Is the property market in Dublin on the up? Have we left it too late ?

riclad

Article in in independent ie,
business, says house prices in dublin seem s to have stablised ,not going down.
There,s usually old houses ,need renovation ,if you have cash ,you might get a quick sale.
Most people would not look at a house ,unless they might have a chance of buying it.

eringobragh

riclad wrote: »

Article in in independent ie,
business, says house prices in dublin seem s to have stablised ,not going down.
There,s usually old houses ,need renovation ,if you have cash ,you might get a quick sale.
Most people would not look at a house ,unless they might have a chance of buying it.

paper never refused ink mate...;)

Heard someone tell me the market has reached bottom...the amount of people that believe any tripe thats posted in the media here.

As always the usual consortium of EA's, Mortgage Brokers, Newspapers trying to flog a dead horse. :rolleyes:

irishguy

Zamboni wrote: »

Even with decent pay and bonuses, lack of credit will still hold the majority back.

Just because a guy is on over six figures does not mean he is a cash buyer - and in that case he is just as dependant on a mortgage like everybody else and just because he is on on over six figures doesn't mean that he has a deposit and /or a good credit history.
I deal with high earners on a daily basis. Their lack of financial management never ceases to amaze me.

Sure, there are folks out there who can buy with cash but they are either buying now, investing elsewhere or not interested (yet).

I agree it will hold the majority of the population back, but what I think we are talking about here seems to be certain houses in certain areas of Dublin mostly south dublin and the south city (possibly other parts of the country too). The people who are looking in these areas have good professional jobs and are mortgage approved, there is just a lack of certain property.

Now again this only represents a certain segment in the market and wont have a massive impact in national property price indexes.

golden lane

thev wise time to buy property....is when they are on the way up.....but a steady growth....

like same as inflation......but alsao when the economy is stable or growing......

if you buy when they are going down,,,,,you may be left with negative equity, which is a disaster if you lose your income, or some of it.......

if it is rising steady.....and you have to sell.....your debt is covered........and no grey hair or broken relationships.......

The_Conductor

Guys- we need a dose of reality here.
The 'stabilisation' in prices is in limited areas, and limited to certain property types (namely freehold family homes with gardens).

Apartment prices are still falling (pretty much everywhere- but at a faster rate outside of Dublin)- we have massive over supply of apartments- even in D4/D6 in Dublin- but a shortage of family homes.....

The article is latching on 'family home prices stabilise and rise in some areas'- which is simple economics 101- law of supply and demand. We haven't built family homes in desireable areas for almost 20 years- which is what people want- whereas we've an abundance of apartments- which people don't want, unless they can't get anything else........

So- family homes aren't falling in desireable areas, or the pace of falls has decelerated, simple pyschology and economics- more a 'no sh1t Sherlock', than anything else.......

riclad

Most apartments are too small for familys, so some areas,in dublin have limited amount of 3bed houses.SO for a couple,its simpler to buy a house, skip living in apartment stage. I still see apartments going down in price in most areas.
AS article says, theres still a large oversupply outside dublin.IN most areas prices went down,40- 50 per cent.

jmayo

Zipppy wrote: »

Reports seems to indicate that property is on the up in certain Dublin areas; Minister Noonan `has said that family homes in good areas in Dublin are in short supply and viewings are now attracting 20+ couples with bidding wars ongoing...

Unfortunately I agree with this..we've looked a few 'period' style houses close to city centre and there are many couples viewing and several bidding on each with many going over asking price.

We can afford them but only just and if they go up much we're done for ..

We're getting concerned now that we've 'missed the boat' for these houses..we've been renting and waiting a while to buy, decided @ Christmas it was time and now we're getting that sinking feeling..

Opinions?

The only boat you missed was the proverbial Titanic.

eringobragh wrote: »

paper never refused ink mate...;)

Heard someone tell me the market has reached bottom...the amount of people that believe any tripe thats posted in the media here.

As always the usual consortium of EA's, Mortgage Brokers, Newspapers trying to flog a dead horse. :rolleyes:

Nah it is a dead cat and if they flog it enough it might bounce a little. :rolleyes:

riclad

Look on gwd ie ,theres plenty of period homes going from 150k on up.You haven,t missed the boat,terraced houses ,with small yard ,tend to be cheaper.

mari2222

Rory1 wrote: »

Interesting idea. I wonder if that really is a factor. I don't think anyone who hasn't bought should be afraid it's been left too late, we still have a long way to go IMO. No reason why Ireland couldn't be another Japan with 20 years of falling prices.

Yesterday's paper actually reported that 8000 people left with average lump sum of 87,000 (total c.700 million) - these people are mostly in their fifties,( i.e. mortgage-free/children in their twenties etc), so even if 10% of them decided to buy a property that is 800 sales which is a big number, and injection of 70m into housing.

Admit I don't know if ten per cent is realistic, but their alternatives are to put their money in banks (!) or buy shares (!!) .........

So it seems very likely that house prices will have a slight rise for the present?

The_Conductor

mari2222 wrote: »

Yesterday's paper actually reported that 8000 people left with average lump sum of 87,000 (total c.700 million) - these people are mostly in their fifties,( i.e. mortgage-free/children in their twenties etc), so even if 10% of them decided to buy a property that is 800 sales which is a big number, and injection of 70m into housing.

Admit I don't know if ten per cent is realistic, but their alternatives are to put their money in banks (!) or buy shares (!!) .........

So it seems very likely that house prices will have a slight rise for the present?

Hi Mari-

The lumpsums are probably skewed by a larger group of people in the late 50s early 60s- who would have had the vast bulk of the service necessary to qualify for most of a pension.

Even presuming 10% of the gross amount went into the property market- which I would be very surprised if it were the case- this is still only 70m- in a sector with outstanding mortgages in excess of 70 billion- aka a factor of a thousand times greater. While 70m isn't to be sniffed at- in the greater scale of things- its really a minute drop in the ocean.

Add into this equation- most of these people will not qualify for mortgages (on age grounds)- and an average of 87k begins to look a lot less like a property investment- and more probably like- consolidation/paying off of existing debt........ Sure- you can get a 1 bed apartment, even fairly centrally in Dublin for this sort of money- but how many newly retired people are going to want the headache of being landlords for the first time (very few I assume).

I genuinely don't think that the public sector retirements are going to have any measurable effect on the property market- with the possible exception of a cadre who decide to up sticks and move somewhere with more clement weather- and who may add property onto the market (as either rentals or sales).

Its not even a case that time will tell- the numbers are so small when viewed as a segment of the market as to be imperceptible.

I really think its a case of wishful thinking.......

Zamboni

smccarrick wrote: »

Hi Mari-

The lumpsums are probably skewed by a larger group of people in the late 50s early 60s- who would have had the vast bulk of the service necessary to qualify for most of a pension.

Even presuming 10% of the gross amount went into the property market- which I would be very surprised if it were the case- this is still only 70m- in a sector with outstanding mortgages in excess of 70 billion- aka a factor of a thousand times greater. While 70m isn't to be sniffed at- in the greater scale of things- its really a minute drop in the ocean.

Add into this equation- most of these people will not qualify for mortgages (on age grounds)- and an average of 87k begins to look a lot less like a property investment- and more probably like- consolidation/paying off of existing debt........ Sure- you can get a 1 bed apartment, even fairly centrally in Dublin for this sort of money- but how many newly retired people are going to want the headache of being landlords for the first time (very few I assume).

I genuinely don't think that the public sector retirements are going to have any measurable effect on the property market- with the possible exception of a cadre who decide to up sticks and move somewhere with more clement weather- and who may add property onto the market (as either rentals or sales).

Its not even a case that time will tell- the numbers are so small when viewed as a segment of the market as to be imperceptible.

I really think its a case of wishful thinking.......

I'd agree with this.
I can actually see this particular group renovating their own houses with their lump sum to accomodate their old age needs. Downstairs toilets/bedrooms, insulation, handrails, bathrooms etc.

kennyb3

I ve said it again but i ll repeat;

THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STABILISATION

be it small pockets, certain houses etc. We have had one 0.7% rise in the CSO statistics in the course of 5 years. The level of transactions is so low that the statistics can easily be skewed from month to month. When there is 2 quarters of stabilisation - fair enough its worth taking about, but guess what there wont be! The budget will be on the agenda post summer and confidence will rapidly diminish.

mari2222

smccarrick wrote: »

Hi Mari-

The lumpsums are probably skewed by a larger group of people in the late 50s early 60s- who would have had the vast bulk of the service necessary to qualify for most of a pension.

Even presuming 10% of the gross amount went into the property market- which I would be very surprised if it were the case- this is still only 70m- in a sector with outstanding mortgages in excess of 70 billion- aka a factor of a thousand times greater. While 70m isn't to be sniffed at- in the greater scale of things- its really a minute drop in the ocean.

Add into this equation- most of these people will not qualify for mortgages (on age grounds)- and an average of 87k begins to look a lot less like a property investment- and more probably like- consolidation/paying off of existing debt........ Sure- you can get a 1 bed apartment, even fairly centrally in Dublin for this sort of money- but how many newly retired people are going to want the headache of being landlords for the first time (very few I assume).

I genuinely don't think that the public sector retirements are going to have any measurable effect on the property market- with the possible exception of a cadre who decide to up sticks and move somewhere with more clement weather- and who may add property onto the market (as either rentals or sales).

Its not even a case that time will tell- the numbers are so small when viewed as a segment of the market as to be imperceptible.

I really think its a case of wishful thinking.......

I think the recent "rise/stabilisation" is partly due to the lump sums. People over 50 probably have savings, no mortgages and "children" needing their own place. If this is not part of the cause, then what is?. I don't see anything in the economic fundamentals to justify price rises. Where is the wishful thinking you allude to?

christmas2012

there talking property prices up again?wheres the money from the people?after household taxes,rubbish and water there will be no cash flow left,not to mention it to be so difficult right now to get a loan off the banks..

i could guarantee you if prices start to rise dramactically again due to overpaid speculators,and auctioneers,that nobody will be buying ..

indiewindy

christmas2012 wrote: »

there talking property prices up again?wheres the money from the people?after household taxes,rubbish and water there will be no cash flow left,not to mention it to be so difficult right now to get a loan off the banks..

i could guarantee you if prices start to rise dramactically again due to overpaid speculators,and auctioneers,that nobody will be buying ..

Its worrying allright, do the people trying to talk up the market not realise the massive damage to the economy and peoples lives that they helped cause over the past few years. You really have to question the agendas of those engaging in this reckless behaviour

StillWaters

christmas2012 wrote: »

i could guarantee you if prices start to rise dramactically again due to overpaid speculators,and auctioneers,that nobody will be buying ..

If Selling prices rise dramatically again, I guarantee you it's because people ARE buying.

thewing

Folks - nothing to see here. Sample size is so low that swings in either direction are hard to quantify. Houses fell by 4.7% in Dublin in January according to CSO stats - during what is considered a traditional lull in the property market, boom or bust.

Take a deep breath and look at the annual drop - 16.5% (I think). That's the only figure you need concern yourself with. The drop rate might have decreased by this time next year, but to what? 10% - that's still 40 or 50k of a house that's current asking 4-500,000...

No matter what the indo, the Central Bank, Estate Agents, Brokers, tell you, our property market is heading in one direction - down. I would see it lasting at least another 2-3 years and then? Prices to match inflation - annual rises of 2.2%. So sit back, relax, and just keep saving......

pburns

IMO there was a situation over a year ago where the banks went from giving out NOTHING to giving mortgages to the very few when properties were definitely being sold faster. I'm not sure you'll find it in any statistics, I remember it being described on some forums as a 'dead cat bounce'. I hate that term but sure enough it was a temporary thing.

I think the overall trend will be slowly downwards or levelling off for a few years but there will definitely be periods of activity as in any trade. Like livestock or farming - even in the bad times when prices were falling there were blips due to external factors.

Mr. Loverman

Surely people have learned by now to disbelieve anything a politician says about house prices?

WTF it's past embarrassing at this stage.

It just goes to show how easy it is to control the masses - most people want to believe a) their leaders are honest people and b) their leaders know what's best for them.

It makes my head hurt.

Mr.Wemmick

It's propaganda pure and simple.. and it's being put out there just for a short term gain: the correct vote wanted by the frantic Government in a few weeks.

Let's cheer them up, get them to do what we want and spit them out, again - same old, same old..

It's very insulting to read this nonsense. You really do begin to wonder at the intelligence behind it

riclad

There,s still alot of people working ,earning good wages in dublin,theres a good rental market .I dont think its propaganda ,talking up the market to say at some point in good areas,good houses,houses with 3bedrooms,garden,parking space, the price,values will stabilise ,or stop falling.IT might be like london vs north of england, alot of corporations,big companys invest here ,because its the biggest city,has a good airport ,good telecom network etc
And some people might say,i,d prefer to buy a house than buy an apartment,that might have issues in the future,eg some management companys are finding it hard to collect service charges, or too many apartments are empty ,which makes it more difficult to fund proper maintenance.IF you think prices will continue to fall than wait,in 5 years time you might be able to buy a house for 30k.

Sappa

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice ya da ya da.
It's complete point scoring by the govt to get this vote passed and people feeling optimistic.
Never believe what the clown school in the dail tells you,they haven't a clue either.
There will be no recovery in the housing Market for many many years.

cursai

I hate when people say 'rent is dead money Sure your still living in a house.

The_Conductor

riclad wrote: »

There,s still alot of people working ,earning good wages in dublin,theres a good rental market .

Yes, there are still many people working in Dublin on good wages. This doesn't have a lot to do with the rental market however- as the vast bulk of these people have mortgages and are in their own property- if you look at the demographics of people renting in Dublin, the largest group are students, followed closely by various classes of social welfare recipients- the number of people in good jobs, earning good wages, who are renting- is very much a minority.

riclad wrote: »

I dont think its propaganda ,talking up the market to say at some point in good areas,good houses,houses with 3bedrooms,garden,parking space, the price,values will stabilise ,or stop falling.

The reason that prices for houses has stabilised in some areas- is simple economics 101- supply and demand. We haven't built many houses in the Dublin area in the last 20 years- we built about 160k apartments and dwellings in managed complexes. The number of freehold houses built since 1994 is minimal. Yet- its the property type that most people aspire to. So- very limited supply meets a limited, but growing, number of people, willing to purchase at today's prices- equals a stabilisation of prices. The inverse of this is these people by their actions are causing further decline in less desireable property types or areas.

riclad wrote: »

IT might be like london vs north of england, alot of corporations,big companys invest here ,because its the biggest city,has a good airport ,good telecom network etc

Yes, Dublin is our biggest city- however in International terms its a minnow. Also- we have actually used the national spatial strategy in some respects- look at our IT hub in Galway, medical devices in Mayo, Pharmaceutical industries in Cork etc- we have not focused out development on Dublin by any means. With respect of our Airport in Dublin- for about the first time ever we have a reasonable airport- shame about transport links to and from it- and unfortunately if you think we have a good telecoms network in Ireland- you're on a different planet from the one I'm on- our telecoms are worse than many third world countries.

riclad wrote: »

And some people might say,i,d prefer to buy a house than buy an apartment,that might have issues in the future,eg some management companys are finding it hard to collect service charges, or too many apartments are empty ,which makes it more difficult to fund proper maintenance.

Some people might prefer a house to an apartment- substitute this with 'most people'- in a significant majority of cases, apartments were seen as a stepping stone towards buying a house, and now have people 'trapped' in them.

riclad wrote: »

IF you think prices will continue to fall than wait,in 5 years time you might be able to buy a house for 30k.

In 5 years time you reckon you'll buy a house for 30K? You can buy houses for 30k now- but not in locations that anyone actually wants to live in. I dare say it'll be the same in 5 years time.

riclad

ON average theres a better range of broadband services in dublin ,than other areas ,its not perfect ,it could be a lot better.
IN some countrys ,eg australia you might get 20meg per sec,speed but the download caps are small,eg ten.20gig per month.
One of the mistakes fianna fail left is sell off eircom, which became laden with debt,after being bought and sold 2 or 3 times.
Thats not a good way of ensuring long term investment in a
national broadband network .
WE have along way to go if we wanna catch up with countrys like south korea.

true

smccarrick wrote: »

Yes, there are still many people working in Dublin on good wages.

but with rising austerity in future budgets, tax increases, more property taxes, interest rate rises ( they are at historic all time low now), end of croke park agreement, closure of the budget defecit, possible leaving of the euro etc...house prices still have a lot to drop.

It sickens me to see vested interests eg Auctioneers never telling people the truth. They KNOW it is going to drop more but will not say so, because who is going to buy a house now if its going to be 10 or 30% cheaper in a year or two ( when there are food riots on the street etc);)

Mr. Loverman

I live in China. Only the top x% are allowed vote. The basic idea is only the "best" people should vote.

Based on Ireland's absolute mongo attitude to property I am starting to think the Chinese are onto something.

/Sort of joking

Caseywhale

Houses down the country are not going anywhere for a long time.
My brother just bought a lovely little cottage house for 29k in Clare. He is a builder and has nothing better to do and reckons he can do it up for 15k. I'll give that to him and then we'll use it as a holiday home between us.

Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow are the only places where there might be a recovery. Might as well just knock down all the apartments and ghost estate houses in the rest of the country. Now fuel prices will have a huge bearing on where you buy your house.

Mr.Wemmick

"Recovery" is a word we should ban from our vocabularies, to be honest

What we should be looking for first, or hoping for, is a rebalance of all the variables involved which are throwing us and the domestic economy into despair. Once the Government have stripped bare all the monies they possibly can via new taxes, rates etc. and these new taxes become fixed, and the interest rate rises don't depress us further, we should start to flatline.. Once we stabilize, we can we start to hope and look for the first signs of improvement.

As a domestic economy we are still shrinking, we might stop to draw breath now and again, this year or next, but we will continue to shrink for quite a while yet, methinks.

Talking up the price of property in the storm of an ongoing downturn and a domestic economic recession, it just beyond ridiculous and will only hurt the economy more in the long run. It is irresponsible coming from politicians and CB officials when they should be more honest and realistic when dealing with the Irish public. It would help their cause better but then when have politicians ever done the right thing at the right time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing..

jmayo

pburns wrote: »

IMO there was a situation over a year ago where the banks went from giving out NOTHING to giving mortgages to the very few when properties were definitely being sold faster. I'm not sure you'll find it in any statistics, I remember it being described on some forums as a 'dead cat bounce'. I hate that term but sure enough it was a temporary thing.

I think the overall trend will be slowly downwards or levelling off for a few years but there will definitely be periods of activity as in any trade. Like livestock or farming - even in the bad times when prices were falling there were blips due to external factors.

Interesting the you bring in the point about livestock.
With livestock a farmer has to offload them, even in the case of such thinhs as milk cows who are on the farm most of their lives to produce milk.
Farmers usually have more livestock than they can possibly ever eat and everyday they are with him they are costing him money, and that is often money that he needs to repay his borrowings from the banks.

Now the weird thing with our housing market is that there is no real pressure being put to bear on people from the very same banks.
The banks are not foreclosing on people, they aren't pressuring people to offload the assets and try and repay some of the debts.
Part of this is that the government decided for political reasons to force some of the major banks which had received state handouts to not foreclose on voters, sorry mortgage holders, who were in serious arrears.
Another issue is that even if the banks (including non Irish banks) do go for foreclosure it is a messy timeconsuming affair and by the end of it the bank will get shag all for the property.
We are in a limbo situation where both the government/state institutions and banks hope some miracle will occurr to kick start another bubble of sorts to make the mess go away.

smccarrick wrote: »

Yes, Dublin is our biggest city- however in International terms its a minnow. Also- we have actually used the national spatial strategy in some respects- look at our IT hub in Galway, medical devices in Mayo, Pharmaceutical industries in Cork etc- we have not focused out development on Dublin by any means. With respect of our Airport in Dublin- for about the first time ever we have a reasonable airport- shame about transport links to and from it- and unfortunately if you think we have a good telecoms network in Ireland- you're on a different planet from the one I'm on- our telecoms are worse than many third world countries.

smccarrick thank you for addressing this in particular.
Even within the city limits and not to mention within 15/20 miles of the city centre I can assure you the telecoms infrastructure and availability of high speed internet is a complete joke.

I think that ascertion by the poster just goes to show their total lack of a grasp of the facts of life in Dublin.

smccarrick wrote: »

In 5 years time you reckon you'll buy a house for 30K? You can buy houses for 30k now- but not in locations that anyone actually wants to live in. I dare say it'll be the same in 5 years time.

I''l get you one now if you want.

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I live in China. Only the top x% are allowed vote. The basic idea is only the "best" people should vote.

Based on Ireland's absolute mongo attitude to property I am starting to think the Chinese are onto something.

/Sort of joking

I have often thought the same about allowing people to procreate.
See recent example of gentleman in Limerick as prime example.