Cool regime to remain into May - often unsettled

darkman2

So some rain at times and temperatures generally restricted to high single figures or low double figures. At night temperatures will remain close to freezing (some frost at times) but mostly remaining just above freezing. There is not a hope of significantly milder weather on the horizon. Generally pressure looks to decrease more to the southeast and the continent which leaves us in a sort of no mans land cool drift from the northeast which will be stubborn to break. For storm watchers however the forseeable future is productive with low pressure dominant and slack deviations of a generally northerly flow which will shift west or east of northerly from time to time and today is no exception. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. Heavy prolonged rain at times aswell. That's the story for the near future.

ednwireland

you see thats where all this wishing for cold weather leads you

rhonin

darkman2 wrote: »

So some rain at times and temperatures generally restricted to high single figures or low double figures. At night temperatures will remain close to freezing (some frost at times) but mostly remaining just above freezing. And it gets worse because even accepting an above average rate of miscalculation by the models in variants as they relate to variables associated with the general weather pattern be it synoptically or whatever to a timescale in FI there is not a hope of milder weather on the horizon. Generally pressure looks to decrease more to the southeast and the continent which leaves us in a sort of no mans land cool drift from the northeast which will be stubborn to break. For storm watchers however the forseeable future is productive with low pressure dominant and slack deviations of a generally northerly flow which will shift west or east of northerly from time to time and today is no exception. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. Heavy prolonged rain at times aswell. That's the story for the near future.

Jesus that is depressing.
Thanks for ruining my Friday

Sponge Bob

darkman2 wrote: »

So some rain at times and temperatures generally restricted to high single figures or low double figures. At night temperatures will remain close to freezing (some frost at times) but mostly remaining just above freezing. And it gets worse because even accepting an above average rate of miscalculation by the models in variants as they relate to variables associated with the general weather pattern be it synoptically or whatever to a timescale in FI there is not a hope of milder weather on the horizon.


That's the story for the near future.

Is that you Piers Corbyn?????

kippy

Some people are obsessed with "milder weather", anytime I see "milder weather" mentioned on the TV forecasts, it is usually accompanied with rain, and lots of it.

I love this type of weather, yeah it's cooler, but it is generally sunnier, with less rain and the likes.


We were on holidays in the West of Ireland last week, the forecast on the TV and most websites I checked was for rain showers (at best) every day, luckily every day was sunny, some cool, but with only one day with showers. It was great and I have not idea why the forecasts were so off.

Sponge Bob

kippy wrote: »

We were on holidays in the West of Ireland last week, the forecast on the TV and most websites I checked was for rain showers (at best) every day, luckily every day was sunny, some cool, but with only one day with showers. It was great and I have not idea why the forecasts were so off.

Exactly. Only last Tuesday was anyway seriously wet ( showery) for me and I found myself in a completely empty Dún Aonghus in glorious sunshine on wednesday.

And for the peace and quiet and amazing scenery I must thank the ludicrous weather forecasts that were issued every day last week.

rhonin

kippy wrote: »

Some people are obsessed with "milder weather", anytime I see "milder weather" mentioned on the TV forecasts, it is usually accompanied with rain, and lots of it.

I love this type of weather, yeah it's cooler, but it is generally sunnier, with less rain and the likes.


We were on holidays in the West of Ireland last week, the forecast on the TV and most websites I checked was for rain showers (at best) every day, luckily every day was sunny, some cool, but with only one day with showers. It was great and I have not idea why the forecasts were so off.

Unfortunately not where I am hence the hope for some mild weather accompanied by sun of course. One can only hope though

Harps

The reasons the forecasts have been 'off' is that showers are building from the north and west and only start falling once they get further inland. Barely a drop of rain all week here apart from the front that passed through the other night and mostly sunny which has been great. Yesterday it rained all day about 20 miles south of me yet we were basking in sunshine all day so I'd gladly keep this pattern for another week or two

Sponge Bob

Been pretty nice round my way since easter bar Monday night and Tuesday. Bit of warmth from the sunshine and a nip at night thats all. It is April

weisses

Same here ..... baking inside the polytunnel

J6P

Most of the 06z ensembles hinting at a warm up as we head into May..hopefully that trend continues.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

bb1234567

Dublin seems to be getting much worse weather than the rest of the country recently. Its been raining on off since monday morning this week, some very heavy intervals of rain at times. A lot of hail also and some thunder. Theres been a few bright and sunny times during the week where it warned up to about 111 degress at most, but once the clouds roll in it drops about 6 degrees and starts lashing. Its also been sooo cold in the mornings and I heard there was grass frosts,3.5 degrees when i woke up one morning last week. The weathers been crazy changeable this week.

pauldry

bb1234567 wrote: »

Dublin seems to be getting much worse weather than the rest of the country recently. Its been raining on off since monday morning this week, some very heavy intervals of rain at times. A lot of hail also and some thunder. Theres been a few bright and sunny times during the week where it warned up to about 111 degress at most, but once the clouds roll in it drops about 6 degrees and starts lashing. Its also been sooo cold in the mornings and I heard there was grass frosts,3.5 degrees when i woke up one morning last week. The weathers been crazy changeable this week.

aw

pauldry

only jokin its just we get it all the time but 111 degrees isnt bad

darkman2

Possible flooding midweek in the South and East may provide some newspaper columns later in the coming week. Looks a little nasty from Tuesday through to Thursday evening in terms of persistent, heavy rainfall.

Strong winds possible too

M.T. Cranium

The 00z GFS run looked even colder than previous runs, but the ECM is somewhat more moderate looking after the end of next week. I do think there's a good chance of some cold, unsettled spells in May to continue the trend that has been digging in this month. It seems to be the kind of blocking pattern that could include a few milder southeasterly spells so I'm leaning towards a May forecast temperature anomaly of something like zero to one degree below normal, by mid-month normals are something like 15 C daytime, 7 C for lows, and 11 C overall. There are no doubt going to be some much colder days than that average, especially if the GFS verifies. But I was looking over the long historical record of the CET which has to be fairly similar most years, and there's a tendency for months that start cold to end up with a warm spell after the 20th.

Min

kippy wrote: »

Some people are obsessed with "milder weather", anytime I see "milder weather" mentioned on the TV forecasts, it is usually accompanied with rain, and lots of it.

I love this type of weather, yeah it's cooler, but it is generally sunnier, with less rain and the likes.


We were on holidays in the West of Ireland last week, the forecast on the TV and most websites I checked was for rain showers (at best) every day, luckily every day was sunny, some cool, but with only one day with showers. It was great and I have not idea why the forecasts were so off.

Well so far April at my location has a mean temperature 2.2C lower than March with higher rainfall.

FTGFOP

Is there any end in sight to the showery conditions?

Squeaksoutloud

FTGFOP wrote: »

Is there any end in sight to the showery conditions?

From MT's forecast today - maybe an improvement on the cards:

MONDAY ... Any rain clearing away with hazy mixture of cloud and sun, a bit milder in southeast winds but may be chilly near east coast due to sea breezes. Highs generally 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... A more settled period should follow, milder air will slowly work west across Britain but a cooler pool remaining near Ireland and Biscay will perhaps interact with this to produce cloud and some drizzle rather than any strong warming trend, at least for a while, but there could be some slight warming later in the week (to about 14-17 C). Nights may remain rather chilly. Fog is likely to be part of the picture too.

ninebeanrows

This is just LUDICROUS.

Some Mad Day Snowfall? :eek:

MiNdGaM3

Hmmmm... the great May blizzard of 2012...

Musicman2000

Looks like winter is making up for lost time:)

Birdnuts

We were always going to pay for all that mild gunk in winter proper - just hope early May doesn't set a trend that consigns yet another Irish summer to the bin:(

MiNdGaM3

Birdnuts wrote: »

We were always going to pay for all that mild gunk in winter proper - just hope early May doesn't set a trend that consigns yet another Irish summer to the bin:(

One man's trash is another man's treasure!

smellslikeshoes

Weathercheck wrote: »

This is just LUDICROUS.

Some Mad Day Snowfall? :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1622.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012042812/gfs-2-162.png?12?12

Piers Corbyn must be feeling pretty smug with that chart after his predictions here, even a broken clock is right twice a day :pac:

darkman2

An exceptionally cold period of weather for the time of year is on the horizon but it's a bit out yet to get into any meaningful discussion about it. High pressure looks to anchor itself to the Northwest as pressure drops to the South. I think this period coming up could be very unusual if trends persist and wintry weather cannot be ruled out either at this stage.

Birdnuts

darkman2 wrote: »

An exceptionally cold period of weather for the time of year is on the horizon but it's a bit out yet to get into any meaningful discussion about it. High pressure looks to anchor itself to the Northwest as pressure drops to the South. I think this period coming up could be very unusual if trends persist and wintry weather cannot be ruled out either at this stage.

Sounds more or less the situation that persisted right though summer 2011:(

who_ru

Birdnuts wrote: »

Sounds more or less the situation that persisted right though summer 2011:(

what a dire prospect that is.

Gonzo

who_ru wrote: »

what a dire prospect that is.

except that this summer could potentially be even colder and wetter than last year's. Time to book some time in spain this summer methinks.

Gonzo

Weathercheck wrote: »

This is just LUDICROUS.

Some Mad Day Snowfall? :eek:

perhaps were about to see a repeat of this http://youtu.be/FwzQdonX9YE

bb1234567

Gonzo wrote: »

except that this summer could potentially be even colder and wetter than last year's. Time to book some time in spain this summer methinks.

DONT SAY THAT!!! I could not even imagine a colder or wetter summer than last yr:eek: last summer felt much colder than most of this whole winter, and youre saying this summer could be even worse?!? Well I suppose the trend of colder winter and cold summers would still be keeping up if this summer is cold, we were very close to a cold winter this yr, most of europe even the uk froze for a lot of the winter, Ireland only just missed out on its 4th cold winter in a row.So maybe madden and corbyn arent too far off with their little ice age theories.