think the market has got the prices wrong here, and I am siding with the impressive Willie Mullins trained Call The Police.
Call The Police had some sketchy enough hurdle form last year but his transition to fences has really brought out the best of his abilities. Despite being 9 years old he is a lightly raced sort who is relatively unexposed with only 3 chase starts to date. His debut over timber came at Gowran Park last November when he ran out an easy winner of a beginners chase over 2 miles 4 furlongs on soft going. Connections were obviously delighted with that performance and felt he was capable of contesting the Grade 2 Pj Moriarty Novice Chase.
Despite only containing 4 runners it was a strong field with his stablemate Lambro and Grade 1 winning novice Last Instalment in the line up. I certainly felt it was a massive step up in quality but the horse surprised me by putting up a gallant effort to finish within 1½ lengths of the Gigginstown winner. He travelled well throughout that day and despite being slow at a couple of fences he showed enough to warrant an entry in the RSA chase at Cheltenham.
Call The Police was upped in trip that day to 3 miles and the quick nature of the ground had many feeling things would happen a little too quickly for him. However, Paul Townend got a fantastic tune out of his mount and he finished a credible third. His jumping really impressed me that day and was much improved from his previous two outings where he seemed to dawdle over his fences. He was very quick and clever and certainly shaped like an animal who has plenty of improvement in him.
It has only been over 3 weeks since that effort so hopefully it won't have taken the edge off him when he lines up tomorrow. He handled the ground really well last time out and the reports from the course are that the ground is riding on the slow side of good which should be perfect. The step back in trip of half a mile isn't ideal but I don't think he will be totally inconvenienced by it. He showed plenty of speed in the Pj Moriarty and if he can reproduce that performance I think he has every chance to land this contest. A line through his stablemate Lambro on that outing has Flemenstar on slightly better terms although the variance in trips make that difficult to assess comprehensively. Fairyhouse is a difficult course for some horses and the fact Ruby Walsh's mount hasn't raced there before is a slight concern but I'm willing to take my chance on him. Call The Police looks a very progressive animal and if he gets the run of the race he should have a live chance of getting involved at the business end of things in this Grade 1 contest.
17:50, Punchestown
Call The Police
The postponed AON Chase takes place tomorrow and I am going to side with Call The Police again.
He really disappointed last time out and was probably feeling the effects of his RSA efforts in hindsight. That may well be the case again tomorrow but he wasn't given a hard time of it when he was beaten and I'm hoping the break since will reinvigorate him. I did think a step back up in trip was required after that effort but he must be a very speedy horse at home as this is only a furlong further. I think if he is to have any chance in this contest tomorrow he needs to be ridden more prominently by Ruby who decided to hold him up last time.
The big swing for me as to why I am siding with this 9 year old is because he is the quality animal in the race and can exceed his mark of 142. The conditions are drying out as we speak but he has handled a sound sirface before even if it isn't ideal. The yard were obviously in cracking at since Punchestown and if Call The Police can run to his true ability I think he has every chance to land this weak enough handicap.
Call The Police, 2 points win at 3/1 (Ladbrokes)0 -
19:20, Punchestown
Beckett Rock
This 15 runner handicap chase tomorrow looks an open contest by all accounts and I'm favouring the Mouse Morris trained Beckett Rock.
Beckett Rock is relatively unexposed over fences with only 7 starts to date, where he has only finished out of the money on two occasions. His most substantial chase form is probably a 9 length beating by Zaarito over 2 and a half miles, which inspired connections to let him take his chance in the Irish National back in 2010. He unseated Slippers Madden on that occasion and a 6 length beating by Chicago Grey over 2 and a half miles again was his most recent stint over timber.
He has been kept hurdling ever since where he has struggled to overcome a mark in the low 130's, but he hasn't been racing on suitable conditions by any means. Out of Presenting this gelding was always going to prefer the top of the ground which he surprisingly hasn't seen much of. He ran a very credible third to Bertie's Dream in Thurles last month when he was given a very easy time of it by Ben Dalton. The ground was very quick that day which he relished but the heavy nature of Punchestown two weeks ago didn't suit in the slightest and he was pulled up in a handicap.
Mouse Morris is prone to a hit a miss system with his animals but I think he has finally got the right conditions for Beckett Rock tomorrow. Despite the majority of his hurdling form being over staying distances he never raced over 3 miles when chasing. He showed to be a sound enough jumper but has the tendency to sky his fences, although it is better that he clears them than dragging his hind legs through. This full brother to Niche Market has plenty of scope for improvement at 8, and like his brother, he may just start to come into his own in his later years. Andrew Lynch gets the leg up tomorrow and no doubt he will give the horse every chance to show his true ability if he is up to the task. He is also racing off a 6lbs lower mark than his previous endeavour over timber nearly two years ago so I am quietly confident that Beckett Rock may have slipped under the radar here at a big price.
Beckett Rock, 0.75 point win at 25/1 (Ladbrokes)0 -
Infuriating. That last fence at Punchestown has become my nemesis over the last two weeks.
Call The Police (-2 points) was well supported into 2/1 favourite. The rain overnight aided him greatly and he cruised into the lead coming up the straight and I was calculating my earnings already. He took a bad fall at the last to leave me open mouthed and somewhat disgusted considering the poor form I have been in.
Beckett Rock (-0.75 points) didn't get his conditions as I expected and was never really put into the race. He didn't actually jump that bad and is one to keep an eye on for me next year when he gets favourable conditions.
Bank: 42.38 points (+22.38 points)0 -
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17:40, Clonmel
JacksonsLady
Philip Dempsey is more involved in the breeding industry down in Kildare but I think that his stable star JacksonsLady has a fair chance in this 2 mile 1 furling maiden contest.
The clear favourite for this race is Rebel Fitz who is a very classy horse who is a very classy horse in his own right. Micheal Winters thinks plenty of this animal and his 7 year old has plenty of scope to make a fabulous chaser this season. However, I don't think that he is value at such a short price with the soft ground not in his favour. JacksonsLady won a couple of weak hurdle races alst year and after being put away for the summer she ran credibly on return at Dundalk in late February. She was beaten 5 lengths by the decent mare Shop Dj over 2 miles and connections decided that a step back in trip to 11 furlongs was the next port of call. That decision almost payed dividends but she went down by over a length just a week later and the trainer felt they would take their chances on the NH scene again.
A 5 week hiatus followed and I was quite surprised to see JacksonsLady entered in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting. Barry Geraghty got a fantastic tune out of her that day and despite getting weight all around it was a very inspiring effort to beat home some decent animals in getting third. The ground had plenty of give in it that day and I think that just might be what this mare needs to show her best form. The very capable Pat Smullen gets the leg up here and with a 5lbs swing from the market leader I think JacksonsLady could be most suited by the conditions.
JacksonsLady, 1 point win at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)0 -
JacksonsLady (-1 point) was well supported into 5/1 but could only get 3rd. Rebel Fitz was too good and simply ran away from them and he is definitely one to keep a close eye on when they send him over timber.
Bank: 41.38 points (+21.38 points)0 -
I meant to get this up earlier but haven't had a chance so apologies if this goes tits up on the phone.17:30, Punchestown
Realt Dubh
The Gold Cup on Wednesday was the initial aim for Realt Dubh but with the conditions changing it is a possibility that he will line up tomorrow in the Irish Champion Chase depending on how things pan out tonight.
Derek Sharkey's 8 year old had a fantastic novice season last year when kick started it with an impressive victory over the New Zealand bred Sweeps Hill. After falling in a Grade 3 contest when going well he bounced back to form when winning the Grade 2 Craddockstown in November 2010. He was well held in the Drinmore next time out when the subsequent RSA 2nd Jessie's Dream beat him well by 5 lengths. Realt Dubh's next two outings came in Grade 1 contests on testing conditions over 2 miles, and he won both beating off Paul Nolan's Noble Prince consecutively. That horse, who is coincidentally owned by Derek Sharkey's father Des, franked the form when he won the Jewson in March 2011.
It was always known that the horse is better on good ground and it was an impressive effort to finish third in the Arkle, despite seemingly being outpaced. A step up in trip for the Fairyhouse Gold Cup proved decisive when he ran out an 11 length over the decent yardstick Loosen My Load. Realt Dubh was then narrowly beaten in the Ryanair Novice at Punchestown by the Arkle winner Captain Chris, but it certainly didn't put any dampener on an amazing season for connections.
An injury since put this year on the backburner for this 8 year old until he reappeared at Cheltenham 6 weeks ago. He was never going to be suited by the Champion Chase trip but was certainly entitled to take his chance given the lack of competition for place money. He was outpaced fairly quickly in that contest but Paul Carberry sensibly let him do his own thing and he shouldn't feel the effects of that effort. Noel Meade's gelding's prime trip is 2 and a half miles, but unfortunately there is no race of that stature at Punchestown. I would be very dubious whether he would stay 3m 1f on testing ground and think that the 2 mile contest would suit more under the conditions. He would prefer better going but acts on anything and his staying power will certainly be an advantage over the genuine 2 milers. Sizing Europe is the best animal in the race but he never seems to perform to his best at this stage of the season and he is certainly oppossable at the price. Paul Carberry will get a fantastic spin off Realt Dubh anyway and I will settle for him to come back in one piece, because he will be a serious Ryanair contender next season if he stays sound.
Realt Dubh, 1 point win at 16/1 (Boylesports)
15:35, Killarney
Realt Dubh
Realt Dubh is going in a valuable enough handicap in Killarney today. I have no doubt he is going to a 160+ rated animal next year and if he can't overcome his hurdle mark of 135 I will be disgusted. The trip is a little on the short side but the ground is riding on the slow side of good and I think he is the one they all have to beat.
Realt Dubh, 4 points at 9/4 (Paddy Power)0 -
I meant to get this up earlier but haven't had a chance so apologies if this goes tits up on the phone.17:30, Punchestown
Realt Dubh
Realt Dubh, 1 point win at 16/1 (Boylesports)
15:35, Killarney
Realt Dubh
Realt Dubh is going in a valuable enough handicap in Killarney today. I have no doubt he is going to a 160+ rated animal next year and if he can't overcome his hurdle mark of 135 I will be disgusted. The trip is a little on the short side but the ground is riding on the slow side of good and I think he is the one they all have to beat.
Realt Dubh, 4 points at 9/4 (Paddy Power)
This looks like serious value...id put my house on it if I had the money in my hand. Didn't even realise he was racing today.
Id like to think it should be a slam dunk For Realt dubh!0 -
I meant to get this up earlier but haven't had a chance so apologies if this goes tits up on the phone.
Realt Dubh, 4 points at 9/4 (Paddy Power)
This looks like serious value...id put my house on it if I had the money in my hand. Didn't even realise he was racing today.
Id like to think it should be a slam dunk For Realt dubh!
Glad I didn't remortgage the house . What happened just seen the result? Out of the top 4 is all I can see0 -
He just never got into it Ste, obviously feeling the effects of Punchestown but it happens.
Realt Dubh didn't go a yard in Killarney and trailed in well beaten. He obviously felt the effects of a tough race last time out but that's just how it goes sometimes. Looking forward to next season with him anyway.
Bank: 37.38 (+17.38 points)0 -
14:30, York
Fencing
Fencing was a highly thought of animal by John Gosden last season who looks the type to improve further. He was well beaten in the Racingpost trophy by Camelot and that form wasn't reversed when they lined up in the 2000 Guineas two weeks ago. However, William Buick got a fantastic spin off his colt and ran in a very credible 6th. As I said he was always going to be suited by further and I think the 10 furlong trip should bring out more progression. It is obviously a competitive affair but I'm going to take a chance that Fencing has improved for the run and will hopefully go close in this Derby trial for connections.
Fencing, 1 point win at 5/1 (BetVictor)0 -
Fencing (-1 point) pulled hard for the first three furlongs and that was probably his undoing. He travelled strongly into contention but just failed to land a blow when asked.
Bank: 36.38 points (+16.38 points)
Still no winner on the flat, time to blow this up I think until October.0 -
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16:05, Epsom
Vow
Last bet for the summer here and Vow is a filly who I have been looking forward to since she started her short career in April.
Willaim Haggas's 3 year old has obviously taken a while to come to fruition but has shown to have plenty of ability. Her maiden contest at Newbury over 10 furlongs was an eye catching performance even if it didn't look like it was going to plan. Johnny Murtagh settled her out the back that day and despite never travelling well throughout she powered up the straight after being under a strong drive for a long way out. I think the soft ground didn't suit that day and she certainly improved for the run next time out in an Oaks trial at Lingfield.
Lingfield is a very tight track and Vow still looked very green when she lined up here 3 weeks ago. She was ridden more prominently that day and seemed to appreciate the extra two furlongs. She got a shake of the reins turning for home and it was really impressive the way she kicked off the bend, but it looked like she was in trouble when she started the drift badly down the straight. However, once Murtagh straightened her up she found another gear to win very cosily indeed.
Despite being very unexposed and potentially still a green type I think Vow has the profile to be an Oaks winner. She has a lovely rangy stride and I think there is further improvement to come from this 3 year old. There is obviously a question mark over her ability to handle an undulating course like Epsom but I think she will have learned plenty from that experience at Lingfield, which is essentially why connections went there in the first place. It is massive positive that Johnny is getting the leg up here again on a filly who he seems to think plenty of. There is obviously plenty of other quality animals lining up with the O'Brien second string looking like the big danger to me. I believe that if Vow has matured enough to handle the conditions then she will certainly be a massive contender in this Grade 1 Classic.
Vow, 4 points win at 5/1 (Paddy Power)0
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