Kryo's Sports Bets!!!

kryogen

Bank 130.98

kryogen

Newells Old Boys @ 11/10 3pts
Newells Old Boys -1 AH 3.200 1pt
Whoops forgot to add in the overs, over 2.5 @6/4 4pts

yuck, two early goals fcuked my win bets for sure, but it did go over 2.5 goals so

+2 on the game overall

132.98 +32.98

kryogen

My bets today, and I cant do a write up right now, will try get back to it before the kick off times.

Euro 2012
Russia Ht/FT 3pts @2.75 -3
Over 2.5 goals Greece v Russia 3pt @9/10 -3
Over 2.5 Czech v Poland 3pts @ evns -3
3pt double of overs also. -3

Chile Play offs
Union Espanola v O Higgins 3pts @ 19/20 +2.85

Argentina
Velez Sarsfield v CA Tigre 3pts @ 5/6


In play bet, 2 pts in play on this getting tired of seeing my team dominate but waste chance after chance tbh, goal disallowed with the last kick of the game too fcuk sake, I actually think they had the ball in the net twice in the 95th minute and both disallowed



20pt outlay

kryogen

A group winners treble of Russia, Germany and Spain still works out @ 0.64 buying money?

kryogen

This has been soul destroying so far, really knocking me...5 bets down so far out of 7 with just the 1 win and 1 to go.

Going to add another 7pts to Velez to try to recoup my losses for the day.

Total on Velez now 3pts @ 5/6
7pts @ 1.875 -0.5 AH

kryogen

May aswell give my write up for the match while Im at it

Velez Sarsfield v CA Tigre

The last 8 meetings of these two has resulted in 6 Sarsfield wins, 1 draw and 1 win for Tigre.

You would need to go back to 2008 to find the last time Tigre came away from Velez with a point (1-1)

Velez have outscored Tigre in those 8 games 15-6.

Velez have gone on a poor run lately, losing to Belgrano, drawing with Boca and losing to Argentinos! Shock result of the lot but I think this is the game where they will find their form again.

Tigre sit in 2nd place in the Clausura 2 points ahead of Velez but they have had some nice fixtures lately relative to Velez.

You know what, whats the point?

It will either win or it wont

kryogen

As has been the way with these things, the team I back has a man sent off then goes behind.

Luckily for me this time, I thought about what my instinct was, what my research pointed to and how my day had been, and went the opposite way to what my instincts and research had pointed me towards, surprise surprise it worked out.

Had 10 pts staked on it in play after watching the first few minutes of the game.



Only posting it now because I was actually afraid the log would jinx it, I am developing an odd superstition about the log the last few days, most bets I dont include are going ok, most bets I do include are failing.

I try to not aftertime if I can help it, but I just couldnt bring myself to log it in before full time.

kryogen

Bank:143.83

jive

did you just add 30 points to your log balance with a bet you never logged? :S

kryogen

jive wrote: »

did you just add 30 points to your log balance with a bet you never logged? :S

Yep, I understand the wrong in that, its why I put up the screenshot, I literally just could not bring myself to post it before the end of the game. It was part of my log and would have been posted either way, its cool if you don't believe that. The log is only for myself.

kryogen

Back to avoidance of Euro bets

Finland Divisioin 1

RoPS v Viking

The home team have started the season very well, top of the table, 4 wins in a row at home and averaging just under 3 goals a game (2.8). They have not conceded more then 1 goal in any game this season. They concede an average of 0.5 goals per game at home.

In contrast to this Viking score on average 0.5 goals away and concede 2.5 goals average away from home. They actually total just 0.9 goals per game on average anyway regardless of home or away.

The overall records are RoPS played 8 won 7 drawn 1 scoring 17 and conceding just 3, Viking have played 7 won 4 and lost 3 scoring 6 and conceding 13.

They have won once away from home, to Jippo a team below them in the table, a 1-0 win in May.

As long as RoPS turn up today this should be a formality

The bet is RoPS -1,1.5 AH @ 1.900 15pt

jive

kryogen wrote: »

Yep, I understand the wrong in that, its why I put up the screenshot, I literally just could not bring myself to post it before the end of the game. It was part of my log and would have been posted either way, its cool if you don't believe that. The log is only for myself.

I believe you but it defeats the purpose of a log if you include bets after they have run and were never posted. I don't care myself but if people are following your bets then they may not be impressed.

•The third rule of the Gambling forum is you do not afterpost. The fourth rule of the Gambling forum is you do not afterpost. The fifth rule of the gambling forum…. You get the idea. Afterposting is coming on here telling everybody about how much you won off a 12 fold accumulator. Unless you posted it on the forum beforehand, no-one cares. It’s very frowned upon around these parts.

I'm not doing it posting about it to be smart, but having a balance of +40 whatever when it should really be +10 is misleading for anyone who comes across the thread.

kryogen

jive wrote: »

I believe you but it defeats the purpose of a log if you include bets after they have run and were never posted. I don't care myself but if people are following your bets then they may not be impressed.



I'm not doing it posting about it to be smart, but having a balance of +40 whatever when it should really be +10 is misleading for anyone who comes across the thread.

I understand and agree with you, but I have seen it done before with no problems so didnt see it as being a big issue. As said, it would have been added to the log regardless, and as I also said, the log is for me, it is not a tipping log whatsoever, I said that in the first post.

Again, I do agree with you though.

kryogen

RoPS won 2-0

+13.50

Its very clear, stay away from the Euros, I make money. Have to stay disciplined about that this time

kryogen

Bank 157.33

kryogen

One Euro bet so far because it is too good to turn down

Italy to win to nil is 11/10 currently with bet365

5pts

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

One Euro bet so far because it is too good to turn down

Italy to win to nil is 11/10 currently with bet365

5pts

Better effort from the lads this time overall but the bet still came in, comfortably enough it has to be said.

+5.5

kryogen

I know Im late, the games have just kicked off, but my bets for the evening, Euros unfrotunately are

Over 2.5 goals in France v Sweden and England to win

5pts each both even money

obviously no time for write up

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

I know Im late, the games have just kicked off, but my bets for the evening, Euros unfrotunately are

Over 2.5 goals in France v Sweden and England to win

5pts each both even money

obviously no time for write up

England win, yay...
How the French game finished under 2.5 is beyond me and fcuk France too, they have just re joined my black list.

Break even

kryogen

Bank 162.83


Norway Cup

Stromsgodset v Notodden

The home team are top of the Tippeligaen, one of the strongest teams in Norway and Notodden are one of the worst teams in the Adeccoligaen.

They have managed just one goal away from home this season in five games, (conceding 14) and Stromsgodset have managed 4 wins in a row on home soil.

The kicker is that Notodden are without the first and second choice goalkeepers today and one of their first choice defenders.

The only negative is that this is a cup game and we all know what can happen in cup games, this should simply not be anything but a comfortable home win, the odds on that outright are too skinny (2/11 generally) so the bet will be for Stromsgodset to win -2 on AH @1.7

10pts staked

Am looking into another couple of bets too and will be able to give write ups if I choose to go ahead with them.

kryogen

Iceland Premier League

FH Hafnarfjordur v Stjarnan

FH have played 7 games so far this season, losing once to the other big team in the league and currently sit top of the table, they are on a 3 game winning streak, they have scored 12 in their last two games so are certainly hitting some goalscoring form.

The opposition today, Stjarnan are also a decent team, they are good in attack but weak in defense and it is this defensive weakness, (and the odds) that swings this one in the home teams favour I think. They seem to have a policy of, you go we go and we will just outscore you, which has worked for them well in some games, but other times it goes horribly wrong like when they got embarassed 4-1 away to IBV.

If the game does become a goalfest I have full conficence in FH to come out on top. The odds of 4/6 are too tasty for me to leave this go.

6pts @ 4/6

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Bank 162.83


Norway Cup

Stromsgodset v Notodden

The home team are top of the Tippeligaen, one of the strongest teams in Norway and Notodden are one of the worst teams in the Adeccoligaen.

They have managed just one goal away from home this season in five games, (conceding 14) and Stromsgodset have managed 4 wins in a row on home soil.

The kicker is that Notodden are without the first and second choice goalkeepers today and one of their first choice defenders.

The only negative is that this is a cup game and we all know what can happen in cup games, this should simply not be anything but a comfortable home win, the odds on that outright are too skinny (2/11 generally) so the bet will be for Stromsgodset to win -2 on AH @1.7

10pts staked

Am looking into another couple of bets too and will be able to give write ups if I choose to go ahead with them.

All I can do here is laugh, 2-0 down at half time, disgraceful, then came out and won 3-2 in the end. Not enough for the bet though.

Unbelievable stuff -10

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Iceland Premier League

FH Hafnarfjordur v Stjarnan

FH have played 7 games so far this season, losing once to the other big team in the league and currently sit top of the table, they are on a 3 game winning streak, they have scored 12 in their last two games so are certainly hitting some goalscoring form.

The opposition today, Stjarnan are also a decent team, they are good in attack but weak in defense and it is this defensive weakness, (and the odds) that swings this one in the home teams favour I think. They seem to have a policy of, you go we go and we will just outscore you, which has worked for them well in some games, but other times it goes horribly wrong like when they got embarassed 4-1 away to IBV.

If the game does become a goalfest I have full conficence in FH to come out on top. The odds of 4/6 are too tasty for me to leave this go.

6pts @ 4/6

I was on fire today!

2-0 down so far

Edit: 2-1 HT
Edit: 2-2 FT

Totally dominated the second half, just could not get the goals the domination warranted, had 19 shots in total with 11 on target (Stjarnan managed 6 shots total) but it just wasnt enough, giving them the two goal head start killed the bet. Could have had a penalty at the end too I thought.

Disappointing. -6

kryogen

Might have a bet on the Copa Libertadores, not seeing too much that is appealing, maybe the unders.

Corinthians have not lost at home in the competition in 7 years, their last 8 games have gone under and they do have the best defence in the league/competition.

I think Corinthians won the tie in the first leg really by getting the away win, they are so hard to break down defensively and that will be even worse tonight you would assume now that they have something to protect.

In general Santos away form in the compeition has been bad anyway, they have only won 3 times this season, they rely a lot on the home form, they are so strong at home, the defeat to Corinthians last week was the first game they failed to win at home in this competition.

Corinthians will only make one change, Emerson the goalscorer from the first leg wont be playing, other then that I would expect the exact same line up, and there is talk that Elano will be dropped for Santos for a more attacking shape from the word go.

This would be a huge test for Santos, I still believe they are the best team in South America, but to go to Corinthians and win when they have something to protect is a huge ask, the 9/5 on offer for a Santos win does not really interest me. Under 2.5 goals seems to be the way to go overall

I have checked the last few head to head meetings between these two and they have gone over 3 times in the last 5 meetings of the teams, but it is a different Corinthians defence this season, as I said earlier their last 8 games ina row have gone under and given Santos poor away record there is not much to suggest they will be able to score more then 2 goals.

They could of course turn up, turn on the style and win this, it would not surprise me at all, but on balance I am going to take the unders @4/7 for 10 pts and either get back some money today or compound my losses with another one!

Total Goals under 2.5
10pts @ 4/7

The draw @ 23/10 holds appeal also and I might have a bit on that too, Ill make up my mind later, 0-0 or 1-1 are also things I will think about

I left out that Corinthians have only conceded 2 goals in the Copa this year, that is a record

kryogen

Game finished 1-1

+5.71

Didn't get to watch it in the end, shame I didn't add the 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines I thought we very likely to the log

Still a bad day but at least I got a little bit back.

kryogen

Bank 152.54

One bet catches my eye early for value

Swedish Superstratten

Halmstads v Assyriska

There is value to be found here in the 4/6 odds on Halmstads, they are on a very good run, 6 games unbeaten at the moment, winning the last 4 in a row and at home they are unbeaten, 5 wins and a draw (with Angelholms)

Assyriska have played 6 away games so far, losing 4 and winning 2, they can put in good performance, they were only beaten 1-0 by Osters away in their last away game, the home form has been pretty good, they sit 10th in the table at the moment, Halmstad occupy 3rd.

They both have goals in the team also, 7 of Assyriska 11 games have gone over 2.5 and 6 of Halmstads last 8 have gone over too so the over 3 goal line @ 2.075 seems to have a bit of value here also, when the games have gone over they also generally go over 3 goals 5 of the 7 overs games Assyriska played were over 3 goals and 5 of the 6 overs games that Halmstads played went over 3 goals too.

Halmstads have covered -1 in the last 4 games in a row and I have decided that is the way to go with the win bet, I am also taking the goal line bet also as I believe the chances of goals in the game is very high between these two.

Two bets for the game

7pts on Halmstad win -1 on AH @ 2.150 +8.05
5pts on Goal Line over 3 @ 2.075 +5.38

I like the insurance those bets give also.

kryogen

Halmstad game finished 3-1 to the selection, nice

13.43

Bank 165.97

kryogen

Nothing really sticks out in football today other then a couple of possible LOI bets, will try get back to them later, going to be pretty busy for the day so if I do get to log a bet it might be kinda last minute

kryogen

May end up having a cover shot on the Hull KR v Catalan match later in Rugby League as I am waiting on Hull for a treble after then Portugal and Halmstad games yesterday, the oddsre shifting so might try to see if I can lock in decent profit, if not Ill just let it run.

kryogen

I like Longford Town to beat Finn Harps in the LOI and Limerick also, will have a look more closely when I get home

One bet that I am certain to do is for an old favourite of mine, Newells Old Boys

Last game of the Clausera, and Newells have something to play for where as the oppositoin(Lanus) dont

Lanus have already one of the worst attacks in the league scoring just 19 goals in 18 games and they may rest some of the better players tonight also since they have nothing to play for, their season is is over.

Newells, currently 4th, can get above Boca in the table if they win tonight, they are at home and will want to sign off in style and I think win to nil is a strong possibility and may add it later, but for now my bet is

Newells Old Boys to win @1.91 10pts

Odds dropping, they were 2.00 this morning but I couldnt get the bet on, they are generally available 1.8 to 1.9 right now.

kryogen

Decided not to lay off the Hull KR bet and it may be coming back to bite me in the ass, they have spent 6x as many minutes almost inside the Catalans 20 but only have a 2 point lead, hate these low scoring games, 6-4 at the moment, the amount of great situations wasted by Hull is worrying though, over 6 and a half minutes inside the opponents 20 and just 1 try to show is not good.

Another fcuking waste there!

A try and a drop goal in the space of 3 minutes put Catalan ahead by 1, ****ing knew it.

And nothing, no final push, give Catalan a penalty instead which they duly score, 13-10 Catalan

fcuk Hull and their shower of choke artists

I know its not a log bet but there is nowhere else to rant about it. ****

kryogen

Considering buying out @11/10 for a 0-0

kryogen

Newells really should have won this, but Lanus soaked up a lot of pressure in fairness and didnt break and Newells were pretty wasteful with any chance they did have

Great save at the end of the game from Lanus and I knew it was over, excellent save and the follow up corner where the taker actually slipped and kicked it out of play (ridiculous) put the final nail in.

-10

kryogen

Bank 155.97

Following on from the topic in the football tips thread I have decided to follow the general thinking on the All Boy v Boca game tonight. Have gone for a safer option of over 2 on the goal line and am putting a small stake on over 3 also.

10pts on over 2@1.7
3pts on over 3@ 3.35

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Bank 155.97

Following on from the topic in the football tips thread I have decided to follow the general thinking on the All Boy v Boca game tonight. Have gone for a safer option of over 2 on the goal line and am putting a small stake on over 3 also.

10pts on over 2@1.7 +7
3pts on over 3@ 3.35+7.05

The score is currently 3-1 so job done

+14.05

Bank 170.02

kryogen

One bet for today so far.

HJK Helsinki v TPS Turku

Taking the home team here -1, they are top of the league playing the team in 8th place. They have covered this handicap 4 out of the last 5 times at home, winning 2-0 3-0 2-0 2-1 and 4-1 in those games

They have kept 3 clean sheets in a row at home and another market to look at in win to nil @11/8 I am considering placing money on that also but will more then likely just do the AH

When these teams met here in 2011 HJK won 6-0, a similar scoreline would be very welcome today

10pt -1 AH@1.625

kryogen

Bought out @ evns for no 1st goal

kryogen

0-0 FT

Pack of fcuking wasters. I may just avoid this league altogether in the future

HJK stats on the left



So many good attacking positions wasted never mind the shots

kryogen

Bank 170.02

Estonian treble out of boredom, no write up and very small stakes

JK Nomme Kaluj @ 1/16
JK Sillamae Kalev @ 1/4
FC Lavadia Talinn @ 11/20

3pt treble @ 1.05/1

kryogen

I like under 2.5 goals in the Sillmae Kalev game also

7pts @ 27/20

Neither team score many, Tammeka Tartu are very poor, the danger is that they will get beat 3-0 other then that I dont see this going over 2.5 goals

For reference it has come in the last 7 Tartu games in a row, 10 out of 15 overall

It has come in 4 of the last 7 Kalev games and 11 times out of 15 in total.

kryogen

The other game that will most likely go under imo is Levadia away to Trans Narva

Levadia are a serial unders team for me, it has come in the last 6 games in a row, and 13 out of 18 games

Trans Narva have only gone under 7 out of 15 times, but Levdia should ensure a low scoring game here.

5pts under 2.5 goals @ 43/40

kryogen

My best bet (banker) is the one I have bolded

kryogen

Feckin Lavadia conceding the first goal of the game was a killer, they got the winner in the 91st minute to take that over 2.5 goals it did of course complete the treble I picked so no harm done really.

The banker came in, finished 2-0 to Sillmae Kalev, have me a fright as the got a second with 3 minutes to go and it would have hurt if that had gone over and Nomme pissed in as expected.

So to total up

JK Nomme Kaluj @ 1/16
JK Sillamae Kalev @ 1/4
FC Lavadia Talinn @ 11/20

3pt treble @ 1.05/1

Win +3.15

Game A

7pts @ 27/20 +9.45

Game B

5pts under 2.5 goals @ 43/40 -5 last minute winners suck!

+7.60 overall

kryogen

Points in Bank 177.62 +77.62

kryogen

Had been looking into the MLB earlier, picked the Braves in what I think will be a tight game, forgot to put the bet on fell asleep, I just woke up and went to try get a bet on but its 5-1 in their favour.

1st world problems!

kryogen

I am leaning toward Oakland @ 21/20 in the game with Seattle.

To hell with it Ill stick 5pts on it for an intrest, Im sure this one will go tits up though since I missed out on the one I actually wanted to do.

For what its worth, Seattles starting pitcher is struggling of late (gave up 10 HR's in his last 4 starts in his last start he gave up 5 v Arizona) and the A's new pitcher did quite well v Seattle last time he faced them. He is a left hander and Seattle are 8-15 when facing a left hander this season.

Not much of a write up I know, but its 2 am

kryogen

As expected, tits up

lost 3-2 with the winning run being scored in the 8th inning and they could not respond.

Let it be a lesson, if you miss the team you want to bet on dont just bet on something for the sake of it! It gave me an intrest though so meh

-5

kryogen

Spain to have under 65.5% possession @ 4/6 12pts

Might do a couple of bets in play

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Spain to have under 65.5% possession @ 4/6 12pts

Might do a couple of bets in play

Win, was getting hairy there towards the end of extra time, Portugal really ran out of steam in the second half and were terrible at holding the ball in extra time.

Spain finished with 64.4% of the possession

Phew!

+8

Bank 180.62

kryogen

Can't find anything I really like in the Copa Libertadores, the only thing that really interested me was the under 2.5 goals but the best price I can get is 10/21.....

Not really interested at the odds, might think about under 1.5 @ 7/11 but that seems a bit to skinny also......

Could just go with Boca to win @3/4 but given how Corinthians will most likely set up to play (extremely defensive and frustrating to Boca) and given how effective they were against Santos I don't feel great about that either, may end up just watching this one for the love of the game