Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

Redsunset

Yes as Su as mentioned things could get very interesting as a touch of a Spanish plume looks to head our way. Spain and Portugal are in for serious heat this week and the low approaching from the west will help to reach down and scoop up some of that hot air. Fireworks with downpours are a good bet as things should become unstable.

torrentum

Any updates on the possibility of lightning from tomorrow onwards? Is it still on?

megatron989

Hot and heavy here in dalkey, really feels like thunder at some point. Lots of dark clouds about also, looking forward to next 48 hours to see if anything comes of it.

Redsunset

Just had a quick look and I've a feeling that this won't materialize into much. Over night rain lasting into the morning in some places but fireworks display could be a non event unfortunately . Most likely a Nowcast.

Su Campu

redsunset wrote: »

Just had a quick look and I've a feeling that this won't materialize into much. Over night rain lasting into the morning in some places but fireworks display could be a non event unfortunately . Most likely a Nowcast.

I disagree. The Lightning Wizard Hirlam and GFS charts are both in excellent agreement that conditions will be ripe for some thundery showers tomorrow afternoon, most likely through the east midlands, north Leinster and eastern Ulster. Rich boundary layer moisture should yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and equilibrium temperature of around -30 °C, and with deep layer shear of around 40 knots. I'd expect to see showers getting going around lunchtime and intensifying as they move northeastwards. There's also the chance of spotting a few funnels too, with up to 200 J/kg 0-2 km CAPE.

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

Hal1

Today was good but no sun on the surface.

Elmer Blooker

1.00. That rain seems to be intensifying as it moves eastwards but the fact that it's so quiet around here obviously means there's no lightning around. It certainly feels very thundery.

delw

Dub airport showing 18c at 1am
lovely night out there, haven't felt a night like this for a while but hopefully we get some sparks later

HungryJoey

Very warm tonight, bucketing down in D15 now.

DominoDub

Heavy rain Dublin CC

Su Campu

ESTOFEX are going for a Level 1 over Ireland and UK today and tonight, with even the possibility of a night-time MCS!

In fact, conditions are not too dissimilar to July 25th, 1985, with warm and moist low levels in place as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. I just wonder if we could see a repeat!

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK and Ireland mainly for heavy rainfall amounts, isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough is still situated over NE/E-Europe with another trough approaching western Europe during the forecast. Weak ridging in-between covers parts of the Mediterranean area.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of Spain, Bay of Biscay, parts of France, UK and Ireland ...

An extensive warm sector evolves over the area of interest ahead of an approaching trough over the E-Atlantic. A pronounced EML mixes to the N/NE during the day and overspreads a BL with increasing moisture. For this forecast, a medium between GFS and EZ was used regarding surface dewpoint forecast as GFS seems to be too bullish and EZ too reluctant. With dewpoints in the upper tens already present, we would not be surprised to see a few spots in the lower twenties mainly over W/NW France. With steepening lapse rates atop, capped MLCAPE exceeds 1kJ/kg during the afternoon hours onwards over NW France with lower values to the east, UK/Ireland and towards N-Spain.

During the daytime hours, a strengthening ridge and intensifying WAA regime probably preclude CI for most parts of the forecast area. The main area of interest will be Ireland and UK, situated along the tip of the ridge, where weaker cap and better forcing probably assist in scattered CI. DLS remains modest with 10-15 m/s forecast, so pulsating storms/isolated organized multicells are possible. This activity weakens during the evening hours.

During the daytime hours, a few thunderstorms also evolve over N-Spain, as a weak PV streamer moves in from the W (beside weak forcing as a mid/upper wave grazes the area of interest). During the evening hours onwards, a few small storm clusters may evolve with a movement to the NE (e.g. offshore over the SE Bay of Biscay and also towards far SW-France). Large hail and an isolated severe wind gust event is possible during the daytime hours (discrete storm mode) with a trend to hevy rain, marginal hail and strong wind gusts during the clustering stage.

The focus then shifts to the west ahead of a weakening short wave, which crosses the Bay of Biscay during the evening hours onwards. The interaction of modest forcing and the aforementioned CAPE plume results in numerous areas, where CI is likely, mainly from NW/W-France to SW-UK/Ireland. A coupled jet configuration will be in place, so current thinking is that numerous large storm clusters evolve with a gradual movement to the E/NE. Shear in all levels increases by 5-10 m/s, so well organized multicells/isolated supercells are likely. The main activity will be elevated with ongoing deep/intense WAA, but we can't exclude a few near surface based storms mainly over NW France, where highest BL moisture is forecast. Conditions seem supportive for a large MCS to affect Ireland and UK during the night. Heavy to isolated excessive rainfall amounts will be the main hazard next to isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. Storms further south (NW/W-France) remain more discrete, so large hail (one or two very large hail events) and a few severe wind gust events are well possible.

Right now, there is no sign that the overnight MCS event may produce any swath of enhanced severe wind gusts over UK/Ireland due to modest LL/mid-level flow and late arrival of strongest forcing. Hence a broad level 1 will cover the risk for now.

Mr Benevolent

Very rare to see an MCS warning for Ireland. Impressive.

jdee99

There has been some activity off the NW coast of Sligo this morning

Redsunset

I'm still very skeptical about today producing anything spectacular. Certainly tonight and tomorrow looks more interesting. Like Su I originally thought that today would produce the goods but remain doubtful now. Perhaps I'm wrong in fact I hope I'm wrong.

Mr Benevolent

redsunset wrote: »

I'm still very skeptical about today producing anything spectacular. Certainly tonight and tomorrow looks more interesting. Like Su I originally thought that today would produce the goods but remain doubtful now. Perhaps I'm wrong in fact I hope I'm wrong.

ESTOFEX does pinpoint tonight as the best time for an MCS. Not much will happen today as such.

thomasj

traecy1 wrote: »

I_smell_fear wrote: »

I honestly cannot understand how you managed to use so many words to describe that video..

Well this is a weather forum. What kind of stuff were you expecting to see.

This has to be the most thanked post on boards :eek:

torrentum

Wr are long long overdue for a repeat of 1985. I'll charge my camera batteries. If anything happens I'll share the pics here. Fingers crossed....

positron

With all the talk of "monsoon", here's two short clips I took when the pre-monsoon drizzle arrived in Kerala (India) earlier this month. (Real monsoon arrived the day I left).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx9OUvtkXS0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laEQNjuwJBc

Iancar29

Hello folks! Glad to be back and to be bringing some possible good storms back with me !


My take on the situation is that tonight into tomorrow will be the best chance for some sparks to occur as the atmosphere destabilises with the arrival of the CF tonight .

Models are keen on breaking out some storms from the early hours of tomorrow . With good DLS , storms will have the potential to last for a few hours and perhaps cluster together into the MCS which has been mentioned in forecasts as high theta-e plume destabilises ,rotating updrafts in these storms could bring isolated moderate size hail.

Storms forming in the early morning hours and heading NE



East coast / Irish Sea could be the starting point of the main MSC which will head NE towards scotland.


So for me , being in the jet lagged state that im in , id probably be asleep early to be awake around 4/ 5 am to start checking radar and that.

WOuldnt rule out a small storm or 2 though in the midlands later where Dewpoints in the high teens coupled with good surface heating destabilises the atmosphere towards evening.

Will be interesting to see how things fold out!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Nice little bunch of strikes south of Ireland now on Sat24

Madpaddy79

How come ME and MT and TAFs ( well tafs are usually a good bit off anyway ) have nothing about tonight / tomorrow??

BEASTERLY

Remember this? Hoping for a repeat tonight.

Iancar29

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

How come ME and MT and TAFs ( well tafs are usually a good bit off anyway ) have nothing about tonight / tomorrow??

Quote MT

TONIGHT ... Very mild and humid, lows 12-15 C, some thundery rain could develop across south towards early morning hours.

THURSDAY ... Not quite as warm, very humid still, and outbreaks of heavy rain with some thunder, even a bit of hail in some cases, winds not very strong but could become gusty from south to southwest near more intense cells, highs 17-19 C. Rainfalls rather variable but heavier cells could easily drop 20-30 mms in 1-3 hours leading to local flooding. In this pattern, Laois, Kildare, Meath and east Ulster may be most at risk although the heavier showers will likely be hit or miss in many regions.

Madpaddy79

Iancar29 wrote: »

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

How come ME and MT and TAFs ( well tafs are usually a good bit off anyway ) have nothing about tonight / tomorrow??

Quote MT

TONIGHT ... Very mild and humid, lows 12-15 C, some thundery rain could develop across south towards early morning hours.

THURSDAY ... Not quite as warm, very humid still, and outbreaks of heavy rain with some thunder, even a bit of hail in some cases, winds not very strong but could become gusty from south to southwest near more intense cells, highs 17-19 C. Rainfalls rather variable but heavier cells could easily drop 20-30 mms in 1-3 hours leading to local flooding. In this pattern, Laois, Kildare, Meath and east Ulster may be most at risk although the heavier showers will likely be hit or miss in many regions.

The word SOME, would lead one to think not much of a big deal, a rumble or 2, no warning that he uses for exteme weather as being highlighted here as a possibility.⚡

BEASTERLY

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

The word SOME, would lead one to think not much of a big deal, a rumble or 2, no warning that he uses for exteme weather as being highlighted here as a possibility.⚡

That image i posted of recorded strikes was from the 15th July 2010. I remember it was flagged on here but Met Eireann did not pick it up at until 10pm when she started to rumble off the Wexford coast.

torrentum

BEASTERLY wrote: »

That image i posted of recorded strikes was from the 15th July 2010. I remember it was flagged on here but Met Eireann did not pick it up at until 10pm when she started to rumble off the Wexford coast.

Very true I remember that too

Trogdor

That development South of Ireland is looking very nice, might clip up past wexford this evening.

Madpaddy79

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

The word SOME, would lead one to think not much of a big deal, a rumble or 2, no warning that he uses for exteme weather as being highlighted here as a possibility.⚡

That image i posted of recorded strikes was from the 15th July 2010. I remember it was flagged on here but Met Eireann did not pick it up at until 10pm when she started to rumble off the Wexford coast.

That would sound about right to me, would expect a big change in the evening forecast. ðŸ‘

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann update- Tonight:The showers will merge into longer spells of rain and there will be some heavy even torrential falls of rain in parts of Munster, Connacht and Leinster at first tonight. These falls will cause localised flooding in these areas. This heavy rain will spread northwards overnight. A mild and humid night with lowest temperatures of 13 to 15 degrees in moderate south to southeast winds.

lolie

Heard a rumble to my east bout 10 mins ago, nothin since.
Few showers building up on the radar