A War Game

Aimhere

Just want to try something it is a form of war gaming whereby I give a scenario from WW2 such as “Russia invades Poland n 1939 by order of Stalin to show that the Purges have not crippled the Red Army and to create a buffer zone between Germany. Hitler orders the mobilisation Wehrmacht to help Defend Poland while army units are moving towards the front Luftwaffe units are engaged over the front as they have move to polish airbase while the Krieg marine is engaging navy Units in the Baltic .Finish government has orders the Army to mobilise and is place alone the Russian boarder”
Now What?

Manach

Is the territorial guarantee to Poland given by UK/France still in effect?

Aimhere

It is but with Russia attacking first will France honor the Franco–Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance
"Soviet can claim they acted to prevent a Germany take over and call on France to support them"
What will England do?

Article 1
In the event that France or the U.S.S.R. are subjected to the threat or the danger of aggression on the part of a European state, the U.S.S.R. and France engage themselves reciprocally to proceed to an immediate mutual consultation on measures to take in order to observe the provisions of Article 10 of the League of Nations Pact.

Article 2
In the event that, in the circumstances described in Article 15, paragraph 7, of the League of Nations Pact, France or the U.S.S.R. may be, in spite of the genuinely pacific intentions of the two countries, and subject of unprovoked aggression on the part of a European state, the U.S.S.R. and France will immediately lend each other reciprocal aid and assistance.

Article 3
Taking into consideration the fact that, according to Article 16 of the League of Nations Pact, every member of the League that resorts to war contrary to the engagements assumed in Articles 12, 13 or 15 of the Pact is ipso facto considered as having committed an act of war against all the other members of the League, France and the U.S.S.R. engage themselves reciprocally, [should either of them be the object of unprovoked aggression], to lend immediate aid and assistance in activating the application of Article 16 of the Pact.The same obligation is assumed in the even that either France or the U.S.S.R. is the object of aggression on the part of a European state in the circumstances described in Article 17, paragraphs 1 and 3, of the League of Nations Pact.
Protocole de Signature

Article 1
It is understood that the effect of Article 3 is to oblige each Contracting Party to lend immediate assistance to the other in conforming immediately to the recommendations of the Council of the League of Nations as soon as they are announced under Article 16 of the Pact. It equally understood that the two Contracting Parties will act in concert to elicit the recommendations of the Council with all the celerity that circumstances require and that, if nevertheless, the Council, for any reason whatever, does not make any recommendation or does not arrive at a unanimous decision, the obligation of assistance will nonetheless be implemented....
[edit]See also

Aimhere

Any one wanna add any thing

Stovepipe

How about retitling it, "Russia attacks Poland as retaliation for the 1920 defeat"? Which could lead to an early opening of warfare between Finland and Russia, in Karelia and a French intervention in the Alsace-Lorraine/Saar region, if the Germans aid the Poles (purely on the basis of getting a "German" solution to the "Danzig Question"). I don't think it would prompt an early Barbarossa but might prompt anti-Russian fighting in the Baltic states, if the Germans/Polish push the Russians back across the frontier and enter Russian territory. It might also delay or prevent war in France/Low countries.
regards
Stovepipe

Tzar Chasm

Are we presuming that the ribentrof-molotov deal do sent exist, or that the Russians have decided to tear it up and take all of poland before germany can move in?

Aimhere

At least i'm getting a reply. The points people make are good what i need to do so is give more in depth information. So if some one would like to help me out that would be great and we could come up with some thing.i think if this is done right you could come up with a few interesting ideas.

Stovepipe

So, would this generate further Naval conflict in the Baltic? A German raid on the Russian Baltic ports, by sea and air, from Polish bases? Would this keep Denmark and Norway out of the war until 1941?

regards
Stovepipe

recedite

Most likely the Germans would have continued on into the USSR in search of "liebensraum" recruiting whole regiments of anti-Russian locals along the way in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Americans cheering from the sidelines as the commies get their whoop-ass. Finns mind their own business, as does western Europe. Mussolini then takes Greece and Ethiopia with assistance from the luftwaffe.
By 1941, there is a fascist alliance covering all of eastern Europe, and the war weary Germans call it a day, for now........

Stovepipe

So, you'd have the continuance of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as independent States but now in the Fascist/nationalist camp.Now, if the germans take a break to rest and rearm, where do they stop? If they continue into the Ukraine, the Soviet breadbasket, then Stalin will be forced by circumstances to counterattack to save his grain. Apart from that, what of the Jews in Poland and the Baltic States, if Hitler has his eye on them?

regards
Stovepipe

Aimhere

Stalin would have to attack are face revolt in Russia. Germans would look like they where protecting the Baltic states. The Allies powers may place a trade embargo on Russia and may help German. Swedes and fins may see this as a time to get back land from Russia and Help as well

recedite

The eastern Jews are doomed in this scenario, unfortunately, but those in Holland and France survive and prosper.

Stalin counterattacks the Germans, but rapidly runs into trouble because instead of the Germans fighting on two fronts, the Russians are now.

A secret deal between Hitler and Japan has the Japanese moving up from Manchuria to liberate "their" Sakhalin Islands
Fearing a US oil embargo, they have agreed with Hitler that they will take over Siberia and its vast strategic oil and gas reserves.
This leaves an ongoing war of attrition in southern China, with Japanese forces diverted to the north. They have been warned by the Germans to avoid antagonising Britain and France, so Singapore, Burmah and French Indo China are left alone. But they still arm and fund nationalists in these countries, hoping to bring them into the Japanese sphere in the long run.
Tensions are running high between the US and Japan over the China war, but no hostilities.

TerrorFirmer

recedite wrote: »

Most likely the Germans would have continued on into the USSR in search of "liebensraum" recruiting whole regiments of anti-Russian locals along the way in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Americans cheering from the sidelines as the commies get their whoop-ass. Finns mind their own business, as does western Europe. Mussolini then takes Greece and Ethiopia with assistance from the luftwaffe.
By 1941, there is a fascist alliance covering all of eastern Europe, and the war weary Germans call it a day, for now........

I don't think this makes much sense. The Germans always had that opportunity of recruiting anti-Stalinist populations, but largely chose to ignore it until far too late in the war. You're not wrong on the America front admittedly, more so than anyone they would have applauded the collapse of the SU - in a different context than the one that played out.

However, Mussolini taking Greece? Not a chance. The Italians were floundering bordering on total collapse and route until German intervention. Your statement 'with assistance from the luftwaffe' doesn't make much sense, because conquering Greece with assistance from the Luftwaffe/Wehrmacht would have turned British/French opposition - don't forget this is a scenario pre-fall of France? German intervention in such an alternate timeline would lead to a situation not dissimilar to the way WW2 played out.

What would have happened if the SU invaded poland in 1939? I would imagine, firstly, the western world would probably applaud German intervention and even supported it against the SU - belief in such would have been utterly beyond Hitlers wildest dreams in 1940/41. Yet, don't forget, that even the Winter War hardened the SU - had they invaded Poland in 1939, it would not have ended well. By 1941 the SU had some T34's and KV Tanks....in 1939, the SU was entirely ill equipped to tackle the German army, with huge quantities of BT7,T26-28, and similar tanks, which even in 1939 compared poorly to the limited quantities of Panzer III and even IV tanks.

The SU invading Poland in 1939 would have sparked conflict, which at that point, even more so than 1941, the SU was ill prepared to bear. Actually, now that you've mentioned it, an invasion of Poland in 1939, would almost have seen a faster collapse of the SU then than almost occurred in 1941. For reasons of, mainly,:

- Poorer quality tanks, like the BT-x and T-2x series of tanks, .
- SU lack of reserves at that time compared to 1941

Not to mention, in such an event, in which I believe the SU would have been positively shattered completely, Germany would exercise a right as 'protectorate' of Poland.

It is not entirely unlikely, that, in such an event, Germany would have inflicted such a humiliating, crippling defeat upon the SU, that they would have been forced to accept terms along the terms of the brest-litovsk treaty of 1918....ironically securing Hitlers most pressing aims of the 1941 offensive, i.e agricultural land.

recedite

TerrorFirmer wrote: »

The Germans always had that opportunity of recruiting anti-Stalinist populations, but largely chose to ignore it until far too late in the war.

I was thinking of these guys, and also in Ukraine sentiments were very anti soviet at the time, but yes, German arrogance prevented them from making full use of these resources until their own manpower was running too low.

However, Mussolini taking Greece? Not a chance. The Italians were floundering bordering on total collapse and route until German intervention. Your statement 'with assistance from the luftwaffe' doesn't make much sense, because conquering Greece with assistance from the Luftwaffe/Wehrmacht would have turned British/French opposition - don't forget this is a scenario pre-fall of France?

Air support has often proved pivotal when the ground fighting was shambolic, such as in the recent Libya conflict, and don't forget that luftwaffe Stukas assisted Franco when the outcome of the Spanish civil war looked uncertain.
Would Britain and France have gone to war over Greece? An interesting question. If they viewed it as an eastward only expansion by Axis powers, they may not have been quite so concerned as they were by the actual historical events.
I agree that the SU ends up utterly crushed in this scenario, which just goes to show that in reality Stalin played his cards well, and he was the smart fella historically. By having the deal with Hitler, he diverted German aggression elsewhere until he could muster enough forces to counter it.

Aimhere

Another way now to continue this is another scenario is posted and people pick a country and each side reacts to the other persons choices any one wanna try that