Is the property market in Dublin on the up? Have we left it too late ?

Solair

Not to be a conspiracy theorist but, did anyone consider the possibility that not all viewers at a viewing are serious buyers and that an estate agent could possibly have fake viewers eg friends / family or even paid PR people to add hype to an open viewing.

I wouldn't put anything past these guys they are desperate to create media and online hype.

thewing

Solair wrote: »

Not to be a conspiracy theorist but, did anyone consider the possibility that not all viewers at a viewing are serious buyers and that an estate agent could possibly have fake viewers eg friends / family or even paid PR people to add hype to an open viewing.

I wouldn't put anything past these guys they are desperate to create media and online hype.

Whilst I wouldn't got to the extremes of saying EA's are hiring actors to walk around at viewings, I would say I know of plenty couples who having built 'tyre-kicking' on houses in to the their weekend routine. No finance in place and no intention to buy anytime soon, but just doing their homework for when they feel the bottom as arrived....

Sappa

thewing wrote: »

Solair wrote: »

Not to be a conspiracy theorist but, did anyone consider the possibility that not all viewers at a viewing are serious buyers and that an estate agent could possibly have fake viewers eg friends / family or even paid PR people to add hype to an open viewing.

I wouldn't put anything past these guys they are desperate to create media and online hype.

Whilst I wouldn't got to the extremes of saying EA's are hiring actors to walk around at viewings, I would say I know of plenty couples who having built 'tyre-kicking' on houses in to the their weekend routine. No finance in place and no intention to buy anytime soon, but just doing their homework for when they feel the bottom as arrived....

They must have nothing better to do unfortunately,a friend of mine is an estate agent and they are continually pumping the local rag Auction today,Sold,Sold.
He's a slippery eal and I wouldn't take a word of his advice on property as beckons many EA are screwed themselves and need cash pronto.

cursai

Looking to buy at the mo. I always spend time talking to the local or neighbours. is amazing the info you'll find out. Estate agents are just doing their job, its not a pastime for them, its their bread and butter so i dont begrudge the sales pitches and the exaggerations. But anybody whos buying should investigate the local area. One one house found out that the house had been built for the first half by the seller himself and then and to call in builders to clean up the mess he had made and finish the rest. house hads cracks in the side walls up in the attic. would never have known this until a helpful neighbour told me the craic.
I always try to talk to the exact owners personally.
Most people presume they need an estate agent to sell the house and are mostly happy to deal directly if the potential buyer is sound.

jmayo

Call me a cynical old bast***, but I never trust sales people who are trying to sell me something especially when worth many thousands.
The ultimate and only real aim of sales staff is to sell you something in order to gain a commission and for a great majority if they have to bend the truth or more usually omit certain facts they will do it.
They want you to trust them and think of them as a family friend.
Treat everything they say with some scepticism.

It may be different when sales staff are thinking of you as repeat business, but as in the case of cars they may never do business with you for years if ever again.

true

jmayo wrote: »

Call me a cynical old bast***, but I never trust sales people who are trying to sell me something especially when worth many thousands.

+1.....certainly I have dealt with many estate agents and most of them would say or do anything to get a sale. Very unscrupulous people. If my daughter ever told me she was going out with an estate agent I would disown her.

As regards property prices, I see Paddy Power think there is going to be a considerable drop in property prices this year. See page 5 of yesterdays Business section of the Sunday Independent. They usually have a knack of getting things like that right better than the estate agents. If the estate agents really believe prices will not fall considerably this year, they should put their money with Paddy Power and make a killing.

Zipppy

Well ... Update

Two weeks of bidding have now pushed price over asking price.....

We are Now debating next move.......

Certainly seems my initial question is proving correct.....we may well have missed the boat,,, unless we keep bidding tomorrow........

irishguy

Zipppy wrote: »

Well ... Update

Two weeks of bidding have now pushed price over asking price.....

We are Now debating next move.......

Certainly seems my initial question is proving correct.....we may well have missed the boat,,, unless we keep bidding tomorrow........

You may have missed this house, but there will be others. You will have to wait a bit for it though and you may have to pay a bit more, but I wouldnt expect all houses to start increasing double digits any time soon.

Main thing is dont panic.

Duckjob

irishguy wrote: »

Main thing is dont panic.

^^This

The property you saw was likely priced on the low side of the market level, and so had potential to get buyers bidding against each other on it. EAs do this a lot IME where they have agreement from the vendor to set the initial price low.

Properties that are priced correctly. (ie. at their market clearing level or lower) are selling, as they always have done, and as they always will.

kennyb3

Zipppy wrote: »

we may well have missed the boat,,, unless we keep bidding tomorrow........

Is the boat the new ladder? Seriously what bloody boat! It's one property, walk away and move onto the next one if its gone beyond what you wanted to pay for it.

pburns

You're not an EA-in-disguise are you?

It's this sort of panic-mongoring that got us into trouble in the first place. I've seen this happen loads of times, even over the last couple of years. Sometimes a property is priced low, sometimes it takes only one of the bidders to panic and push up the price.

riclad

look at other similar propertys, most areas have plenty of houses for sale.
Dont pay more than you can afford.

Zipppy

pburns wrote: »

You're not an EA-in-disguise are you?

It's this sort of panic-mongoring that got us into trouble in the first place. I've seen this happen loads of times, even over the last couple of years. Sometimes a property is priced low, sometimes it takes only one of the bidders to panic and push up the price.

riclad wrote: »

look at other similar propertys, most areas have plenty of houses for sale.
Dont pay more than you can afford.

HaHa certainly not an EA,....just bringing a bit of realism into the debate..

As for looking at other similar properties...there are none......this would appear to be my problem.

Zamboni

Zipppy wrote: »

HaHa certainly not an EA,....just bringing a bit of realism into the debate..

As for looking at other similar properties...there are none......this would appear to be my problem.

What's the rush anyway?

pburns

Zipppy wrote: »

HaHa certainly not an EA,....just bringing a bit of realism into the debate..

As for looking at other similar properties...there are none......this would appear to be my problem.

You're looking for
1. a 'period' houses
2. near the city centre

Unlike many apts or some houses, houses near city centres are always going to be in some demand. There are a lot of young families outgrowing the apts and townhouses they bought a few years ago.

What I don't get is you say these houses are borderline affordable for you and yet you come onto a public forum perpetuating the idea that prices for the exact type/location of property you are after is 'on the up'!

So if you're not a EA or a seller, you're potentially contributing your bit to hyping up prices for this type of property...against yourself! Even the thread title and language you use seem quite incendary.
I started off suspicious...now I'm just confused

Lantus

The EU is about to enter a phase of extreme uncertainty fuelled by Greece. Italy is into recession, Spain is same. France has flatlined.

Devaluation is going to become a reality if we want to get things going again. In a massive ponzi scheme like western economies you have to reset the mechanism to give the illusion of growth. Recessions are essential as infinite growth is a falsehood.

So in that regard dont worry prices will drop even further.

Solair

It's quite difficult to know what's going to happen in the Eurozone over the next few months, but it's certainly not looking good.

I think there's going to be a huge shock coming through from the Spanish banks over the next few weeks to months. The small Spanish banks (cajas) which make up a huge % of the Spanish domestic mortgage / developer mortgage market are very exposed to bad loans and seem to be morphing into a hundred Anglo Irish Banks.

So far, Bankia, which was only formed in 2010 as a merger of Caja Madrid, Bancaja and 5 smaller cajas is facing nationalisation and huge bale-outs.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/09/spain-bankia-market-turmoil

There were several other major mergers, aimed at reducing the numbers of cajas, but it is looking like there are huge losses in system, similar to what happened here when the party stopped at Anglo, the lights turned on, and it revealed a hell of an ugly mess.

The Spanish banking system hasn't come clean quite as quickly as the Irish one did, perhaps because it's massively more complex with nearly a hundred banks involved, but also because I think there was even more denial in Madrid than there was in Dublin.

The unemployment rate in Spain is a whopping 24.1%, that's higher than Greece. Also, bear in mind that Spain has programmes similar to Ireland's FÁS stuff, and people are returning to education, training etc so in reality those figures are probably WORSE than the official figure. 1.43 million Spanish households have NOBODY working in them at all anymore (and that can include households with adult kids)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17866382

Then, you've got the Greek situation which is not looking like it's going to end without a major financial system shock.

Then, Portugal, Italy, maybe Belgium, France

All I'd say is things aren't looking stable or particularly rosy.

This Eurozone and general Western debt crisis may yet go into phase II.

I strongly suspect that any minor hype in the Dublin property market is a false dawn.

Zipppy

Zamboni wrote: »

What's the rush anyway?

The rush is the context of and motivation behind the thread....

It's becoming apparent that houses in certain areas and with 'nothing wrong' are moving up in price, attracting many viewers and a bidding war on them pushing prices up..
Therefore the next house to go up in that area is priced higher and upward spiral continues...

hence my question..have we missed the boat?
If we have x to spend and prices in the areas we like are now heading to x++ then we're fcuked..

So it would appear that we have indeed 'left it too late' ..

either we panic buy now or sit tight and watch prices go up.....unless we buy the outer suburbs which we don't wish to...

Zamboni

Zipppy wrote: »

The rush is the context of and motivation behind the thread....

It's becoming apparent that houses in certain areas and with 'nothing wrong' are moving up in price, attracting many viewers and a bidding war on them pushing prices up..
Therefore the next house to go up in that area is priced higher and upward spiral continues...

hence my question..have we missed the boat?
If we have x to spend and prices in the areas we like are now heading to x++ then we're fcuked..

So it would appear that we have indeed 'left it too late' ..

either we panic buy now or sit tight and watch prices go up.....unless we buy the outer suburbs which we don't wish to...

You are only looking at the short term at a specific asset type in a secific market.
Stay liquid.

kennyb3

Solair & Lantus points are well made - I expect an exodus of money on deposit from Irish banks into Germany, Holland etc much like in Q4 of 2011 (for those that havent already done so as the shi't is hitting the fan now). That will take a lot of the higher end buyers out of the market for a while at least.

Some will argue that people will look to physical assets - but i can't see it myself given these assets are overvalued in the context of what's going on right now.

With the level of uncertainty at the moment I think people would be mad not to wait 6 months and see where we are at then.

kennyb3

Zipppy wrote: »

The rush is the context of and motivation behind the thread....

It's becoming apparent that houses in certain areas and with 'nothing wrong' are moving up in price, attracting many viewers and a bidding war on them pushing prices up..
Therefore the next house to go up in that area is priced higher and upward spiral continues...

hence my question..have we missed the boat?
If we have x to spend and prices in the areas we like are now heading to x++ then we're fcuked..

So it would appear that we have indeed 'left it too late' ..

either we panic buy now or sit tight and watch prices go up.....unless we buy the outer suburbs which we don't wish to...

Seriously - get a bloody grip! Its not 2005 or 2006. Please take off the blinkers and open your eyes to the real world.

daltonmd

Zipppy wrote: »

The rush is the context of and motivation behind the thread....

It's becoming apparent that houses in certain areas and with 'nothing wrong' are moving up in price, attracting many viewers and a bidding war on them pushing prices up..
Therefore the next house to go up in that area is priced higher and upward spiral continues...

hence my question..have we missed the boat?
If we have x to spend and prices in the areas we like are now heading to x++ then we're fcuked..

So it would appear that we have indeed 'left it too late' ..

either we panic buy now or sit tight and watch prices go up.....unless we buy the outer suburbs which we don't wish to...

It's kinda funny looking at this post - no offence Zippy, but it's because people are panic buying and not thinking rationally that this situation is happening.

The media are playing a blinder -the government have their hand in there as well - think of what happened in the UK a few weeks ago when a minster urged people to "fill up fuel tanks" http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/mar/30/francis-maude-petrol-panic-strike.

What happened? Well demand for fuel rocketed as did prices. This is exactly what is happening - government says "we have a shortage of beans" - demand for beans grows so does price.

The real litmus test is should you try and sell your home in a couple of years - whether you get above the price you paid for it.

Do your homework, strees for highest interest rate and lowest income, stress for your worst case scenario over 5 years - if you can still repay your mortgage then that is what you should focus on.

You will never catch the bottom - you will only see it months later - one price rise after how many quarters of falling, more than 16, does not a recovery make. 6 months is a fair indicator, 12 - 18 months a better one.

Zipppy

kennyb3 wrote: »

Seriously - get a bloody grip! Its not 2005 or 2006. Please take off the blinkers and open your eyes to the real world.

To put this in context..

I sold my last house in 2007 (height of the boom) and have rented since..and watched property prices tubmle ever since (with an satisfied smug grin on my face .:rolleyes:.)
I decided last year that we'd had enough of renting and moving about so we'd buy in early 2012 and 'settle down'

I do think that many properties are still overpriced, we have a few bad budgets coming to rape people of more money, we're still in a big hole (country wise)

however...

There are many couples, such as ourselves, who are ok moneywise and want a home...sooner rather than later..
However cos prices are on the floor, people wont sell, hence there is feck all coming on the market for sale
this is increasing demand in certain good areas..and with it lots of viewers, lots of bidders and prices going up..

Hopefully you are correct and it is only temporary ...

Lantus

We must realise that there will be 'micro pockets' of economic activity in all sectors at any time, boom or bust. A very small number of people taking advantage of a depressed market who have the cash to invest in a certain area does not represent an overall property market.

Greece is probably about to become the biggest humanitarian disaster in living history as economic decline damages food markets to the point where food aid will become required. This will be coupled with a mass exodus from Greece by the 'able bodied' to nearby countries just to survive. Germany and France will move it's armies to its borders to prevent mass exodus into them. Other smaller countries may do the same. Greece will enter a state of effective marshall law run by either an EU or UN body with a military support mechanism. The failure of greek politics to resolve their own issues will reinforce this decision which will be done under the banner of stability and preventing contagion.

At this point the price of housing will become a farce in any country as Europe struggles to feed it's citizens, and I'm not just talking about Greece. The problem with food is that it takes 12+months to grow. By the time we all realise we are hungry it will be too late.....

For those who think the government will feed you it will be ok I will just say dont worry the government will solve the financial crisis it wil be ok. (and the titanic is toooooo big to sink.)

kennyb3

@ zippy, I do get what you are saying and I know exactly what you are talking about but seriously re-read your own last post - its pure panic stuff like back in the bad old days.

Show patience and nerve. Properties will crop up again - just be patient. Don't get into a crazy bidding war and overpay. set a cap and stick to it.

Anyway you know all this from the sounds of it but I think you need to take a step back and look and listen to yourself - you've got emotions involved and caught up in it.

Prices went up in one quarter out of 5 years by 0.7% and there is nothing to say this wont reverse next quarter.

How many houses have you bid on?

Zipppy

kennyb3 wrote: »

Anyway you know all this from the sounds of it but I think you need to take a step back and look and listen to yourself - you've got emotions involved and caught up in it.

The reason for this?

A human of the non male gender :mad:

gurramok

Zipppy wrote: »

There are many couples, such as ourselves, who are ok moneywise and want a home...sooner rather than later..

You're in a tiny tiny minority of potential buyers who had the foresight(lucky or not) to do what you did.

Zipppy wrote: »

I do think that many properties are still overpriced, we have a few bad budgets coming to rape people of more money, we're still in a big hole (country wise)

however...

However cos prices are on the floor, people wont sell, hence there is feck all coming on the market for sale

Contradictory here. You say prices are on the floor yet foresee a few tight budgets(more austerity), those who won't sell are stuck in fantasyland. They will never get a good price for their properties again for many many years.

Prices are not on the floor yet in this bankrupt country. Wait until real economic recovery happens post austerity and then we just might see prices stabilising on the floor.

The_Conductor

pburns wrote: »

You're looking for
1. a 'period' houses
2. near the city centre

Unlike many apts or some houses, houses near city centres are always going to be in some demand. There are a lot of young families outgrowing the apts and townhouses they bought a few years ago.

What I don't get is you say these houses are borderline affordable for you and yet you come onto a public forum perpetuating the idea that prices for the exact type/location of property you are after is 'on the up'!

So if you're not a EA or a seller, you're potentially contributing your bit to hyping up prices for this type of property...against yourself! Even the thread title and language you use seem quite incendary.
I started off suspicious...now I'm just confused

I'd echo what PBurns has said here.
Certain property types will always have an inherent demand associated with them- namely freehold family homes with gardens in nice areas. While you may have a small number of people interested in any property of this nature at the moment- it would be an equally valid observation that were there an apartment block around the corner- it would likely have precisely zero interest.

We built very very few family homes since 1995- we build a few hundred thousand apartments instead. These were sold to folk as 'starter homes' and they were allowed believe it was 'getting their foot on the property ladder' and they would trade up to said family home down the road sometime. Well- given that we never built any more of these family homes- even when people could afford them- you see the catch 22.

The family home segment of the market- is in constraint- its about the only segment where there is a lack of availability- and some areas have significantly worse supply than others.

OP- other properties will come along- however if you are too focused on getting a particular property type- to the exclusion of the vast majority of property on the market- you are going to be chasing limited supply. It doesn't mean there is a recovery in the market- frankly there isn't- and if anything its going to get significantly worse before it gets any better- just that you are chasing a very scarce commodity type- that is desireable to a very select few.

Have you left it too late? Too late for what? You were always going to have to fight for a nice family home in the Dublin area. An apartment- or even a large townhouse, on the other hand- is an entirely different proposition. NAMA have thousands of units even in Dublin 4 (thankyou Bernard McNamara)- but they're not ye good old family home.........

jmayo

Zipppy wrote: »

...
It's becoming apparent that houses in certain areas and with 'nothing wrong' are moving up in price, attracting many viewers and a bidding war on them pushing prices up..
Therefore the next house to go up in that area is priced higher and upward spiral continues...

What are you on ?
Please re read your last sentence ?
There aint going to be any spiralling house prices, not when you factor in the future economic outlook of the country and indeed the future of our currency.

If anyhting I would say get a fooking grip.
Oh and stop reading and listening to the vested interests.

Zipppy wrote: »

hence my question..have we missed the boat?
If we have x to spend and prices in the areas we like are now heading to x++ then we're fcuked..

So it would appear that we have indeed 'left it too late' ..

As I said before to someone the only boat you have missed is the proverbial Titanic.

Just wait until all those buy to lets, all those landlords dependent on rent allowance schemes, all those scraping by on low interest rates and all those not being foreclosed on are finally forced to meet reality.

Zipppy wrote: »

either we panic buy now or sit tight and watch prices go up.....unless we buy the outer suburbs which we don't wish to...

So prices are going to go up despite increased property taxes, introduction of water rates, continually shaky currency, high unemployment, lack of lending, more foreclosures, decreasing rents due to government cutbacks ?

Zipppy wrote: »

To put this in context..

I sold my last house in 2007 (height of the boom) and have rented since..and watched property prices tubmle ever since (with an satisfied smug grin on my face .:rolleyes:.)
I decided last year that we'd had enough of renting and moving about so we'd buy in early 2012 and 'settle down'

So did I become WE and it is becoming time to nest ?

Zipppy wrote: »

I do think that many properties are still overpriced, we have a few bad budgets coming to rape people of more money, we're still in a big hole (country wise)

Some realism.

Zipppy wrote: »

however...

There are many couples, such as ourselves, who are ok moneywise and want a home...sooner rather than later..
However cos prices are on the floor, people wont sell, hence there is feck all coming on the market for sale

Who says prices are on the floor ?
Stop bloody comparing prices to 2006/2007.
Maybe compare them to 1995/1998/2000 and see what you are getting.
Sooner or later some people will have to sell.
Or are you going for a house in Shrewbury Road or some such ?

Zipppy wrote: »

The reason for this?

A human of the non male gender :mad:

Ahh it is all beginning to make sense now.

Solair

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I live in China. Only the top x% are allowed vote. The basic idea is only the "best" people should vote.

Based on Ireland's absolute mongo attitude to property I am starting to think the Chinese are onto something.

/Sort of joking

They're clearly doing a great job. 40% of Chinese GDP last year related to property activity. Sound familiar ??

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/23/china-real-estate-crash/