Farmers futures are bright says top investor

nilhg

Not sure where my nearest Lamborghini dealer is but I'm looking forward to trying one out


http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/


Seriously though, even though we've heard all this before it does seem that there are better and hopefully more predictable times ahead, when you see the Chinese so active here over the last few months and the possibility of other markets reopening to our produce then hopefully we'll get some payback for the hardships of the past.

reilig

nilhg wrote: »

Not sure where my nearest Lamborghini dealer is but I'm looking forward to trying one out


http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/


Seriously though, even though we've heard all this before it does seem that there are better and hopefully more predictable times ahead, when you see the Chinese so active here over the last few months and the possibility of other markets reopening to our produce then hopefully we'll get some payback for the hardships of the past.

Didn't Jim Rodgers publich a paper in ireland in 2000 which said that property was our future and that anyone could become a millionaire if they invested in bricks and mortar ??

pakalasa

"US INVESTMENT guru Jim Rogers has warned that the Irish economy has turned into a bubble and that people are going to suffer over the coming years."

Feb 2008 - Pity he didn't warn us a bit earlier.

http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn%5Bdiscussion_id%5D=108660&dcn%5Bforum_id%5D=4

Tipp Man

The problem for farmers of course is the middle men. As soon as agri prices increase the middle men cream it off. the average wage in Glanbia about 8 years ago was in excess of 50k - god knows what it is now.

Costs are going to take the good out of the farming boom of the next few years - fertiliser, diesel, machinery its all too dear

Tipp Man

And another thing - the vast majority of these clowns writing ariticles haven't a clue - they just spout whatever crap is popular

If they were so smart they'd be keeping this "wonderful" information to themselves to make a few quid from it

5live

nilhg wrote: »

Not sure where my nearest Lamborghini dealer is but I'm looking forward to trying one out


http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/


Seriously though, even though we've heard all this before it does seem that there are better and hopefully more predictable times ahead, when you see the Chinese so active here over the last few months and the possibility of other markets reopening to our produce then hopefully we'll get some payback for the hardships of the past.

If the 'experts' say we are going to make money and our futures are bright then i think its time to sell up and wait for the crash:(

johngalway

Be mindful of barbed hooks in anything ye swallow online

I think it's the Arabs that have a saying "The future is not yet written".

These sure thing prophecies remind me of tips on horse racing.

Wasn't so long ago since a lot of Ag was unhappily bouncing along the bottom of the barrel.

Use good times to prepare for the rainy years IMO.

Timmaay

So how can you invest in the agricultural industry? The obvious way is to get your hands dirty and become a farmer. “The very best way is to go and become a farmer … Buy farmland and become a farmer, because then you are going to get huge paybacks,” said Rogers.

Well this obviously isn't applicable to Ireland! The price of land here means you will get a very poor return on your investment (I think in about 2%, not even beating inflation). Then we have the problem of segmented farms here, so farms are too small and inefficient.

Then as Tipp man said, in terms of Dairying at least, the middlemen (the co-ops) certainly appear to have benefited more then the farmers, and with this whole lack of processing capacity, Post quote could well mean June peak fines etc, which ultimately will be the farmers paying for the inefficiencies in the processors at the minute, with far to many small co-ops in Ireland.

So hmmm, just before we all go booking the test drive with the Lamborghini, we better sort out ourown mess here in Ireland!

Where I'll disagree with you Tippman is in the costs, yes high costs obviously reduce the farmers profit short term, but from an Irish point of view, high energy costs makes the Irish grass based system overall cheaper from an international point of view.

reilig

Timmaay wrote: »

.


So hmmm, just before we all go booking the test drive with the Lamborghini,

nilhg

Well, not too many glass is half full folk here;)

Tipp Man wrote: »

The problem for farmers of course is the middle men. As soon as agri prices increase the middle men cream it off. the average wage in Glanbia about 8 years ago was in excess of 50k - god knows what it is now.

Costs are going to take the good out of the farming boom of the next few years - fertiliser, diesel, machinery its all too dear

Timmaay wrote: »

Well this obviously isn't applicable to Ireland! The price of land here means you will get a very poor return on your investment (I think in about 2%, not even beating inflation). Then we have the problem of segmented farms here, so farms are too small and inefficient.

Then as Tipp man said, in terms of Dairying at least, the middlemen (the co-ops) certainly appear to have benefited more then the farmers, and with this whole lack of processing capacity, Post quote could well mean June peak fines etc, which ultimately will be the farmers paying for the inefficiencies in the processors at the minute, with far to many small co-ops in Ireland.

So hmmm, just before we all go booking the test drive with the Lamborghini, we better sort out ourown mess here in Ireland!

If course farmers did own the co-ops themselves at one stage but sold out for a quick few quid and some shares. Glanbia shareholders had the chance to take the Irish processing business back off the PLC recently but didn't take it, but that's a conversation for another thread.

Timmaay wrote: »

Where I'll disagree with you Tippman is in the costs, yes high costs obviously reduce the farmers profit short term, but from an Irish point of view, high energy costs makes the Irish grass based system overall cheaper from an international point of view.

Yes, high energy prices are part of the reason food prices are higher than before, with big usage of corn for ethanol in the US and other countries which is leading to low stocks even with higher production,





Reports say that China is likely to import 3 times more corn than last year because of growing demand for meat from their population, this trend can only continue if their economy continues to grow. The situation in other growing parts of the world is similar as people's situation improves they want to improve their diet and eat more meat.

The situation is similar with soya and other protein sources, their prices are going up as well, all this inevitably leads to higher production costs on the big feedlots and has to make our grass based systems more and more competitive.

Of course a few years of high yields could raise stocks and depress prices but equally any weather event could cause them to go even higher.

On our own farms all we can do is to try to be as efficient as we can and manage our costs so that we can collect the maximum part of whatever the price is for ourselves.

milkprofit

f course farmers did own the co-ops themselves at one stage but sold out for a quick few quid and some shares. Glanbia shareholders had the chance to take the Irish processing business back off the PLC recently but didn't take it, but that's a conversation for another thread.
Weren't we lucky a few farmers held the line and voted against
Do you realize what the plc is worth now

The principle was right but price way out

Tora Bora

nilhg wrote: »

Well, not too many glass is half full folk here;)






If course farmers did own the co-ops themselves at one stage but sold out for a quick few quid and some shares. Glanbia shareholders had the chance to take the Irish processing business back off the PLC recently but didn't take it, but that's a conversation for another thread.




Yes, high energy prices are part of the reason food prices are higher than before, with big usage of corn for ethanol in the US and other countries which is leading to low stocks even with higher production,





Reports say that China is likely to import 3 times more corn than last year because of growing demand for meat from their population, this trend can only continue if their economy continues to grow. The situation in other growing parts of the world is similar as people's situation improves they want to improve their diet and eat more meat.

The situation is similar with soya and other protein sources, their prices are going up as well, all this inevitably leads to higher production costs on the big feedlots and has to make our grass based systems more and more competitive.

Of course a few years of high yields could raise stocks and depress prices but equally any weather event could cause them to go even higher.

On our own farms all we can do is to try to be as efficient as we can and manage our costs so that we can collect the maximum part of whatever the price is for ourselves.

Grass based system would be great, if we had held on to our grass type animals. But realistically, we now have Lims, and Charolais, and BB's ......... these mamoths need plent grain to finish them.

The auld, whitehead stock of old, would be great in a world where grain costs go out of control.

bob charles

another Pup that has being sold is that Ireland with a grass based system will be much more compeditive with high energy costs. It takes allot of energy to grow grass you know and all the inputs needed for grass growth are energy dependent. Look at the price of grass seed for instance, high energy prices has seen a shift away from production of seed, Fertiliser aint getting cheaper with rising energy costs and movement of product inwards and outwards is much more expensive in Ireland due to geographical reasons both nationally and internationally

fodda

bob charles wrote: »

another Pup that has being sold is that Ireland with a grass based system will be much more compeditive with high energy costs. It takes allot of energy to grow grass you know and all the inputs needed for grass growth are energy dependent. Look at the price of grass seed for instance, high energy prices has seen a shift away from production of seed, Fertiliser aint getting cheaper with rising energy costs and movement of product inwards and outwards is much more expensive in Ireland due to geographical reasons both nationally and internationally

Is this where organic farming becomes more main stream as it doesnt require the high energy inputs?

Chemicals and man made fertiliser all require energy for the manufacture and application, so is this type of farming only sustainable with low energy costs?

Tipp Man

bob charles wrote: »

another Pup that has being sold is that Ireland with a grass based system will be much more compeditive with high energy costs. It takes allot of energy to grow grass you know and all the inputs needed for grass growth are energy dependent. Look at the price of grass seed for instance, high energy prices has seen a shift away from production of seed, Fertiliser aint getting cheaper with rising energy costs and movement of product inwards and outwards is much more expensive in Ireland due to geographical reasons both nationally and internationally

Ye but there is no need for cattle farmers to be spreading fertiliser - we are summer grazing nearly 200 cattle and not 1 bag of fertiliser will be spread.

We will probably change our cattle system this year to wintering some - however the only fertiliser we will then spread will be for silage to cover a short winter - nothing else

The problem with cattle farmers is that they have resorted to low margin high cattle turnover. And to get the high turnover they need to pump nuts into them to get them finished quickly and pump fertiliser to get the grass for them

That's also why i am sceptical (critical even) of the Derrypatrick herd and yer man in the journal spouting on about stocking rates, gross return per acre etc. They are trying to run beef farms like dairy farms - thats all well and good but the returns in beef just don't justify (IMO) huge outlays in fertiliser and meal that they are promoting. by trying to be like dairy they are actually moving in the opposite direction as dairy is all about utilising grass and cheap production - but dairy prices allow farmers to justify using fertiliser - beef doesn't. Grass can be grown practically for free if we wanted

5live

fodda wrote: »

Is this where organic farming becomes more main stream as it doesnt require the high energy inputs?

Chemicals and man made fertiliser all require energy for the manufacture and application, so is this type of farming only sustainable with low energy costs?

Less inputs,yes but way less output as well. So more land needed to supply the same levels of food. And while places like the Ukraine, Russia and Brazil have huge areas of under-utilised land, in a lot of cases they need massive inputs of fertiliser to get them into production

fodda

5live wrote: »

Less inputs,yes but way less output as well. So more land needed to supply the same levels of food. And while places like the Ukraine, Russia and Brazil have huge areas of under-utilised land, in a lot of cases they need massive inputs of fertiliser to get them into production

So low energy costs are the reason for low food costs then?

Less output. Obvious because the cheap energy has allowed more production per acre because you can cram more energy through artificial fertiliser in to a smaller space to grow more food. So all this is now at an end or at a price.

This is why the change to higher food costs is happening?

5live

fodda wrote: »

So low energy costs are the reason for low food costs then?

Less output. Obvious because the cheap energy has allowed more production per acre because you can cram more energy through artificial fertiliser in to a smaller space to grow more food. So all this is now at an end or at a price.

This is why the change to higher food costs is happening?

20 years ago the fertiliser advice was put out 8 to 10 bags/acre to grow silage/grass for 2LU/ha. Now we can produce the same output or more from 4 bags/acre approx. Efficient use of inputs and more targeted use of them will always be the way forward for whatever system/business you are in

fodda

5live wrote: »

20 years ago the fertiliser advice was put out 8 to 10 bags/acre to grow silage/grass for 2LU/ha. Now we can produce the same output or more from 4 bags/acre approx. Efficient use of inputs and more targeted use of them will always be the way forward for whatever system/business you are in

Totally agree but just while on the subject do you know how much extra food you have produced from those 4 bags per acre and what are the costs including delivery, storage, application, any treatments to the extra crop, harvest, extra labour and fertiliser cost?

Meaning .... Is it still cost effective for the extra you may get out of it?

Timmaay

nilhg wrote: »

Well, not too many glass is half full folk here;)

Nay don't get me wrong, I am optimist about the future of agricultural, I could have stuck to my previous profession, which I spend a good few years in college for etc, and just done part time beef or tillage, but I decided that Diary looked promising enough to take over from my father full time.

In my view, the Supply/Demand graph for the world food will be good for several years to come, as stated in this thread due to two main reasons, world population, and competition from biocrops.

My negative comments were directly aimed at the Irish system, which despite this massive advantage of a low cost grass based system, we have two massive inefficiencies in terms of poor land parcels, and processing capacity for milk, which are two big hurdles that limit us massively in comparison to New Zealand. The processing problem can be put largely down to the processors (who are controlled by shareholders who aren't farmers) investing in international dairy projects, which have a better return on than building new processing plants here in Ireland. Until the farmers have control of the processors, and we go down the route of NZ with one or two large co-ops that are controlled by the farmers, we are going to be strangled by processors who cannot handle our June milk production spike, and are very slow about doing anything about this (2015 is only around the corner, and some talk, but no definitely sign of any extra processing plants on their way)

Tipp Man

Timmaay wrote: »

Nay don't get me wrong, I am optimist about the future of agricultural, I could have stuck to my previous profession, which I spend a good few years in college for etc, and just done part time beef or tillage, but I decided that Diary looked promising enough to take over from my father full time.

In my view, the Supply/Demand graph for the world food will be good for several years to come, as stated in this thread due to two main reasons, world population, and competition from biocrops.

My negative comments were directly aimed at the Irish system, which despite this massive advantage of a low cost grass based system, we have two massive inefficiencies in terms of poor land parcels, and processing capacity for milk, which are two big hurdles that limit us massively in comparison to New Zealand. The processing problem can be put largely down to the processors (who are controlled by shareholders who aren't farmers) investing in international dairy projects, which have a better return on than building new processing plants here in Ireland. Until the farmers have control of the processors, and we go down the route of NZ with one or two large co-ops that are controlled by the farmers, we are going to be strangled by processors who cannot handle our June milk production spike.

Agree entirely

leg wax

if you look at what the meat factories are doing does it not make sence that the milk factories will do the same,as in when they are full they will cut the price to farmer because he wants to supply more and still sell the product at same price, as a businessman thats what i would do more money for me as my imputs are a lot lower in price and no big repayment back to banks just in order to give farmers more money for there product.:cool:

reilig

fodda wrote: »

Is this where organic farming becomes more main stream as it doesnt require the high energy inputs?

Chemicals and man made fertiliser all require energy for the manufacture and application, so is this type of farming only sustainable with low energy costs?

Do you think that organic farming has gone completely out the window since the financial support schemes for it came to an end over the last 2 years?

My personal view is that many of the organic farmers in this country were artifically created just to cream the higher grants and reps payments. I know 4 farmers who were "organic" and who now are back in an ordinary system because the organic system was unsustainable without the grants - high inputs and poor returns.

What's your opinion on it?

BeeDI

According to last nights news, the Chinese have stated, they wish to invest in Irish milk processors:eek:
The chinese taking over our dairy processing plants will be just about as good for the dairy farmers, as Larry taking over the meat plants!!!!!!:mad::mad:

johngalway

reilig wrote: »

My personal view is that many of the organic farmers in this country were artifically created just to cream the higher grants and reps payments. I know 4 farmers who were "organic" and who now are back in an ordinary system because the organic system was unsustainable without the grants - high inputs and poor returns.

That's a fact.

fodda

reilig wrote: »

Do you think that organic farming has gone completely out the window since the financial support schemes for it came to an end over the last 2 years?

My personal view is that many of the organic farmers in this country were artifically created just to cream the higher grants and reps payments. I know 4 farmers who were "organic" and who now are back in an ordinary system because the organic system was unsustainable without the grants - high inputs and poor returns.

What's your opinion on it?

I wouldnt say that it is unsustainable without grants, I would simply say that you are going to get less produce per acre so you actual earnings will be lower but your profits for your produce could be higher (because of less input costs) So as a business enterprise maybe not so profitable?

If they were artificially created then there would be no demand for their produce and the system would have collapsed long ago.

The point is there is a limit to how much people will or can afford to pay for food and with all fuel costs pushing up the price of fertiliser etc, so at what point does it become simply not so attractive to keep spending masses of cash for chemicals/fertiliser and all the shiney new equipment costs, when the public will not or can not afford to pay anymore for your produce so you may aswell cut your costs and produce less food from your land?

It is no secret that because of high food costs there are literally thousands of people in Ireland now keeping chickens for eggs and meat, rabbits for meat, pigs for meat, and many more growing veg on small and large scale backyard farming for themselves.

So they refuse or can not pay the extra prices for the farmers produce.

Tipp Man

reilig wrote: »

Do you think that organic farming has gone completely out the window since the financial support schemes for it came to an end over the last 2 years?

My personal view is that many of the organic farmers in this country were artifically created just to cream the higher grants and reps payments. I know 4 farmers who were "organic" and who now are back in an ordinary system because the organic system was unsustainable without the grants - high inputs and poor returns.

What's your opinion on it?

Personally i think the principals of the organic system are pretty good i.e. low input system. it is more sustainable, easier on the land etc

The problem i would have with organic is the bulls##t red tape and rules that goes with it - most of which are pure ridiculous.

reilig

I'm not arguing with you at all fodda, i just wanted to see what your opinion is because I have seen you post here a few times about organics and I know its an interest for you.

The people that I have spoken to say that it is definitely unsustainable without grants. For sheep and cattle, the input costs are so high (organic hay, silage, meal or ration, as well as approved organic medicinal treatments) and the sales prices are so small (because of poor thrive, lack of grass, ill health, and generally poor weights), organic farmers in my area say that non organic farming is more profitable. Even though non organic farming has higher inputs, better sale prices can be achieved, and animals can be finished and sold on faster (in the current market anyway - who knows what state it will be in in 12 months time).

I'd love to know if membership for IOFGA has dropped much since the Organic scheme and Reps started to run out? Rumour has it that there has been over 50% of a drop?

This 50% are mostly going back into mainstream farming. This is because they feel that they can make better profit.

fodda wrote: »

I wouldnt say that it is unsustainable without grants, I would simply say that you are going to get less produce per acre so you actual earnings will be lower but your profits for your produce could be higher (because of less input costs) So as a business enterprise maybe not so profitable?

If they were artificially created then there would be no demand for their produce and the system would have collapsed long ago.

The point is there is a limit to how much people will or can afford to pay for food and with all fuel costs pushing up the price of fertiliser etc, so at what point does it become simply not so attractive to keep spending masses of cash for chemicals/fertiliser and all the shiney new equipment costs, when the public will not or can not afford to pay anymore for your produce so you may aswell cut your costs and produce less food from your land?

It is no secret that because of high food costs there are literally thousands of people in Ireland now keeping chickens for eggs and meat, rabbits for meat, pigs for meat, and many more growing veg on small and large scale backyard farming for themselves.

So they refuse or can not pay the extra prices for the farmers produce.

Tipp Man

reilig wrote: »

I'm not arguing with you at all fodda, i just wanted to see what your opinion is because I have seen you post here a few times about organics and I know its an interest for you.

The people that I have spoken to say that it is definitely unsustainable without grants. For sheep and cattle, the input costs are so high (organic hay, silage, meal or ration, as well as approved organic medicinal treatments) and the sales prices are so small (because of poor thrive, lack of grass, ill health, and generally poor weights), organic farmers in my area say that non organic farming is more profitable. Even though non organic farming has higher inputs, better sale prices can be achieved, and animals can be finished and sold on faster (in the current market anyway - who knows what state it will be in in 12 months time).

I'd love to know if membership for IOFGA has dropped much since the Organic scheme and Reps started to run out? Rumour has it that there has been over 50% of a drop?

This 50% are mostly going back into mainstream farming. This is because they feel that they can make better profit.

Were these farmers bad farmers to start with?

There is no reason in the world to be short of grass in an organic system - unless you are overstocked or don't know how to manage grass

Organics won't turn a bad farmer into a good one - it will turn them into worse farmers

reilig

Tipp Man wrote: »

Were these farmers bad farmers to start with?

There is no reason in the world to be short of grass in an organic system - unless you are overstocked or don't know how to manage grass

Organics won't turn a bad farmer into a good one - it will turn them into worse farmers

Totally agree with you.

Many bad farmers used the organic scheme as a cover for their bad farming practices - overstocking, bad health management, poor treatment of animals etc.

The farmers I speak of were not bad to start with, but would be farming very poor quality ground with 6 month winters.

One farmer told me that if you farm organically on bad land, then you are always going to be short of grass, no matter what your stocking rate is.

Atilathehun

BeeDI wrote: »

According to last nights news, the Chinese have stated, they wish to invest in Irish milk processors:eek:
The chinese taking over our dairy processing plants will be just about as good for the dairy farmers, as Larry taking over the meat plants!!!!!!:mad::mad:

Agreed! Not a day goes by without our government, signing some kind of agreement or understanding with China. We had a Chinese government guru visit recently and glad handle our grease ball politicians.

Now China can be a real important market for us to sell into, but you know they will want to do business differently. They will want a stake in our leading food companies, get their people over here to watch, listen and learn. They will take us over by the back door, and use us to feed the little ones in China.

We would want to be, very very careful how we deal with them.
The slime ball dictators, throughout Africa, have enriched themselves by selling out their precious natural resources to China.

bob charles

Atilathehun wrote: »

Agreed! Not a day goes by without our government, signing some kind of agreement or understanding with China. We had a Chinese government guru visit recently and glad handle our grease ball politicians.

Now China can be a real important market for us to sell into, but you know they will want to do business differently. They will want a stake in our leading food companies, get their people over here to watch, listen and learn. They will take us over by the back door, and use us to feed the little ones in China.

We would want to be, very very careful how we deal with them.
The slime ball dictators, throughout Africa, have enriched themselves by selling out their precious natural resources to China.

Im glad someone thinks the same as me and I posted my opinion when there men were in town. The government are using this China thing as the great white hope. dream on people

This is what I wrote

Originally Posted by blue5000
I wonder what sort of 'deal' went down at the weekend, Coilte? Nama properties? Mineral (exploitation) rights in Irish waters, any comments lads?

Ah blue we are too cynical. Maybe they are selling Ireland as a going concern!!!!

They were supposedly talking about exporting food, in particular beef, another great scam for the FFers + mates, sell it to Saddam and Gaddafy with a credit export insurance scheme in place and they will all do well, time has past, the lads are dead, do it again - old ones are the best.

The Chinese are notoriously difficult people to do business with, even if you are paying them to export to you, however selling to them will be a minefield.

fodda

reilig wrote: »

One farmer told me that if you farm organically on bad land, then you are always going to be short of grass, no matter what your stocking rate is.

One of the reasons why i think the West except for a few green pockets should be covered in trees.

pakalasa

fodda wrote: »

One of the reasons why i think the West except for a few green pockets should be covered in trees.

Have you seen Redz's fine green field in the heart of the burren.

keep going

nilhg wrote: »

Not sure where my nearest Lamborghini dealer is but I'm looking forward to trying one out


http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/


Seriously though, even though we've heard all this before it does seem that there are better and hopefully more predictable times ahead, when you see the Chinese so active here over the last few months and the possibility of other markets reopening to our produce then hopefully we'll get some payback for the hardships of the past.

do you know ,we will do fine as long as the banks are broke and dont start firing money at us ,that is what frigs things up