May 2012 Boards forecast contest

Deep Easterly

K_1 wrote: »

It says banned under his username, hardly permanent is it?!

I hope not. I thought his humorous little quips were very funny sometimes.

Harps

Yeah I've always enjoyed Bill's posts, hope he's not gone for good

If Robben scored his pen then I'd have had it in the bag at 2-1 AET, Chelsea's name was clearly on the cup from the start

12.2C at Charemorris according to ogimet

M.T. Cranium

I noticed that. Which side was paying Robben to be out there?

By the way, I just realized that the official score in football is 1-1 with result decided by p.k., not 2-1 as I implied. The 2-1 score would be how they report a 1-1 after overtime hockey game decided by penalty shootout.

I do some sports lottery betting so I should have remembered this technicality. In any case, that makes it even more official that nobody among us actually predicted the result, but I think we can safely say that Iancar missed by the largest margin.

Sponge Bob

Hopefully Bill is only on a short hiatus. I'll punt some numbers in on his behalf if he is not unbanned in time for the June contest.

M.T. Cranium

The bonus question result was in fact 12.2 C, congrats to both Jerry Seinfeld (12.4) and homolumo (12.5) for very close guesses; my 11.4 is equidistant from the pin with two (Waterways and wild Bill) at 13.0. So under the rules those five will share the ten points, and then scores go in clumps of three, four, four etc with ties until the four (or so) highest predictions score zero.

For homolumo, it's a double since his football prediction came closest to reality, as the only one to mention penalties.

M.T. Cranium

Update for week three (15-22 May) ...

IMT is now at 8.6 C, with the week at 9.3, but this will rise steadily in the warmer weather. Each day that averages 15 will add about 0.25 to the IMT. I expect it will finish close to 11 C.

This past week was rather dry at 49% of normal, and that brings the monthly average down below normal as well, to 96%. This value should continue to fall off but could recover.

Sunshine for five available stations was only 57% and that brings the monthly average to 80% but this may be inflated depending on where the sun burns through marine cloud -- and depending on what is reported in the summary, because we may find a value for Valentia and this has not been in the weekly reports.

The monthly max is clearly about to receive a boost that some will find welcome. Any suggestions for an event in June (preferably weekend of 9-10) as a backdrop for the bonus question?

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Update for week three (15-22 May) ...

IMT is now at 8.6 C, with the week at 9.3, but this will rise steadily in the warmer weather. Each day that averages 15 will add about 0.25 to the IMT. I expect it will finish close to 11 C.

This past week was rather dry at 49% of normal, and that brings the monthly average down below normal as well, to 96%. This value should continue to fall off but could recover.

Sunshine for five available stations was only 57% and that brings the monthly average to 80% but this may be inflated depending on where the sun burns through marine cloud -- and depending on what is reported in the summary, because we may find a value for Valentia and this has not been in the weekly reports.

The monthly max is clearly about to receive a boost that some will find welcome. Any suggestions for an event in June (preferably weekend of 9-10) as a backdrop for the bonus question?

10th June - Irelands first game in Euro 2012 against Croatia. Scoreline prediction for the lulz aswell -

pauldry

21.2c at malin and finner today

my prediction 21c

can we start June contest tomorrow? :P

Wild Bill

Sandyford 22.0C today; highest of the year so far, beating the March high!

Thanks folks!

(Alas! My sense of humour is regarded as "trolling" by some folk. I really must try to curb my lighter side

M.T. Cranium

Okay, who said 24 or higher? Nice going if you did.

For the June bonus, I will offer a triple chance question, the max temperature in Dublin on the 10th, the temperature in Poznan Poland at game time (21z METAR) and even the score of the game ... here's how it will work ... you can guess all three or just one or two, doesn't matter, you'll get the max score of any of your guesses. The football score will max out at 5 though, this is after all a weather contest. So let's say you blow the Dublin question but get Poznan right, that's ten points for you. Same the other way around. If you blow both of them and get the score right (win, lose or draw will count three then two more for goals being right) that's a consolation of five points.

They didn't exactly give you an easy group there, did they? Italy and Spain? Aargh.

Will post the contest tomorrow some time, lots of time yet.

John mac

Okay, who said 24 or higher?

me me me me :D

pauldry

25.1c in Shannon wowzers

still 22c at 9pm fluckin hell

"only" 23.4c in Sligo today

Rikand

was getting a solid 25.0 in the car all day. what a glorious day!

K_1

25 in belmullet at midday.

rameire

27 at Shannon at 3pm
26 Mace Head
25 Oak Park
25 Claremorris
loads of 25's

M.T. Cranium

Minimum progression rule (mercy rule) now in place for the max, that gives Iancar29 a score of 18, then we go 16, 14, 12, 11 etc down to 1 point. Will be extra-merciful and give anyone over 22 one point, how's that?

IMT must be soaring by 0.3 a day, would estimate it at 9.4 C now, will be close to 10 by Monday. Should finish around 10.5. Rise will slow down for two reasons, not quite as warm, and more in the tank to dilute.

Su Campu

Max of 27.8 °C at Shannon. Unlikely to be beaten!

Deep Easterly

Today's IMT mean maxima (assuming that no higher values were recorded after 6pm) of 24.6c is the highest IMT mean max since the 23rd May 2010, when it then reached 24.9c.

Strasser

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Minimum progression rule (mercy rule) now in place for the max, that gives Iancar29 a score of 18, then we go 16, 14, 12, 11 etc down to 1 point. Will be extra-merciful and give anyone over 22 one point, how's that?

Isn't it quiet remarkable how often the mercy rule has to be applied. Its says something, not sure what. Our remarkable variable climate, our poor forecasting skills, being too stuck on the prevailing pattern when we make our forecasts, any other theories?

M.T. Cranium

It seemed daring enough to go as high as 24 in the circumstances at the end of April. Sometimes in the past the "mercy rule" has been applied more for the benefit of the field than one or two guesses that might have scored anyway, but this time, all guesses fell wide of the 2.0 C error range for maximum.

dacogawa

I dared, I believed (24.1)

M.T. Cranium

Week four UPDATE and it's a much different story now ...

IMT is now at 10.5 C, after a very warm week that averaged 16.1 C ... this rampage should be subdued now, but a finish around 11.0 seems likely.

The week was almost dry, apart from half the normal amount at Valentia, so with 11% added to the previous, we are now well below normal at 75%. This may go back up if the showers are heavy enough next two days, but probably not much.

Sunshine for five available stations was 161% despite Cork being somewhat cloudy. This leaves the average at 120% with some rather cloudy weather to end the month, and the unknown factor of Valentia, in or out of the summary? That would bring the total down towards normal. At least after this month we should know the future of this imponderable.

M.T. Cranium

These are the final data for May ...

IMT 11.0

MAX 27.8 (25th, Shannon)

MIN -3.6 (6th, Casement)

PRC 80% of normal

SUN 93% normal

19th at Claremorris 12.2 C

It turned out that Valentia was in the sunshine data in the Summary. I would imagine they are accessing automated data at the site but also, the normals have been updated to 1981-2010 for all values which has thrown off my estimates from the Ag Reports (which were using an earlier set of normals).

I had to work out Claremorris to figure out its actual value, previously I could go by the anomaly in the Summary, but I have no idea what value the anomaly was derived from, since there is no listed 1981-2010 normal value. My calculation shows 11.6 or 11.7 depending on rounding conventions for Claremorris and I had the other four stations from the monthly data section. Either value gives 11.0 overall.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for May 2012 contest
__________________________________

Forecaster .......... IMT ... MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN ... Cla-19 .... TOTALS
______________________________________________________________

MiNdGaM3 ............ 25 .... 10* .. 18 .... 09 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 70
Joe Public ............ 11 .... 13* .. 13 .... 12 .... 09 .... 08 ..... 66
M.T. Cranium ........ 19 .... 12* .. 12 .... 05 .... 07 .... 10 ..... 65
nilhg ................... 25 .... 13* .. 00 .... 12 .... 08 .... 01 ..... 59
dacogawa ............ 24 .... 14* .. 00 .... 02 .... 10 .... 09 ..... 59
jambofc* ............. 17 .... 02* .. 18 .... 04 .... 10 .... 08 ..... 59
talkabout ............. 25 .... 11* .. 03 .... 05 .... 09 .... 05 ..... 58
homolumo ............ 21 .... 08* .. 07 .... 04 .... 08 .... 10 ..... 58
Tae laidir ............. 23 .... 12* .. 00 .... 13 .... 06 .... 03 ..... 57
jd ....................... 23 .... 03* .. 08 .... 09 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 53
Iancar29 ............. 17 .... 18* .. 00 .... 10 .... 07 .... 00 ..... 52
Sponge Bob ......... 22 .... 03* .. 00 .... 10 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 52
Wild Bill ............... 22 .... 00 .... 01 .... 08 .... 10 .... 10 ..... 51
Rickylovesuall* ..... 20 .... 05* .. 05 .... 12 .... 05 .... 04 ..... 51
Jerry Seinfeld ........17 .... 05* .. 02 .... 07 .... 10 .... 10 ..... 51
okla .................... 16 .... 03* .. 04 .... 12 .... 07 .... 09 ..... 51
snowstreams ........ 24 .... 07* .. 00 .... 10 .... 08 .... 02 ..... 51
kindredspirit ......... 23 .... 04* .. 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 04 ..... 50
Danno* ............... 21 .... 00 .... 10 .... 02 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 50
pauldry ................ 24 .... 01* .. 00 .... 11 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 49
patneve2 ............. 24 .... 02* .. 05 .... 02 .... 10 .... 05 ..... 48

Con Sensus .......... 21 .... 03* .. 00 .... 09 .... 10 .... 05 ..... 48

waterways ........... 23 .... 05* .. 00 .... 00 .... 09 .... 10 ..... 47
traecy1 ............... 24 .... 07* .. 00 .... 08 .... 07 .... 01 ..... 47
Harps .................. 20 .... 01* .. 05 .... 02 .... 10 .... 09 ..... 47
John mac ............. 15 .... 16* .. 00 .... 07 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 46
hotwhiskey .......... 24 .... 02* .. 00 .... 07 .... 09 .... 03 ..... 45
Rebelbrowser* ...... 24 .... 09* .. 00 .... 01 .... 04 .... 06 ..... 44
Lumi ................... 21 .... 03* .. 01 .... 07 .... 06 .... 06 ..... 44
cherryghost ......... 21 .... 00 .... 00 .... 08 .... 10 .... 05 ..... 44
H2UMrsRobinson .... 07 .... 00 .... 10 .... 10 .... 08 .... 08 ..... 43
NIALL_D .............. 19 .... 03* .. 00 .... 11 .... 09 .... 00 ..... 42
DOCARCH ............ 18 .... 00 .... 00 .... 06 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 41
rameire ............... 18 .... 02* .. 00 .... 12 .... 06 .... 03 ..... 41
redsunset* .......... 15 .... 00 .... 19 .... 01 .... 05 .... 01 ..... 41
lostinashford ........ 18 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 .... 09 .... 08 ..... 40
200motels ........... 16 .... 08* .. 00 .... 12 .... 03 .... 01 ..... 40
mickger844posts* . 17 .... 02* .. 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 02 ..... 40
delw .................. 15 .... 00 .... 00 .... 09 .... 09 .... 06 ..... 39
Hammer Archer .... 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 06 .... 09 .... 04 ..... 39
SeaFields ............ 20 .... 05* .. 00 .... 00 .... 03 .... 08 ..... 36
K_1 .................... 15 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 .... 09 .... 04 ..... 33
dasa29 ............... 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 .... 07 .... 01 ..... 33
Strasser .............. 09 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 07 .... 06 ..... 29
Gonzo ................. 12 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 26
_______________________________________________________

* forecasters late, no penalties applied
* MAX scores adjusted by "minimum progression" rule (raw scores all zero)

Congrats to Mindgame and Joe Public for leading this month's contest, the scores in general were fairly tight around the average compared to most months, so don't expect large changes when I update the annual scoring race after lunch (here).

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had to work out Claremorris to figure out its actual value, previously I could go by the anomaly in the Summary, but I have no idea what value the anomaly was derived from, since there is no listed 1981-2010 normal value. My calculation shows 11.6 or 11.7 depending on rounding conventions for Claremorris and I had the other four stations from the monthly data section. Either value gives 11.0 overall.

The ECA&D has the Claremorris 1981-2010 average at 10.9c M.T so spot on. Edit: Just going by the daily data the May 2012 mean for Claremorris is 11.1c, or to break it down, 11.05c so borderline 11.0c.

http://eca.knmi.nl/indicesextremes/index.php

(Text sheet from the European Climate Assessment & Database attached)

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring table
__________________________________

Updated Annual scoring table
______________________

Rank .. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M .. A .. M ... Total ... Avg (rank)


1 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59 ... 261 ... 52.2 ... 1
2 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41 ... 259 ... 51.8 ... 2
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51 ... 256 ... 51.2 ... 3
4 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52 ... 250 ... 50.0 ... 4
5 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43 ... 248 ... 49.6 ... 5
6 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46 ... 240 ... 48.0 ... 6
7 .. Tae laidir .........41..44..31..62..57 ... 235 ... 47.0 ... 7
8 .. pauldry ............61..48..45..31..49 ... 234 ... 46.8 ... 8
9 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44 ... 222 ... 44.4 ... 9
9 ..jd ....................50..28..47..44..53 ... 222 ... 44.4 ... 9t
9 ..homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58 ... 222 ... 44.4 ... 9t
12 .waterways .......58..29..53..33..47 ... 220 ... 44.0 .. 12
13 .kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50 ... 219 ... 43.8 .. 13
14 .M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65 ... 216 ... 43.2 .. 14
15 .200motels ........56..69..18..31..40 ... 214 ... 42.8 .. 15

16 .Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48 ... 211 ... 42.2 .. 16

16 .okla .................57..21..31..44..51 ... 204 ... 40.8 .. 16
17. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59 ... 201 ... 40.2 .. 18
18 .traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47 ... 197 ... 39.4 .. 19
19 .delw ................57..57..15..25..39 ... 193 ... 38.6 .. 21
19 .mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40 ... 193 ... 38.6 .. 21
21 .K_1 .................40..25..71..22..33 ... 191 ... 38.2 .. 23
22 .Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66 ... 190 ... 38.0 .. 24
22 .MiNdGaM3 .........33..11..31..45..70 ... 190 ... 38.0 .. 24
24 .Hammer Archer ..52..41..22..35..39 ... 189 ... 37.5 .. 26
25 .Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51 ... 188 ... 37.6 .. 27
26 .Wild Bill ............48..29..32..27..51 ... 187 ... 37.4 .. 28
27 .SeaFields ..........33..15..57..44..36 ... 185 ... 37.0 .. 29
28 .dacogawa .........50..14..17..37..59 ... 177 ... 35.4 .. 31
29 .Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47 ... 176 ... 35.2 .. 33
30 .cherryghost .......56..51..11..12..44 ... 174 ... 34.8 .. 35
31 .dasa29 .............44..30..16..44..33 ... 167 ... 33.2 .. 37
32 .NIALL D ............29..20..28..44..42 ... 163 ... 32.6 .. 39
33 .snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51 ... 163 ... 32.6 .. 39
34 .danno ...............48..20..--..44..50 ... 162 ... 40.5 .. 17
35 .DOCARCH ..........20..27..32..40..41 ... 160 ... 32.0 .. 42
36 .redsunset ..........34..11..12..60..41 ... 158 ... 31.6 .. 43
37 .talkabout ..........42..26..20..05..58 ... 151 ... 30.2 .. 44
38 .Steopo .............53..20..44..24..-- ... 141 ... 35.3 .. 32
39 .Strasser ............--..20..52..38..29 ... 139 ... 34.8 .. 35
40 .Rebelbrowser .....--..14..36..38..44 ... 132 ... 33.0 .. 38
41 .Iancar29 ...........33..19..26..--..52 ... 130 ... 32.5 .. 41
42 .Gonzo ...............--..--..55..37..26 ... 118 ... 39.3 .. 20
43 .lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40 ... 111 ... 37.0 .. 29
44 .Deep Easterly .....--..38..22..45..-- ... 105 ... 35.0 .. 34

suspended from ranking, can be reinstated with future entries

xx .fizzycyst ..........47..37..--..--..-- ... 084 ... 42.0
xx .hellboy99 .........56..17..--..--..-- ... 073 ... 36.5
xx .alfa beta ..........--..34..34..--..-- ... 068 ... 34.0
____________________________________

This is how Iancar29 would be ranked if we counted his April score

30 .Iancar29 ...........33..19..26..45..52 ... 175 ... 35.0 .. 34


Rank for average (at end of each row) is your best comparison for the eventual contest standings, if you have missed any months. Entries are ranked for total score, which is our second award at end of year.

The leader pack shifted around and both of the May leaders, Mindgame and Joe Public, moved up together about ten positions closer to Con Sensus. I moved past Con Sensus and could be making my usual second half move to the lower end of respectability (whoopee!) ... :eek:

rameire

I demand a recount on all competitions so far this year,
cant believe I am not leading.

only joking MT,
knew it would be a bad month for me.

Once again, Thank you for the hard work you put into this MT, it is really appreciated.

Rob

Harps

nilhg back to the top and me languishing well below con sensus, normal service resumed

nilhg

Harps wrote: »

nilhg back to the top and me languishing well below con sensus, normal service resumed

I'm deffo buying a Lotto ticket this evening, after the way I got out of jail in this month's comp my luck must be in:D