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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012
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Casement reported thunder with distant precipitation at 2 pm yesterday but no sferic shows for it on the map. It just goes to prove the value of human observations and how the automation of stations is having an effect.
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One to watch for Wednesday Morning ...
All main parameters are there for some early morning action..
LI - 3 with some few hundred Cape in places , DLS is 12-18 m/s in places.. small cool air pocket around -20c will give some decent lapse rates and the moisture is also there too. ... The only ... smaaaaalll problem.... it wasnt there on the last run.. ha . So ye .. ONE TO WATCH!
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Hammer Archer wrote: »Looking good for Friday afternoon.
Shh!!... dont say anything about Friday yet... we dont want it Jinxed!
Plus... im in work at 5 on fridays !
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Though theres still some chance of some small storms popping up later on in the midlands.. 2moro is looking very interesting indeed!
Storms could pop up almost anywhere and with the decent shear values, there could be some nicely organised ones in places too!
Id imagine with any organised cell that pops up , funnels will be likely
ONE TO WATCH! 0 -
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Tomorrow was always looking like the most interesting day of this week, much more than Wednesday. The only thing lacking is decent deep layer shear, but everything else is in place for some pretty deep convection, especially in Munster, Connaught and the midlands, leading to slow-moving thundery downpours. The south and southwest are looking particularly good for funnels, with low LCL, up to 25 kt 0-1 km shear and plenty of low level CAPE. Expect the sferic maps to light up during the day. 0
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By Nick F on Net Weather.Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 03/07/2012 10:30
Forecast Summary Map
Storm Risk Forecast
Valid: 03/08/2012 10:00 - 04/08/2012 06:00
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...
Synopsis
Slow-moving upper and collocated surface low close to western Ireland today will drive an unstable cyclonic SWerly flow across the UK,
... IRELAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA, N ENGLAND & S SCOTLAND ...
Convection will increase in coverage from the SW/W through the morning, as surface heating combined with mid-levels cooling from the west steepen lapse rates. Low-mid level lapse rates will be steepest over Ireland, western, central and northern parts of the UK - so here convection will be strongest and most likely to favour the developemnt of scattered thundestorms by/during the afternoon.
Weak deep vertical shear and lack of high temps will mean storm organisation with a severe threat is unlikely, storms may produce hail, gusty winds and may cause minor localised flooding. Stronger low-level instability and low level shear indicated across Ireland this afternoon could mean more buoyant/strong updrafts rotate to allow an isolated weak tornado with any storms here, particularly where winds back ahead of low tracking across S Ireland. Storms should fade after dark.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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