Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

lostinashford

Very disappointed, wind only excitment!!!

Trogdor

Haven't had the time to look at any charts but i just spotted this on met eireann's website
"A few showers will continue along the North coast, and towards morning, some heavy rain or hail showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will drift onto the East coast."

DOCARCH

Trogdor wrote: »

"A few showers will continue along the North coast, and towards morning, some heavy rain or hail showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will drift onto the East coast."

Make sure you're up early and down to the sea front!!!

Broken Loose

DOCARCH wrote: »

Make sure you're up early and down to the sea front!!!

MT was talking about this in the "Possible Sunday Storm" thread about not seeing anything to indicate this and only sees isolated light showers so I'm not sure.

The charts have LI pretty high in the Irish Sea during the morning (Around 5 to 6 LI) and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. The storm that produced the Bray waterspout had some LI (Between 0 and 1) and instability over the Irish Sea that morning that hit a very large and developing area of shear along with the temperature difference between sea and land. It was right ingredients at the right time. I can't see anything on the poor mans charts unless people here see the same thing Met E is seeing.

I'm thinking Met E are just covering their butts because the same storm that produced the Bray waterspout they didn't catch and called for a dry and clear morning. Only MT had the possibility of showers. So if something kicks off again, they can say they were on top of it.

(Long time lurker, just started posting. Love the forum)

Deep Easterly

Broken Loose wrote: »

I'm thinking Met E are just covering their butts because the same storm that produced the Bray waterspout they didn't catch and called for a dry and clear morning. Only MT had the possibility of showers. So if something kicks off again, they can say they were on top of it.

(Long time lurker, just started posting. Love the forum)

I think they are just calling it as they see it rather than just covering their butts.

Iancar29

Broken Loose wrote: »

MT was talking about this in the "Possible Sunday Storm" thread about not seeing anything to indicate this and only sees isolated light showers so I'm not sure.

The charts have LI pretty high in the Irish Sea during the morning (Around 5 to 6 LI) and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. The storm that produced the Bray waterspout had some LI (Between 0 and 1) and instability over the Irish Sea that morning that hit a very large and developing area of shear along with the temperature difference between sea and land. It was right ingredients at the right time. I can't see anything on the poor mans charts unless people here see the same thing Met E is seeing.

I'm thinking Met E are just covering their butts because the same storm that produced the Bray waterspout they didn't catch and called for a dry and clear morning. Only MT had the possibility of showers. So if something kicks off again, they can say they were on top of it.

(Long time lurker, just started posting. Love the forum)

Welcome! ... and yes, i can see some light showers in the morning but nothing to really produce any hail let alone and thundery showers!

Atmosphere is a flat as a pancake .. LI to large as u said and also bearly any cape... would love to know where they got this from. Must be a new form of forecasting? ha

Su Campu

Both the HiRLAM and GFS are showing unstable low levels, including a surface convergence zone forming along the east coast overnight and tomorrow morning, also coinciding with 40-50 knots deep layer shear. A tongue of cold (sub -30 °C) 500 hPa air also overspreads the east coast.










The GFS forecast sounding for just off the Wicklow coast shows some potential instability, with good dry mid levels,low LCLs and low-level directional shear. Another spout is possible.

Iancar29

hi res NMM show LI of 3 at best...

I really dont see the buoyancy needed?

Was the day of the spout not around 0 ?


Still though... u posting those charts Su with ur wording is making me still wanna set up tent on Bray head right now! ... Dam u Su... Dam u ! hahaa :pac:

Su Campu

Don't be getting too bogged down on lifted index right now. Convection will probably be too shallow to make it up to the 500 hPa level so it's not really a good indicator. Better in warmer summer time storms (though as we're entering May you'd think that's what we'd be talking about now eh!). There is good low-level buoyancy there, plus the possible convergence zone.

Around dawn is probably the best time for anything to happen, as upper levels warm slightly through the day as the trough cuts off over Iberia.

Iancar29

ANyone going to bray for ehh... SUNRISE shots???? :rolleyes:





Too early for me to get a bus and train anywhere so ...

Trogdor.... its all down to you now! ha

Deep Easterly

For what its worth the Norwegian Hirlam model also showing potential for some heavy, if scattered, showers tomorrow morning developing in the Irish sea.



of course, by the time that bank of instability reaches this side of the island the surface air mass begins to diverge. Typical.. :mad:

Trogdor

Thanks for the explanation of the set up Su!

Iancar29 wrote: »

ANyone going to bray for ehh... SUNRISE shots???? :rolleyes:



https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/207463/202607.png

Too early for me to get a bus and train anywhere so ...

Trogdor.... its all down to you now! ha

Hmm I may be sleeping..might set an early alarm so i can check the radar, will probably just end up throwing my phone across the room when it goes off though!:o

Iancar29

Trogdor wrote: »

Thanks for the explanation of the set up Su!



Hmm I may be sleeping..might set an early alarm so i can check the radar, will probably just end up throwing my phone across the room when it goes off though!:o

Do NOT give me that malarcky!!!... im dying here with the flu and im gonna be up all night by the looks of things... ill be devastated if i see something decent forming !ha

If we only had the access to the DOW radar radial winds !!

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

im dying here with the flu!

Ditto

kittyn

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ditto

Ditto here too guys ........ Dying a death here, ear throbbing driving me nuts lol

Su Campu

And sure enough there's a line of convection forming off Anglesey and heading westwards.

http://meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=149&y=187

Casement and Dublin TAFs are going for moderate rain showers from around 5 to 11 am

Deep Easterly

kittyn wrote: »

Ditto here too guys ........ Dying a death here, ear throbbing driving me nuts lol

This is scary, ear throbbing drove me nuts last night! kinda weird listening to your own heart beat banging inside your eardrum.

Su Campu wrote:

And sure enough there's a line of convection forming off Anglesey and heading westwards.

http://meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zo...om&x=149&y=187

Casement and Dublin TAFs are going for moderate rain showers from around 5 to 11 am

Will set up radar images to record overnight progress. Will be interesting to see how the showers continue to develop overnight.

kittyn

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This is scary, ear throbbing drove me nuts last night! kinda weird listening to your own heart beat banging inside your eardrum.



It's a horrible feeling :-( hot water bottle over my ear is helping some what ....... Maybe a clap of thunder might clear it ;-)

Iancar29

kittyn wrote: »

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This is scary, ear throbbing drove me nuts last night! kinda weird listening to your own heart beat banging inside your eardrum.



It's a horrible feeling :-( hot water bottle over my ear is helping some what ....... Maybe a clap of thunder might clear it ;-)

OMG Mine too!!!!!!!!!

Shivers all day also ... thinking of calling in sick 2moro, cant be having it messing up college work on monday.



Back on Topic.. interesting to see what those showers are turning into once they hit the IOM... * gets on bike cycles to coast * :pac:

megatron989

Couldn't sleep so decided to check the forum, and all eyes on bray again! All calm here at sea front at the moment, be interesting how sunrise effects things later. Line of showers heading north west towards coast looks to be faiding now.

ninebeanrows

Something moving ashore south Louth;)

gonker

massive shower of hail stones just fell here in drogheda. followed by 3 very loud thunder claps and lightening. the house creaked after them . the hail woke me up. seems to be stopped now. blackbirds are singing.

ninebeanrows

gonker wrote: »

massive shower of hail stones just fell here in drogheda. followed by 3 very loud thunder claps and lightening. the house creaked after them . the hail woke me up. seems to be stopped now. blackbirds are singing.

Yep a decent little cell;)

gonker

spoke too soon. another large bang. sorry don't know official terminology:-\. i have never heard the house creak like that after a thunder clap. that was scary.

ninebeanrows

gonker wrote: »

spoke too soon. another large bang. sorry don't know official terminology:-\. i have never heard the house creak like that after a thunder clap. that was scary.

The cell has really come to life some serious radar returns at its centre

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/?tab=map&map=Rainfall


The lads would like to be up for this! Keep up the reports thanks!

rockynavan

just hiting navan now thuder and hale

PinkFly

The thunder was unbelievable rumbled for ages and shook the house so much that the whole streets house alarms and car alarms went off

Everything's really quiet now non rain but really black clouds

gonker

silence hear apart from husband snoring.

Mothman

Iancar29 wrote: »

Welcome! ... and yes, i can see some light showers in the morning but nothing to really produce any hail let alone and thundery showers!

Atmosphere is a flat as a pancake .. LI to large as u said and also bearly any cape... would love to know where they got this from. Must be a new form of forecasting? ha

Broken Loose wrote: »

The charts have LI pretty high in the Irish Sea during the morning (Around 5 to 6 LI) and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. The storm that produced the Bray waterspout had some LI (Between 0 and 1) and instability over the Irish Sea that morning that hit a very large and developing area of shear along with the temperature difference between sea and land. It was right ingredients at the right time. I can't see anything on the poor mans charts unless people here see the same thing Met E is seeing.

I'm thinking Met E are just covering their butts because the same storm that produced the Bray waterspout they didn't catch and called for a dry and clear morning. Only MT had the possibility of showers. So if something kicks off again, they can say they were on top of it.

Woken up by heavy hail and looks mad turbulent. No thunder though.
Met E on the money and I'll credit Su as well.

M.T. Cranium

Radar shows isolated TRW northwest of Dublin moving southwest. Possible one or two other cells will display similar brief flare-ups as trough moves west (basically it's a warm front now pushing back towards Ireland).

Coverage is likely to be 10-20 per cent so this applied to population distribution or plans for the day gives your chance of seeing one. Later would think that Wicklow and south Dublin the most likely to see hail or thunder, as well as Kildare, Offaly, Meath.