Ireland Tour to New Zealand 2012 Discussion thread

CatFromHue

Podge_irl wrote: »

The percentage of the teams tries scored by a single player is a statistic that reveals more about the style of play of the team then about the player in particular. Though Zebo certainly has a good rate.

Yeah you can't say it's a black or white statistic but still impressive all the same.

Cpt_Blackbeard

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Zebo has scored 14 tries is 33 (8 from the bench) professional appearances for Munster. Gilroy has scored 14 tries in 43 (3 from the bench) professional appearances for Ulster.

Zebo's try scoring record is clearly a good bit better than Gilroy's.

U20 IRFU - Zebo, played 9 - scored 3
U20 IRFU - Gilroy, played 6 - scored 4

Zebo 17 tries in 42 appearances - A try every 2.47 games
Gilroy 18 tries in 47 appearances - A try every 2.61 games
(guess what happens when we look at the BaaBaas game too? Z - 2.38, G 2.4)

Some of us actually watch these guys from the beginning, and know a bit about them.

"Far Better" has become "Good Bit better" and now is "a little better".

In fact, using the selective statistics that you have proven overly fond of in the past, we could say that Gilroy scores far more in an Irish Jersey, considering that if we could the BaaBaas game, in the 7games he's worn green he's scored 6 tries, and Zebo has scored 4 in 10 games...

Fishooks12

Deleted User wrote: »

U20 IRFU - Zebo, played 9 - scored 3
U20 IRFU - Gilroy, played 6 - scored 4

Zebo 17 tries in 42 appearances - A try every 2.47 games
Gilroy 18 tries in 47 appearances - A try every 2.61 games

Some of us actually watch these guys from the beginning, and know a bit about them.

"Far Better" has become "Good Bit better" and now is "a little better".

You're ignoring the black and white fact that this years form is far more important than last years

molloyjh

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

For a man that has done little else in his breakthrough season than score a bundle of tries, there is an awful lot of vitriol spouted Zebo's way.

Why is he being singled out for criticism for Gilroy's exclusion? Both players have been comfortably better wingers than Trimble (and arguably McFadden) this season, yet Zebo is singled out for abuse. Is it just the Munster conspiracy?

Fishooks12 wrote: »

I think this has a lot to do with it. If Zebo wasn't a Munster player I doubt the "disgrace" of his inclusion would be highlighted as much

This is exactly the sort of thing I was complaining about yesterday. Some people see rating Gilroy higher than Zebo as a sleight on Zebo. It isn't. Zebo is an exciting young talent and we all want to see him do well. However Gilroy seems to be a better player right now and D Kearney was not only better than him playing for the Wolfhounds, but was also selected ahead of him to bench in the 6 Nations. To my mind the form of all 3 has remained consistent all season. DKs selection has not. They are 2 reasons why people are giving out about Kidneys selection. They are not giving out about Zebo. So why are some people getting their knickers in a twist over it!? Sure most of us would take all 3 ideally.....

Cpt_Blackbeard

Deleted User wrote: »

U20 IRFU - Zebo, played 9 - scored 3
U20 IRFU - Gilroy, played 6 - scored 4

Zebo 17 tries in 42 appearances - A try every 2.47 games
Gilroy 18 tries in 47 appearances - A try every 2.61 games
(guess what happens when we look at the BaaBaas game too? Z - 2.38, G 2.4)

Some of us actually watch these guys from the beginning, and know a bit about them.

"Far Better" has become "Good Bit better" and now is "a little better".

In fact, using the selective statistics that you have proven overly fond of in the past, we could say that Gilroy scores far more in an Irish Jersey, considering that if we could the BaaBaas game, in the 7games he's worn green he's scored 6 tries, and Zebo has scored 4 in 10 games...

Do you have any access to their school's/underage records? If you are seeking to be absurdly pedantic, you should at least go the whole way with it.

Do you disagree with my original point that Zebo has an appreciably/far/good bit etc. better try scoring record as a professional rugby player?

Fishooks12

Fishooks12 wrote: »

You're ignoring the black and white fact that this years form is far more important than last years

I'm not. I'm showing you that a try scoring record tells us only a bit about a player.

A winger should be a keen finisher, and both of these guys are, Zebo's excellent record this season speaks for itself. But really, that's all it tells us.

Unfortunately that's not the only part of the game, CatfromHue posted the other night that we'd scored the most tries of all the teams in the last 3 6N, look how that ended up for us.

I don't think that saying "X scores more tries than Y, he must be included" is a valid or simple argument. Otherwise Madigan would be our starting out half.

Fishooks12

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not. I'm showing you that a try scoring record tells us only a bit about a player.

A winger should be a keen finisher, and both of these guys are, Zebo's excellent record this season speaks for itself. But really, that's all it tells us.

Unfortunately that's not the only part of the game, CatfromHue posted the other night that we'd scored the most tries of all the teams in the last 3 6N, look how that ended up for us.

I don't think that saying "X scores more tries than Y, he must be included" is a valid or simple argument. Otherwise Madigan would be our starting out half.

I haven't been arguing that at all, in fact the first time I made reference to it I pointed out that it's only a part of the decision making process and one thing that showed Zebo travelling isn't that bad a thing

d-gal

Deleted User wrote: »

U20 IRFU - Zebo, played 9 - scored 3
U20 IRFU - Gilroy, played 6 - scored 4

Zebo 17 tries in 42 appearances - A try every 2.47 games
Gilroy 18 tries in 47 appearances - A try every 2.61 games
(guess what happens when we look at the BaaBaas game too? Z - 2.38, G 2.4)

Some of us actually watch these guys from the beginning, and know a bit about them.

"Far Better" has become "Good Bit better" and now is "a little better".

In fact, using the selective statistics that you have proven overly fond of in the past, we could say that Gilroy scores far more in an Irish Jersey, considering that if we could the BaaBaas game, in the 7games he's worn green he's scored 6 tries, and Zebo has scored 4 in 10 games...

Oh will you give over.

Zebo has a better try scoring record this year, end of. This year is all that matters. Form is form and Zebo has outscored Gilroy easily with a way below average backline.
They are both full of potential and both should be ahead of McFadden and Trimble.

For the record with anyone on the Munster bias. Kidney pick the players he knows and trusts and he adds the odd one from wherever when there is injuries (Zebo, Marshall, Loughney etc.). When he came in the Munster old guard was still alive and well and dominated the Irish team. People assumed Munster bias and it still drags on. But Kidney just sticks to who he knows. That now just doesn't include DOC, that includes D'Arcy, Trimble and McFadden. It's like the public sector, you just cannot seem to get fired! I would be pretty confident that if another manager came in that all 4 would be dumped out of the 30man squad (D'arcy 50/50 due to lack of 12s) and replaced with the likes of Toner, Gilroy, TOH, Wallace etc.

Cpt_Blackbeard

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not. I'm showing you that a try scoring record tells us only a bit about a player.

A winger should be a keen finisher, and both of these guys are, Zebo's excellent record this season speaks for itself. But really, that's all it tells us.

Unfortunately that's not the only part of the game, CatfromHue posted the other night that we'd scored the most tries of all the teams in the last 3 6N, look how that ended up for us.

I don't think that saying "X scores more tries than Y, he must be included" is a valid or simple argument. Otherwise Madigan would be our starting out half.

Well by your reasoning, you should probably be saying that ROG should be our starting outhalf. Even though Madigan has scored a bundle of tries this year, we must remember that ROG was the 6N top try scorer in the past however many years ago.

d-gal

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think that saying "X scores more tries than Y, he must be included" is a valid or simple argument. Otherwise Madigan would be our starting out half.

I think everyone would agree that Madigan should be there

Cpt_Blackbeard

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Well by your reasoning, you should probably be saying that ROG should be our starting outhalf. Even though Madigan has scored a bundle of tries this year, we must remember that ROG was the 6N top try scorer in the past however many years ago.

You realise that the U20s scores that both Zebo and Gilroy clocked up were in the past 2 seasons? As in, when they were both playing professional rugby for their province?

It pains me to spoonfeed you sometimes.

d-gal

d-gal wrote: »

I think everyone would agree that Madigan should be there

not ahead of Sexton...

d-gal

Deleted User wrote: »

not ahead of Sexton...

Obviously but he should be on the plane. Form is form and all you have to do is look at New Zealand and it is what we should be doing

Cpt_Blackbeard

Deleted User wrote: »

You realise that the U20s scores that both Zebo and Gilroy clocked up were in the past 2 seasons? As in, when they were both playing professional rugby for their province?

It pains me to spoonfeed you sometimes.

Surely you should also include any club games they took part in since they signed their first academy contract so? They were professionals at the time after-all. Would it also be pertinent to include any scores in training matches or games of tip-rugby since that first professional contract too?

Rather than finding all these stats, you could just admit you're wrong. It would be much less time intensive, but your pride might take a fatal blow.

molloyjh

Fishooks12 wrote: »

I haven't been arguing that at all, in fact the first time I made reference to it I pointed out that it's only a part of the decision making process and one thing that showed Zebo travelling isn't that bad a thing

Oh for......

Zebo travelling is not a bad thing. Gilroy travelling just would have been better. One thing being better than another does not mean the other is bad.

Winning €10 on a scratch card is good, but is winning €5 bad? Of course not. It's just not as good.

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Surely you should also include any club games they took part in since they signed their first academy contract so? They were professionals at the time after-all. Would it also be pertinent to include any scores in training matches or games of tip-rugby since that first professional contract too?



Rather than finding all these stats, you could just admit you're wrong. It would be much less time intensive, but your pride might take a fatal blow.

I'm assuming at this stage you've noticed the point about tries scored not being everything?

Fishooks12

molloyjh wrote: »

Oh for......

Zebo travelling is not a bad thing. Gilroy travelling just would have been better. One thing being better than another does not mean the other is bad.

Winning €10 on a scratch card is good, but is winning €5 bad? Of course not. It's just not as good.

FFS I'm not saying every poster is implying it but there was a good amount of posts bemoaning Zebo's inclusion

stuff like "he'll be destroyed agains the AB's" and such

Cpt_Blackbeard

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Surely you should also include any club games they took part in since they signed their first academy contract so? They were professionals at the time after-all. Would it also be pertinent to include any scores in training matches or games of tip-rugby since that first professional contract too?

Rather than finding all these stats, you could just admit you're wrong. It would be much less time intensive, but your pride might take a fatal blow.

What is wrong with you? Seriously? Breathe, and then think...

I discussed that Zebo and Gilroy's try scoring record since they broke onto the scene isn't massively different. They broke onto the scene at U20s rugby, where we saw them first.

They both score loads of tries. Gilroy does it consistently across 2 seasons with Ulster and Ireland, Zebo, slower to start, finishes really strongly with Munster.

They're both talented youngsters, I haven't slighted Zebo at any stage in any of my posts. I'm just taking the "Far better" try scoring record and looking at it in detail. Under fairly close examination across the 2 seasons that they've both been playing, there's almost nothing to set them apart.

Wrt your last line, gas, simply gas. Laplace distribution, or double exponential if you prefer?

gally74

Gilroy left Zebo for dust in the semi

Kayless

Well this would be my team for the first test:

Healy, Best, Ross, POC (or Tuohy) Ryan, Mclaughlin, (or POM) O'Brien, Heaslip, Reddan, Sexton, Earls, D'Arcy, O'Driscoll, Trimble, Kearney

The 60th minute changes should be Cronin on for Best, Tuohy on for POC and
POM on for Mclaughlin

Could you imagine if this was our normal setup with Bowe and Gilroy/Zebo on the wings and Joe as the coach we’d be unstoppable... I think the important point here is rotation. The core of the team from 1-15 is Leinster (as it should be) but more notably I would have Mclaughlin starting as i think this can only serve to improve our back-row

Last night was a good example of why we need our provisional partnerships such as Reddan, Sexton and D'Arcy, O'Driscoll as well as a good bench and savy player roatation

of course DK will never do this

Fishooks12

It's worth mentioning that the likes of Emmet and Mollyith are not the type of posters I was referring to in my OP on the matter

Fishooks12

gally74 wrote: »

Gilroy left Zebo for dust in the semi

This is the kind of post I'm on about

Using an isolated incident in one game to have a swipe at Zebo

I'm sure Zebo in open space would do the same on occasion to Gilroy and vice versa. Neither player is known for their defensive prowess

Tox56

What I'd be interested to know is how D Kearney went from a bench spot in the 6 Nations, to apparently being behind both Gilroy and Zebo? Is there something going on that I missed?

Fishooks12

Tox56 wrote: »

What I'd be interested to know is how D Kearney went from a bench spot in the 6 Nations, to apparently being behind both Gilroy and Zebo? Is there something going on that I missed?

We'll have to put some of this down to the birds in Kidneys head!

gally74

Fishooks12 wrote: »

This is the kind of post I'm on about

Using an isolated incident in one game to have a swipe at Zebo

I'm sure Zebo in open space would do the same on occasion to Gilroy and vice versa. Neither player is known for their defensive prowess

Im not having a swipe at Zeno just questioning why gilroy can't go

Cpt_Blackbeard

Tox56 wrote: »

What I'd be interested to know is how D Kearney went from a bench spot in the 6 Nations, to apparently being behind both Gilroy and Zebo? Is there something going on that I missed?

Both Gilroy and Zebo have been playing week-in week-out, Kearney has not?

danthefan

I couldn't give a toss about Zebo/Gilroy, Zebo isn't going to get near the pitch unless there are injuries. He won't even make a matchday squad I reckon.

I am not looking forward to this tour.

Tox56

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Both Gilroy and Zebo have been playing week-in week-out, Kearney has not?

Was that not the case when he was selected for the 6 Nations as well? He did play 80 mins in that Rabo Semi and 65 mins the week before v the Dragons (played some of the HEC Final too).

Cpt_Blackbeard

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Both Gilroy and Zebo have been playing week-in week-out, Kearney has not?

nope

Since last 6N game, Zebo has played 6, Kearney 5.

he's actually played 7 btw (he subbed in HEC final and RB12 final, but haven't counted his appearances from the bench)

Hagz

It's got nothing to with Zebo deserving to go, I'd imagine most people are happy with the idea of him traveling. He's an attacking risk-taking type player and he's still very young. I want management to take chances on guys like him. The problem lies in the fact that there is another promising attacking player in Gilroy up north who has had two seasons of consistency. A promising out-half in Madigan in Leinster who has performed every time he's been given the opportunity this season. Paul Marshall who's an electric little speedster who's had a good season was only given 3 mins in the wolfhounds game. Yet there Zebo is. Why Zebo?

totallegend

danthefan wrote: »

I couldn't give a toss about Zebo/Gilroy, Zebo isn't going to get near the pitch unless there are injuries. He won't even make a matchday squad I reckon.

I am not looking forward to this tour.

Correct; backs will be Earls, D'Arcy, BOD, Trimble/McFadden, Kearney with McFadden/Trimble on the bench. Zebo is there for injuries only as he is the least versatile of any of them and is not a bench option.