The Football Tips Thread v3

FlawedGenius

West Ham DNB 11/10. Qpr missing a few defenders and are way too short considering theyve had some shocking home results so far.

Blatter

Headshot wrote: »

utd missing players, playing crap in the league and arent that good in europe of late

no bet for me

Agree, the bet I'm looking at on that match is both teams to score at 1.85

Blatter

FlawedGenius wrote: »

West Ham DNB 11/10. Qpr missing a few defenders and are way too short considering theyve had some shocking home results so far.

QPR and Hughes are under huge pressure for a win, are at home and are the better team. I don't really rate West Ham too highly, especially away from home. Like the look of QPR DNB at 1.73

Radonman

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

United 1.77 on exchanges was too good to turn down to win in Romania.

United's squad for tomorrow

"Carrick, Scholes and Giggs are left out of the squad. Vidic, Smalling, Jones, Valencia and Young are either injured or not fully fit and also stayed at home.

De Gea, Lindegaard; Buttner, Evans, Evra, Ferdinand, M. Keane, Rafael, Wootton; Anderson, Cleverley, Fletcher, Lingard, Nani, Powell, Tunnicliffe; Hernandez, Kagawa, Rooney, van Persie, Welbeck."

Looks very attack minded but Utd have not scored more than 2 away since 2010 - may be the way to go as CFR have already conceeded 14 in their own league so far, Utd to win 2-0 gonna wait on teams though

Just a word of caution CFR did win @ Braga 2-0 in first round but by all accounts they were dominated by Braga - two shots on goal and two goals

The_Kew_Tour

Radonman wrote: »

United's squad for tomorrow

"Carrick, Scholes and Giggs are left out of the squad. Vidic, Smalling, Jones, Valencia and Young are either injured or not fully fit and also stayed at home.

De Gea, Lindegaard; Buttner, Evans, Evra, Ferdinand, M. Keane, Rafael, Wootton; Anderson, Cleverley, Fletcher, Lingard, Nani, Powell, Tunnicliffe; Hernandez, Kagawa, Rooney, van Persie, Welbeck."

Looks very attack minded but Utd have not scored more than 2 away since 2010 - may be the way to go as CFR have already conceeded 14 in their own league so far, Utd to win 2-0 gonna wait on teams though

Just a word of caution CFR did win @ Braga 2-0 in first round but by all accounts they were dominated by Braga - two shots on goal and two goals

Oh I know, but I have watched them couple of times and not been impressed Thats not to say they wont get result.

But Value wise this is good bet imo. and im not fan of backing odds on.

babymanval

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Oh I know, but I have watched them couple of times and not been impressed Thats not to say they wont get result.

But Value wise this is good bet imo. and im not fan of backing odds on.

I don't see how anyone can extrapolate anything but a win for Utd tomorrow. Cluj had a hail Mary fluke in their first CL group match (35% possession and 4 shots, to Braga's 65% and 24 shots). The difference between Braga and Utd is Rooney/RVP. Utd match win by at least 2 here, solid multiple builder imo.

SteelyDanJalapeno

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Some selections for today :

FC Haka v HJK Helsinki - HJK win & over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 8/10

HJK top of the league scoring plenty of goals, averaging over 3 goals a game, Haka complete opposite, bottom of the league conceding plenty averaging 3.1 goals a game.

MSV Duisburg v Hertha Berlin - Hertha Berlin win @ 2.00 6/10

Berlin on good form undefeated in there last 5 games picking up 13 points from 15, Duisburg sitting on the bottom of the league on an awful run scoring only 3 goals in 8 games, conceding 17.

Drogheda United v Shelbourne - Drogheda over 1.5 goals @ 1.90 5/10

Drogs score an average 2 goals per game this season and can go 2nd in the league with a win, gonna take the better option of the goals market thou as Shels are well capable of grabbing a point from this, that being said Shels should have weakened squad tonight.

St Patricks v UCD - St. Pats win & over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 7/10

UCD games have a habit of going over lately, St.Pats should win if they want to keep the pressure on up the top of the league. 2-1 or 3-1 probably, BTTS also good.

Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel Aviv - Maccabi asian (-1) handicap @ 2.10 5/10

Maccabi have cleared the handicap in there last few games, they're on a run of 4 straight wins and they should make number 5 against Beer Sheva, They scored 4 in both home and away legs last year against them.

Jonkopings Sodra v Halmstad - Halmstad over 1.5 goals 1.75 7/10

Both teams average well over 2 goals each per game but I cant see much value in the match goals market, gone for Halmstad over 1.5 here, they've scored an average of 2.8 goals in they're last 5 games and are the most in form club in the league. Halmstad win and over 3.5 could also be tried, odds are very big thou.

Looking good for 6 losers, ****in hate mondays

edit, the Irish bets come in to repair some damage

Vanbis

Very tempted to go -1 on Barcelona and Manutd which is currently 6/1 on PP. I'll wait until the team news first.

Radonman

Vanbis wrote: »

Very tempted to go -1 on Barcelona and Manutd which is currently 6/1 on PP. I'll wait until the team news first.

You could even add in Chelsea @ evens and Juventus @ 6/4 there too (Shakhtar were poor against Nords and Juventus are flying atm):D

Two Shots in the dark tomorrow - just to add some interest on a busy night. There have been tonnes of goals in the Championship so far this season so over 1.5 goals in each game tomorrow @ 11/1(i'm leaving out Cardiff/Birmingham - couple of 1-0's each lately)
And over 0.5 first half goals @ 13/1 again without Cardiff/Birmingham

Fowler87

Ya might have had a few losers TB but I took overs double @ 2/1 in your Finnish and Pats/UCD selections so cheers for that!

babymanval

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Looking good for 6 losers, ****in hate mondays

edit, the Irish bets come in to repair some damage

Yeah I got bashed a bit on the Helsinki/Halmstad matches after seein your reasoning earlier. Although I broke even with an over 2.5 goals double on Helsinki and QPR matches, so no harm!

mrdmb

a bet for 2moro's afternoon in the AFC champions league

Guangzho Evergrande(china) vs Al ittihad (saudi)

i'll be taking 2 bets : the chinese team to win at 8/13 and the chinese team ht/ft at 6/4

simply they r one of the best teams in asia at the moment with Marcello lippi as the coach having loads of pressures at present ..and usually the Saudi teams dont do well for the last few years when they play away in the east part of Asia....though the chinese side might miss one of their Brazilian strikers..

Headshot

strange odds drifted on barca -1 AH

Headshot

Iv gone for
Barcelona-1.0 @ 2.075
Under 2.5 @ 19/20 in the Celtic game
Doubles, 1 bet * €21.00 To Win 63.97

Strange happenings tonight.Barca are up and down. I think Benfica are the ideal team to face barca tbh. They wont have 11 men behind the ball I feel. Barca are against Madrid at the weekend so maybe that's why the odds are up and down

Now I never do unders, I particularly hate the bet but I felt it was a worth a shot in this game because I can see Celtic being very defensive. Now the stats are against me in this game but the home team will be missing players too so who knows

tip74

Derry City v Dundalk FC
Derry boss Declan Devine has targeted Sunday’s Cup semi final as a crucial game in the club’s season, and may rest a number of players tonight. Due to injuries and suspensions Derry City will miss Higgins (26/1 m), Molloy (21/0 m), McLaughlin (22/9 f), Brolly (5/1 m) and Patterson (13/5 f).
pick X2

Backstreet Moyes

Bristol City every home game has gone over 4 goals.
Milwall every away game has gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 4/5.

Cardiff have won 4 out of 4 at home beating Huddersfield, Wolves, Leeds and Blackpool 3-0 last weekend all teams in the top half.
Birmingham have 1 won away out of 4 suprisingly against the league leaders. But Cardiff look strong at home.
Cardiff 5/6.

Burnley at home 3 of 4 games gone over 2.5.
Sheff Wed 3 of 4 away games gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 4/6.

Bolton 2 of 4 home games gone over 2.5.
Leeds all 4 away game gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 8/11.

Brentford won last 3 games at home.
Shrewsbury winless away from home including a draw at team 2nd from bottom their last away game.
Brentford 5/6.

Only a quick glance using the soccer stats tracker. Now turn attentions to the champions league games.

BettorAssist

What do ye think of Lazio in the Europa league?

Is Falcao fit?

Cheers.

Lasagna Diarra

I know I said no more bets for me this week but this is too good to pass.

Under 2.5 in Ventspils vs Liepajas Metalurgs @ 1.53

We have once again a big game in Latvia. Ventspils (4th) and Liepajas (2nd) are level on points. Ventspils' last 5 games vs teams from the top 4 have gone under 1.5. The last two games between these two teams finished 1-0 for the home team.

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/latvia/futbola-klubs-ventspils/

Fowler87

Nuts102 wrote: »

Bristol City every home game has gone over 4 goals.
Milwall every away game has gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 4/5.

Cardiff have won 4 out of 4 at home beating Huddersfield, Wolves, Leeds and Blackpool 3-0 last weekend all teams in the top half.
Birmingham have 1 won away out of 4 suprisingly against the league leaders. But Cardiff look strong at home.
Cardiff 5/6.

Burnley at home 3 of 4 games gone over 2.5.
Sheff Wed 3 of 4 away games gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 4/6.

Bolton 2 of 4 home games gone over 2.5.
Leeds all 4 away game gone over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 8/11.

Brentford won last 3 games at home.
Shrewsbury winless away from home including a draw at team 2nd from bottom their last away game.
Brentford 5/6.

Only a quick glance using the soccer stats tracker. Now turn attentions to the champions league games.

Another couple I picked out from the tracker is Rochdale/Bradford @ evens and Yeovil/Pompey @ 10/11.

Have gone for the above along with Bristol/Millwall @ 4/5 in a treble.

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

Celtic away in the CL stats

Looks horrible but the only times they get something, it is in Eastern Europe/Moscow

To add a little to those stats, the times they actually got some points were matches in the qualifying rounds.
In the group/later stages they managed to get 1 point in 20 matches, against Barca of all teams.

babymanval

I'm never fully comfortable with the H2H form logic in football, especially at top level. Like, teams chop and change players/managers every 2-3 years, you're basically talking about a different team when you post a ream of historic results between teams.

I am open to constructed argument on this, but is this "tippers'" main go-to? I'd much rather look at current momentum, upcoming fixtures, injuries/suspensions etc. I guess all of the above is all part of a bigger calculation?

The_Kew_Tour

babymanval wrote: »

I'm never fully comfortable with the H2H form logic in football, especially at top level. Like, teams chop and change players/managers every 2-3 years, you're basically talking about a different team when you post a ream of historic results between teams.

I am open to constructed argument on this, but is this "tippers'" main go-to? I'd much rather look at current momentum, upcoming fixtures, injuries/suspensions etc. I guess all of the above is all part of a bigger calculation?

+1

Also if you have not watched both teams recently you really should not bet either.

Stats only cover so much.

bradlente

magherakid wrote: »

One for tomorrow night
Port Vale v Dagenham & Redbridge
Tom Pope anytime 11/10
Top goalscorer in the league 2 with 9 goals

Like the look of this.Charlie Austin 2.3@365 to score anytime is another,11 goals in 10 games.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Some selections for today, p*ss poor Monday, forgetting about it and moving on :

Benfica v Barcelona - Both teams to score @ 1.72 8/10

Anybody watching Barcelona this season will know how dodgy they are at the back, still fantastic going forward, but very goal leaky, conceding 6 in their last 4 away from home. Benfica have scored 13 in their last 5 home games, No big team news yet, Barca have Madrid the weekend, so as HS has pointed out the odds are jumping up and down, I personally see them trying to kill the game off as early as possible to take Messi, Xavi and another off. This should let them exposed in there own half.

Spartak Moscow v Celtic - Spartak Moscow Asian (-0.5, -1) @ 1.950 8/10

So this game has been discussed a fair bit over the last few pages, my thoughts are along the same as Inforfun's, I wouldn't think Celtic will have any chance here, as posted only 1 point away from home in 20 champions league games, I also dont think Celtic have been great this season in particular they have been very lucky in a couple of domestic results and they are not taking the league as expected. Travelling to Russia is one of the harder places to get a result in, Spartak are on particularly good home form with 6 straight wins. I see 2 - 0 tonight.


Some others I fancied but will stay away from after yesterday,

Huddersfield V Leceister - Both teams to score @ 1.65
Bolton V Leeds - Bolton over 1.5 goals @ 1.90

inforfun

babymanval wrote: »

I'm never fully comfortable with the H2H form logic in football, especially at top level. Like, teams chop and change players/managers every 2-3 years, you're basically talking about a different team when you post a ream of historic results between teams.

I am open to constructed argument on this, but is this "tippers'" main go-to? I'd much rather look at current momentum, upcoming fixtures, injuries/suspensions etc. I guess all of the above is all part of a bigger calculation?

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

+1

Also if you have not watched both teams recently you really should not bet either.

Stats only cover so much.

Not disagreeing.
But i think in this case, Celtic - Spartak it is safe to say Celtic got weaker in the last few years and Spartak stronger.

Based on stats only you might want to take a bit on Ajax to beat Real tomorrow based on their H2H

P10 W4 D1 L5 GS8 GC16

So they only lost 1 more than they won vs Real. Trouble is for them, they lost the last 4 matches with 12-0 goal difference

So yes, stats are nice but common sense needs to be used.

The_Kew_Tour

inforfun wrote: »

Not disagreeing.
But i think in this case, Celtic - Spartak it is safe to say Celtic got weaker in the last few years and Spartak stronger.

Based on stats only you might want to take a bit on Ajax to beat Real tomorrow based on their H2H

P10 W4 D1 L5 GS8 GC16

So they only lost 1 more than they won vs Real. Trouble is for them, they lost the last 4 matches with 12-0 goal difference

So yes, stats are nice but common sense needs to be used.

Not seen Spartak this season so no idea. Your logic sounds solid so GL.

Common sense should always be in front of your mind I agree.

robertowjr

BTTS - Ajax v Madrid
Barcelona -1

double @ 3/1

grohlisagod

I think H2H records are very useful when two teams are fairly equal in quality. For example, Cardiff have a brilliant record against Leeds so I'd always fancy Cardiff in that game. When there is an obvious recent pattern I think it can be helpful in finding value.

But as has been said it shouldn't be the main criteria.

babymanval

robertowjr wrote: »

BTTS - Ajax v Madrid
Barcelona -1

double @ 3/1

I'd almost be more inclined to do that the other way around, for the above -12 reason, as well as the fact that Benfica could well score against barca due to being an open attacking team.

robertowjr

babymanval wrote: »

I'd almost be more inclined to do that the other way around, for the above -12 reason, as well as the fact that Benfica could well score against barca due to being an open attacking team.

the odds are with you, double Madrid -1 and BTTS on Barca match @ 2.74.

Messi hasn't scored in two games now, I've a feeling he'll show up tonight.
And we all know how dodgy Madrid defense is so I'm hoping Ajax can do the job there.