Varadkar to Irish Electorate: Vote Yes or else...

uberalles

Varadkar comes across as a smug to me. Dont like him.

Doc Ruby

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Dead right. That's only one part of it - we'd need to see signs of recovery here and across the Eurozone to have any hope, which is why I put the odds so low.

Yeah, its a bit like this:

Investor: well what I want to know is can I depend on getting my money back from you.

Irish government: Sure, we'll pay you back! We'll pay everyone back! We'll even pay back people we don't owe money to! In fact we're paying back more to them than the guys we actually owe! Even though we're spending more than we make by tens of billions every year! Feckit we just lamped a half million at some civil war in the Middle East!!
*slight dribble of saliva forms at side of IGs mouth*

Investor: but how can you do that, all the savings and tax increases you're applying are being eaten up by repayments on the loans to cover the deficit? Which is a bit...

Irish government now staring intently at investor's left ear: A bit what? The global economy will pick up soon and we can get right back to making money by looking at the walls of our houses! Soft landing! A bit what you say?

Investor: Nothing nothing...
*backs away slowly without making any sudden movements*

Monty Burnz

uberalles wrote: »

Varadkar comes across as a smug to me. Dont like him.

Who would win in a smug-off between him and Pearse Doherty?

Paparazzo

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Who would win in a smug-off between him and Pearse Doherty?

If you want smug, look at Sean Sherlocks picture on his homepage. Think it's the same as his twitter picture. Really has a face you'd love to slap.

tfitzgerald

spank_inferno wrote: »

I was happy to vote yes on the merits of the question asked.

Its the lies and scaremongering that turn me to the dark / no side.

The Same goes for me too .

RachaelVO

The biggest problem with Varadkar coming out with this is the face that, yeah the ECB/EU might not want to give us more bailout money, that just means we've not money to pay them back (twice technically). But what he's also failing to mention is that we're not solely reliant on ECB/EU, there is also the big wigs in the IMF, who says they won't renegotiate the bail out? Indications are that they would, and that we could get a more favourable deal from them.

Look at Iceland, they got funds only from the IMF and they're back on the bond market now!

It's not all bad if the result is NO

daltonmd

Doc Ruby wrote: »

Yeah, its a bit like this:

Investor: well what I want to know is can I depend on getting my money back from you.

Irish government: Sure, we'll pay you back! We'll pay everyone back! We'll even pay back people we don't owe money to! In fact we're paying back more to them than the guys we actually owe! Even though we're spending more than we make by tens of billions every year! Feckit we just lamped a half million at some civil war in the Middle East!!
*slight dribble of saliva forms at side of IGs mouth*

Investor: but how can you do that, all the savings and tax increases you're applying are being eaten up by repayments on the loans to cover the deficit? Which is a bit...

Irish government now staring intently at investor's left ear: A bit what? The global economy will pick up soon and we can get right back to making money by looking at the walls of our houses! Soft landing! A bit what you say?

Investor: Nothing nothing...
*backs away slowly without making any sudden movements*

Rofl - thank you for making me laugh so hard that tears fell from my eyes, they turned to hysterical tears when I realised you summed up exactly what we did in that post!

Zebra3

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Ok, so how do you see us managing the default? How do we balance the budget overnight? Who takes the big hits? How much do we slash pensions and the dole?

Any suggestions? Again, I reckon that the dole and pensions should be cut by 40% or so.

The whole social welfare system has to be reformed.

At the moment every payment is dealt with seperately which means some people are getting a nice lifestyle for doing FA that is being paid by those who actually work.

Child benefit going up after two kids? Joke.

Couple earning €70k a year getting child support? Joke.

PS workers who have job security that private sector workers could only dream of will have to take a lower wage to reflect that benefit.

The whole political gravy train will have to be culled. Expenses, obscene salaries, bloated and early pensions-cheerio. Seanad abolished, TD numbers cut by 50%, abolition/merger of loads of councils.

New criminal legislation will have to be brought in to deal with cronyism with regard to contracts paid for by the taxpayer. Minimum jail term of five years for those found guilty.

We must default. Borrowing to pay for infrastructural improvements is one thing, but borrowing to pay the pensions of our political parasites is unacceptable.

We can't keep borrowing as we can't afford to repay what we owe.

But there is no political will to take responsibility for this.

Monty Burnz

Zebra3 wrote: »

But there is no political will to take responsibility for this.

Exactly - people want everything to carry on as before somehow, even though the growth from 2000 or so was a pure illusion. And none of the political parties have the balls to tell the truth - FG and Labour keeping the Croke Park agreement and barely touching SW, and SF and the ULA pretending there's loads of money out there just waiting to be taxed. FF are of course beneath comment and contempt.

daltonmd

Zebra3 wrote: »

The whole social welfare system has to be reformed.

At the moment every payment is dealt with seperately which means some people are getting a nice lifestyle for doing FA that is being paid by those who actually work.

Child benefit going up after two kids? Joke.

Couple earning €70k a year getting child support? Joke.

PS workers who have job security that private sector workers could only dream of will have to take a lower wage to reflect that benefit.

The whole political gravy train will have to be culled. Expenses, obscene salaries, bloated and early pensions-cheerio. Seanad abolished, TD numbers cut by 50%, abolition/merger of loads of councils.

New criminal legislation will have to be brought in to deal with cronyism with regard to contracts paid for by the taxpayer. Minimum jail term of five years for those found guilty.

We must default. Borrowing to pay for infrastructural improvements is one thing, but borrowing to pay the pensions of our political parasites is unacceptable.

We can't keep borrowing as we can't afford to repay what we owe.

But there is no political will to take responsibility for this.

As I said, all of this will happen, but here's the thing - it won't be a political decision - they won't have a choice either it will be forced on them/us by the troika.

uberalles

Zebra3 wrote: »

The whole social welfare system has to be reformed.

At the moment every payment is dealt with seperately which means some people are getting a nice lifestyle for doing FA that is being paid by those who actually work.

Child benefit going up after two kids? Joke.

Couple earning €70k a year getting child support? Joke.

PS workers who have job security that private sector workers could only dream of will have to take a lower wage to reflect that benefit.

The whole political gravy train will have to be culled. Expenses, obscene salaries, bloated and early pensions-cheerio. Seanad abolished, TD numbers cut by 50%, abolition/merger of loads of councils.

New criminal legislation will have to be brought in to deal with cronyism with regard to contracts paid for by the taxpayer. Minimum jail term of five years for those found guilty.

We must default. Borrowing to pay for infrastructural improvements is one thing, but borrowing to pay the pensions of our political parasites is unacceptable.

We can't keep borrowing as we can't afford to repay what we owe.

But there is no political will to take responsibility for this.

Borrowing millions to give to concerns abroad is madness as well.
That money could help us build a few Children’s hospitals and save life’s here IMHO.

Cee-Jay-Cee

200yrolecrank wrote: »

Its hard to believe that fella is 33,he looks closer to 46.

Thats stretching it, 44 or 45 maybe but not 46 although he acts like a 63 year old.

Chucky the tree

RachaelVO wrote: »

The biggest problem with Varadkar coming out with this is the face that, yeah the ECB/EU might not want to give us more bailout money, that just means we've not money to pay them back (twice technically). But what he's also failing to mention is that we're not solely reliant on ECB/EU, there is also the big wigs in the IMF, who says they won't renegotiate the bail out? Indications are that they would, and that we could get a more favourable deal from them.

Look at Iceland, they got funds only from the IMF and they're back on the bond market now!

It's not all bad if the result is NO

They got a $2bn bailout, pretty sure we're going to need a bit more then that. There is also the question of that IMF wanting to get involved in a EU country if the ECB don't.

RachaelVO

Chucky the tree wrote: »

They got a $2bn bailout, pretty sure we're going to need a bit more then that. There is also the question of that IMF wanting to get involved in a EU country if the ECB don't.

That's a valid point, but I have to say, I can't see the ECB/EU not continuing with the bail out, the Irish banks need to pay back ECB/EU banks, so essentially we're paying for it twice. They don't lend us the money to pay them back, they don't even get paid back once.

Must find the link, but there was an article a few weeks back saying that the IMF were always giving us a more favourable deal than the ECB/EU.

I'm more inclined to think that they will continue with the bail out and that the "we're all doomed if we don't tow the line..." thing is all bo11ox! We should be calling their bluff, see if they are really willing to see their banks and bondholders not paid back...

dvpower

RachaelVO wrote: »

We should be calling their bluff, see if they are really willing to see their banks and bondholders not paid back...

And if they hold the line, what then?

If you were in government, would you risk the consequences (felt mainly by others, not you) of a disorderly default?

Pacifist Pigeon

You know, looking at Fine Gael, it seems that they view democracy as an unnecessary obstacle. If they got the chance, we'd have a dictatorship tomorrow.

daltonmd

RachaelVO wrote: »

That's a valid point, but I have to say, I can't see the ECB/EU not continuing with the bail out, the Irish banks need to pay back ECB/EU banks, so essentially we're paying for it twice. They don't lend us the money to pay them back, they don't even get paid back once.

Must find the link, but there was an article a few weeks back saying that the IMF were always giving us a more favourable deal than the ECB/EU.

I'm more inclined to think that they will continue with the bail out and that the "we're all doomed if we don't tow the line..." thing is all bo11ox! We should be calling their bluff, see if they are really willing to see their banks and bondholders not paid back...

Great point Rachel. It would seem foolish for them to give us the first bailout and then not continue to get that money alone back.

We're already "in a bailout". What will they do? Demand we repay it all?

fishy fishy

wait, so the govt wants us all to vote yes. That seals it for me - I'll be voting NO. Why would you listen to this shower of loudmouths.

RachaelVO

dvpower wrote: »

And if they hold the line, what then?

If you were in government, would you risk the consequences (felt mainly by others, not you) of a disorderly default?

Then they don't get paid and the Euro becomes very unstable!

I'd chance my arm, it couldn't possibly make the books balance any worse!

RachaelVO

daltonmd wrote: »

Great point Rachel. It would seem foolish for them to give us the first bailout and then not continue to get that money alone back.

We're already "in a bailout". What will they do? Demand we repay it all?

Its possible they won't give us a penny in 2013, but I don't see it happening, I see "last minute" crisis talks and miracle of miracle they come to an agreement!

fishy fishy

lets call their bluff and see what happens. It's all "ireland have to do this, Ireland have to do that". They NEED us to do this and that. They Need us more than we need them to be honest. Call their bluff and see what happens. forget the licka*ses that we elected.

McTigs

fishy fishy wrote: »

They Need us more than we need them to be honest.

what planet are you on?

dvpower

RachaelVO wrote: »

Then they don't get paid and the Euro becomes very unstable!

I presume you accept that there is some tipping point?
If we say "We want the money but the interest rate must be 0.01% and the term must be 100 years", they'll tell us where to shove it, right?

So what makes you confident that the deal we currently have isn't too far away from the best deal they are willing to give us?

RachaelVO wrote: »

I'd chance my arm, it couldn't possibly make the books balance any worse!

If we have disorderly default the books will balance alright, but will Taoiseach Rachel be prepared to shut down hospitals and schools, stop paying the Gardai and all of the other things that we can't do next year when we are at least €14bn short?

The last big gamble this country made - the blanket guarantee - didn't work out too good. Do you really want to double down?

dvpower

RachaelVO wrote: »

Its possible they won't give us a penny in 2013, but I don't see it happening, I see "last minute" crisis talks and miracle of miracle they come to an agreement!

In the "last minute" crisis talks, will you still refuse to comply with their conditions? You'd no longer be chancing your arm - you're now playing Russian roulette.

daltonmd

dvpower wrote: »

I presume you accept that there is some tipping point?
If we say "We want the money but the interest rate must be 0.01% and the term must be 100 years", they'll tell us where to shove it, right?

So what makes you confident that the deal we currently have isn't too far away from the best deal they are willing to give us?


If we have disorderly default the books will balance alright, but will Taoiseach Rachel be prepared to shut down hospitals and schools, stop paying the Gardai and all of the other things that we can't do next year when we are at least €14bn short?

The last big gamble this country made - the blanket guarantee - didn't work out too good. Do you really want to double down?

DV, since yesterday Crumlin Hospital are appealing to the public to help them improve conditions for seriously ill children. We have chronic waiting lists, children in pain and suffering where their conditions are deteriorating all the time and when they finally get the treatment it's too late - the damage has been done.

No matter what happens there will be this tipping point, yes or no in this election will not change that. but a yes vote ties us into a death (debt) spiral and it won't be pretty either way.

Monty Burnz

Pacifist Pigeon wrote: »

You know, looking at Fine Gael, it seems that they view democracy as an unnecessary obstacle. If they got the chance, we'd have a dictatorship tomorrow.

LOL - ridiculous assertion. The Shinners and ULA are far further down the authoritarian road than FG, LAB or FFailure.

Can anyone remember who was in government when we actually DID do several referenda more than once?

LuckyLloyd

There are an awful lot of people posting in this thread who haven't properly processed the consequences of a disorderly default by the Irish State. There are valid long term economic arguments for walking away from our responsibilities, but the short to medium term fallout would be appalling, and pure hell to live through for most people.

Monty Burnz

fishy fishy wrote: »

lets call their bluff and see what happens. It's all "ireland have to do this, Ireland have to do that". They NEED us to do this and that. They Need us more than we need them to be honest. Call their bluff and see what happens. forget the licka*ses that we elected.

I could see them letting us go spectacularly bust just to scare the sh*t out of Spain and Italy and bring them into line. They can afford to let us hit the wall, but they can't allow either of those to go.

dvpower

daltonmd wrote: »

DV, since yesterday Crumlin Hospital are appealing to the public to help them improve conditions for seriously ill children. We have chronic waiting lists, children in pain and suffering where their conditions are deteriorating all the time and when they finally get the treatment it's too late - the damage has been done.

This should be a great incentive to avoid a disorderly default. At least now we have some certainty of our finances over the medium term. A disorderly default would risk turning seriously ill children into seriously dead children.

There may come a point when we need to negotiate a default, but I don't think we're there yet. I think there is scope to renegotiate the promissory notes and to bring our public spending into line.

Our deficit is partially caused by increased debt repayments but mostly increased public spending, which I think we could bring into line (but we should be doing it faster).

GombeanMan

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There are an awful lot of people posting in this thread who haven't properly processed the consequences of a disorderly default by the Irish State. There are valid long term economic arguments for walking away from our responsibilities, but the short to medium term fallout would be appalling, and pure hell to live through for most people.

If it must happen, it must happen. Signing away economic Sovereignty for maintaining short term social order won't do us any good in the long term. Why don't we fire the guys on HUGE money and give it to the people in this country who actually need it - sick, elderly etc? The Head of Coilte does not deserve all that money. Likewise for FAS in the past. No Government employee should recieve any bonus given how dire and fragile the economy is at the moment.

Monty Burnz

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There are an awful lot of people posting in this thread who haven't properly processed the consequences of a disorderly default by the Irish State. There are valid long term economic arguments for walking away from our responsibilities, but the short to medium term fallout would be appalling, and pure hell to live through for most people.

And the funny thing is these are the exact same people who will be at the front of the riots when the hospitals close or the banks collapse taking their savings with them, blaming everyone but themselves for where we find ourselves...

Monty Burnz

GombeanMan wrote: »

If it must happen, it must happen. Signing away economic Sovereignty for maintaining short term social order won't do us any good in the long term. Why don't we fire the guys on HUGE money and give it to the people in this country who actually need it - sick, elderly etc?

Sounds like a good idea in principle, but when you do the maths, you'll have a couple of million extra euros to divide between (say) a million people. That's only an extra couple of euro each - enough for them to buy a beer or something per year.

daltonmd

dvpower wrote: »

This should be a great incentive to avoid a disorderly default. At least now we have some certainty of our finances over the medium term. A disorderly default would risk turning seriously ill children into seriously dead children.

There may come a point when we need to negotiate a default, but I don't think we're there yet. I think there is scope to renegotiate the promissory notes and to bring our public spending into line.

Our deficit is partially caused by increased debt repayments but mostly increased public spending, which I think we could bring into line (but we should be doing it faster).

Agree, but my fear is that people will vote Yes thinking that they will avoid this. I simply cannot see a case where we can avoid the cuts that are necessarily to bring the deficit into line.
This is where having a coalition is a problem.

Labour - no cuts to SW/PS
FG - No tax increases.

Both making political decisions instead of economical ones. Recipe for disaster me thinks.

paddyandy

There are some people who want to bring this country down on it's knees by any means possible ;you get the drift when they harp on about the poor and needy but say little about other long term consequences of saying no .We don't have any serious alternative .

daltonmd

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I could see them letting us go spectacularly bust just to scare the sh*t out of Spain and Italy and bring them into line. They can afford to let us hit the wall, but they can't allow either of those to go.

I don't know Monty - what will it take to *bring* Spain and Italy into line? Massive cuts, massive austerity.

The more I hear the more I fear.

RachaelVO

dvpower wrote: »

I presume you accept that there is some tipping point?
If we say "We want the money but the interest rate must be 0.01% and the term must be 100 years", they'll tell us where to shove it, right?

So what makes you confident that the deal we currently have isn't too far away from the best deal they are willing to give us?


If we have disorderly default the books will balance alright, but will Taoiseach Rachel be prepared to shut down hospitals and schools, stop paying the Gardai and all of the other things that we can't do next year when we are at least €14bn short?

The last big gamble this country made - the blanket guarantee - didn't work out too good. Do you really want to double down?

Well, now Taoiseach Rachael, I do like the sound of that. Has quiet the ring to it

The ECB has currently loaned EU banks 1 TRILLION euro to keep the banking system stable. Apparently if you were to spend a million euro a day you still would never spend it in your life time, even if you were born today! That's a phenomenal amount of money. The ECB is at this moment in time breaking all its own rules, especially as it's trying desperately to keep the banks of the EU (with some notable exceptions) going!

The Irish banks owe them nearly as much as French banks for example. WHY would they put a stop on the bail out? Axel Weber has said that after this fiscal treaty is ratified the Germans (who are intrinsically given more power) are going to push for German style federalism (his words). This is only going to leave weak countries weaker and more a risk of being penalised. This is only going to leave US weaker. This is why I'd call their bluff, this is why I THINK they should be worried about a no vote! Its also why I think they'll still fund the bailout!

DV you're totally right about public spending, couldn't agree more, we need more money turning over in the economy, all the bailout is doing is preventing spending, from both public and private sector employees! Ideally we need lower income tax and other taxes (property taxes et al) then we have a more stable tax base. Our system relying heavily on VAT and Income tax is very fundamentally flawed

Freddie59

dvpower wrote: »

If we have disorderly default the books will balance alright, but will Taoiseach Rachel be prepared to shut down hospitals and schools, stop paying the Gardai and all of the other things that we can't do next year when we are at least €14bn short?

No. Maybe paying them a normal wage might greatly reduce it though. The public Sector wage/pension bill in 2010 was €18.2 Bn. We hav an €18Bn deficit. So, theoretically, we are borrowing €400m a week to pay these wages.

80% of the education budget goes on salaries.

70% of the HSE budget on salaries.

And so on.

If that deficit is to be reduced we have to slash PS pay and SW "entitlements" (which are completely ludicrous).

The place is bankrupt. We cannot keep borrowing €400m a week. And pay back the banking billions. Something's gonna give. And soon.

Fulton Crown

GombeanMan wrote: »

Seems to be alot of scaremongering going on here. This guy comes across as a complete arse with this nonsense. Varadkar is for the Elite, not the ordinary joe soap.

http://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-of-access-to-bailout-funds-if-ireland-votes-no-373522-Mar2012/

Load of Bollox pal...Varad tells it as it is ...fuckin far diff from previous showere of gombeen thieves.

get used to it....hmmmmmm ?:cool:

GombeanMan

Varadkar is taking the people for a ride. Need proof?

"increasingly it looks like we won’t need a second bailout, because we’re meeting our targets,”

Despite Moody's releasing this information yesterday:

"The ratings agency Moodys has said Ireland is likely to need a second bailout when the current aid programme expires."

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/moodys-ireland-likely-to-need-second-bailout-542358.html

Great. Our own Government Officials are lying to us through their teeth about our fiscal status. Nothing changes Political wise here. Wasn't it not too long ago we "turned the corner" To quote the Late Brian Lenhihan? An honest Politican is a rare sight indeed.

dvpower

RachaelVO wrote: »

This is why I'd call their bluff, this is why I THINK they should be worried about a no vote! Its also why I think they'll still fund the bailout!

It seems fairly likely that we're going to need a second bailout so I don't know why we would want to exclude ourselves from the ESM which is going to make it more difficult all round for us to get one.

The kind of fiscal straightjacket that the compact puts on everyone doesn't apply to countries who have to go to the fund (any country that sucessfully sticks to the 0.5% deficit rules almost be definition isn't going to need to draw down from the fund), so I don't think we should be overly concerned about the rules in the medium term.

If we do need a further bailout and they have to do some kind of special deal for us, isn't it likely that one of the conditions is going to be that we join the ESM? We end up in the same place, but we're dragged there kicking and screaming?

Not being part of the ESM makes it more likely that we will need a new bailout because the market is going to be very wary of buying our debt when we're not signed up to the backstop that gives them confidence of being repaid.

Fulton Crown

GombeanMan wrote: »

Varadkar is taking the people for a ride. Need proof?

"increasingly it looks like we won’t need a second bailout, because we’re meeting our targets,”

Despite Moody's releasing this information yesterday:

"The ratings agency Moodys has said Ireland is likely to need a second bailout when the current aid programme expires."

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/moodys-ireland-likely-to-need-second-bailout-542358.html

Great. Our own Government Officials are lying to us through their teeth about our fiscal status. Nothing changes Political wise here. Wasn't it not too long ago we "turned the corner" To quote the Late Brian Lenhihan? An honest Politican is a rare sight indeed.

All depends on European economy pal...of course The Var has to talk up the economy.

You sound like a cat who would be happy if we went down in flames..always likely to look at the negative side .

Just my observation pal....:eek:

Doc Ruby

dvpower wrote: »

It seems fairly likely that we're going to need a second bailout so I don't know why we would want to exclude ourselves from the ESM which is going to make it more difficult all round for us to get one.

Because the loans are making things worse in the long term, even if they allow us the illusion that its business as usual in the short term?

Zebra3

Freddie59 wrote: »

The place is bankrupt. We cannot keep borrowing €400m a week. And pay back the banking billions. Something's gonna give. And soon.

Yep, as the Americans would say, "do the math!".

dvpower

Doc Ruby wrote: »

Because the loans are making things worse in the long term, even if they allow us the illusion that its business as usual in the short term?

The loans are making things worse in the long term, but we have the loans regardless of this treaty - this isn't a referendum on defaulting on our debt.

Maybe we should have a vote on that proposition.

Doc Ruby

dvpower wrote: »

but we have the loans regardless of this treaty

See that's what I thought too but then Leo said otherwise.

donegal_road

I recently watched a really good film called The Counterfeiters based on a true story about an operation during the second world war called Operation Bernhard.

Operation Bernhard was the codename of a secret Nazi plan devised during the Second World War by the RSHA and the SS to destabilise the British economy by flooding the country with forged Bank of England £5, £10, £20, and £50 notes. It is the largest counterfeiting operation in history and has been fictionalised in books, the BBC comedy-drama miniseries Private Schulz and a 2007 Oscar-winning Austrian film, The Counterfeiters

A thought occured to me after watching the film, that Germany have followed through with this plan today, by flooding countries with debt, rather than counterfeit money, hence destabilising economies and creating a 'prison of nations' rather than an economic union. :):rolleyes::o:mad::(:eek::cool:

GombeanMan

I would be happy if he just cut the bull**** and told it as it is. I am sure the man has been placed in difficult circumstances, and that he most likely has integrity, but these minor fibs should be explained further.

mikom

donegal_road wrote: »

A thought occured to me after watching the film, that Germany have followed through with this plan today, by flooding countries with debt, rather than counterfeit money, hence destabilising economies and creating a 'prison of nations' rather than an economic union.

You are about to be even more scared........ http://mises.org/books/TRTS/

RachaelVO

dvpower wrote: »

If we do need a further bailout and they have to do some kind of special deal for us, isn't it likely that one of the conditions is going to be that we join the ESM? We end up in the same place, but we're dragged there kicking and screaming?

Not being part of the ESM makes it more likely that we will need a new bailout because the market is going to be very wary of buying our debt when we're not signed up to the backstop that gives them confidence of being repaid.

It's a pretty big IF though! One agency (Moodys) has said the think Ireland will need a second bail out! They can't be sure of it. I know they're influential in the credit ratings world, but that doesn't make the infallible as they have proved over other outlooks, espcially for example Argentina a few years ago!

I don't see how not being part of the fiscal union can signify a new bail out. It's unlikely to prevent investment, some non EU economists, have concluded that the fiscal union is only papering over the cracks, especially as it is going to be difficult for countries who are in the fiscal union and in difficulty to get away from the industrial might of Germany, especially as Germany will be pulling the strings. This will have a bigger influence on their growth (or lack there of) than they have so far envisioned!

In honesty Irish SOPA has a bigger chance of deterring investment that than not joining the fiscal union.

dvpower

RachaelVO wrote: »

In honesty Irish SOPA has a bigger chance of deterring investment that than not joining the fiscal union.

Access to the ESM tells investors that there is a safety net in place should a country run in to problems repaying their debt - they can go to the ESM to get the money.
Without the ESM, there is more uncertainty - more uncertainty means higher rates, higher rates means less investment.