Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

Elmer Blooker

a very impressive band of rain! :eek:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Ravomix

AntiRip wrote: »

I'm in the North Kerry region. It was very localised as people 5 miles away couldn't believe it was raining where I was and there wasn't a cloud in the sky there.

2 heavy downpours with 3-4 claps of thunder. It was strange as the sun was shining at the same time for the first one and the paths were drying out within seconds of the rain failing. The sky was changing very quickly as it was gone within 20 minutes or so and it was like it never happened.

Got this from a map yesterday where you can clearly see the thunderstorms over Tipperary and Kerry/Clare.

It was very localised all right.I am in mid tipperary about 20 miles south of nenagh and we got nothing.

Ravomix

Strangegravy wrote: »

Yeah, if that keeps up they'll have some light show there later once it gets dark!

The south of england always seems to get the prize of thunderstorms spreading up from the channel in this kind of set up.

Su Campu

That front looks nice in the setting sun.

MiNdGaM3

The contrast between the clear skies over the UK and Ireland and the band to our south is quite beautiful!




http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Europe_2_01.2012147.aqua.1km

Su Campu

Is there a reason why the Midlands thunderstorm still features in the title of this thread?

Rikand

Su Campu wrote: »

Is there a reason why the Midlands thunderstorm still features in the title of this thread?

Because there is some super clouds forming around athlone right now. Some thunder on the way mayhaps?

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Is there a reason why the Midlands thunderstorm still features in the title of this thread?

Perhaps you should have stayed on as a Mod

cyclops999

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Su Campu wrote: »

Is there a reason why the Midlands thunderstorm still features in the title of this thread?

Because there is some super clouds forming around athlone right now. Some thunder on the way mayhaps?

Nothing happening in Athlone all quite

Deep Easterly

Wednesday might be worth keeping an eye on for some heavy shower potential as a slack trough of low pressure crosses over the country. You can be guaranteed that Galway will be the one place that will miss out if they do break out!

Hal1

Front passing through now. Maybe some sparks tonight?

squonk

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Wednesday might be worth keeping an eye on for some heavy shower potential as a slack trough of low pressure crosses over the country. You can be guaranteed that Galway will be the one place that will miss out if they do break out!

Feck ya DE! I hope you're wrong. I'm looking forward to my first Galway lightening watch!

Su Campu

The sky has gone from totally clear to overcast in the last hour or so. There is a line of convection intensifying along a east-west convergence zone through the midlands at the moment. It could lead to something in a while.

DOCARCH

Yeah, distinct thundery look to the sky/clouds just before sunset. Some showers building over the Irish Sea atm.

Su Campu

A potent cell is now showing red returns on the Kildare-Laois border. Would expect a flash or two from it

Ravomix

That front was as weak as **** yesterday evening and produced just a bit of drizzle in places.Here in Tipperary there was a change yesterday evening as it clouded over and became noticeably cooler.That cloudy cooler theme is continuing here today.Little or no chance of thunderstorms this week apart from maybe a few thundery showers in Ulster on Wednesday according to the latest forecast.In the second half of the week and into next weekend its to get sunny again but alot cooler and fresher with a northerly airflow,quite a boring set up with no chance of thunderstorms.How long more have we to wait!!! It was a disappointing end 2 the hot spell 2 say the least.

Iancar29

Tomorrow theres a chance of some pulse type storms once again mainly for the West and North and some inland counties too.

Hi res model going for some instability and reasonable cape from a line from Galway to Dublin Northwards. With the best area atm looking to be Galway, Sligo , Roscommon , Mayo and Donegal .

Any storms will be short lived as Deep Layer Shear is low is most regions bar the West Coast.

Hi Res model going for strongest convective precipitation in the West.


Divergence at 500mbs is also positive in the west and midlands.

Dew points in the mid teens should help fuel storms enough for a few sparks and some decent showers in places.

Shall update in z morning

Iancar29

UKASF this morning going nicely with the areas i mentioned last night.

Areas Affected:

SLGT: Midlands, Home Counties, London, SE + CS Eng and W/N Ireland
Synopsis:

Upper trough continues to swing northwards across the British Isles with some mid-level instability still present. Cooler air attempts to migrate southwards behind a weakening cold front.

Discussion:

Once again rather slack conditions will be present at the surface, allowing seabreezes to develop and consequently some convergence. A cooler undercut is expected as northeasterly winds strengthen, and thus lowering daytime maxima potential compared to recent days.

As a result, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop, but will rely heavily on convergence, orographical lifting or frontal forcing. Current thinking is some surface convergence will be present near a very weak frontal boundary over the Home Counties towards the East Midlands, and therefore it is this area that currently exhibits the greatest chance of a few showers developing.

Some low-level convergence over Connaught and west Ulster will also allow a few showers and/or thunderstorms to form there also.

Shear once again is rather weak or non-existent, and so such showers will be poorly organised and may not be particularly long-lived. There are suggestions of some slight directional shear in the lower layers, which may assist in separating updraft/downdrafts to sustain such a cell for a short period of time, but the lack of any strong synoptic-scale forcing suggests that showers/storms will be shorter-lived than those of Monday.

PWAT >24mm locally could mean that slow-moving showers have the potential to produce some significant quantities of rainfall over a small area and thus increasing the potential for localised flooding; else severe weather is unlikely.

EStofex also happy too for the same area.




Good luck people!

redsteveireland

Lots of random strikes all over the Atlantic, wasted.
http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Su Campu

Met Éireann's Aviation chart forecasts isolated/occasional embedded thunderstorms within the front that is moving up over the country this afternoon. Also mentioned in the SIGMET below:

EISN SIGMET 01 VALID 020800/021000 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR/UIR EMBD TS FCST WITHIN 50NM OF LINE N51 W010 TO N54 W013 TOP FL360 MOV NNE AT 15KT NC=

Iancar29

Some nice potential for some action on Wednesday. At the moment, it seems the north is in with the best chance. But the midlands also in with a good chance too id expect as there seems to be some a slight conversion .

SOme nice LI and Cape up to late afternoon.




Will be nice to keep an eye on , especially when the hi res comes into view.

The ESTOFEX chart 3 posts up could be used to show the areas in with a chance this wednesday .

Iancar29

Gfs playing ball for wednesday from the 12z

Iancar29

Some nice returns starting to appear in the south.

DOCARCH

That line of showers seems to be developing nicely. Cbs observed in current obs from Shannon AP.

A few sparks later maybe?

Iancar29

Yep certainly visible too by looking at the latest Sat24 image.


Surely could be some action if it keeps going like this in the next few hours.

dexter647

DOCARCH wrote: »

That line of showers seems to be developing nicely. Cbs observed in current obs from Shannon AP.

A few sparks later maybe?

That would be lovely and something to look forward 2:).Def looks like a developing squall line on the met radar..Fingers crossed!

Jpmarn

The squall line passed over my location near Limerick city in the past hour. No thunder.

Su Campu

The 12Z Valentia sounding and Lightning Wizard hirlams and GFSs show a tongue of rich low-level moisture across Munster, coupled with around 40 knots of deep layer shear. With an elevated mixed layer in place the sounding shows a deep convective temperature of around 17 °C, which was reached this afternoon, hence the convection.

Conditions are all the time becoming less favourable, however, with shear and solar heating reducing this evening. We should see this system gradually fizzle out as it moves northeastwards and I think it's missed the boat when it comes to generating sparks.

gbee

Power Outage [connected?]

Iancar29

Could be... strike just registered just north of Midleton.