The Football Tips Thread v3

Lasagna Diarra

Bastia @ 1.70 next week vs Troyes has to be the bet of the month. I think I might put my biggest stake ever on this bet. Bastia are very strong at home and Troyes are 3rd division material. Bastia thrashed them 5-1 at home last season in the 2nd division.

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Bastia @ 1.70 next week vs Troyes has to be the bet of the month. I think I might put my biggest stake ever on this bet. Bastia are very strong at home and Troyes are 3rd division material. Bastia thrashed them 5-1 at home last season in the 2nd division.

Any suspensions? Injuries after weekend matches? Games mid week? Anything else which can matter?

Lasagna Diarra

stingerro wrote: »

Any suspensions? Injuries after weekend matches? Games mid week? Anything else which can matter?

It doesn't look like they have any suspended players, don't know about injuries though, I'll do some research later. No mid week games for either team.

babymanval

I had a post typed, but Boards acted the bollox and I lost it, basically:

Been waiting on Atletico Madrid HT/FT all week due to someone mentionin their tendancy to try wrap things up quickly and rest Falcao around the hour mark. They have been leading at HT in 4 of 5 wins thus far, and Espanyol are 2nd from bottom. 21/10 for this is huge imo. 11/5 on over 3.5 goals is also notable.

I wanna double it with a home banker from somewhere in Europe tomorrow, making it ~7/2. Anyone any ideas(with reasons)? (Must be 4/6+, I'm risk-free promo'ing).

EDIT: HT/FT can be had at 11/4!

EDIT 2: Ha, ok, I thought that Atletico Evens price seemed a little generous, and after a little research, it seems Falcao is injured, which makes a bit more sense now. I'm still gonna back HT/FT though. Why? Sure, Falcao is in line for the pichichi at present, and hugely relied-upon at Atletico for goals. However his goal tally is 50% penos, which will still be won, and converted (albeit at probably a slightly lesser rate without him). I actually think his absence here creates value that should probably be re-examined by those setting the odds.

EDIT 3: Also, am I missing something with the 11/4 price on Levante away to bottom of the league/F3 A10 Osasuna??? Is the Estadio El Sadar an uber-fortress or somethin?

stingerro

babymanval wrote: »

EDIT 3: Also, am I missing something with the 11/4 price on Levante away to bottom of the league/F3 A10 Osasuna??? Is the Estadio El Sadar an uber-fortress or somethin?

It's one of the most difficult places to go in Spain, even when Osasuna is struggling. Bigger teams can lose points there, so odds here are pretty much spot on.

seanhynes

babymanval wrote: »

I had a post typed, but Boards acted the bollox and I lost it, basically:

Been waiting on Atletico Madrid HT/FT all week due to someone mentionin their tendancy to try wrap things up quickly and rest Falcao around the hour mark. They have been leading at HT in 4 of 5 wins thus far, and Espanyol are 2nd from bottom. 21/10 for this is huge imo. 11/5 on over 3.5 goals is also notable.

I wanna double it with a home banker from somewhere in Europe tomorrow, making it ~7/2. Anyone any ideas(with reasons)? (Must be 4/6+, I'm risk-free promo'ing).

EDIT: HT/FT can be had at 11/4!

EDIT 2: Ha, ok, I thought that Atletico Evens price seemed a little generous, and after a little research, it seems Falcao is injured, which makes a bit more sense now. I'm still gonna back HT/FT though. Why? Sure, Falcao is in line for the pichichi at present, and hugely relied-upon at Atletico for goals. However his goal tally is 50% penos, which will still be won, and converted (albeit at probably a slightly lesser rate without him). I actually think his absence here creates value that should probably be re-examined by those setting the odds.

EDIT 3: Also, am I missing something with the 11/4 price on Levante away to bottom of the league/F3 A10 Osasuna??? Is the Estadio El Sadar an uber-fortress or somethin?

Falcao 100% out so???

tip74

Injuries & suspensions:
VVV Venlo v PSV Eindhoven
VVV Venlo: Maguire (0/0 m), Altheer (0/0 d), Reimerink (0/0 f), Meeuwis (5/0 m), Türk (6/0 m)
PSV Eindhoven: Pieters (0/0 d), Jörgensen (1/0 d)
pick 2

Stromsgodset IF v SK Brann
Stromsgodset IF: Aas (12/3 d)
SK Brann: Kalvenes (7/0 d), Sokolowski (9/2 m), Askar (22/8 f), Mjelde (20/2 m), El Fakiri (11/0 d)
pick 1

Sampdoria v SSC Napoli
Sampdoria: Pozzi, Juan Antonio, Tissone, Poli, Maxi Lopez, Maresca, Da Costa
SSC Napoli: Britos
pick 2

Alaska1

I see Udinese have gone out to evens to beat Genoa this morning from 10/11 last night.

Worth a few euro.

Lasagna Diarra

stingerro wrote: »

Any suspensions? Injuries after weekend matches? Games mid week? Anything else which can matter?

Some update: Bastia will be missing Cahuzac (important defensive midfielder) through suspension. According to reports, Troyes created very few chances in their home game vs Toulouse. Morale is on Bastia's side, they managed to put an end to their losing streak and drew vs an in-form Nice side, they could've won if they had a better keeper - they're all complaining about him on the Bastia forum.

SteelyDanJalapeno

tip74 wrote: »

Injuries & suspensions:
VVV Venlo v PSV Eindhoven
VVV Venlo: Maguire (0/0 m), Altheer (0/0 d), Reimerink (0/0 f), Meeuwis (5/0 m), Türk (6/0 m)
PSV Eindhoven: Pieters (0/0 d), Jörgensen (1/0 d)
pick 2

Stromsgodset IF v SK Brann
Stromsgodset IF: Aas (12/3 d)
SK Brann: Kalvenes (7/0 d), Sokolowski (9/2 m), Askar (22/8 f), Mjelde (20/2 m), El Fakiri (11/0 d)
pick 1

Sampdoria v SSC Napoli
Sampdoria: Pozzi, Juan Antonio, Tissone, Poli, Maxi Lopez, Maresca, Da Costa
SSC Napoli: Britos
pick 2

3.93 treble

SteelyDanJalapeno

Brann and Hodd played each other in a cup game on Friday, both teams are playing league games against seperate opposition today Stromgodset and Tromsdalen it may be worth backing against either team in some fashion.

I personally like Tromsdalen and draw @ 2.62

stingerro

Very strange odds movement in Latvian Skonto Riga vs Daugava match. Potential fix for guests, they are still available for 2.50 at bet365. I personally went for DNB at 2.25.

Lasagna Diarra

stingerro wrote: »

Very strange odds movement in Latvian Skonto Riga vs Daugava match. Potential fix for guests, they are still available for 2.50 at bet365. I personally went for DNB at 2.25.

As long as the game goes under 2.5, I'm happy

magherakid

Nottingham Forest v Derby
Over 2.5 goals 19/20

Nottingham Forest 1 v 2 Derby 17/09/2011 Championship

Nottingham Forest 5 v 2 Derby 29/12/2010 Championship

Nottingham Forest 3 v 2 Derby 29/08/2009 Championship

Nottingham Forest 1 v 3 Derby 21/02/2009 Championship

Nottingham Forest 2 v 3 Derby 04/02/2009 FA Cup

mailburner

was scratching around looking for a bet all morning
nearly backed udinese but without di natal i resisted
following you magher with that one
best of luck

Avfctom

nottingham forest to win
aston villa to win

£35 returns £180

mailburner

Avfctom wrote: »

nottingham forest to win
aston villa to win

£35 returns £180

you've invested plenty in the villa today
hope it pays off for you

babymanval

Based on my above reasoning, and on the form above there on Forest/Derby; I'm going with chunky free bet qualifying stake on a 4.3/1 double of Atletico HT/FT and over 2.5 in Forest/Derby.

Let the bumsqueekery commence...

babymanval

seanhynes wrote: »

Falcao 100% out so???

As far as I can ascertain; yeah.

http://m.goal.com/x/en-ng/news/3412690

http://www.marca.com/2012/09/29/en/football/spanish_football/1348909263.html

Avfctom

mailburner wrote: »

you've invested plenty in the villa today
hope it pays off for you

i decided not to have the 100 spread on the villa game went for this and 15 on gabby anytime villa win 4/1

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Klose to score anytime is 6/5. Looks interesting
If Lazio are going to win, most likely he'll be scoring

Nothing else stands out tomorrow. Poor showing

30 on that

babymanval

babymanval wrote: »

Based on my above reasoning, and on the form above there on Forest/Derby; I'm going with chunky free bet qualifying stake on a 4.3/1 double of Atletico HT/FT and over 2.5 in Forest/Derby.

Let the bumsqueekery commence...

Ugh. Tearing the E-docket up on this one already

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I've gone big on Under 2.5 in Skonto vs Daugava @ 1.70

As I said last week, games between Skonto and Ventspils/Liepajas/Daugava almost always go under 2.5 and even under 1.5.
The current league table looks like this:
# Team MP D P 1 Daugava Daugavpils 30 +33 66 2 Skonto 30 +25 60 3 Ventspils 29 +30 58 4 Liepājas Metalurgs 29 +20 58
Skonto can't afford to lose or they might be out of the top 3, and surely Daugava will be happy to stay 6 pts above Skonto, so like last week, everything points to an underish game again.

head to head stats: http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/09/30/latvia/virsliga/skonto-fc/fc-daugava-daugavpils/1260791/head2head/

FT 0-0

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

As long as the game goes under 2.5, I'm happy

Good for you as it ended 0:0.

Happy that I went for DNB.

Now on both to score in N.Forest vs Derby match.

Headshot

wtf how the **** doesnt klose take penos

brilou23

bent on the bench wba have to be good bet vs a bad villa team

Avfctom

brilou23 wrote: »

bent on the bench wba have to be good bet vs a bad villa team

if u had watched villa this year u would realise thats a good thing hes been our weak point lazy uinterested for me seeing bent dropped and gabby in makes me more confident

mrdmb

odds on Espanyol to win and odds on goals less than 2.5 have been dropping.....

Sútalún

mrdmb wrote: »

odds on Espanyol to win and odds on goals less than 2.5 have been dropping.....

Any idea why this is? Athletico got a lot missing?

mrdmb

i thought Falcao only....? well cuz most of the tips around were that Atletico to win...or the total goals more than 2.5...which is in contrary to the dropping odds on the other side.