Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18071070
A European Central Bank board member has conceded the ECB may have "saved" the eurozone banking system and eurozone economy in Autumn 2011 by providing one trillion euros of emergency loans to hundreds of European banks at an interest rate of just 1%.

ECB Executive Board member, Benoit Coeure, told Robert Peston: "We were very close to a collapse in the banking system in the euro area, which in itself would have also led to a collapse in the economy and deflation, And this is something that the ECB could not accept."

Probably not news to many here but it will be a wake up call to BBC2 viewers.

starlit

What are we actually voting for? I honestly don't know what way to vote!

'Yes' in terms of job creation and 'growth'

'No' in terms of wanting Ireland to be unique, not having to borrow money, have own currency, less likely to go bankrupt with serious dilemmas, considering EU as a whole is nearly bankrupt itself from all the bail outs! Its not really sustainable for Ireland to stay in the Eurozone? Or is it? Its a safety net if we do stay in the Eurozone but its risky for us to get out of the Eurozone which would be more feasible then and sustainable?

At least the UK can stand on their own too feet why can't we? Have we lost our identities as a nation to the EU to stay in an austerity way of life?

Which is better for Ireland stay in the Eurozone or not? Which encourage growth more? Ireland is in a far worse recession this time round than the last time? We still managed to pull out of it or was that due being part of the EU as well as investment from American multinationals whilst creating jobs!?

Long Legged Mack Daddy

What lies ahead?

steve9859

Long Legged Mack Daddy wrote: »

What lies ahead?

Robert Peston on BBC2 at 9.00 'The Great Euro Crash'. Looking at the future of the euro

I am pie

steve9859 wrote: »

Robert Peston on BBC2 at 9.00 'The Great Euro Crash'. Looking at the future of the euro

Started off in gorey!

paddy38

Look lads and lasses the euro zone is so badly diseased now the best thing to do is to put it out of its misery and shoot it dead the whole stability treaty thing is just prolonging the agony why cant some of our leaders just wake up and smell the proverbial coffee and grow a pair fair enough it's going to be tough at first but me personally am not in the humor for fighting with Germany and the likes so please can our leaders just get on with it and let it die and salvage what we can

EURATS

Confirm negative

Smyth

Anyone who falls for the old "yes for jobs" malarkay again needs a stiff kick up the arse.

I had a proper read of it tonight. Gotta be a no.

lkdsl

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

EURATS

lkdsl wrote: »

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

Voting NO doesn't mean leaving the euro or the EU..scaremongering here me thinks!!

And anyone in dept who tries to get out of it by taking out more loans?? MaaaaaaD
Is like using one credit card to pay off the other...recipe for disaster.

Are you trying to say that if we vote yes...that the EU will GIVE us money?

Buford Tannen

lkdsl wrote: »

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

We could have another self aid concert

Dyr

lkdsl wrote: »

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

you are basically this video, except without the satire. Awesome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZfzAOooEOU

EURATS

Buford Tannen wrote: »

lkdsl wrote: »

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

We could have another self aid concert

True..we could have a "thankyou Europe for your vision" concert...make our own instruments(to show how poor we are now). Enda on the spoons, noonan being the head to beat the spoons off, Pat rabbit on strings(shoe box and elastic bands), Joan burton on the gilmore flute...
The lisping politician choir on vocalsssss..with Brian "savage eyes" hayes as lead.


Any more ideas?

Scofflaw

EURATS wrote: »

Voting NO doesn't mean leaving the euro or the EU..scaremongering here me thinks!!

And anyone in dept who tries to get out of it by taking out more loans?? MaaaaaaD
Is like using one credit card to pay off the other...recipe for disaster.

Are you trying to say that if we vote yes...that the EU will GIVE us money?

No, but they'll be the only people who'll lend us it - and we need it because the country's public finances are still buggered from the bursting of the property bubble.

Not having money isn't the same as not needing it.

cordially,
Scofflaw

EURATS

Scofflaw wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

Voting NO doesn't mean leaving the euro or the EU..scaremongering here me thinks!!

And anyone in dept who tries to get out of it by taking out more loans?? MaaaaaaD
Is like using one credit card to pay off the other...recipe for disaster.

Are you trying to say that if we vote yes...that the EU will GIVE us money?

No, but they'll be the only people who'll lend us it - and we need it because the country's public finances are still buggered from the bursting of the property bubble.

Not having money isn't the same as not needing it.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Dramatic cuts to public sector pay..would be a start. If they perform..then look after them.
Value for money on spending would be another. So much waste and lack of innovation in this place. It's unreal.

They mightn't be able to lend it to us if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece empty the ESM pot first. Holland also appear to be in trouble. It will also costs us €11bn to get into that pot.

Again I don't think any sensible person would take out a loan to pay a loan. That's the sort of stuff that went on during the "Celtic tiger" and look how that panned out. Is a poorly thought out situation by people who really don't have the ability to deal with it. School teachers acting as businessmen... Doesn't add up.

And threatening people to sign an agreement is inexcusable. Down right nasty. Shows the kinda people we are dealing with..next thing they'll be kneecapping people

lkdsl

Bambi wrote: »

you are basically this video, except without the satire. Awesome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZfzAOooEOU

I simply asked a question but have not seen any serious attempt to answer it.

The simple arithmetic will have to be dealt with somehow. We are spending more than we are taking in. Currently we are borrowing at cheap rates (that will end next year). After that, we either spend less, raise more in taxes or borrow from someone (or a combination). These facts will not change regardless of how we vote. My question remains - if we vote no, then what?

EURATS

lkdsl wrote: »

Bambi wrote: »

you are basically this video, except without the satire. Awesome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZfzAOooEOU

I simply asked a question but have not seen any serious attempt to answer it.

The simple arithmetic will have to be dealt with somehow. We are spending more than we are taking in. Currently we are borrowing at cheap rates (that will end next year). After that, we either spend less, raise more in taxes or borrow from someone (or a combination). These facts will not change regardless of how we vote. My question remains - if we vote no, then what?

Spend less is a good start..enda kenny on €200,000 a year plus perks? Value for money? And it's only the tip of the iceberg.

And where has Michael D Higgins gone on his €250,000 a year + perks?...back to fraggle rock?

The army playing soldiers in Lebanon? We can allow them do that again when we can afford it.
Aid to Africa? I don't want to sound heartless but who is coming to our aid? Only the grimest of grim reapers!

dvpower

EURATS wrote: »

They mightn't be able to lend it to us if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece empty the ESM pot first. Holland also appear to be in trouble.

If all of those countries empty the full pot the whole of the eurozone is screwed, not just us.

EURATS wrote: »

It will also costs us €11bn to get into that pot.

No it doesn't.
The €11b only comes into play if the entire ESM fund is lent out and then defaulted on.

EURATS wrote: »

Again I don't think any sensible person would take out a loan to pay a loan.

If you couldn't afford to make a mortgage payment, you might take a short term loan to pay it. Not ideal, but we're in an emergency.

EURATS wrote: »

Shows the kinda people we are dealing with..next thing they'll be kneecapping people

... predicting a SF victory in the next GE?

EURATS

dvpower wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

They mightn't be able to lend it to us if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece empty the ESM pot first. Holland also appear to be in trouble.

If all of those countries empty the full pot the whole of the eurozone is screwed, not just us.

€never said it wasn't. Is screwed anyway €

EURATS wrote: »

It will also costs us €11bn to get into that pot.

No it doesn't.
The €11b only comes into play if the entire ESM fund is lent out and then defaulted on.

€more than likely will be used up. Is a small pot in a big oven€

EURATS wrote: »

Again I don't think any sensible person would take out a loan to pay a loan.

If you couldn't afford to make a mortgage payment, you might take a short term loan to pay it. Not ideal, but we're in an emergency.

€ this isn't a short term loan €

EURATS wrote: »

Shows the kinda people we are dealing with..next thing they'll be kneecapping people

... predicting a SF victory in the next GE?

€ maybe...not ideal..but maybe.
polls show them on the up...the people aren't happy..not happy at all€

Is not all that long since Eamon Gilmore was in workers party/official Ira(Séamus Costello(to name one) fell at their hands) and Gilmore is in the front of things now all squeaky clean.

Justice for the individual

lkdsl wrote: »

For those of you who are planning to vote no, one question: If it is rejected, then what?

Leave the Euro? Leave the EU? Return to isolationism, protectionism, inflation, high interest rates, etc? These were what preceded our EEC membership.

Richard Bruton said if a "no vote" it will be run again. Later he said he made a mistake and reiterated that it will be voted on only once. If even Richard is confused, what hope have we got. At first, Richard let his head rule his heart (what he really thinks/knows) but then after a bollocking toed the non-neutral government stance.

Put simply, the government parties (Labour and Fine Gael) as well as Fianna Fail, have already agreed to load all of the debts on to all of the irish people (regardless of who was responsible), and this is going to continue whether we vote yes or no. So what will change? It looks to me that a yes majority in this referendum will make this agreement legally binding and give permission for a never-ending burden of charges or service cuts being inflicted on the irish people.

Remember, Noonan et al, are boasting that a yes vote will guarantee further loans, but appear to forget (or know) that when they are long gone off the political scene, we will still be paying back these loans. If I could not fund my borrowings from the bank, would they give me a bail-out or another loan, not on your nanny! A yes vote will only encourage the arrogant politicians to screw us further and give them a good laugh while they await retirement and lucrative pensions.

In any case, my next door neighbour is following the government lead and has dropped his electricity bill in for me to pay it on his behalf! Paying for the debts of others does not make sense, and yet we are being asked to do this by our government.

emo72

Justice for the individual wrote: »

nice post, makes good sense and hard to argue with. although i daresay someone will dissect it:D

anyway my feelings on the Fiscal Thingy, if there is such a huge amount of undecided, in spite of the the fact that voting no is cutting off your nose to spite your face, well then, its not going to pass.

Dyr

Scofflaw wrote: »

No, but they'll be the only people who'll lend us it - and we need it because the country's public finances are still buggered from the bursting of the property bubble...

Still buggered from the effects or ratifying previous treaties more like

Scofflaw

EURATS wrote: »

Dramatic cuts to public sector pay..would be a start. If they perform..then look after them.
Value for money on spending would be another. So much waste and lack of innovation in this place. It's unreal.

They mightn't be able to lend it to us if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece empty the ESM pot first. Holland also appear to be in trouble. It will also costs us €11bn to get into that pot.

No, although a lot of people share your confusion. You don't have to ratify ESM to get a loan from it. You have to ratify the Fiscal Treaty to get a loan from ESM.

The government is committed to ratifying ESM, so a No will currently see us in the ironic position of being ESM members but not able to get a loan from it.

EURATS wrote: »

Again I don't think any sensible person would take out a loan to pay a loan. That's the sort of stuff that went on during the "Celtic tiger" and look how that panned out. Is a poorly thought out situation by people who really don't have the ability to deal with it. School teachers acting as businessmen... Doesn't add up.

And threatening people to sign an agreement is inexcusable. Down right nasty. Shows the kinda people we are dealing with..next thing they'll be kneecapping people

Eh, taking out loans to pay loans is what every government does, and always have done. We didn't pay off any of our debt capital during the Celtic Tiger, we just rolled it over. Things work slightly differently for states.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

Bambi wrote: »

Still buggered from the effects or ratifying previous treaties more like

Oh, aye. Ratifying Lisbon completely caused our current plight.

amused,
Scofflaw

Seaneh

Bambi wrote: »

Still buggered from the effects or ratifying previous treaties more like

This.

Our budget short comings aren't what are killing us. AIB/Anglo/BOI's private debt to other private companies is.

We drop that debt, we can return to the markets, that is fact, the markets won't lend to us explicitly because they understand we cannot, EVER, afford to carry the millstone that is the debt of failed, insolvent private banks.

The absolute amount of arse talked on boards.ie, ad hominem, about how much we need to be bailed out because we were stupid is actually disgusting. Private banks ****ed up, they should have been let die, like in Iceland, we should have left the Euro, we'd be well on our way to recovery by now. instead we are treated like the redheaded stepchild of the EU and lectured to by people at home and ****tards like Merkel and the french midget ex-president about how much we should be thankful that they are allowing US to bail THEM out.



The Fiscal Compact Treaty is, without doubt, one of the worst things that could happen to us. It needs to be rejected, for the sake of the future of our country, and below are just some of the many reasons why.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU

Seaneh

Just to add to this.

We will need another bailout, so long as we are paying off bank debt, because we can never, no matter how well we do economically, afford to be rid of it, we are ****ed for life with that one.

Voting NO will not, in any way, mean we won't get another bail out and I shall explain why.


The Euro Zone, sepcifically France and Germany, cannot afford to let us not pay it. They would be cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

We are The EU/IMF's cash cow, they will be milking us and letting the calves starve for a long while yet.

EURATS

Scofflaw wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

Dramatic cuts to public sector pay..would be a start. If they perform..then look after them.
Value for money on spending would be another. So much waste and lack of innovation in this place. It's unreal.

They mightn't be able to lend it to us if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece empty the ESM pot first. Holland also appear to be in trouble. It will also costs us €11bn to get into that pot.

No, although a lot of people share your confusion. You don't have to ratify ESM to get a loan from it. You have to ratify the Fiscal Treaty to get a loan from ESM.

The government is committed to ratifying ESM, so a No will currently see us in the ironic position of being ESM members but not able to get a loan from it.

EURATS wrote: »

Again I don't think any sensible person would take out a loan to pay a loan. That's the sort of stuff that went on during the "Celtic tiger" and look how that panned out. Is a poorly thought out situation by people who really don't have the ability to deal with it. School teachers acting as businessmen... Doesn't add up.

And threatening people to sign an agreement is inexcusable. Down right nasty. Shows the kinda people we are dealing with..next thing they'll be kneecapping people

Eh, taking out loans to pay loans is what every government does, and always have done. We didn't pay off any of our debt capital during the Celtic Tiger, we just rolled it over. Things work slightly differently for states.

cordially,
Scofflaw[/


No confusion with your first bit scofflaw. Would argue about the level of loans you're talking about though. No comparison between what's going on and normal operational cash flow

ascanbe

If it's understood, as even our government and all those calling for a yes vote seem to be line with, that there may be additions/addendums to this treaty in the pipe-line, would it not make sense to postpone this referendum until it's clear what, exactly, it entails?

Would anyone here sign a contract put in front them by someone saying 'well, there may be some changes made to this contract/addendums made after you sign up to it, and of course these changes/addendums will be set-in-stone/ will apply to you as you agreed to that, but don't worry, any changes we make will definitely be in your best interest'.

Anyone who would sign such a contract would be an idiot.

uch

I always think this says Fecal treaty, so it must be ****é

Go Tobban

Seaneh wrote: »

Just to add to this.

Voting NO will not, in any way, mean we won't get another bail out and I shall explain why.

The Euro Zone, sepcifically France and Germany, cannot afford to let us not pay it. They would be cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

Exactly. We still have a good bit of bargaining power in the position we are in, if only our politcians had some balls to stand up and realise this. If we need a second bailout, which is looking fairly likely at this stage, they cannot really refuse to give it to us because if we go down, we can take Europe with us