Summer 2012. What will it be like?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

.. I do have an opinion on long range forecasts and their level of success especially those that say they can forecast to the day years in advance!

Well, I don't say I can forecast to the day years in advance. I merely say it is possible to comment on trends by looking at cycles. One has to have a point of focus and so a day is named. But it is not a literal day except to someone looking for fault.

MTC, thanks for your longrange look. You and I appear to agree that Europe will be very hot but Ireland will mostly miss those extremes.
You and I appear to agree that Ireland's summer will be something between last year's mild one and next year's forthcoming hot one - I think next year's warmth will be probably due to the peaking of Cycle 24.
We further both agree that predictions can be made about trends that might be expected several months ahead, by analysing either solar or lunar cycles or both. This is in deference to the claims of some that future predictions which by their nature are at variance to the admitted abilities of Met Eirann, must all be impossible and some attempt to con people. It is also fascinating that I seem to get double the flack for attempting longrange whilst you appear to get none!
Your prediction of temperatures for Ireland around 28-30C about the 20th-25th July is interesting, and I respectfully ask how you reach that conclusion. As it is a time the moon is changing from north to south declination, I would have thought temperatures should be higher on or nearer the 29th-30th, when the moon is in the south and in perigee. But if you turn out to be correct then I will stand corrected.

fizzycyst

Ireland's summer will be something between last year's mild one and next year's forthcoming hot one

I would hardly call last summer mild, actually I would say most people found it to be pretty chilly. Anyhow, regardless of how it felt, the official figures show that temperatures were below average in Ireland for the three months of last summer.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/summer11sum.pdf

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Well, I don't say I can forecast to the day years in advance. I merely say it is possible to comment on trends by looking at cycles. One has to have a point of focus and so a day is named. But it is not a literal day except to someone looking for fault.

Do you want me to go and find the todayfm podcast where you said you can?

bb1234567

fizzycyst wrote: »

I would hardly call last summer mild, actually I would say most people found it to be pretty chilly. Anyhow, regardless of how it felt, the official figures show that temperatures were below average in Ireland for the three months of last summer.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/summer11sum.pdf

Last years summer felt like this years winter...

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

I think this comment is inflammatory. Would it be fair to say that this thread is for viewpoints about summer, not viewpoints about other people's work?

Both, surely?

Wild Bill

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

but you do have something to look forward to in that case, either a warm summer or making fun of MTC around the end of the summer.

Which would you rather have?

Both would be nice!

Pity to have to choose........:D

Record high for May may be an omen!

Joe Public

Bicycle wrote: »

Hi everyone,

Reading through M.T.'s absolutely fabulous forecast (both in its detail, its hoped accuracy and its matching what I want for summer 2012 , thank you so much M.T.!!) could any one with some level of expertise please explain the "Leaving Certificate" effect???



The Leaving Cert starts this year on the 6th June and many of the heavy exams will be done during the 7th and the 12th!!

Thankfully I don't have kids doing the LC or JC this year but it always appears that the weather seems to pick up during this time.

Just curious... particularly with MT's specific dates.

Maybe the leaving cert results will be better this year since the weather forecast is not so good for the exam period. This may change but not looking good at the moment.

Redsunset

July could be promising according to Joe B.

emo72

mt cranium, said early in june, that long range forecast showed a chance of improved weather from mid june onwards. i clung on to this. im assuming now that the chance of improvement has forsaken us?

Redsunset

The last week in June is giving signs of high pressure near us giving a scorcher.

EAFC_rdfl

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Summer of 2012 -- reasonably warm with a variable pattern

This is MTC's summer forecast based on the ongoing research and a detailed numerical index method that is continuously upgraded from results of previous forecasts.

...................

It is likely to be quite a hot summer in most of Europe although not so much in the Baltic regions. There may be some instances of severe heat as close as France and even southeast England but I'll stick my neck out and say that the seasonal high for Ireland will be 28 to 29 C, with a slight chance of cracking the 30-degree barrier. This is not a guarantee by any stretch, but this highest temperature is most likely around 20-25 July (from the numerical output) or perhaps in the early to mid June warm spell (expecting it might produce a close contender anyway). The later seasonal warmth is likely to be frequent excursions into the low 20s with somewhat more of a maritime origin.
...........

Hi MT, now that we are a month out from the dates you mentioned above in July, how do you feel about the weather for July 20-25, anything to make you change that prediction showing up? our wedding is on the 21st so Im hoping what you foreseen above proves to be true!

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June, which will be the best time for holidays.

As for best time for holidays, as I have said my choice would be the last ten days of June.

Ken Ring

I think my warning of taking Long Range forecasts with a pinch of salt has been justified

Gipo3

Villain wrote: »

I think my warning of taking Long Range forecasts with a pinch of salt has been justified

You could have quoted MT as well.

M.T. Cranium

The first three weeks of June have been rather dire in general (perhaps d'eire) but more wet than cold. However, I remain optimistic for high summer being fabulous or at least a lot better than the recent past.

Looking for some evidence, I turned to my data set for 353 years of the CET, and asked it to print out a list of years with a 1.7 C increase greater than average (which is already 1.5 C) June to the combined July-August. In other words, it usually warms up in this similar-to-Ireland data set by 1.5 degrees but I looked for the largest warmings greater than 3.2 deg.

What stood out immediately was that this is a rare event over the long period but was quite common between 1971 and 1997 with ten cases out of twenty-seven. We haven't seen one since 1997 (2009 was a less extreme case), and before 1970 there were perhaps ten others in three centuries. Some earlier years that qualified included two weak solar max years in the 18th century (1705, 1749) as well as 1822 and 1869. In the earlier 20th century there were cases in 1917, 1923 and 1927 as well as 1944.

During that more frequent period in the 70s to 90s, we find cases where very hot summers developed from sub-standard Junes (1983, 1990) and the latter case looked quite similar on archived daily weather maps in late June of 1990 -- it then took the first half of July to flush out the remnant weaker cyclonic signal and replace it with an anticyclonic warm spell that saw temperatures well into the 30s at times (in the UK, would imagine 25-30 in Ireland).

So there is some hope that this June, which looks set to average about 1.5 below long-term June normals (in both CET and our contest IMT) can be followed by warm, settled months, either both or just August in some cases (more rarely just July, I think I spotted two of those). Now bear in mind that this net caught one or two very ordinary summers such as 1972 following an exceptionally cold June that year. But for this one to qualify, July and or August will have to be very warm. I think we're on the right path looking at the 10-16 day GFS output.

Fully Established

Finally looks like the Atlantic low pressures might be finally moving away from us enabling the high pressure from the Azores to hopefully move north.

ednwireland

probably means it wont stop raining in donegal

Outkast_IRE

Fully Established wrote: »

Finally looks like the Atlantic low pressures might be finally moving away from us enabling the high pressure from the Azores to hopefully move north.

Really, the met eireann (i know they arent great) 5 day looks like a belt of rain hitting us most days.

When do you expect us to maybe get some nice days ? Fingers crossed here.

Fully Established

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

Really, the met eireann (i know they arent great) 5 day looks like a belt of rain hitting us most days.

When do you expect us to maybe get some nice days ? Fingers crossed here.

It looks like it could move north from about 10 days or so its a lifetime in weather , but the indications are there.

boatbuilder

Do you mean this?? Long way off!

Fully Established

Thats the one i have acknowledged its 10 days away which leaves a lot of opportunity for it to change but it looks good for the time been .

ZX7R

A good few of the charts are starting to show the azores high starting to build in that time frame ,lets hope so...

delw

Maybe the thread title should be named "Fantasy Island Summer Weather" because that chart is FI

Gallee

delw wrote: »

Maybe the thread title should be named "Fantasy Island Summer Weather" because that chart is FI

FI ? What does that mean? I 'am new to trying to read charts so why would this high not move according to the chart?
Cheers for the info.

ZX7R

Gallee wrote: »

FI ? What does that mean? I 'am new to trying to read charts so why would this high not move according to the chart?
Cheers for the info.

When a chart is that far out it is said on bords that its fantasy island,so hence F.I The weather can change on charts between each run.

Deep Easterly

IMT summer mean temp so far (up to 30th June) running 0.6°c below the 1981-2010 normal, but thankfully, still 1.0°c higher than that of this stage last year. A chart to show IMT mean temp trend of both the summer period this year and last to show comparison:



Needless to say it has been a wet month everywhere. Over the IMT zone, mean sea level pressure values finished around 8.0 hPa below normal which could make them the lowest values on record for the month of June.


Data from met.ie / Ogimet / NOAA

Big Tone

How wrong can this guy be?!


"The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June. Little or no heavy rain events are expected between the third week in May to mid July. Warm temperatures may occur during the fourth week in June"

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=396&type=home

Kenring

Big Tone wrote: »

How wrong can this guy be?!


"The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June. Little or no heavy rain events are expected between the third week in May to mid July. Warm temperatures may occur during the fourth week in June"

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=396&type=home

Oh yes, but see the wider picture. I did say, in my 2012 almanac, rain is going to be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. My claim is for 80% accuracy, which means at least 2 months in any year may be out. One of those may have been June this year, which has been wetter than I expected. There is also a 50-mile radius in all forecasting.
I also said (in the almanac 2012) heat waves in Central Europe were likely this summer, but not for Ireland. If easterlies are strong enough, the hotter air travelling west causes more evaporation, and that must fall as rain somewhere. It looks as if easterlies have been strong and frequent enough to carry this warmer upper-level air as far as Ireland, causing the rain. In other words the rain is a function of heat somewhere else and where the wind is prevailing from. I have no way of predicting this as archival wind direction figures are not available to me. Met Eirann will not supply them, despite my requests to purchase them.
Rain amounts are due to evaporation rates beforehand somewhere, which means sun’s heat. Rain amounts are not determined by the moon. Therefore whilst weather timing is mainly lunar, and predictable, amounts are not.
There is only so much I can do, and when I recommend holiday periods it is without considering the sun-heat factor elsewhere. The method is not faulty, it is the politics of the official meteorologists that obstruct me. So you can take it that the dry times I suggest would be worth considering, but if you are reading about heatwaves in either Europe and/or England, then there may be the overlay factor of potential for rain in Ireland taking note of the wind directions.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Oh yes, but see the wider picture. I did say, in my 2012 almanac, rain is going to be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. My claim is for 80% accuracy, which means at least 2 months in any year may be out. One of those may have been June this year, which has been wetter than I expected. There is also a 50-mile radius in all forecasting.
I also said (in the almanac 2012) heat waves in Central Europe were likely this summer, but not for Ireland. If easterlies are strong enough, the hotter air travelling west causes more evaporation, and that must fall as rain somewhere. It looks as if easterlies have been strong and frequent enough to carry this warmer upper-level air as far as Ireland, causing the rain. In other words the rain is a function of heat somewhere else and where the wind is prevailing from. I have no way of predicting this as archival wind direction figures are not available to me. Met Eirann will not supply them, despite my requests to purchase them.
Rain amounts are due to evaporation rates beforehand somewhere, which means sun’s heat. Rain amounts are not determined by the moon. Therefore whilst weather timing is mainly lunar, and predictable, amounts are not.
There is only so much I can do, and when I recommend holiday periods it is without considering the sun-heat factor elsewhere. The method is not faulty, it is the politics of the official meteorologists that obstruct me. So you can take it that the dry times I suggest would be worth considering, but if you are reading about heatwaves in either Europe and/or England, then there may be the overlay factor of potential for rain in Ireland taking note of the wind directions.

This is the same guy that said live on Today FM that he could forecast to the day years in advance.

However when called out on his poor record he finds every excuse under the Sun (pun intended) 50 mile radius, rain could be mist or heavy dew temps aren't really accurate etc etc

It's not just June he has got wrong and I'm not talking as someone who is just going by what he posts here, I bought his forecast for a year and when I called him on the poor results he used every excuse you can think of!

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

This is the same guy that said live on Today FM that he could forecast to the day years in advance.

However when called out on his poor record he finds every excuse under the Sun (pun intended) 50 mile radius, rain could be mist or heavy dew temps aren't really accurate etc etc

It's not just June he has got wrong and I'm not talking as someone who is just going by what he posts here, I bought his forecast for a year and when I called him on the poor results he used every excuse you can think of!

Oh come on Villain, this is very old stuff and you have had a go at me dredging this up several times now on other threads. You admitted then that you were a meteorologist and ordered a report from me just so you could pick holes in it. So what else could one expect?!! And no, you heard wrong on TodayFM about 5 years ago. I can't forecast to the day years in advance and don't claim to be able to. But I can comment on trends in advance based on lunar cycles because this is the free world and it is opinion, nothing more. Nothing wrong with that unless you have elected yourself the Thought Police. Forums are places to express opinions.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Oh come on Villain, this is very old stuff and you have had a go at me dredging this up several times now on other threads. You admitted then that you were a meteorologist and ordered a report from me just so you could pick holes in it. So what else could one expect?!! And no, you heard wrong on TodayFM about 5 years ago. I can't forecast to the day years in advance and don't claim to be able to. But I can comment on trends in advance based on lunar cycles because this is the free world and it is opinion, nothing more. Nothing wrong with that unless you have elected yourself the Thought Police. Forums are places to express opinions.

You see once again you say I'm a meteorologist. I'm going to state it once again for you: I am not a meteorologist I have a weather station and I provide the information is records for free to people via a website. I have no qualifcations that make me a meteorologist. I have said that about 10 times to you now but you can't seem to grasp it.

I'll go do a search for the Today FM clip because you did say you could forecast to the day years in advance.

I'm not the thought police at all however you have on several occasions been called on the product you sell and you either make excuse after excuse or attack me and call for the mods to kill the debate. This is a discussion forum.