Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

lostinashford

Iancar29

Just finishing off some study b4 i go through my photos properly but heres something nice from the day.


On the way home i managed to snap this Funnel cloud over Malahide while in the car.

lostinashford

Just got very dark over Ashford

Super-Rush

Was looking down across the valley and could see a huge cell eating up the ground very quickly and heading in our direction. It was very eerie to watch it develop as it got closer.

The wind and rain is very intense at the moment.

Wild Bill

I wish to point out that there were immense showers in all directions today - except here!

lostinashford

Wild Bill wrote: »

I wish to point out that there were immense showers in all directions today - except here!

Forgot to hit the 'Shield down' button WB

Wild Bill

lostinashford wrote: »

Forgot to hit the 'Shield down' button WB

I think it's stuck

The rain yesterday managed to pass over without depositing a single drop here!

Iancar29

A few from today so.

Hail cell Panorama with embedded Mammatus and wall cloud.


Howth Lighthouse panorama.
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5038/7198677504_3b829c7ded.jpg

Mammatus
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7214/7198784164_49eb963532.jpg

Wall cloud.
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7217/7198932834_b1a42575b2.jpg

More photos here and hi res .
Enjoy

http://www.flickr.com/photos/41948286@N02/

kittyn

Wild Bill wrote: »

I think it's stuck

The rain yesterday managed to pass over without depositing a single drop here!

There was a fairly substantial hail shower just up the road from you around half two

DOCARCH

Looks like a repeat of yesterday, today, if we can get the sun out to heat up the ground and get some convection going.

Estofex has 15% chance of thunderstorms today for the eastern half of the country.

DOCARCH

A few sharp looking showers gathering in the midlands northwards.

Iancar29

:(:(

DOCARCH

Iancar29 wrote: »

:(:(

Ohh I know.

lolie

1 strike in the northwest earlier.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Iancar29

Yous are not gonna BELIEVE THIS!!!!


So i was going through my photos on my laptop , tidying up and that and Looks what i saw... i can surely say my jaw hit the floor!!!!!





So... 7th of May ... 2012






On the day i was remembering around the same time last year it was interesting too.... but..... LOOK how scarily interesting it was!!!!





...



....


READY?!









SAME DAY , Same MOnth, different year.... exact same number of STRIKES!!!:eek::eek::eek::eek: ... CRAZY OR WHAT!?! ha

Tornando9

That number is on all their charts Ian not sure what it refers too. If you go to the site and keep clicking previous day you'll notice it doesn't change much.

EDIT..

From Met Eireann lightning page

PLEASE NOTE:
The number of messages received on the bottom left hand side of image. 288 SFERIC messages are issued daily.
Lightning locations are sourced from the WMO SFERIC (SFUK) messages.
SFUK is part name for the code for reporting the geographical location of sources of atmospherics.
Some atmospherics may not be detected, average detection efficiency is > 90%. Isolated spurious returns can also occur.
We are most grateful to the UK Met Office for the use of their Arrival Time Difference (ATD) lightning location data.

lolie

Tornando9 wrote: »

That number is on all their charts Ian not sure what it refers too. If you go to the site and keep clicking previous day you'll notice it doesn't change much.

I noticed that to, wonder what them numbers mean.
Would be cool if it was the same though.

Iancar29

Tornando9 wrote: »

That number is on all their charts Ian not sure what it refers too. If you go to the site and keep clicking previous day you'll notice it doesn't change much.

EDIT..

From Met Eireann lightning page

PLEASE NOTE:
The number of messages received on the bottom left hand side of image. 288 SFERIC messages are issued daily.
Lightning locations are sourced from the WMO SFERIC (SFUK) messages.
SFUK is part name for the code for reporting the geographical location of sources of atmospherics.
Some atmospherics may not be detected, average detection efficiency is > 90%. Isolated spurious returns can also occur.
We are most grateful to the UK Met Office for the use of their Arrival Time Difference (ATD) lightning location data.

:O !! .......


EPIC FAIL .....:(

Harps

A long way off yet but the second half of this week is looking like it could be very interesting, plenty of time for a downgrade but one to keep an eye on

Iancar29

A chance for some activity for the folks in the WESSSSSHT .

12z has some nice pretty colours on the charts for Friday evening.



things which are not favouring the potential is the the upper ridge not helping lift. Along with the lack of sufficient moisture.

.Lapse rates seem ok . Will be interesting to to see how this pans out.

Thoughts people?

Su Campu

The GFS sounding for Galway at 4pm on Friday shows a slight cap, with a convective temperature of around 24-25 °C. It is forecasting dewpoints in the high teens in the west. If the convective temperature is acheived then deep convection can break out up to around 300 hPa. Some short sharp pulse storms would result through Connaught for a time Friday afternoon before quickly dying out. It will be interesting to keep an eye on temperatures at say Mullingar, Gurteen, Shannon and Knock to see where exactly the temperature hits the magic 24 °C (if at all!!). This should be where convection starts and develops westward.

redsteveireland

Iancar29 wrote: »

A chance for some activity for the folks in the WESSSSSHT .

12z has some nice pretty colours on the charts for Friday evening.



things which are not favouring the potential is the the upper ridge not helping lift. Along with the lack of sufficient moisture.

.Lapse rates seem ok . Will be interesting to to see how this pans out.

Thoughts people?

My thoughts are, it is long overdue.:)

Deep Easterly

Speaking just for my own back garden I'd much happier if those half decent CAPE values were more over the midlands than here especially considering the relatively breezy conditions that are forecast for Friday afternoon. Not hopeful at all of seeing anything here on the flat bog lands but I think those nearer any higher ground towards the coast might be in with a slightly better chance seeing a spontaneous shower brew up. I have resigned myself to the fact that we will never experience a good old fashioned thunderstorm here every again.

Mr Benevolent

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I have resigned myself to the fact that we will never experience a good old fashioned thunderstorm here every again.

Weather doesn't have a memory, or a sense of nostalgia. It's just fairly rare to have a large thunderstorm in Ireland.

lolie

Su Campu wrote: »

The GFS sounding for Galway at 4pm on Friday shows a slight cap, with a convective temperature of around 24-25 °C. It is forecasting dewpoints in the high teens in the west. If the convective temperature is acheived then deep convection can break out up to around 300 hPa. Some short sharp pulse storms would result through Connaught for a time Friday afternoon before quickly dying out. It will be interesting to keep an eye on temperatures at say Mullingar, Gurteen, Shannon and Knock to see where exactly the temperature hits the magic 24 °C (if at all!!). This should be where convection starts and develops westward.

Su a few people i know are planning on climbing croagh patrick tomorrow afternoon.
Just wondering would it be a good idea or is the possibility of thundery showers further south?

Iancar29

lolie wrote: »

Su a few people i know are planning on climbing croagh patrick tomorrow afternoon.
Just wondering would it be a good idea or is the possibility of thundery showers further south?

Oragraphic lift ( high terrain ) will help trigger any storms so best just be careful. Hi Res model is picking up a few convective showers tomorrow so the risk is certainly there.


Id go early if i was them. Be back before anything potential thunderstorm develops mid afternoon.
But me being me id be the on going up with my camera and tripod trying to get a panoramic of a thunderstorm! * sigh *

DOCARCH

Convection getting going now in the UK over the spine of northern England and over Scotland. They could be in for a stormy afternoon and evening. Lucky gits!

Su Campu

Still looking like we'll see more cloud tomorrow as dewpoints increase to the mid teens. These cumuli should develop into isolated pulse storms in the west, but they should be short-lived. Still looking like around 24 the magic temperature for this to happen.

lolie

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oragraphic lift ( high terrain ) will help trigger any storms so best just be careful. Hi Res model is picking up a few convective showers tomorrow so the risk is certainly there.


Id go early if i was them. Be back before anything potential thunderstorm develops mid afternoon.
But me being me id be the on going up with my camera and tripod trying to get a panoramic of a thunderstorm! * sigh *

Cheers ian.
Change of plan, their leavin it till next wk.
I'd be tempted to go meself if there was a higher risk of a big storm, sadly not!

Deep Easterly

Confab wrote: »

Weather doesn't have a memory, or a sense of nostalgia. It's just fairly rare to have a large thunderstorm in Ireland.

Yes, I am well aware of that, but it is not unusual to have a few storms a year either. Can't speak for other areas but for my region they have become virtually extinct over the last couple of years.