Fiscal Treaty Referendum.....How will you vote?

Ozymandius2011

dvpower wrote: »

Those figures show quite strong and consistant growth while we were in the EZ, right up to the crash.

Almost wiped out at this stage. It was a property bubble and the ECB interest rates are largely responsible. It is the traditional role of monetary policy to control inflation. Spain, Portugal and Greece have also been engulfed by this phenomenon. The Euro has failed the economies oin the periphery.

Happyman42

Deleted User wrote: »

A property bubble is considered growth ?

It is if you are part of the elite. Get so rich in the bubbles, so that when the whole thing collapses, they can take some away from you but you have ferretted enough away to continue living like a king or queen.
If only those that bolster the elite would open their eyes, Bertie, Sean Quinn, Seanie Fitz, Drumm, right down to yer man (can't think of his name) the Dublin planner caught trying to bring the loot out of the country in a suitcase. And they call the Left loons???? :rolleyes:

Happyman42

Happyman42 wrote: »

It is if you are part of the elite. Get so rich in the bubbles, so that when the whole thing collapses, they can take some away from you but you have ferretted enough away to continue living like a king or queen.
If only those that bolster the elite would open their eyes, Bertie, Sean Quinn, Seanie Fitz, Drumm, right down to yer man (can't think of his name) the Dublin planner caught trying to bring the loot out of the country in a suitcase. And they call the Left loons???? :rolleyes:

I`m more of a hard right when it comes to economics but
still agree that the treaty is the best way for the corrupt politicians and their friends to preserve the status quo.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Deleted User wrote: »

I`m more of a hard right when it comes to economics but
still agree that the treaty is the best way for the corrupt politicians and their friends to preserve the status quo.

Just to clarify your position; it's that the treaty will prevent the severe austerity required to correct the public finances?

Or have I got that totally wrong?

Ozymandius2011

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Almost wiped out at this stage. It was a property bubble and the ECB interest rates are largely responsible. It is the traditional role of monetary policy to control inflation. Spain, Portugal and Greece have also been engulfed by this phenomenon. The Euro has failed the economies oin the periphery.

Correct. Our only defence from the bubble was fiscal policy. Our corrupt politicians blew the money. The treaty does nothing to prevent this corruption.
During the bubble the politicians relied on property bubble related taxes when these stopped we ended up with a huge deficit. The treaty does nothing to prevent this kind of situation.

Vote yes and we borrow for years more taking on more debt eventually just our interest repayments will be a huge portion of our national income.

Vote no and we have to try balance the budget sooner or risk a lack of funding. Some cry Armageddon.


Choose your poison.

PopeBuckfastXVI

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Just to clarify your position; it's that the treaty will prevent the severe austerity required to correct the public finances?

Or have I got that totally wrong?

Ireland badly needs reform, a long drawn out "austerity" route is least likely to deliver this. Everything from the politicians & their parties to fatcat banksters all the way to the unions needs a good shake up.


Europes pathetic handling of the crisis has not instilled me with confidence for their "solutions". They have dawdled for years now while too many politicians argue in Brussels.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland badly needs reform, a long drawn out "austerity" route is least likely to deliver this. Everything from the politicians & their parties to fatcat banksters all the way to the unions needs a good shake up.

Thanks, I think it's important for people to know why a particular person thinks a 'no' will be better for the country, so they can judge for themselves if they agree.

oscarBravo

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland badly needs reform, a long drawn out "austerity" route is least likely to deliver this. Everything from the politicians & their parties to fatcat banksters all the way to the unions needs a good shake up.

I guess this is true, in much the same way as a magnitude 9 earthquake will get rid of a shanty town more efficiently than an urban renewal program. If all you care about is the result, then the damage inflicted in the process is incidental.

Happyman42

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess this is true, in much the same way as a magnitude 9 earthquake will get rid of a shanty town more efficiently than an urban renewal program. If all you care about is the result, then the damage inflicted in the process is incidental.

Have you ever heard the phrase......'if you're in a hole, stop digging' ? :rolleyes:

Sometimes you have to focibly remove the shovel.

oscarBravo

Happyman42 wrote: »

Have you ever heard the phrase......'if you're in a hole, stop digging' ? :rolleyes:

Sometimes you have to focibly remove the shovel.

I'm sure there is a strong logical connection between my post and your reply in your head, but I'm afraid it hasn't made it this far.

Perhaps you can explain what the hole and the shovel are in your analogy, and I'll try to catch up.

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

Correct. Our only defence from the bubble was fiscal policy.

I suspect you actually mean "monetary policy" (ie, interest rates), in which case that's not only incorrect, but is a very bad error to fall into. There were a variety of things we could have done that we didn't - first and foremost, prudential supervision of the banks - and a variety of things we could have not done that we did - primarily the endless tax breaks for property.

Whichever way you vote tomorrow, and whatever one thinks of the EU or the ECB, it is not the case that the only defence against a bubble is monetary policy. Indeed, control of monetary policy, and interest rates in particular, rarely prevents bubbles, because it is a very blunt instrument - the rates for business borrowing increases along with the rate for mortgages, stifling business expansion.

If, on the other hand, you did mean fiscal policy - that is, how the government influences the economy by spending and taxation - then I'm afraid that was in our hands, and was very much deployed in exacerbating the bubble, not cooling it down,

Deleted User wrote: »

Our corrupt politicians blew the money. The treaty does nothing to prevent this corruption.
During the bubble the politicians relied on property bubble related taxes when these stopped we ended up with a huge deficit. The treaty does nothing to prevent this kind of situation.

Actually, that depends on what you write into the structural deficit measurement. A property bubble is very much a cyclical element.

Deleted User wrote: »

Vote yes and we borrow for years more taking on more debt eventually just our interest repayments will be a huge portion of our national income.

About 19-20% at peak, compared to 28% in 1991. A lot depends on interest rates, obviously, and whether one has access to a lower-rate source such as ESM.

Deleted User wrote: »

Vote no and we have to try balance the budget sooner or risk a lack of funding. Some cry Armageddon.

The logic of it is difficult to avoid - if the problem with cuts and tax rises is that they reduce economic growth, it kind of follows automatically that faster and larger budget rebalancing will have similar but greater effects.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Happyman42

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm sure there is a strong logical connection between my post and your reply in your head, but I'm afraid it hasn't made it this far.

Perhaps you can explain what the hole and the shovel are in your analogy, and I'll try to catch up.

Imagine the EU are digging the hole. Think of the hole as the mess we are in, the deeper we go, the bigger the mess gets. Now imagine Enda trying to put the dirt back in the hole but it hasn't dawned on him to take the shovel off the EU even though there is a crowd gathered screaming at him to do it. I can draw you a picture if you want.:rolleyes:

FreudianSlippers

Ronin247 wrote: »

The no side wanted it postponed, but as that is not possible they want a no vote and then see what is actually in the treaty when French,German,Greek etc. issues are decided,if there are significant changes we would be better off seeing them before ratifying it.

The yes side will want a second vote because they lost.

But if we vote yes the government is not bound to ratify the existing treaty and (depending on the level of amendment to the treaty) could ratify any amended treaty without referendum. So, if that's your concern; I'm pretty sure you'll be voting "yes" tomorrow.


Won't hold my breath.

oscarBravo

Happyman42 wrote: »

Imagine the EU are digging the hole. Think of the hole as the mess we are in, the deeper we go, the bigger the mess gets. Now imagine Enda trying to put the dirt back in the hole but it hasn't dawned on him to take the shovel off the EU even though there is a crowd gathered screaming at him to do it. I can draw you a picture if you want.:rolleyes:

Hm. That almost makes sense as an analogy.

Unfortunately, 'almost' is as far as it goes. You're blithely asserting that the EU's policies are on a trajectory to make things worse; and that Ireland's rejection of this treaty will force them to change direction; and finally that that change of direction will magically make everything better.

Rather than drawing pictures, perhaps you could explain the actual mechanisms by which the EU's policies are making things worse; how our rejection of the treaty will affect its operation given that it doesn't require our ratification in order to go ahead without us; and what policies the EU should be pursuing in order to make everything better.

You know, discussion.

FreudianSlippers

Corben Dallas wrote: »

No.

The ('Stability' LOL) >>> Fiscal treaty will just copper fasten decades of austerity for Ireland, sanctioned by EU (Berlin), the water charges and ESPECIALLY the Property Charges coming (Negative Equity.. LOL we dont give a flying ****) (demanded by IMF as condition of getting bailout) is just the start, It will fast track many more billions the EU will take out of the Irish Economy.

Can you explain what the Treaty has to do with the IMF?
Can you explain where water charges and property charges are contained in the Treaty?
How many billions are in the Irish economy at the moment?

In a few years we could likely all be paying 60% tax (even low paid) with stealth taxes (costing 1000's per annum) on top of this. And If you complain, the EU will just say you signed the Fiscal Treaty. These binding fiscal controls will just keep bleeding the Irish taxpayer dry.

So what you're saying is that the EU will control our budget if we vote yes?

---

Handy tip in negotiating, if the Government agrees to everything put in front of them by IMF/EU/ ECB ..... >> you get nothing. If Contagion in Financial markets is what the EU fears most then it has a value to our government to bargain with.

---

I think you're slightly confused about the Treaty and would suggest maybe checking out the video posted slightly earlier in the thread.

The county is already being run largely by Berlin,
>>> the Germans knowing about the 23% Vat before the budget is released. >>> The sale of Irish Government 'Family silver' (State Assets)
" ... lacking in its ambition and might mean that we require a second bailout" etc << allegedly leaked internal memos Between Dublin and Berlin.

So, knowing about governmental policy means they are dictating the policy? hm.

A Yes Vote will more of less give total fiscal control to all taxation, corporate Taxation, Overseas Investment, etc., because key policy decisions will be made outside our control that wont suit Ireland but works fine for Berlin.

Ireland the 'Soft Touch' of Europe. Vote NO.

Actually, as has been pointed out a good few times now... if the treaty is ratified, the fiscal limits will be in Irish legislation and for the Irish government to implement. A 'yes' vote will give no more or less fiscal control to Ireland. All key policy decisions will be made in the pub Oireachtas as they are currently - a rather chilling thought... I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer them to be in Berlin at this stage.

Happyman42

oscarBravo wrote: »

Hm. That almost makes sense as an analogy.

Unfortunately, 'almost' is as far as it goes. You're blithely asserting that the EU's policies are on a trajectory to make things worse; and that Ireland's rejection of this treaty will force them to change direction; and finally that that change of direction will magically make everything better.

Have a look at what is happening in Europe right now and what has happened. What makes you think that the EU is in control of anything right now? What policy, what action have they taken has worked to stabilise the situation?

Rather than drawing pictures, perhaps you could explain the actual mechanisms by which the EU's policies are making things worse; how our rejection of the treaty will affect its operation given that it doesn't require our ratification in order to go ahead without us; and what policies the EU should be pursuing in order to make everything better.

You know, discussion.

If you answer my question above, you will find the answer to this one as well.

FreudianSlippers

Corben Dallas wrote: »

So Meglome... U think think a Yes vote will give us more independent control over Ireland's Fiscal future directions?.... please enlighten us how a binding fiscal EU enforced Treaty will give us more Fiscal Policy freedom in years ahead.

Do u really think a Yes Vote will mean less direct control (via Berlin) on how Irish Governments run the economy with less stringent taxation etc ???/ LOL

Naive much?

If this referendum is passed and the government ratifies the Treaty, what will happen is that we will actually put the limits and the consequences of breaching those limits into our own national legislation/constitution.

What this means is that it is completely out of the hands of the EU. We would be imposing these limits on ourselves and it would be for our government to decrease the deficit in line with the legislatively (or constitutionally, as the case may be) prescribed amounts.

The manner in which they do that is completely up to our government of the day.

How on Earth does that give any more power to the EU?

antoobrien

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Almost wiped out at this stage.

The growth since 1990 almost wiped out?

As we can see in this table of GDP since 1990 - the economy is almost 5 times bigger than it was in 1990 (calculated using the GGD figures from NTMA).

Year|GGD €bn|%GDP|GDP €bn
2011|169.3|108.2|156.4695
2010|144.2|92.5|155.8919
2009|104.6|65.1|160.6759
2008|79.6|44.2|180.0905
2007|47.4|24.9|190.3614
2006|44|24.7|178.1377
2005|44.7|27.5|162.5455
2004|44.3|29.7|149.1582
2003|43.3|31|139.6774
2002|41.9|32.2|130.1242
2001|41.6|35.6|116.8539
2000|39.7|37.8|105.0265
1999|43.9|48.5|90.51546
1998|42.1|53.6|78.54478
1997|43.7|64.3|67.96267
1996|43.2|73.5|58.77551
1995|43.6|82.1|53.10597
1994|41.7|89.8|46.43653
1993|41.1|95.2|43.17227
1992|37|92.4|40.04329
1991|36|95.5|37.69634
1990|34.2|94.5|36.19048

Scofflaw I said fiscal policy and thats what I meant.

The interest rates arent the main thing its what it is a % of that matters the most in this case. Your most at risk if you owe more.

If you want to compare debts with the 1990s then please include household debt too as without figures paint a highly inaccurate picture of whether or not the country can afford to pay this back.

Does it not worry anyone that Greece got a deal and we didnt?

Mance Rayder

Deleted User wrote: »

Does it not worry anyone that Greece got a deal and we didnt?

Not at all, I am happy that we are not in Greece's position.

FreudianSlippers

AVN_1 wrote: »

I'm just explaining why we should vote NO. We start with No and end up outside of the Euro Zone with recovered economy.

Step 1: Steal Underpants Leave Eurozone
Step 2: ?????
Step 3: Profit!

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

Scofflaw I said fiscal policy and thats what I meant.

But we had control of fiscal policy...

Deleted User wrote: »

The interest rates arent the main thing its what it is a % of that matters the most in this case. Your most at risk if you owe more.

Not sure what that means.

Deleted User wrote: »

If you want to compare debts with the 1990s then please include household debt too as without figures paint a highly inaccurate picture of whether or not the country can afford to pay this back.

Not really - they give you an idea of likely growth, but you can't just "include household debt". All it does is give you a nice big figure to wave at others (and yourself) scarily.

Deleted User wrote: »

Does it not worry anyone that Greece got a deal and we didnt?

Not really - they're a lot more badly off than we are. Also, I suspect you want only one part of their deal, and I don't see how that happens.

cordially,
Scofflaw

oscarBravo

Happyman42 wrote: »

Have a look at what is happening in Europe right now and what has happened. What makes you think that the EU is in control of anything right now? What policy, what action have they taken has worked to stabilise the situation?

You're handwaving, not discussing. You're asserting that the EU is Doing It Wrong (without troubling yourself with the specifics of what exactly is being done wrong or how it could be done better), and extrapolating from that theory to the idea that if the EU doesn't do what it's doing, things will ipso facto be better than they are now.

That's the sort of soundbite logic that passes muster in a TV debate, but you'll have to do better, I'm afraid.

Happyman42

oscarBravo wrote: »

You're handwaving, not discussing. You're asserting that the EU is Doing It Wrong (without troubling yourself with the specifics of what exactly is being done wrong or how it could be done better), and extrapolating from that theory to the idea that if the EU doesn't do what it's doing, things will ipso facto be better than they are now.

That's the sort of soundbite logic that passes muster in a TV debate, but you'll have to do better, I'm afraid.

Avoiding the issues and the question again? :rolleyes:

Again, what about the current situation makes you think that the EU is in control.

oscarBravo

Happyman42 wrote: »

Avoiding the issues and the question again? :rolleyes:

You're not giving me anything to discuss. You make sweeping statements about the EU not being in control - what is the EU supposed to be in control of? How is it not in control of it? What could it do differently to be in control of it? If your preferred course of action - the one you're working so hard to avoid having to articulate - is so vastly superior, why haven't the governments of the member states agreed to follow it instead?

Again, what about the current situation makes you think that the EU is in control.

I'm not sure what it's supposed to be in control of.

This, by the way, is why I hate the TV debate format for deciding these issues. A 'no' proponent will jabber on at length about how 'the EU isn't in control of the situation!' and the moderator will turn to the 'yes' proponent and say 'the EU is out of control - how do you answer that?'

The answer should be, can we please talk about the actual treaty? but then the 'no' side gets to score an empty point by claiming that the 'yes' side isn't answering the questions, and the audience at home tut-tuts about how those politicians never answer straight questions.

So, tell me: what's your detailed prescription for solving all of Europe's financial problems?

Dark Passenger

I'm trying to get some info on when the polls close.

I rang the referendum commission and was told by Snotty McSnotterson to find out for myself.

Can anyone help?

Also the number for the Referendum Commission is 01 6395695 if you fancy getting told to f**koff!

antoobrien

Dark Passenger wrote: »

I'm trying to get some info on when the polls close.

I rang the referendum commission and was told by Snotty McSnotterson to find out for myself.

Can anyone help?

Also the number for the Referendum Commission is 01 6395695 if you fancy getting told to f**koff!

7am-10pm

http://www.environ.ie/en/LocalGovernment/Voting/Referenda/News/MainBody,30017,en.htm

golden lane

Dark Passenger wrote: »

I'm trying to get some info on when the polls close.

I rang the referendum commission and was told by Snotty McSnotterson to find out for myself.

Can anyone help?

Also the number for the Referendum Commission is 01 6395695 if you fancy getting told to f**koff!

is it a recorded voice..????

beeftotheheels

Dark Passenger wrote: »

I'm trying to get some info on when the polls close.

I rang the referendum commission and was told by Snotty McSnotterson to find out for myself.

Can anyone help?

Also the number for the Referendum Commission is 01 6395695 if you fancy getting told to f**koff!

Polling Stations open at 7am and close at 10pm. This is nothing to do with the Referendum Commission.

Dark Passenger

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Polling Stations open at 7am and close at 10pm. This is nothing to do with the Referendum Commission.

Thanks for the info, I appreciate it. The referendum commision website states:

"The Commission strongly encourages you to vote"

I was just looking for info to aid my doing so.