Buying in a partial ghost estate

preddy

Hi,

Currenly looking at a property outside Dublin which we see as good value and in great condition. 7yo
Problem is: upto 30 houses in the estate are unfinished but not yet sold or even up for sale, they are dotted around the estate with 20 near where the house im looking at is, estate has 200 houses but is spaciusly laid out.
Agent said the developer is planning on finishing and relaunching them but we have concerns that some of the houses in estate are not built to as good standard so we dont want to wait for them.

1. Whats the risks? We are buying long term so should affect our resale value.
2. If the council hasn't taken over whats the consequences? Area well kept.
3. How low of an offer should we put in 10% less?

Any other opinions on the matter of partial ghost estates ?

not even wrong

preddy wrote: »

3. How low of an offer should we put in 10% less?

Ignore the asking price, it is meaningless. Your offer should be based on what similar houses in the same area are selling for (mind: not going "sale agreed", actually selling for).

As for the ghost estate, I don't know why you would take a risk like that in the current climate.

Agent said the developer is planning on finishing and relaunching them

did he manage to keep a straight face while he said that?

preddy

not even wrong wrote: »

Ignore the asking price, it is meaningless. Your offer should be based on what similar houses in the same area are selling for (mind: not going "sale agreed", actually selling for).

As for the ghost estate, I don't know why you would take a risk like that in the current climate.did he manage to keep a straight face while he said that?

This hse has a 10-20k lower asking price then the rest of the houses.
You cant easily find the sale price of other houses.

What are the risks? Its not a building site, other houses look finished from the outside.


He did but why wouldn't he want to sell the houses even if they needed some work assuming hes not in money trouble (EA said hes not in Nama or anything like that)

athtrasna

A 7 year old house is likely to be in an estate with a management company. You need to find out if this is the case and get hold of the most recently filed accounts from the CRO (for a small fee, a few euro). These accounts should give you an idea of the health of the management company bearing in mind they will own any common areas..greens, sewage, road surfaces within the development. The council won't take unfinished estates in control so you would be looking at paying fees for these services.

preddy

When I search the estate name and CRO I see there was a company until 2009 listed as the same name but is now strike off listed???

I'll follow up with EA on that one might be a casual looking after green areas but no mention of fees so far.

athtrasna

If the company is listed for strike off don't even think of buying there. There are so many legal complications. Don't believe a word the agent says on this either...if you want advice on this one talk to a solicitor.

preddy

Council advise the estate is in process of being transfered to their care and should be completeted in the next few months....

jmayo

preddy wrote: »

Hi,

Currenly looking at a property outside Dublin which we see as good value and in great condition. 7yo
Problem is: upto 30 houses in the estate are finished but not yet sold or even up for sale, they are dotted around the estate with 20 near where the house im looking at is, estate has 200 houses but is spaciusly laid out.
Agent said the developer is planning on finishing and relaunching them but we have concerns that some of the houses in estate are not built to as good standard so we dont want to wait for them.

1. Whats the risks? We are buying long term so should affect our resale value.
2. If the council hasn't taken over whats the consequences? Area well kept.
3. How low of an offer should we put in 10% less?

Any other opinions on the matter of partial ghost estates ?

Have no desire to live in an estate anymore, but even if I did I would not touch a ghost estate or one with a sizable volume of houses unsold.

You just do not know what is going to happen to those houses.
Could they be taken into ownership and rented out ?
It looks like a good possibility.
And there are enough horror stories around here about a certain type of people allocated social housing by local council/HSE and what they do to their neighbours to make me worry.

Now before the self righteous brigade arrive I know a some good decent fine people who who need/are using social housing and I expect the majority are just fine.
The thing is I would not want to take the chance that I could end up living beside the bad ones, because then you are truly stuck paying for a home that is hell.
The odds could be 50/1 or 100/1 that this could happen.
Would anyone here put a bet of 100,000 to 150,000 at 1/50 or 1/100 ?

Monty Burnz

preddy wrote: »

This hse has a 10-20k lower asking price then the rest of the houses.
You cant easily find the sale price of other houses.

Start by offering half what you are willing to pay. The guy might be so astonished at getting an offer that he takes your arm off.

pawnacide

Really depends on your definition of a ghost estate. If you buy a house in any estate chances are there are unfinished houses in it. To get an idea from the agent ask the following questions.

Was the show house open at all times .. if not why not ?
When was the last house finished ?
Did they ever stop selling/ building ?
When was the last one sold ?
Has the estate changed hands ?
Is there a residents association ?

Any estate still on the go should've been selling about 5/6 houses a year even during the bust. If not I'd say there's a serious problem. Either the developer can't afford to build em or is unwilling to be realistic.

I know of only one developer (4 estates dotted around Dublin and the Midlands) that never stopped building and selling. I'd like to hear from others if ye know of any.

preddy

From what the EA said he was selling them up until the bust then ppl stopped buying so he stopped trying to sell and has them sitting being unrealistic waiting for an up swing,
The EA said he met with him last year on a relaunch but decided to hold out and is looking to relaunch this year, hes not gone bust or anything.
But if all thats true well and good if all true.

Also the hse we are looking at was built by and is owned by the Developers son who has since moved to a new built hse and had this property rented to a friend of his for last 2 years.
Would make sense hes selling now if his father is planning on a relaunch at a reduced price of other hses.....

pawnacide

Sorry but that sounds like lies to me. Decently built houses in desirable estates are/were always sellable. Prices needed to drop, thats a given, but any well financed developer would've done that.

My problem is that why did the estate agent stop trying to sell them and he hasn't really answered that yet. It's not as if prices are going up and the developer is happier now.

It sounds to me and this is very common these days that while he may not be in NAMA per se the banks are in control of the estate. I can see no other reason for the building stop or lack of sales.

But if as you say this is devs son's house then it's a simple enough choice .. do you like the house enough. 30 unsold houses out of 200 is not really that significant and certainly wouldn't be considered a ghost estate.

pawnacide

Sry just read op again .. 30 out of 200 houses completed ?

Don't touch it with someone else's bargepole, never mind your own.

preddy

pawnacide wrote: »

Sry just read op again .. 30 out of 200 houses completed ?

Don't touch it with someone else's bargepole, never mind your own.

No sorry 200 houses, 30 of which are unoccupied. 170 are lived in.

the_syco

preddy wrote: »

estate has 200 houses but is spaciusly laid out.

How many caravans could park next to the vacant houses, and are they in a clump, or dotted throughout the estate?

=-=

Come back at 11pm when it's dark, and see if any of the streets lights are turned on; a lot of the half finished estates will have some items like this missing.

Come back at 10pm on a Saturday night, and see are any of the vacant houses are "occupied" by teenagers; long-term vacant houses that are known to be empty may draw anti-social elements.

=-=

Next to the 30 unfinished houses, is there a big field? This would usually mean that the developer ran out of money, and couldn't build any more houses, but couldn't finish the ones that were built. It would also mean that a few corners may have been cut to make the houses "look" finished.

The son owning the house sounds like the developer transferred assets out of his name to his son - looking at other NAMA cases, the transferral of wealth to their families in the hope NAMA can't take it back seems to be a trend with develops recently...

preddy

the_syco wrote: »

How many caravans could park next to the vacant houses, and are they in a clump, or dotted throughout the estate?

=-=

Come back at 11pm when it's dark, and see if any of the streets lights are turned on; a lot of the half finished estates will have some items like this missing.

Come back at 10pm on a Saturday night, and see are any of the vacant houses are "occupied" by teenagers; long-term vacant houses that are known to be empty may draw anti-social elements.

=-=

Next to the 30 unfinished houses, is there a big field? This would usually mean that the developer ran out of money, and couldn't build any more houses, but couldn't finish the ones that were built. It would also mean that a few corners may have been cut to make the houses "look" finished.

The son owning the house sounds like the developer transferred assets out of his name to his son - looking at other NAMA cases, the transferral of wealth to their families in the hope NAMA can't take it back seems to be a trend with develops recently...

20 Clumped together near a green but facing a green, yes we heard corners were cut on some of the houses but as I said the Son built this house for himself and lived in it form the beginning, he just built a new house on a site and kept this 2 years too long.

Spoke to ower of another hse who said no problems in area ati-social wise.

the_syco

preddy wrote: »

20 Clumped together near a green but facing a green, yes we heard corners were cut on some of the houses but as I said the Son built this house for himself and lived in it form the beginning, he just built a new house on a site and kept this 2 years too long.

Spoke to ower of another hse who said no problems in area ati-social wise.

Was the owner of the other house able to confirm the developers sons story? Maybe I'm being cynical, but it sounds dodge to me.

ebixa82

I think you are probably the first person to positively want to move into a ghost estate!

Fair play but you have to be willing to live with the consequences.

What will happen the other 30? More than likely social housing. Undesirable neighbours which will allow the estate to run down causing the value of others to plummet.

Who is in charge of maintenance? Who will fix the cracks in the road and the dodgy street lights.

30 empty houses which are also 30 death traps for curious kids.

Up to you!

preddy

ebixa82 wrote: »

I think you are probably the first person to positively want to move into a ghost estate!

Fair play but you have to be willing to live with the consequences.

What will happen the other 30? More than likely social housing. Undesirable neighbours which will allow the estate to run down causing the value of others to plummet.

Who is in charge of maintenance? Who will fix the cracks in the road and the dodgy street lights.

30 empty houses which are also 30 death traps for curious kids.

Up to you!

Well what really determines a ghost estate?
These 30 hses out of 200 are finished just didnt sell and need some superficial work and being looked after, lawns cut etc open areas in estate are also being kept.
Council says its in process of being handed over, few months to completion.

No current social houes in the estate and from what we know developer hoping to relaunch them (not as well built as house we are looking at)

jmayo

preddy wrote: »

Well what really determines a ghost estate?
These 30 hses out of 200 are finished just didnt sell and need some superficial work and being looked after, lawns cut etc open areas in estate are also being kept.
Council says its in process of being handed over, few months to completion.

No current social houes in the estate and from what we know developer hoping to relaunch them (not as well built as house we are looking at)

To me you really appear to be looking for someone to rubber stamp your decision to buy here ?

You are looking at all the positives and are believing anything that feeds into that positive outlook.
Thus you believe that the developer is going to relaunch and magically find 30 buyers in the current market, there is no social housing in the estate and those 30 unsold houses have no chance of ever been used for social housing, the council are going to take over the estate in a few months, the developers son's house is special, etc.

You say that those 30 houses only "need some superficial work and being looked after".
How long do you think that this will continue if buyers are not found ?

Sorry but as a fairly pessimistic and cynical person, I think there are too many ifs and buts in your rosey outlook.
I don't mean to rain on your parade, but if you are stretching yourself financially to buy this and you want it as your residence long term then I think you could be headed for trouble.
If you can chance turning this into an investment property and are financially capable then fire ahead.

ebixa82

"Developer planning to re-launch". I'd be VERY surprised is this the case.

Easy to say this and obviously makes things look a whole lot rosier.

Also, if this doesn't happen, there's only so much maintenance that will be done on those derelict houses.

preddy

jmayo wrote: »

To me you really appear to be looking for someone to rubber stamp your decision to buy here ?

I think your right.
We wont be stretching ourselves and its a good deal from where it would have been. Asking is 10k less then next hse in estate with same layout.

We will see what happens, EA is pulling out the other offer card.

Thx for the advise!

djimi

If it was me I would be holding off until all promises/assurances have come good before Id commit to buy. If the council maintenance falls through or the developer doesnt follow through on his planned relaunch then you could end up owning a house in an estate that noone will want to purchase it from you if/when the time comes.

This house may be well priced but there is no shortage of good deals out there. Its a buyers market, and prices are only going to continue to fall. Do not rush into this just because it seems like a good price now.