Met Eireann and their inaccurate forecasts

jetsonx

I cancelled some sporting activities for today purely on the basis of forecasts from Met Eireann.

If anybody saw some of their broadcasts during the weekend (Fri and Sat) you would think there was going to be a typhoon over most of the island.

But no, just a couple of heavy showers than only lasted about 15 minutes.

I am sick of Met Eireann predicting weather extremes that never seem to happen. This has not been the first time, they always seem to be at it. I am sure, I am not the only one whose plans were interrupted?

Jesus Wept

No, I just look outside the window, works better.
You're welcome.

jetsonx

Andy Carroll wrote: »

No, I just look outside the window, works better.
You're welcome.

yes..looking out the Window gives you a much more accurate forecast - old style yet reliable!

a fat guy

Are you sure that they weren't financial forecasts?

Nodin

jetsonx wrote: »

I cancelled some sporting activities for today purely on the basis of forecasts from Met Eireann.

If anybody saw some of their broadcasts during the weekend (Fri and Sat) you would think there was going to be a typhoon over most of the island.

But no, just a couple of heavy showers than only lasted about 15 minutes.

I am sick of Met Eireann predicting weather extremes that never seem to happen. This has not been the first time, they always seem to be at it. I am sure, I am not the only one whose plans were interrupted?

They're fucking up the exact science of weather prediction? Holy jaysus....is there no end to the disasters this state has foisted on us....

Brendog

If you want perfect weather predictions, then join the X-men like a normal person.

Jeez

Sky King

MT Cranium FTW!

puzzle factory

what are you on about,met Eireann have it down to the t,
some cloulds in the sky, a dash of rain sometime doing the day and the sun might pop out for a few minutes, works for every day.

admiralofthefleet

we live on an island, its notoriously difficult to give even a reasonably accurate forcast for an island

the keen edge

You cant trust them presenters, sure everyone knows that they are on price work.

They get pay by the linear metre of rain they predict.

jpfahy

jetsonx wrote: »

I cancelled some sporting activities for today purely on the basis of forecasts from Met Eireann.

If anybody saw some of their broadcasts during the weekend (Fri and Sat) you would think there was going to be a typhoon over most of the island.

But no, just a couple of heavy showers than only lasted about 15 minutes.

I am sick of Met Eireann predicting weather extremes that never seem to happen. This has not been the first time, they always seem to be at it. I am sure, I am not the only one whose plans were interrupted?

Couldn't agree more. Whatever computer model they are using for their forecasts just doesn't work. When I was a child in the sixties they had more accurate forecasts.

jetsonx

jpfahy wrote: »

Whatever computer model they are using for their forecasts just doesn't work.

I would hate to be a fisherman or pilot relying on their forecasts.

ninebeanrows

there will probably be a tornado or supercell now

TehDagsBass

Andy Carroll wrote: »

No, I just look outside the window, works better.
You're welcome.

In fairness, looking out the window is how Met Eireann apparently conduct their forecasting.

JonathanAnon

I'm in South Kildare... and something is kicking off... Two large flashes of lightning so far and loads of thunders.... I think God is having a word with Cardinal Brady..

*gets back behind sofa* :-(

Jesus Wept

TehDagsBass wrote: »

In fairness, looking out the window is how Met Eireann apparently conduct their forecasting.

Yea and they aren't far from me so I might as well. :pac:

cocoshovel

jetsonx wrote: »

I would hate to be a fisherman or pilot relying on their forecasts.

Pilots have their own private, far more accurate met eireann site to check it on. Met Eireann aren't that innaccurate, its more down to how people interpret what is said.

TehDagsBass

jpfahy wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. Whatever computer model they are using for their forecasts just doesn't work. When I was a child in the sixties they had more accurate forecasts.

Computer model?!

No,no,no,no,no my friend. You're giving them way too much credibility there. What they do is, in the morning the entire staff goes out and looks at the sky. They then each score the likelihood of various types of weather events - rain, snow, etc. based on what they saw in the sky.

The average of these scores are brought to the manager's dog, who has a knack for predicting the weather apparently, who motions toward one "model" that he believes to be correct at that time.

They then use artists they found on Grafton Street, making sand sculptures that are the exact same every day for some strange reason, to draw pretty graphs based on what they interpret to be the wishes of the dog.

Once drawn, the dog is shown the charts and he once again indicates what he believes to be correct.

And thus is meteorology in Ireland.

Duckworth_Luas

I studied Mathematics. One of the optional courses was the type of maths used in weather forecasting. It made my brain hurt!

Shryke

It was warm and sunny about 2 hours ago. Then went to a bit overcast and then started BUCKETING hailstones for a solid 10 minutes followed by a bit of thunder and now it's kind of grand again. Forecasts are useless.

IM0

its actually pretty good, once you know the limitations and understand that those clouds and sun on the map are just that. an icon.... not to scale
forget gettig an accurate forecast for more than a few days away, we live on a small island. weather is very fickle for that reason.

cocoshovel

People really need to understand how weather works more.

kerry4sam

Sky King wrote: »

MT Cranium FTW!

Yeah I would reccommend this guy also over the RTE predictions, apart from looking out your window of course

Milk & Honey

cocoshovel wrote: »

People really need to understand how weather works more.

Everyone understands how weather works. It is windy, raining heavily, raining lightly, cold, warm, hot, snowing, hailstones, calm , stormy or some combination of one or more of these.
What people do not understand is how to know which of them or which combination is coming next and for how long and which combination is going to succeed the first one and so on.

jetsonx

cocoshovel wrote: »

People really need to understand how weather works more.

I don't want to know about meteorology, not my job. All I want
is a reasonable prediction of what weather conditions are going to be like in 48 or 24 hours time. I will allow for forecasters getting it wrong some of the time, but its not ideal when they are wrong nearly all of the time.

And, I presume they make their forecasts to be interpreted by people of reasonable intelligence.

Where To

BBC Weather is more accurate.

IM0

ok. heres something to bear in mind when watching forecasts. April is usually a showery month. sunny spells during the day, and a chance of showers. we on the east coast get our summer in April, but its still cool. thats just the way our climate is. May is the transition between spring and summer, so it can be like april and also a chance of nice weather. june july are usually disappointing. the quicker people get over the fact we dont get summer in these months the better. its usually mild but can be wet. August more settled. and september is usually an indian summer, more nice weather

Oct. cool again. Nov. not to bad considering its winter. winter temps only really kick in around Dec. Jan cold. Feb cold but spring is coming, can be bright and cold.

the take home lesson is if its sunny its usually cool. if its wet its usually milder. and we dont get many days that are mild AND sunny like the continent. we have a temperate climate

Daisy M

Get over to the weather forum. These guys are fab, take a look at MTs daily forecast you will never be left wondering about the weather again.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=374

xzanti

Serious thunder and lightening at the minute over Kildare.. scary stuff!! and hailstones the size of marbles to boot.

ninebeanrows

OP i think you've just stirred on a beast of a storm!

Not far off a supercell making a b-line for Greater Dublin!!

38 redwood

I was just saying to my daughter that hotels must be spitting fire at the Met Office. They predicted all sorts of bad weather for the weekend and must have made alot of people think twice about going away. My grand daughter was making her 1st Communion on Sat last. I listened to every forecast over the week. The Herald wrote that snow was expected. Thankfully we had a lovely sunny day. Yesterday was a lovely day too. This morning I went for a lovely walk in the sunshine.
This afternoon wasnt too good though but 2 and half days out of 3 was great to get. Evelyn Cusack is full of her own importance. She would blind you with science.She is great for telling us about the weather we just had. She uses so much jargon at the end you dont know what the forecast is. Over 100 people are employed in the Met Office. What do they do?

kitty9

we had thunder and lightning here in laois.

couldnt hang out the washing all day

was dreadful. thankfully Met Eireann warned us of the impending bad weather.

ALL HAIL MET EIREANN :pac:

lol look at the comments

IM0

kitty9 wrote: »

we had thunder and lightning here in laois.

couldnt hang out the washing all day

was dreadful. thankfully Met Eireann warned us of the impending bad weather.

ALL HAIL MET EIREANN :pac:

lol look at the comments

never mind that. check out jean in her leather dress. nom.. :cool:

Sea Filly

Weather forecasts will never be 100% accurate, it's impossible.

admiralofthefleet

Weathercheck wrote: »

OP i think you've just stirred on a beast of a storm!

Not far off a supercell making a b-line for Greater Dublin!!

anything for arklow? like a lovely july day here atm

maiden

Who uses Met Eireann for weather predictions?? Shur everyone knows there is only one please to get an accurate reading!!!

The weather forum!!!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=374

cocoshovel

You dont need to have a degree to understand the weather, its simple to know the basics and you could pretty much tell how the day is going to turn out by reading the weather brief and looking at the sky in the morning.
I guess thats not going to get through to some people though, some pretty ignorant things have been said so far.
Anyhow, I find this to be the most accurate thing on met eireann for predicting rain fall at least. http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

IM0

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

anything for arklow? like a lovely july day here atm

so its raining then

Redjeep!

Has nobody figured out that Met Eireann give pretty much the same forecast 365 days of the year ?

"Sunny spells. Intermittent showers, sometimes heavy."

Or some variation of this.

What's more it's pretty accurate 365 days of the year.

jetsonx

Redjeep! wrote: »

Has nobody figured out that Met Eireann give pretty much the same forecast 365 days of the year ?

"Sunny spells. Intermittent showers, sometimes heavy."

Or some variation of this.

What's more it's pretty accurate 365 days of the year.

Why do you think they use that cloud icon that also has sun behind it
and rain coming out of it so much...

xflyer

"Sunny spells. Intermittent showers, sometimes heavy."

Very true, they tend to get it right on the day though.:rolleyes: But not always. I remember driving halfway across the country in cloudy conditions. When I got home I turned on the weather and the nice lady told us that the sun was breaking out all over the country. Not in this country I thought.

To be fair though there was some seriously heavy rain this weekend which was forecast. But not all areas were hit. It was a beautiful day here on the west coast. Also you cannot forecast for local anomalys. It can be sunny in one place and rain all day ten miles north or south.

My opinion is that the current weather situation is testing the Met Eireann to the limit. They're not used to this yet. All their experience is with the normal westerly winds and weather coming from the Atlantic. Now that the Jetstream is down south we're getting this unusual weather coming from the East or South or North. They're outside their comfort zone.

The BBC do a better service on their website even for Ireland.

ghostdancer

i particularly like the way they completely change the forecast as the day goes on on their website

Morning forecast for the day: Dark Cloud and showers across all of Ireland.
*check 2 hours later when there's been no rain*
Bright sunny spells all across the island.

CrazyRabbit

Here's the weather forecast for the rest of the year in Ireland.

Rain, more rain and lots of cloud. Some breaks in rain/cloud cover which may last many hours at best. Fog in some areas on occasion with a small chance of thunder/lightning as well. Short spells of ice/snow may also be possible.

You're welcome.

chin_grin

I heard a butterfly just flapped it's wings in Peking.

CruelCoin

The industry I'm in, an inaccurate forecast can cost me thousands.

I'd love to see the introduction of penalties for botched forecasts..

I'd tolerate a small degree of variation, but forecasting +3 and getting -2 is completely out of order.

Stop treating the job as a stepping stone into modelling and do it right ffs.

jetsonx

ghostdancer wrote: »

i particularly like the way they completely change the forecast as the day goes on on their website

Morning forecast for the day: Dark Cloud and showers across all of Ireland.
*check 2 hours later when there's been no rain*
Bright sunny spells all across the island.

that is so spot on! You think it's your memory first, but yes, they completely change some of their forecasts in the space of a couple of hours! I think they really must use the highly sophisticated LOTW (looking-out-the-window) system

And as another poster has pointed out, they go to significant efforts to tell us what the weather HAS been like....at least they get that right!

jupiterjack

gave up on that forecast ages ago.

Cassidy28

The bbc weather on countryfile on sunday evening is the weather I watch, I got a turn off from met eire a few years back when they had the amatures on for a while, mind you the bunch that are there now are no better.

jetsonx

Cassidy28 wrote: »

The bbc weather on countryfile on sunday evening is the weather I watch, I got a turn off from met eire a few years back when they had the amatures on for a while, mind you the bunch that are there now are no better.

Thanks for the reminder of this service.

I've been using their website for the past week. So far, so good.

It avoids the sweeping generalisations/@ss covering vague "sunny-spells-at-times-showers-sometimes-heavy" forecasts provided by Met Eireann.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Never using Met Eireann again - too many plans ruined by their inaccuracies.