Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

Graces7

West Cork.. thunder here.. Not on the weather forecast for here either according to met. Poor pooch exploded!

run_Forrest_run

I shall be swimming home today for sure.

redsteveireland

Strike data from yesterday. Met.ie

Su Campu

SIGMET out for embedded thunderstorms east of 12W, moving northwards. Valid up to 3 pm.

EISN SIGMET 02 VALID 071000/071400 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR/UIR EMBD TS FCST E OF W01200 TOP FL300 MOV N AT 15KT NC=

BEASTERLY

Thunder in Wexford at about 0830 this morning.

muckish

Yesterday evening in Letterkenny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFqajIhDiZ8

Iancar29

Thundery conditions look likely for the Midlands on monday.
LI -1 , -2 in place with a few Hundred J of Cape .
Some conversion around southern midlands should get things going too but near non existent Deep layer and low level shear would mean storms will not last long as the cells wont be able to separate between the updraft and down drafts.

Met Éireann are nicely commenting on the situation though.

09 June 2012 19:23

Outlook

The early part of next week will be quite showery as northerly winds bring cool air down over the country. The morning time from Monday to Wednesday will be sunny and fairly dry. But the cloud will build up and heavy showers will break out from the early afternoon onwards with torrential thundery downpours occuring. The showers will be less frequent during Wednesday and it will be the driest day of the first half of next week. Highest temperatures for these days will be around 16 or 17 degrees. Current indications suggest that next Thursday will be fairly dry but Friday will be wet.

eskimocat

Iancar29 wrote: »

Thundery conditions look likely for the Midlands on monday.
LI -1 , -2 in place with a few Hundred J of Cape .
Some conversion around southern midlands should get things going too but near non existent Deep layer and low level shear would mean storms will not last long as the cells wont be able to separate between the updraft and down drafts.

Met Éireann are nicely commenting on the situation though.

Thanks for this Iancar, and also for explaining how you think it will play out.. learning lots thanks

Birdnuts

Most of next week looks like a Thunderfest!!:eek::cool::D;)

Iancar29

Downgrade on this mornings run ... hopefully all hope isnt lost though!

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Downgrade on this mornings run

Tuesday esp still hopeful for potential development. Hi res models have a possible convergence zone developing in the midlands/east area during the afternoon helping to build up 'dem shower clouds. Worth keeping an eye on anyways.


From yr.no

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Tuesday esp still hopeful for potential development. Hi res models have a possible convergence zone developing in the midlands/east area during the afternoon helping to build up 'dem shower clouds. Worth keeping an eye on anyways.


From yr.no

Hmmmmm.... ill be halfway to Denver by the time any showers start popping up! ha :rolleyes:

now.... back to packing i go!

Iancar29

Some strikes over the north and also in the Midlands near Roscommon just now.

Be on the look out for FUnnels!... one officially touched down in Donegal at 11.30 !!

Harps

Really nice looking echoes from a stationary cell right over my house again, the first time in months I've been away from Letterkenny and there's finally some interesting weather

Rikand

Iancar29 wrote: »

Some strikes over the north and also in the Midlands near Roscommon just now.

Be on the look out for FUnnels!... one officially touched down in Donegal at 11.30 !!

was driving through Roscommon town when that one was forming up. Really impressive looking set of clouds - it was so dark!

Darwin

Yes drove through that system earlier in Carlow, could hardly see the road ahead there was such a deluge. Some very odd looking clouds too, but didn't see any funnels!

sunbabe08

is cork going to get some thunderstorms tomorrow?:D

Clamball

Looking at raintoday.co.uk some very heavy rain north of cahir at the moment. Midleton got an awful lot of rain today again.

cml387

Three thunder rumbles and heavy rain in Clonmek this evening at 6:30

lolie

Seen a funnel cloud earlier from the cell that passed over east cavan this eve.
Not very big but lasted a good 10 mins.
I'll try put up a pic later.

Jim_Kiy

Seems like coastal counties might not be the best location for sparks tomorrow.

Su Campu

Today's funnel in Donegal was likely, given the elevated low-level CAPE and reduced low-level shear, as shown in the GFS analysis at 12Z. The "spout index" (coloured lines) is clearly a maximum in the far north.



It's a similar situation tomorrow, with a more widespread risk throughout the country, so keep an eye out around early afternoon as boundary layer turbulence is greatest. See the 24 hr GFS forecast below (HiRLAM is showing something similar).



With slack steering winds but a shortwave upper trough, enhanced low level moisture and strong solar heating in the southern half of the country, we should see a convergence zone form there in the afternoon, which will aid convection. The sounding for the area shows decent CAPE, but with poor shear, so short sharp pulse storms should occur, bringing downpours to some areas. Watch the satellite and radar from around lunchtime and we should see some action. Could be a lot of sferics on the maps by this time tomorrow, and a further risk of funnels.

Bsal

Looking good for the afternoon alright

Iancar29

Sitting here in Terminal 2 with a nice cuppa and a croissant . What else to do than check the latest for some activity here!

Estofex going nicely today for some activity in around a good portion of the country today.



Some nice cape over the country.
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_cape_eur15.png

DLS is good if not better than yesterday.
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_icape_eur15.png

A Seriously good prospect for some funnels with the spout index being better again than yesterday!
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_spout_eur15.png

Some decent hail could be possible to today especially on higher terrain.
Activity will die away towards sunset due to diurnal heating.

Eyes on the skies today folks... timelapses , photos , videos the whole lot! ha

If i was to go to chase somewhere today id porbably choose somewhere inland with some good height for a nice view.

tylercollins

red circle on the spout index right above me! NICE!! Pity I'm stuck in ****ing work

h57xiucj2z946q

Iancar29 wrote: »

Sitting here in Terminal 2 with a nice cuppa and a croissant . What else to do than check the latest for some activity here!

Where you off to ?

demakinz

Have a great time chasing Iancar, Hopefully some action at home today.

Larbre34

Some high hourly totals being reported in the north midlands from those intense cells. The rainfall radar animation is very interesting for this morning, very little movement on the trough due to the light winds but the way its 'flowering' is remarkable. I'm sure someone can fill us in on the mechanics of whats happening there. Unusual so early in the day as well, could be a very entertaining afternoon around the Country, Met E even calling for Dublin to see some storms by this evening after having a very benign day yesterday, looking forward to some action here!

Meanwhile Met E are also ramping this Thursday/Friday rain event, do we need a June 14th - 15th thread?

redsteveireland

Larbre34 wrote: »

Some high hourly totals being reported in the north midlands from those intense cells. The rainfall radar animation is very interesting for this morning, very little movement on the trough due to the light winds but the way its 'flowering' is remarkable. I'm sure someone can fill us in on the mechanics of whats happening there. Unusual so early in the day as well, could be a very entertaining afternoon around the Country, Met E even calling for Dublin to see some storms by this evening after having a very benign day yesterday, looking forward to some action here!

Meanwhile Met E are also ramping this Thursday/Friday rain event, do we need a June 14th - 15th thread?

Just came on to post the same thing, very unusual to watch on the radar.

dopolahpec

It has been making extraordinarily heavy rain in Saggart for past 30 minutes.