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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012
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found the met eireann report for yesterday, I'm in the little strip at the bottom, blue and purpleish... Still no phone, satellite broadband, or sky, none of them will be fixed in a while it seems, so bring on tomorrow...:) (but please storm, don't blow the roof off the shed...)0 -
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Some nice potential for some storms tonight again in the Midlands ... and even in the East!!
They will struggle to initiate at first but if they do theres an abundance of DLS and LLS for some SERIOUS structured storms !
Plus the hi res here is probably hinting at some orographic lift to get things going in the east!
If anyone wants to try chase this evening id gladly help with petrol costs. 0 -
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Yup... If i was you id go somewhere high to get a good view of storms not only heading ur way but ones that pass over too. FIngers crossed
I know you have experience at chasing storms but I've always heard that the last place you want to be is in a high exposed area during an electrical storm or anywhere near trees.
Unless of course you mean staying in your car?0 -
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downwiththatsor wrote: »Met Eireanns 3 hour forecast map for 15.00
http://www.met.ie/weathermaps/3hr-rain.gif
shows the predicted heavy rain further west than the NAE, will this rain be countrywide or heaviest in the East as the NAE predicted?
Well it looks intense on the latest 3 hour forecast now and heading for the south west it looks like
I always find the NAE pretty accurate, sure the timeframe isnt till around 7pm onwards and Met Eireann will hav there next 3hr forecast out by then.Simon Gruber Says wrote: »I know you have experience at chasing storms but I've always heard that the last place you want to be is in a high exposed area during an electrical storm or anywhere near trees.
Unless of course you mean staying in your car?
Haha ye true true! ... You'd really want to have internet connection to see the radar . But yes, if the storm is putting down bolts which the thunder is less than a few seconds away then be best to stay in your car.
go to 1.00 0 -
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Sephiroth_dude wrote: »How do you mean?its gonna get worse?
no no.. theres no discrete looking cells that look thundery.. there wasnt enough instability....
Ah sure... 2moro is another day 0 -
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HERE WE GO AGAIN! .... Hoping for some clearance 2moro!!!
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 17 Aug 2012 06:00 to Sat 18 Aug 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Aug 2012 18:22
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of the UK mainly for a strong to severe wind gust and tornado event.
A level 1 was issued for Ireland mainly for an isolated large hail event.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Downstream of an intense cyclonic vortex west of Ireland, WAA spreads to the northeast with a substantial increase of the 500 geopotential heights, reinforcing another omega-like pattern over Europe. A quasi-stationary longwave trough over E-Europe builds more to the south, reaching the E-Mediterranean with subtle height falls during the end of the forecast. Cool and unsettled conditions prevail over N-Europe.
Many places over N/E Europe see some thunderstorm activity, mainly daytime driven and sub-severe. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts accompany those storms.
A belt of strong SW-erlies (e.g. 30 m/s at 500 hPa) still affects Ireland/UK and Scotland. A first surface wave/trough and attendant pronounced warm front cross those areas from SW to NE during the day with pretty robust moisture advection forecast. Mid-level lapse rates remain marginal next to expected thick cloud cover, limiting any diabatic heating until noon. Thereafter, some clearing in the posfrontal warm sector is expected and forecast soundings indicate not much modification is needed for some MLCAPE build-up. HIRLAM and GFS both show another surface wave, placed just S of Ireland during the afternoon hours, again inserting some more backing in the BL flow. This assists in the infiltration of a better mixed LL air mass from N-France towards S-UK, where a decrease of dewpoints and an increase of the LCL can be seen during the afternoon. LCLs however remain well below 1000 m just along and south of the warm front over N-C UK. Both, the warm sector and the frontal boundary itself reveal great shear (both directional and speed shear), so if adequate clearing along/south of the warm front occurs, an isolated thunderstorm event is possible with a risk of producing severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado. Coverage probably remains limited with ongoing weak NVA over the area of interest. We also monitor the progress of a dry slot feature, which moves towards Ireland during the afternoon, so some better CAPE and enhanced thunderstorm activity is possible over Irland. 20 m/s DLS may allow a few storms to become better organized with isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. Therefore, a broad lightning area and a second level 1 were added. The thunderstorm and severe risk diminishes after sunset.0
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pity i'll be in cork 
This discussion has been closed.
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