Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

jdee99

I have started to contribute lightning discharge data to Blitzortung.org and if you go here http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php you can see storms tracking across europe as it happens. There is a big one out in the western approaches now.

eskimocat

I have been following the discussion about the effects of a high temp on the chances of having a thunder storm. Would a heat induced thunder storm be a 'dry' storm, or would it bring rain etc for a quick downpour ? What's the likely scenario?

Thanks

Iancar29

In usual circumstances , the more heat the better as the land heating then would add to the instability in the air . A warm parcel of air would rise a lot quicker the warmer it is . A temp of 25 degrees C and dew point of more the 15 would lead to good instability . The factor today against us for a big storm would be as Su mentioned is the cap . This being a temp. Inversion at low level (warm blanket of air ), this is what is giving haze places but also stopping any considerable rising motion to higher levels . Its a pity But If the temp gets past the temp of the inversion level ( the magical 24 o c in this case ) then any clouds should be able to develope into a storm . But considering that each cell will hav to tap into that latent heat to break trough the cap this is why any storms would only be pulse storm events . Ill say from 3pm a view of sat24 might show a start of a weak CU field develope and from there an odd cell could break trough and grow into CBs


Good look to those in the West and South West . I'd gladly enjoy being on a mountain like Croke Patrick right now ha .
Hope all thats right now as per my amateur knowledge ha .

Su Campu

eskimocat wrote: »

I have been following the discussion about the effects of a high temp on the chances of having a thunder storm. Would a heat induced thunder storm be a 'dry' storm, or would it bring rain etc for a quick downpour ? What's the likely scenario?

Thanks

With dewpoints in the high teens there is a lot of water vapour in the lower atmosphere which will translate to precipitation if deep convection takes place.

There is a slight cap, which is why a certain convective temperature is required to allow the parcel to overcome it (so called level of fee convection (LFC)) and rise unhindered (to around 30,000 ft from the forecast soundings). We have around 24 C in some areas now so we should see convection get going through the afternoon.

Iancar29

Just on Que... looks like some towers attempting to go up around portlaoise.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Jpmarn

Some towers building up around Limerick at the moment.

redsteveireland

It has started http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?
:D:D

I can just about see it building from here through the haze passing from Tipperary along the Galway/Clare border. Too far south for me.:mad:

darkman2

Very intense looking cell although rather small right now on the Clare/Tipp border.

Iancar29

What a waste of all that energy

Su Campu

Here's a nice image of that potent cell that formed across north Tipp and Clare this afternoon. Note the overshooting tops. Image time 1600UTC.

Iancar29

Great image Su! , wheres this from?

Really wanted to see shots of this cell from a distance.Id Say it looked class

Su Campu

It's from EUMETSAT E-view Ian, hold Shift and then drag downwards to zoom in.

Here's a GFS profile for Shannon Airport for 15Z today. The text (attached) shows a forecast surface temperature of 22 but a dewpoint of 19 °C. This yields a CAPE of 1700 J/kg and LI of -5. The actual temperature and dewpoint at 15Z were 28 and 16, respectively, so the model was a good bit out with both. But in any case, taking a parcel from the real surface temp, dewpoint and station level pressure (1017) yields a LCL and LFC of around 1000 m, with convection right up to around 250 hPa (10 km) and CAPE probably around the 1500 J/kg mark. An unusual setup for Ireland for any time of the year, and something more akin to that found in southern England on one or two occasions a year.

Iancar29

The lads about to get a nado! !

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

lolie

Any chance of this making landfall, probably not.

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

lolie

Few strikes in cork

Su Campu

lolie wrote: »

Few strikes in cork

They're false returns. There re no clouds or showers near Cork. Sometimes the lightning network picks showws spurious strikes from the blue like that.

Ravomix

I heard reports on the rte forecast last night about thunderstorms in parts of limerick and clare though dey seemed to be isolated and short lived.Anyone hear where exactly dey hit, any reports on dem?28.3 degrees recorded in adfert kerry and 27.8 degrees in shannon which was considerably higher than the 25 degrees forecasted earlier yesterday.

MiNdGaM3

Su Campu wrote: »

They're false returns. There re no clouds or showers near Cork. Sometimes the lightning network picks showws spurious strikes from the blue like that.

Can confirm that. Nothing but blue skies and wind in Cork so far today

Ravomix

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Can confirm that. Nothing but blue skies and wind in Cork so far today

Theres no instability forecast for anywhere in Ireland.Just a day of blue skies and temps of 25 degrees approx.

Strangegravy

Here's a far off snap of the convection clouds yesterday that gave those few Clare/Tipp strikes, I was too far away really to capture anything impressive, but was nice watching the clouds slowly form all the same.

lolie

Su Campu wrote: »

They're false returns. There re no clouds or showers near Cork. Sometimes the lightning network picks showws spurious strikes from the blue like that.

Wondered alright, nothing on radar or sat24.
Good call on yesterday Su.
How is early next week looking, some nice cape charts.

Ravomix

Cloudy weather forecast for Munster with outbreaks of rain.There is the potential for some thundery outbreaks given that a warm east to south easterly airflow persists but i wouldn't hold my breath.More often than than not only ordinary rain falls and a warm spell usually ends with a whimper rather than a bang especially so in recent years.

AntiRip

Ravomix

AntiRip wrote: »

Impressive pics,where were dey taken?Did you hear any thunder?Was there much percipitation?Met Eireann didn't give dem much mention due to the fact dey were isolated and short lived i guess.

Deep Easterly

AntiRip wrote: »

Thunderstorms yesterday

Hi Antirip, could you give an idea as to where those photos were taken, the first one especially is class! I read on IWO that Nenegh in north Tipperary took a direct hit.

Jim_Kiy

First pic reminds me of an elephant..:pac:
Some amount of strikes to the South today and even a few over the Irish sea..next week could be interesting.

AntiRip

I'm in the North Kerry region. It was very localised as people 5 miles away couldn't believe it was raining where I was and there wasn't a cloud in the sky there.

2 heavy downpours with 3-4 claps of thunder. It was strange as the sun was shining at the same time for the first one and the paths were drying out within seconds of the rain failing. The sky was changing very quickly as it was gone within 20 minutes or so and it was like it never happened.

Got this from a map yesterday where you can clearly see the thunderstorms over Tipperary and Kerry/Clare.

Iancar29

Ohhh to be on the Very SW tip of england this evening !!!
Loads of strikes!
Cells are dying over the irish sea

http://www.sat24.com/gb?ir=False

Strangegravy

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ohhh to be on the Very SW tip of england this evening !!!
Loads of strikes!
Cells are dying over the irish sea

http://www.sat24.com/gb?ir=False

Yeah, if that keeps up they'll have some light show there later once it gets dark!

MiNdGaM3

Would be amazing to sit out on a beach near Plymouth watching the towers and lightning in the distance over the channel now.