Statistical analysis

Formation

How do you price up a race?

What statistical analysis can be applied to horse racing?

Formation

Instead of pricing up every runner how do you determine there is value in the horse you back?

Formation

Even a sports stats book recommendation?

Formation

not one person here actually prices up a race?

you look at the form, pick a horse and just back at whatever price is going regardless?

canister94

look i do alot of this rubbish it takes work you need to know formulas and in the end horse racing isnt easily predicted by stats too many variables but i could help you if you want

Formation

Its true that horse racing is one of the hardest sports to statistically analyse with a lot of variables.

If you tell me what formulae you use I would do the research myself.

Thanks.

canister94

Apologies for the delayed reply. Well really the formulas only relate to prices and that all other formulas dont have any real meaning.There is some very good american literature out there for small money on amazon. Yes horse racing is the hardest sport to statistically unfold.But trends like draw analysis can be very usefull if spotted in time i could reccomend some books to you if you would like

Formation

Formation wrote: »

not one person here actually prices up a race?........

You can't deduce that from the fact you got no replies
Perhaps people don't want to share how they price up races.

canister94

RoverJames wrote: »

You can't deduce that from the fact you got no replies
Perhaps people don't want to share how they price up races.

Really every one needs a start some where you didnt just magically find out how to price races.All this guy is looking for is a little help that is what i will try and give him.If you dont want to help him buzz off

canister94

canister94 wrote: »

Really every one needs a start some where you didnt just magically find out how to price races.All this guy is looking for is a little help that is what i will try and give him.If you dont want to help him buzz off

I just pointed out that he couldn't deduce that no one priced up race themselves due to his thread getting no replies

Formation

canister94 wrote: »

Apologies for the delayed reply. Well really the formulas only relate to prices and that all other formulas dont have any real meaning.There is some very good american literature out there for small money on amazon. Yes horse racing is the hardest sport to statistically unfold.But trends like draw analysis can be very usefull if spotted in time i could reccomend some books to you if you would like

I would appreciate a recommendation. Basically I want to know how the odds compilers do it when making up the morning prices.

Formation

canister94 wrote: »

Apologies for the delayed reply. Well really the formulas only relate to prices and that all other formulas dont have any real meaning.There is some very good american literature out there for small money on amazon. Yes horse racing is the hardest sport to statistically unfold.But trends like draw analysis can be very usefull if spotted in time i could reccomend some books to you if you would like

I would appreciate a recommendation. Basically I want to know how the bonkmaker odds compilers do it when making up the morning prices.

Headspace

Good question. I get the impression statistics and computer programs aren't nearly as commonly used in Ireland and england as in the U.S. I've read about a few very successful Aussies Alan Woods and Zeljko Ranogajec. Any work beyond reading the racing post would be more than 99% of Irish punters do.

Formation

Tough to get an answer though.

gnella

http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/barry%E2%80%99s-national-hunt-rating-method/

have a look at this NH rating system,you can add or subtract anything else you think is relevant

lamoss

Op , When races are priced up they are done by odds compilers who have access to huge databases of information on every horse in training and every race that it has run in.
I always used to think when I was younger that an odds compiler was a fat middle-aged bloke with a fag in one hand and a cup of coffee on his desk flipping through racing programmes making up the odds as he went. But in real life an odds compiler is only the team leader they have dozens of people work under them gathering information.I saw a tv program years ago about odds compilers and they worked for the press association providing Information for all the newspapers racing coverage. It is not one person setting the odds it is the opinons of many people on the team.

If you want information I would suggest that you get a timeform account and use all the tools thay have ( ratings , videos, form , breeding etc) and subscribe to racingpost online service .

Horse racing is many times harder to predict then football betting, when you do research you will find that it will take you ages to just price up one race:eek:

If you look back at Pyros log from last year you will see how much hard work he put into it and all the late nights he had as well.

If you have plenty of time on your hands pickout a race of say 10/11 runners and check the results, subscribe to timeform just for a day and use their service and go over every runner to check how they run previously taking all factors into account.........see how long this takes you when you do this

Anyway I hope you find what your looking for , Goodluck

Formation

I thought it was something along those lines.

Basically punting on horses is not for the part time amateur.

I have succesfully applied a mathematical formula that analyses about 150 soccer matches a week and throws up 5-10 games a week in the 2 markets i specialise in which is very doable timewise as I place about 3 bets a week and have a decent ROI.

I don't back horses and from what has been said here and other sources I will leave it alone. Its a tough way to make an easy living for any professionals out there.

myhorse

Headspace wrote: »

I've read about a few very successful Aussies Alan Woods and Zeljko Ranogajec.

Successful??? AW was a god and the daddy of them all imho although BB's supporters would argue that. and ZR/DW/DS and their crew is the greatest the world has ever seen or will see - period.
What AW did (AW is dead) would not be possible on Uk or Irish tracks as the criteria is totally different (AW made his money in Hong Kong and there are only 2 tracks and the same 1000 or so horse racing each other week in week out and the best policed racing in the world - you need straight racing)

To the OP - the following would be what you want -
computer based horse racing h/c'ing and wagering systems
. AW's early partner was involved with it.
TBH if you can (and I cant) understand them then you would already be working for nasa or similar.

canister94

sorry i have been away for a while and i want to give my opion and how i take horses handicapping and odds compiling.
To start of you need to watch every race every day from wherever you are going to back/lay horses.This can take hours to do .You then need to be able to analyze the races see horses that most miss not always the winner.The horse that miss the break/miss a jump/boxed in.Then the horses that may have not run their race and find a reason why they didnt .These are the horses you want to be on the ones that every ones else has forgotten about. Then there are 3 types of favouites genuine ,false ,dodgy.You want to be on genuine favouites .When i say genuine favourite i mean priced by you bookies prices are irrelevant yet.Then comes odds compiling this ties in to handicapping.Well odds compiling is slow and very tricky and doesnt come over night like everything involved in racing and gambling.i cant explain all in a few lines.VALUE this is the key to gambling this is where your odds come into play with bookies if you price a horse at 3/1 and bookies have him 6/1 then he is value to 3/1.He should be backed but this means you have to have faith in yourself and your compiling abilitys.computer systems and horse dont work too many variables horses=hardwork no questions
There are books i can reccomend people if they want pm if you do.i can try answer questions if relevant