France V Ireland – Stade de France, Paris. Sunday 4th March 15:00 RTE2 & BBC2

andrewdcs

BoardsMember wrote: »

I fail to see why anyone would think we could win in Paris. I think Scotland is our best (and maybe our only realistic) chance of winning another game, England in Twickenham is going to be very difficult unless we improve dramatically, assuming England continue to make progress as they have been doing.

Sorry, I'm a pessimist by nature, but it's only a self protection thing - I'll believe we can win at kick off time. As someone once said....I can cope with the despair, its the hope that kills me.

Beating scotland and italy at home and losing everything else, as you fear, would be a disaastrous season, way worse than either of the past 2, which, ok, no GS (or little golden cup) and we're dropping perilously low in the rankings, but I still think we're touching distance and that last position I'd switch (ok, perhaps not the last) would be Kidney.

smurphy29

Podge_irl wrote: »

Do you know when that was? wouldn't mind listening to it if possible.

'Twould have been the 8pm Wednesday night rugby slot on the wednesday before the original France game ws scheduled.

Podge_irl

andrewdcs wrote: »

Beating scotland and italy at home and losing everything else, as you fear, would be a disaastrous season

Two wins was enough to get EOS fired anyway.

way worse than either of the past 2, which, ok, no GS (or little golden cup) and we're dropping perilously low in the rankings, but I still think we're touching distance and that last position I'd switch (ok, perhaps not the last) would be Kidney.

EOS never led Ireland to two succesive 6N with only 3 wins. This is also the longest we've gone without a TC in quite some time.

Grimebox

prospect wrote: »

Average points difference per game between Ireland and France: -4.87

That statistic is actually not as bad as I thought it would be.

leftleg

Podge_irl wrote: »

Two wins was enough to get EOS fired anyway.

EOS and Kidney are completely different; just ask Thornley

smurphy29

andrewdcs wrote: »

Afraid I agreed with Emmet Byrne but still think its 40% chance, so agree with Thornley..

And yes, my ass is killing me from sitting on / leaning over the fence :pac: but I do still believe.

If we're beaten and beaten by either of scotland or England its a disastre of season on the back of lacklustre year, I think we'll run France close / flip a coin to win it and win both our remaining games for a disappointing (if you ever lose a home game its dissapointing) but not critical season.

If we win in Paris, and lose either of the remaining games, still dissapointing, but if we win the next three its what ifs, blah blah. It's that close. It always is.

40%, I'm astonished! So if the game was played five times, you think we'd win two. Bear in mind we have won once in Paris in the last 40 years, aren't in especially good form, and don't appear to be dominant in any particular unit on the pitch. I'd say if you played out the match on Sunday 100 times we'd be doing well to win five of them.

Podge_irl

Grimebox wrote: »

That statistic is actually not as bad as I thought it would be.

Probably seriously skewed by our games against France when they first joined the Home Nations to make it the 5N.

We've also had plenty of close games at home despite losing.

smurphy29

It might be more pertinent to look at a more recent sample of results from our trips to Paris:

2000: 27-25 W
2002: 5-44 L
2004: 17-35 L
2006: 31-43 L
2008: 21-26 L
2010: 10-33 L

Average points spread 16 in France's favour. We generally struggle to handle them.

CatFromHue

smurphy29 wrote: »

'Twould have been the 8pm Wednesday night rugby slot on the wednesday before the original France game ws scheduled.

http://www.newstalk.ie/programmes/all/offtheball/podcasts/

rugby on off the ball

8/2/2012 show

irishbucsfan

smurphy29 wrote: »

It might be more pertinent to look at a more recent sample of results from our trips to Paris:

2000: 27-25 W
2002: 5-44 L
2004: 17-35 L
2006: 31-43 L
2008: 21-26 L
2010: 10-33 L

Average points spread 16 in France's favour. We generally struggle to handle them.

Yeah but were "the lads" ever "really gunning" for it in any of those games?

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yeah but were "the lads" ever "really gunning" for it in any of those games?

Sure they'll be fine, they're really "buzzing" for it this time.

andrewdcs

smurphy29 wrote: »

It might be more pertinent to look at a more recent sample of results from our trips to Paris:

2008: 21-26 L
2010: 10-33 L

These are the only two 6 nations ones that have a real bearing, given team members playing, and the games last season (3 defeats, but none by much)

On the other hand chances of one team "running riot" are far far higher for France than us, but chances of a very close game are higher in my useless opinion.
Truth is we are very close to the second best team in the world at the moment. Problem is so are many teams in the 6 nations.

So my prediction is France 23 - 27 Ireland 2012 6 Nations in a classic.

I will naturally return shamefaced to this post in a few days after a "traditional" 30 point spread

andrewdcs

andrewdcs wrote: »

Truth is we are very close to the second best team in the world at the moment.

Christ on a ****ing Bike.

irishbucsfan

Kassandra Slimy Catfish wrote: »

andrewdcs wrote: »

Truth is we are very close to the second best team in the world at the moment.

Christ on a ****ing Bike.

Can only imagine he is posting from some future world where Joe Schmidt is head coach?

4PP

Don't know if this has been mentioned earlier but the SdF is officially sold out for Sunday.

The FFR got approx 9000 tickets back from all sources & has sold the lot.

Ardillaun

From Conor O'Shea's RTE column:

'The key for Ireland is quell the French at the start and try to bring their superior fitness into play. The longer the game goes on, the stronger Ireland will get.'

Is 'their' i.e. our (I think) superior fitness an established fact? The French forwards are fairly lean.

GerM

Ardillaun wrote: »

From Conor O'Shea's RTE column:

'The key for Ireland is quell the French at the start and try to bring their superior fitness into play. The longer the game goes on, the stronger Ireland will get.'

Is 'their' i.e. our (I think) superior fitness an established fact? The French forwards are fairly lean.

Nah. I think you'll find that players like Dusautoir, Harinordoquy and Szarzewski are notoriously out of shape.

To be honest, our forwards are ridiculously fit, particularly Heaslip and POC who seem to find another gear in the last 10 minutes when others are wavering but France's pack aren't exactly lacking in that area and they'll also use their entire bench to freshen things up. Dusautoir is quite likely to be the single fittest man in world rugby. We'll have no distinct advantage there at all I'd have thought.

irishbucsfan

Id imagine Ouedraogo is the fittest man in world rugby but I woukdnt say anyone in that French pack is far behind. Plus..... Mike Ross.....

Tox56

On a slightly related note, is there anything Dusautoir can't do? He's a complete freak.

danthefan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Id imagine Ouedraogo is the fittest man in world rugby but I woukdnt say anyone in that French pack is far behind. Plus..... Mike Ross.....

Ouedraogo often looks completely out on his feet at the end of a tough game, dunno if it's fitness or just sheer willpower that keeps him going. His workrate is insane though.

profitius

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Id imagine Ouedraogo is the fittest man in world rugby but I woukdnt say anyone in that French pack is far behind. Plus..... Mike Ross.....

The reason for that is Quedraogo is just over 15st. Lighter than the majority of forwards.

Richie McCaw is (or was) one of the fittest forwards in the world. They were tracking him over a match and I think his workrate was 50% higher than George Smith at the time. McCaw is just under 17st.

JRant

Speaking of Emmet Byrne IMHO he's one of the best pundits around. Always gives excellent technical analysis and is not afraid to critique players.

ray jay

Otacon wrote: »

Even after reading all that, I still do not know what O'Shea's opinion is of the Irish squad selection. The only real opinion he shares is that we need to be aggressive at the breakdown and Picomoles should be starting.

He also more or less said that if Ireland employs a kicking game, it would suit the French because of how good their back 3 are at counter attacking. Someone posted in another thread that we kicked 32 times against the Welsh. Things do not bode well for this match.

leftleg

Wonder how many times well see this on Sunday.

JustinDee

leftleg wrote: »

Wonder how many times well see this tmw.

None.
Game is on Sunday.

irishbucsfan

Earls is a very good defender. I think those who constantly suggest he isn't should actually watch him rather than jump to criticise him. His pace/acceleration lets him really close down space and he hits hard. Id say playing with/watching Dougy Howlett has really helped him. Which is great because he was provably the worst defender in the 2010 6N, now I have absolutely no worries at all.

dub_skav

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Earls is a very good defender. I think those who constantly suggest he isn't should actually watch him rather than jump to criticise him. His pace/acceleration lets him really close down space and he hits hard. Id say playing with/watching Dougy Howlett has really helped him. Which is great because he was provably the worst defender in the 2010 6N, now I have absolutely no worries at all.

Learning from howlett would be very good for him in his best position of wing, but people are not convinced by him at centre. Quite rightly in my opinion

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Earls is a very good defender. I think those who constantly suggest he isn't should actually watch him rather than jump to criticise him. His pace/acceleration lets him really close down space and he hits hard. Id say playing with/watching Dougy Howlett has really helped him. Which is great because he was provably the worst defender in the 2010 6N, now I have absolutely no worries at all.

France will provide some test for him in any case.

BoardsMember

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Earls is a very good defender. I think those who constantly suggest he isn't should actually watch him rather than jump to criticise him. His pace/acceleration lets him really close down space and he hits hard. Id say playing with/watching Dougy Howlett has really helped him. Which is great because he was provably the worst defender in the 2010 6N, now I have absolutely no worries at all.

Tell Tuilagi that, maybe he'll fall over the next time Earls doesnt get near him.

Ok, so that was one glaring error Earls made, it does not make him a bad defender per se. But I thinkt he jury is still out, defending at 13 against international class backlines is the hardest, and we dont know enough about him at that level to say if he's able for it. My guy tells me he's not, but we'll see.

irishbucsfan

France will provide a test for any center. Ask Gordon D'Arcy.

He probably still has a lot to learn about defending at 13 but he's no turnstile. He'd definitely have been my choice at 13 for this championship given the absence of Cave and BOD.

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

France will provide a test for any center. Ask Gordon D'Arcy.

He probably still has a lot to learn about defending at 13 but he's no turnstile. He'd definitely have been my choice at 13 for this championship given the absence of Cave and BOD.

This is the part that really is so disappointing. I would have been fascinated to see whether Kidney would have selected Earls or Cave had both been available.

Right now he has a free reign, but it would have been very interesting to see what he would have done. You would hope Cave would have been a certainty but..

thomond2006

jm08

thomond2006 wrote: »

:eek: The boardies will be sticking pins in a Liam Toland vodoo doll when they see that he says that Sean O'brien should be dropped for Peter O'Mahoney.

Balancing the numbers in Ireland's backrow

LIAM TOLAND

RUGBY ANALYST: Lessons from the Scots on how to beat France – move the point of contact, target the blindside and survive the opening mayhem

AS “I walk through the long schoolroom questioning” what’s the best team to take the pitch this Sunday, I’m reminded of William Butler Yeats’s Among School Children. My eyes soon land on the starting number seven and his young colleague at nine and ask “Are you the leaf, the blossom or the bole?”

Seán O’Brien is certainly no leaf or blossom but fits the description of the “bole”. Conor Murray must be all three. As the trunk of a tree O’Brien is crucial to Ireland’s chances in Paris but when asked last Monday by Matt Cooper I suggested that Jamie Heaslip could play at seven. Was this mad? Maybe just a tad. Neither O’Brien nor Heaslip are suited to the openside shirt but as we’ll witness on Sunday neither are Thierry Dusautoir, Julien Bonnaire or Imanol Harinordoquy (France’s starting seven last week).

In essence it matters not a jot. So how do the French get into a World Cup final and lose by just a point without a true tear-away? How have they beaten Italy and Scotland with Bonnaire and Harinordoquay at seven?

For a start they don’t play the traditional role of seven and are judged accordingly.

The best openside in Ireland in terms of running lines, defensive positioning and control at the tail, breakdown work and, most importantly, with an openside’s instinct, is Shane Jennings. He has been unable to secure a starting slot.

The next best is certainly Dominic Ryan, who is at the crossroads of his development, possibly followed by Niall Ronan.

Peter O’Mahony will make a world class openside, with technical ability matched with the brain and attitude to redefine how we view this position. So why not start him?

The arrival of the cerebral Anthony Foley should not be lost on the backrow. Number eights require a rugby brain which allows them control team tempo. Foley is bursting with a rugby brain. I’m not sure O’Brien is that type of player and I would be very careful not to overload his tasks by putting him into eight. Heaslip is not Foley, nor is Stephen Ferris.

I would love to have been at Foley’s first talk with his Irish backrow. Leadership from eight is not built on constant talking but real leadership: direction and most of all judgment. Thus Heaslip is best placed. O’Mahony at seven and Ferris at six means O’Brien would miss out.

Our judgment of O’Brien at seven must be adjusted as he is not a seven, which doesn’t prevent him from being outstanding on Sunday, but don’t expect a Sam Warburton performance. A traditional seven has a million things to do which are constantly being adjusted. If France go off the top his defensive line is crucial, if they go into midfield quickly to get centres Aurelien Rougerie and Wesley Fofana flat in attack he is crucial. If the Irish midfield slow or stop them he is crucial at the breakdown. Beyond that there are a million permutations, and that’s just in defence.

In attack they build again, providing the link between the swift-off-the-deck ball ahead of the scrumhalf, trailing of the ball carrier and much, much more. It is a position of judgment and instinct, constantly reading the ever evolving situation of others. Hence seven is the most restrictive position on the pitch. O’Brien simply can’t do all that and do what you want him to do as well. Accept it!

And in accepting this we must also accept Heaslip is not the same player with O’Brien at seven. His natural game is diluted to cater for deficiencies in O’Brien’s openside game. Accept that also.

Hence Ferris is the only player picked in his natural position so he continues to shine while the other two appear to struggle.

Murray deserves to start on Sunday based on his many attributes. However, I’ve been long asking how he will balance the trenches with team tactics. Fuel was added with Eoin Reddan’s arrival on the pitch against Italy. Reddan appears much more comfortable in his skin, where he does X, followed by Y, which will result in Z.

However with age, experience and a winning formula (Wasps and Leinster) he knows if the X and Y method doesn’t net Z then he can change the letters, knowing his team-mates will expect this, believe in him and react accordingly. Murray is learning this, as are his team-mates of him. Reddan is more likely to keep the bigger picture in view, facilitating those around him, most notably Jonathan Sexton and his backrow.

As Yeats might put it, Murray’s challenge for Sunday is, “O body swayed to music, O brightening glance/ How can we know the dancer from the dance?”

While Murray and co will dance around Stade de France, physicality brought Scotland 17 French turnovers. The French were badly exposed by an improving Scottish outfit. But the biggest lesson from Scotland was their ability to keep the ball away from French contact and but for errors they would have won.

Lessons – move the point of contact, target the blindside and survive the opening mayhem.

With that in mind I can understand the extra lineout specialist Bonnaire being included, not to mention a massive increase in backrow work-rate, with Louis Picamoles to be launched as the Irish tire.

Watch the French midfield off their lineout! We’ve very little knowledge of Fofana at 12 for France but his lines are powerful and for a smallish fella his core strength is incredible and, as France like to cut the ball behind decoy forwards, he will do damage, as can his outhalf Francois Trinh-Duc.

We know what Dusautoir can do in the counter-ruck but if you question the value of a tough tackle followed by a counter scramble along the deck watch Paul O’Connell tackling Italian supremo Sergio Parisse on 45 minutes and 15 seconds. On the far touchline Parisse carried into traffic and O’Connell stopped him dead. Not content with that he lowered his body height, dragged his knuckles along the ground inches above the felled Parisse and pumped his legs, propelling him into the Italian side of the breakdown. A poorly-placed ball bobbled and O’Connell snaffled it, allowing the Irish backline to take off, with Ferris breaking the Italian midfield, offloading to Tommy Bowe before Andrea Masi scuppered a certain try.

More again please. As ever I have great hope and optimism for Ireland on Sunday and leave you with Yeats.

“Labour is blossoming or dancing where/ the body is not bruised to pleasure soul.”

jm08

Tox56 wrote: »

This is the part that really is so disappointing. I would have been fascinated to see whether Kidney would have selected Earls or Cave had both been available.

Right now he has a free reign, but it would have been very interesting to see what he would have done. You would hope Cave would have been a certainty but..

I doubt if he would have brought Cave into the team in such a key position with a week's preparation going into a major tournament. Cave hasn't been with the team this season so he would have had an awful lot to catch up with in a week.

siltirocker

jm08 wrote: »

:eek: The boardies will be sticking pins in a Liam Toland vodoo doll when they see that he says that Sean O'brien should be dropped for Peter O'Mahoney.

No problem with that. POM will be a better 7 than SOB will ever be. SOB IMO is still the better player but not a 7.

If Sean O'Brien wants to start for Ireland he must displace Ferris or Heaslip at 6 or 8. It's like this ROG at 10 and Sexton at 12 malark. Even though there are literally a dozen players in Ireland better at 12 than Sexton. People are just desperate to have the BIG names on the sheet.

CatFromHue

siltirocker wrote: »

No problem with that. POM will be a better 7 than SOB will ever be. SOB IMO is still the better player but not a 7.

If Sean O'Brien wants to start for Ireland he must displace Ferris or Heaslip at 6 or 8. It's like this ROG at 10 and Sexton at 12 malark. Even though there are literally a dozen players in Ireland better at 12 than Sexton. People are just desperate to have the BIG names on the sheet.

This may or may not be so but how come POM only got game time at 7 after Ronan got injured. I think Tommy O Donnell has more game time at 7 for Munster this season than POM.

irishbucsfan

Toland says Jennings, Ronan and Ryan are better than O'Mahoney but says start O'Mahoney. He says Reddan is better than Murray but start Murray.

I can understand the logic behind both. Pick the young guys and develop them. Kidney has absolutely no intention of doing this though, so we have to approach the game from the perspective of putting our best XV out. And I don't think Murray, O'Mahoney or DOC are part of our best XV.

I appreciate the idea of starting Murray and waiting to actually play rugby until the 55th minute but I think were far too good to be doing that in this day and age, its a thoroughly Italian approach. I would be from the Alan Quinlan school of Eoin Reddan is the best scrum half in Ireland, therefore he should be Irelands scrum half.

BoardsMember

Cave had no chance of getting anywhere near the team. Since DK has been manager, every time BOD was unavailable and Earls was available, Earls has started. He has no intention of playing anyone else there.

Rattlehead_ie

Opinion, could you put Ferris back into the 2nd row with POC, Allowing SOB to go back to 6 and then you would have POM at 7!

Tox56

Rattlehead_ie wrote: »

Opinion, could you put Ferris back into the 2nd row with POC, Allowing SOB to go back to 6 and then you would have POM at 7!

Can't, knees.

Rattlehead_ie

Tox56 wrote: »

Can't, knees.

Is that an educated guess or something that has been said by IRFU medical?

I know that a lot of the 2nd row involves the push in scrums, hell I played between there and LH for 15 yrs, but surely at this level of professional game, if his knees and body are capable of taking a hit from HairyDonkey his knees are fit enough to be in the 2nd ronw.

jm08

BoardsMember wrote: »

Cave had no chance of getting anywhere near the team. Since DK has been manager, every time BOD was unavailable and Earls was available, Earls has started. He has no intention of playing anyone else there.

Cave has been injured (out for most of last season). brian o'd has missed very few international games in the last 2 years ( poc was out injured and sexton was starting so losing poc, bod & rog and starting a rookie centre with a rookie outhalf might not be the best plan).

anyone know how long is cave out for?

leftleg

Kurts Analysis

http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/sixnations/2012/0302/mcquilkink_sixnations.html

No mention of the SH issue what so ever;

jm08

Rattlehead_ie wrote: »

Opinion, could you put Ferris back into the 2nd row with POC, Allowing SOB to go back to 6 and then you would have POM at 7!

he has said himself he isn't going there. he might be a bit small for an international lock - the average height seems to have gone up to about 6ft 7"/8 ". ferris is 6'4".

Tox56

jm08 wrote: »

Cave has been injured (out for most of last season). brian o'd has missed very few international games in the last 2 years ( poc was out injured and sexton was starting so losing poc, bod & rog and starting a rookie centre with a rookie outhalf might not be the best plan).

anyone know how long is cave out for?

This is our problem. Do we have 1 player at a time get a chance? England started a rookie 8, 9, 10, 12 and inexperienced 13 and should have beaten Wales.

Playing a "rookie" 10 + 13 (which Sexton no longer is) would not have been "pushing the boundaries" or anything, especially with someone like D'Arcy in at 12.

leftleg

yep gotta love the rookie outhalf comment

Rattlehead_ie

Rattlehead_ie wrote: »

Is that an educated guess or something that has been said by IRFU medical?

I know that a lot of the 2nd row involves the push in scrums, hell I played between there and LH for 15 yrs, but surely at this level of professional game, if his knees and body are capable of taking a hit from HairyDonkey his knees are fit enough to be in the 2nd ronw.

he has no cartilage in his knee.

We actually do have a poster, perfectly qualified to discuss it, but he hasn't been on in a bit. jacothelad is an Ulster fan and a physician to boot.

leftleg

leftleg wrote: »

yep gotta love the rookie outhalf comment

2 HEC medals = a rookie ?

leftleg

the rookie centre must be D'arcy as well :pac:

CatFromHue

leftleg wrote: »

Kurts Analysis

http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/sixnations/2012/0302/mcquilkink_sixnations.html

No mention of the SH issue what so ever;

2. Defence: The Italians caught the Irish defence out in the wider channels on a couple of occassions from phase play and created a couple of 2 v 1 and 3 v 1 situations.

Had the pass execution been of a higher standard, their final points tally of 10 points could have been considerably bigger. Again, the very fluid French attack on home soil will convert these opportunities into points if offered to them.

Matt Williams and Franno have been highlighting this for a while on The Breakdown, certainly against Italy there were many chances to highlight. If you think back to the Italians try they had a 5 or so man overlap.