4G

cookie1977

evolutionqy7 wrote: »

Id agree. Think networks will try to milk the cow as long as possible. Even though it could position them to be a better covered and more reliable network.

Couple of years back we seen a very fast roll out of 3G in well populated areas. The rest of the country is still yet to get any. I still know lots of people who can't get 3G in their homes and rely on 2G, including me. All networks I tried have the same crappy coverage in my house, and its not overly insulated.

Id love to see Meteor and Three pick their games up as I think the two need this more than Vodafone or 02. Would be nice to see the day when everywhere I go I have 3G. No need to switch to Wifi.

I dont think meteor/emobile could afford a 4G license at present

Sponge Bob

cookie1977 wrote: »

I dont think meteor/emobile could afford a 4G license at present

True, and the competition pricing was skewed to get them a licence. Problem is that this dramatically lowers any barrier to entry for a putative 5th licencee.

However it is ultimately a contest where 2 strong entities with good 2G spectrum and large customer bases wish to continue their dominance over 2 weak competitors who have nothing much like that and who wish to continue to exert capture control over a weak, dithering, clueless and unprincipled regulator.

Meteor done great to get where they did considering the weakness of their network and crap spectrum. 3 only have around 400k active customers ( some with more than one device) after 7 or 8 years in the market.

In the key 900mhz band 'up to' 7 licences could be awarded and minimum 4 could be awarded ( minimum = 3 x 10mhz and 1 x 5mhz. ) subject to meeting minimum reserve prices only.

After May 2013 ( or so) a new entrant or an old market player with no 2g spectrum could offer 2G services where they possibly cannot now. I think the O2 cribbing may have been that say (eg) UPC or BT could do so where O2 may not by the 2G spectrum surrender subclause ...but I am not sure.

I thought the wording of the consultation was crap myself, Comreg not understanding combinatorial clock auctions ( pseudopure market pricing) basically. Same as everything Comreg touches then.

ED E

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Meteor done great to get where they did considering the weakness of their network and crap spectrum. 3 only have around 400 active customers ( some with more than one device) after 7 or 8 years in the market.

Really

cookie1977

It's explained nicely here:
http://engage.acma.gov.au/digitaldividend/the-combinatorial-clock-auction/
The combinatorial clock auction that is

Sponge Bob

ED E wrote: »

Really

Missing a K Fixed.

They had around 325k active ( as distinct from registered) customers at the end of 2010. I have assumed around 25% growth since.

pigeon999

Most networks have crappy 3G signal and now there rolling out HSPA+ that proves company's don't really care for existing customers they only want new ones.

pigeon999

Most networks have crappy 3G signal and now there rolling out HSPA+ that proves company's don't really care for existing customers they only want new ones.

JTMan

Eircom have told the High Court that they have set money aside for the 4G auction.

Hence, despite the Eircom examinership, Meteor will be bidding in the 4G auction.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0331/1224314162828.html

It is forecast Meteor’s capital expenditure is likely to average €45 million over the five years. It will have to bid for spectrum in an upcoming licence auction to be held by regulator ComReg. Details of the amount needed for this were not revealed.

evolutionqy7

Fungus wrote: »

Eircom have told the High Court that they have set money aside for the 4G auction.

Hence, despite the Eircom examinership, Meteor will be bidding in the 4G auction.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0331/1224314162828.html

It is forecast Meteor’s capital expenditure is likely to average €45 million over the five years. It will have to bid for spectrum in an upcoming licence auction to be held by regulator ComReg. Details of the amount needed for this were not revealed.

They can't afford not to bid for it.

Sponge Bob

And they need to get some spectrum below 1.8ghz ....rapid. I could see them turning on 900mhz GSM services as fast as they can and never mind 4G.

JTMan

The Sunday Times reports that the target revenue from the mobile operators is 500,000,000 EUR from the 4G auction.

If 4 providers win spectrum, which is probably a big if, that's an average of 125,000,000 EUR per provider.

Sponge Bob

They are off with the fairies if they think they will get €500m. Think €200-250m perhaps.

If they split the country so that one physical shared network could be built in most of it and paid for pro rata 'sims' that use it then they might get nearer €400m but as long as the operators face building their own networks everywhere then no.

€500m if a single RAN covered the entire state perhaps but that is undesirable. Urban and high population areas should have two RANs minimum.

Sponge Bob

Oh and forgot to mention 3 produced their annual report this week that says they now have 420k active customers ( having grown 30% to 2011 since 2010).

I had assumed 25% growth to 400k active customers only a week back but they outperformed by 20k skulls.

The average active customer produces nearly €400 a year in revenue for a total 3 revenue of €150m in 2011, and that was the first time their reveue ever exceeded €100m in a year.

I don't think they could afford another €125m ( 1/4 of €500m mentioned in the sunday times) for a bit of spectrum somehow. Neither can Meteor.

O2 have annual revenue amost 5 times higher than 3 ( it was 8 times higher a year ago) and would get severe indigestion at paying €125m for anything seeing as their mobile revenue last year fell 13% to €677m ( and 18% in q4 alone as smartphone users fled O2 as fast as they could). However they noted that drops in outrageous mobile termination rates caused more than half of the 13% fall and that had they remaine static they would have decline by half that.

JTMan

Sponge Bob wrote: »

They are off with the fairies if they think they will get €500m. Think €200-250m perhaps.

Thanks for your interesting detailed comments Sponge Bob but I think you are off the mark with the financial figures.

The minimum amount Comreg will get is 410,000,000 EUR.

(13 * 20,000,000) + (15 * 10,000,000) = 410,000,000 EUR.

This obviously assumes that all licenses are sold which I think they will be.

JTMan

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I don't think they could afford another €125m ( 1/4 of €500m mentioned in the sunday times) for a bit of spectrum somehow. Neither can Meteor.

Hutchison Whampoa are cash rich. They can afford to pay 125,000,000 EUR without a shadow of a doubt. They are very future focused and will want this spectrum.

Having said that, Hutchison Whampoa have criticised Comreg for the high minimum prices and the snail pace slow auction process.

Eircom told the Sunday times that it will "hopefully be participating" in the 4G auction.

Sponge Bob

Fungus wrote: »

T

The minimum amount Comreg will get is 410,000,000 EUR.

(13 * 20,000,000) + (15 * 10,000,000) = 410,000,000 EUR.

This obviously assumes that all licenses are sold which I think they will be.

The minimum amount Comreg want will get is 410,000,000 EUR.

I don't thiink they will be sold, I could see no more than 8 x €20m and 2 x €10m getting off the mark.

Thats 1 x 800mhz and 1 x 900mhz each ( total 8 x €20m ) and with O2 and Voda taking 1 x 1800mhz each (for total 2 x €10m) giving a grand total of €180m in this round....and not for a penny more than €20m or €10m as applicable.

Where on EARTH did you get the notion that all 15 blocks in the 1800mhz spectrum will be sold at €10m per block???

UPC will likely wait till the 2500mhz auction in 2013. I can't see anyone else bothering at all except for the 4 amigos we have today.

JTMan

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Where on EARTH did you get the notion that all 15 blocks in the 1800mhz spectrum will be sold at €10m per block???

Comreg seem very confident.

The Sunday Times article today believed that they will all be sold.

The IMF/EU/ECB Trokia quarterly report seemed confident of hitting the 500,000,000 EUR mark.

Granted, they could all be wrong.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

UPC will likely wait till the 2500mhz auction in 2013. I can't see anyone else bothering at all except for the 4 amigos we have today.

The Sunday Times said that 7 parties are sniffing around the 4G licenses. Our 4 amigos, UPC, Digiweb and Imagine.

Until recently I thought that UPC might 'do a Virgin Media' and bid for 4G spectrum. However, recent interviews by Dana Strong, the chief executive of UPC Ireland, clearly show that UPC are signalling that they are not interested. She keeps talking about a "conservative approach" and a "light investment" approach. Seems that she is trying to say that they are happy with the Eircom MVNO approach only.

I can't see Digiweb or Imagine having the cash for a bid.

Hence, agreed, our 4 amigos, will most likely be the only ones that end up with licenses.

Sponge Bob

Fungus wrote: »

Comreg seem very confident.

The Sunday Times article today believed that they will all be sold.

The IMF/EU/ECB Trokia quarterly report seemed confident of hitting the 500,000,000 EUR mark.

Granted, they could all be wrong.

If we are relying on Comreg to save us from the IMF then we are surely fusked. I'll stick by my prediction of a maximum €200m-250m from this round and Comreg will have to roll another round out in 2013 along with the 2.5ghz blocks. That won't raise more than a few 10s of €ms neither.

Obviously a hungry sunday times journo was fed and watered by Comreg (on generous Comreg expenses) to get the Comreg story out there. No other explanation for this BS.

The Sunday Times said that 7 parties are sniffing around the 4G licenses. Our 4 amigos, UPC, Digiweb and Imagine.

Luls The same Imagine that is trying to get $100m off Motorola on some spurious ground or other. Sure they have €20m to spare. Digiweb may punt for an 800mhz block as part of a consortium I will concede. That will get us to €200m...whoops de doop. €300m short of what Comreg and Rabbitte told the IMF.

Until recently I thought that UPC might 'do a Virgin Media' and bid for 4G spectrum. However, recent interviews by Dana Strong, the chief executive of UPC Ireland, clearly show that UPC are signalling that they are not interested. She keeps talking about a "conservative approach" and a "light investment" approach. Seems that she is trying to say that they are happy with the Eircom MVNO approach only.

I can't see Digiweb or Imagine having the cash for a bid.

Hence, agreed, our 4 amigos, will most likely be the only ones that end up with licenses.

Agree largely with all that. I would see UPC bidding for 2500mhz ( at realistic reserve prices mind) in 2013 though but not for the expensive low frequency blocks.

So 4 x 800 an 4 x 900 and 2 x 1800 and possibly 1x 900 or 800 for Digiweb = €200m . I'll stick on that.

JTMan

If you are right, then the government is going to have a gap of a further 300,000,000 EUR in revenue, far more than the Household Charge total income, this year. This will be need to be plugged in the 2013 budget. Here comes more austerity.

Let's hope it is not all smoke, mirrors and lies and that there is a solid basis to suggest that 500,000,000 EUR will be raised.

We will know the outcome in late July, if there are not further Comreg delays.

Sponge Bob

If Comreg and the civil servants in the Dept of Comms ever arrived at that €500m figure and told the IMF about it then all I can say is God Help us come late July.

A €300m shortfall is the most likely outcome. Possibly even more.

JTMan

As for the 500,000,000 EUR ...

Comreg said they were set at the “conservative lower” end of an international benchmark. Comreg will limit the amount any one bidder can acquire.

Comreg are either away with the fairies or believe that 500k EUR can be achieved.

JTMan

There is a good article in this weeks Mobile about why we will need all this extra spectrum.

Mobile data demands 'could grow 30 times by 2030'

http://www.mobiletoday.co.uk/News/20489/mobile_data_demands_could_soar_30_consultation.aspx

demands for mobile data, which could increase 30-fold by 2030, has prompted Ofcom to investigate freeing up more spectrum to cope.

The regulator has launched a consultation to investigate the possibility of using the 700MHz band after 2018. The band is currently being used for digital and terrestrial television. The regulator said operators will need help in their attempts to satisfy soaring demand, whether it is through them upgrading services for 4G, offloading mobile data onto wi-fi or femtocell or building more mobile sites.

Sponge Bob

That would be demand for data. On the other hand network edges can be chopped up into really small cells ( think 2600 Femto and 802.11ad 802.11ac encapsulated over Femto and Pico with fibre offload as well as wireless ) meaning the same slab of spectrum can create 1000 separate cells in Dublin 2 where the current smaller slab of spectrum results in say 100 separate cells in Dublin 2.

There is no evidence that networks can charge any more per month for all this extra shoveling around is there Fungus.?

JTMan

It is not beyond belief that the telcos will invent 4G fees and blurry the fees knee deep in a layers of complexity

Anyway ... Comreg are talking up 4G again.

http://wirelessfederation.com/news/92524-ireland-plans-to-raise-us-660-million-from-4g-auction-ireland/

Comreg said competition levels may lead to an increase in the price.

pigeon999

Fungus wrote: »

It is not beyond belief that the telcos will invent 4G fees and blurry the fees knee deep in a layers of complexity

Anyway ... Comreg are talking up 4G again.

http://wirelessfederation.com/news/92524-ireland-plans-to-raise-us-660-million-from-4g-auction-ireland/

Comreg said competition levels may lead to an increase in the price.

Late July!!!! Angry face. I'm going upstairs to sulk for the night. You'd never guess it was the Irish Government.

Sponge Bob

I'll run a cartel collusionometer on here over the course of the 'auction' where ye can shadow bid for spectrum.

stevenmu

Personally I think this auction format is very short sighted. It seems that their goal is to raise as much once off cash as possible, which will lead to providers buying as little spectrum as they think they can get away with, and it will lead to them charging huge prices for tiny data allowances.

Cheap plentiful mobile data would be a huge benefit to our supposed high-tech knowledge economy. A far better solution would be to charge providers relatively small amounts for spectrum, if they agree to certain service levels, such as providing lots of bandwidth, high/unlimited data caps, and reasonable prices.