The Football Tips Thread v3

slattsteen

OnTheCounter wrote: »

I dont think anyone needs to be told that Messi is likely to score in a given match at odds on.

The markets that special was on should never be backed. Overround is massive.

So did u back him? or did u do the special in powers where they were giving money back if he scored last goal? Easy money

The_Kew_Tour

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Half right, anytime goalscorer is a great market and is a money maker for many of us. I had three a.g doubles on Saturday evening, ranging from 3s to 10/11 selections, all great value for their respective records and given who they were playing, Ronaldo at evens/ or 11/10 on Sunday was buying money for anyone that backed him.

The anytime score market is actually where one of big major bookies made there most profit last year.

Fair play to you on it being good for you and few others hope that continues, but if you look at the amount of players who were evens or less you would of made loss at weekend had you back them blindly.

RVP and Tevez come to mind.

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody fancy anything tonight like betting on the Blue Square Premier. Just under 10/1.

Mansfield 4/6
Dartford/Telford Utd btts 8/13
Woking/ Cambridge over 2.5 4/7
Gateshead/Macclesfield over 2.5 8/13
Nuneaton/Hereford over 2.5 4/7

ben.schlomo

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

The anytime score market is actually where one of big major bookies made there most profit last year.

Fair play to you on it being good for you and few others hope that continues, but if you look at the amount of players who were evens or less you would of made loss at weekend had you back them blindly.

RVP and Tevez come to mind.

And the same could be said of the win/draw/win market, i didnt see too many people tipping up Mervue, Sd Galway or Stirling Albion in any trebles at the weekend, its all about finding what you think to be value and sticking with it. Im not saying a.g is the be all and end all as i dont win every time but i firmly believe there is value to be had there if you search it out and its by no means one of the worst markets to bet in. While i like it, anytime card betting is a far more volatile market, i also dont bet on things like odd/even goals as they are lotteries with little or no statistical backup.

Anyway on topic, Tom Pope (Port Vale) 7/4 anytime tonight, he became Vales fastest ever 10 goal striker at the weekend and is red hot, they are away to a Walsall side who have conceded 7 in 6 home games, Pope has 6 in 5 away. Walsall also expected to rotate while Vale have only made 3(i think) changes as their team is named.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

This should be a banker, I'm thinking of putting the winnings from that Bastia bet on it, not sure if the risk is worth it though...
England to win to nil (vs San Marino)
Holland to win to nil (vs Andorra)
Moldova (away to San Marino)
Bosnia (vs Lithuania)
@ 1.72

Slightly worried about Moldova, they won 2-0 in San Marino 2 years ago and it's pros vs really bad amateurs, but San Marino might finally call up the San Marino U21 keeper who's really good...

He's not in the squad...going with that bet then, slightly bigger stake than the Bastia bet, hoping there will be no upsets

The_Kew_Tour

ben.schlomo wrote: »

And the same could be said of the win/draw/win market, i didnt see too many people tipping up Mervue, Sd Galway or Stirling Albion in any trebles at the weekend, its all about finding what you think to be value and sticking with it. Im not saying a.g is the be all and end all as i dont win every time but i firmly believe there is value to be had there if you search it out and its by no means one of the worst markets to bet in. While i like it, anytime card betting is a far more volatile market, i also dont bet on things like odd/even goals as they are lotteries with little or no statistical backup.

Your missing out on one huge factor here. Overround.

In a win/draw/win market you can get the best overround to between 105-110%.

In Anytime Goalscorer markets when you consider that there is between 2.6-2.8 goals in PL (varies league to league) the overround comes to anywhere up to 200%.

You can get some value on this market, but most is on exchanges and on Midfielders.(even defenders)

Kevin Pullein from Racing Post and Racing and Football Outlook did fantastic piece on this last season. Not one striker would of made you profit last season backing them at best odds. His research went into even asking something like 35 people to back a player every week in PL who they sought as value in this market. At end of season nobody came away with profit.

Of course there flew slights hitches in any research and his was no different, but if I was looking for long term profit this be one market I would not go into.

Thats not to say you should stop. If your making money from it better look to you and I hope you win plenty more.

Backstreet Moyes

Had a Euro left online done an accume on 3 horses who won and 2 teams for later. Waiting on Mansfield and Southend for €200. I know it was only a euro but would anybody lay this off or can i even lay it off might just leave it.

PaddyTheNth

ben.schlomo wrote: »

.... while Vale have only made 3(i think) changes as their team is named.

Not saying that it is a bad bet, just fyi...source article

MICKY Adams will give his fringe set the chance to shine when Port Vale go for a club-record sixth away win in a row tonight.

The manager will make the maximum five changes allowed to his team for the Johnstone's Paint Trophy tie at League One Walsall.."The league is our priority," said Adams. "We're having to make changes, either because of injuries or because people are close to suspension. I make no apologies for that

DoctaDee

Not having much idea on the Blue Square Premier I did a little bit of reasearch on Soccerway and the one match that stands out in the overs market is Woking v Cambridge. They would seem to cover +2.5 handily, also goin back over their respective home & away records for the last 4-5 games the +1.5 1st half goals market is also very appealing.

ben.schlomo

PaddyTheNth wrote: »

Not saying that it is a bad bet, just fyi...source article

Cheers, the team was named yesterday though, think the ould staffordshire post or whatever it was were out of the loop. He aint done the business yet either.:rolleyes:

ben.schlomo

ben.schlomo wrote: »

And the same could be said of the win/draw/win market, i didnt see too many people tipping up Mervue, Sd Galway or Stirling Albion in any trebles at the weekend, its all about finding what you think to be value and sticking with it. Im not saying a.g is the be all and end all as i dont win every time but i firmly believe there is value to be had there if you search it out and its by no means one of the worst markets to bet in. While i like it, anytime card betting is a far more volatile market, i also dont bet on things like odd/even goals as they are lotteries with little or no statistical backup.

Anyway on topic, Tom Pope (Port Vale) 7/4 anytime tonight, he became Vales fastest ever 10 goal striker at the weekend and is red hot, they are away to a Walsall side who have conceded 7 in 6 home games, Pope has 6 in 5 away. Walsall also expected to rotate while Vale have only made 3(i think) changes as their team is named.

There he is, a reliable gent of late.

Blatter

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Your missing out on one huge factor here. Overround.

In a win/draw/win market you can get the best overround to between 105-110%.

In Anytime Goalscorer markets when you consider that there is between 2.6-2.8 goals in PL (varies league to league) the overround comes to anywhere up to 200%.

You can get some value on this market, but most is on exchanges and on Midfielders.(even defenders)

Kevin Pullein from Racing Post and Racing and Football Outlook did fantastic piece on this last season. Not one striker would of made you profit last season backing them at best odds. His research went into even asking something like 35 people to back a player every week in PL who they sought as value in this market. At end of season nobody came away with profit.

Of course there flew slights hitches in any research and his was no different, but if I was looking for long term profit this be one market I would not go into.

Thats not to say you should stop. If your making money from it better look to you and I hope you win plenty more.

I find the anytime goalscorer markets quite profitable too tbh.

It's always important to back a player that's in form, or looks to be coming into form and playing against a team that's likely going to ship at least 2 goals.

For example I got 5/4 on Ronaldo at the weekend. He was coming off the back of two hattricks, had scored in his last 5 clasicos and Barca had huge defensive issues. I thought that was value.

Similarly I had Jelavic anytime v Wigan at 15/8. Wigan are always likely to ship goals, whether home or away, Everton were playing really well and Jelavic scored 2 goals and was mom in his last game.

A few weeks ago, I heard that Gervinho was going to be playing up top through the middle at home to Southampton, I got the score/win double at 5/2. He ended up scoring twice. It was a bit like in the Euros, for the first Spain game against Italy, when I saw the lineup I saw Fabregas would be playing as a false number 9 and got 4/1 on him to score anytime - he did.

At the weekend I got 2/1 on Lambert anytime because I figured that Fulham don't travel well and Southampton have plenty of goals in them. Lambert has scored goals regularly enough this season too. It didn't happen, but I can accept that because It came very close to happening as he really should have buried an easy chance he had and he had a few other sniffs as well. IMO he would have had a greater chance of scoring in that game than 33.33% (2/1), I'd have had it closer to around 45% (6/5), maybe a bit less but certainly not 2/1.

There is definitely value to be found in the market when you consider all factors. The position the player is playing, how poor the opposition's defense is (do they have injuries?), how much of a goalscoring streak/form he's on, what kind of tactics both sides is likely to use (can help determine how many goals are likely to be scored in match), did his team play midweek (or did he?), is he just back from the other side of the world after playing an international? etc.

I agree that if you blindly back favorites or players that you've done little research on, you will definitely lose money but it can be quite profitable if you put the work in.

The_Kew_Tour

Blatter wrote: »

I find the anytime goalscorer markets quite profitable too tbh.

It's always important to back a player that's in form, or looks to be coming into form and he's playing against a team that's likely going to ship at least 2 goals.

For example I got 5/4 on Ronaldo at the weekend. He was coming off the back of two hattricks, had scored in his last 5 clasicos and Barca had huge defensive issues. I thought that was value.

Similarly I had Jelavic anytime v Wigan at 15/8. Wigan are always likely to ship goals, whether home or away, Everton were playing really well and Jelavic scored 2 goals and was mom in his last game.

A few weeks ago, I heard that Gervinho was going to be playing up top through the middle at home to Southampton, I got the score/win double at 5/2. He ended up scoring twice. It was a bit like in the Euros, for the first Spain game against Italy, when I saw the lineup I saw Fabregas would be playing as a false number 9 and got 4/1 on him to score anytime - he did.

There is definitely value in the market when you consider all factors. The position the player is playing, how poor the opposition's defense is (do they have injuries?), how much of a goalscoring streak/form he's on, what kind of tactics both sides is likely to use (can help determine how many goals are likely to be scored in match), did his team play midweek (or did he?), is he just back from the other side of the world after playing an international? etc.

I agree that if you blindly back favorites or players that you've done little research on, you will definitely lose money but it can be quite profitable if you put the work in.

Good for you and hope your good research pays off. To me nothing more rewarding then when a bet comes in from bit of hard study.

But, you hit the nail in head when you said you do research.

Too many people just think they see value, but on the whole its really a fair price if no value at all. I think Ba and Messi price at weekend were spot on for instance. One worked out and one didnt so some will argue and some agree.

I just think its a bet people who dont really put time and effort into finding the good price should stay away from it purely on basis that percentages are in such huge advantage to the bookie.

In other markets where overround is much lower there better chance to save you money in long run.

I will state again though that exchanges are your friend if your backing in this market. Take Valencia for United. In few games last year he was around 3/1-7/2 to score in certain games, but on exchanges you could get 5 or 6/1.

If your backing the likes of Mata, Hazard, Cazorla, Nani of this world Exchanges will have much better value.

Lasagna Diarra

Some crazy odds in the England vs San Marino game, Rooney to score 2+ goals @ 1.95, Defoe to score 2+ goals @ 2.10! Now we just have to wait for the line ups to see who's starting up front...

Dolph Starbeam

Ukraine, Croatia and Switzerland @ 3/1 will be my only bet.

rossit

anybody got any views on czech rep u 19 v nothern ireland, the czech are 9/5 -1

mailburner

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

People are jumping the gun just like Czech Republic back in 2006 after Ireland lost 5-2 only 4 days previous.

This was one of my biggest bets ever
the price was evens or around that, was shellshocked..
that's why i won't be jumping on the -1 this time despite
how good it looks

DoctaDee

rossit wrote: »

anybody got any views on czech rep u 19 v nothern ireland, the czech are 9/5 -1

I'm unsure on this Rossit. But what do I know lost a nice bet on Greece goaless today...but anyways the Czechs aren't prolific goalscorers only 4 in last 6..and whatever the merits of NI U19's they do score goals so more than likely looking at Czechs having to score 3. So I'm not sure tbh

Headshot

For anyone thinking of betting on santos, Neymar isnt playing tonight. Gone to Sweden.

The_Kew_Tour

mailburner wrote: »

This was one of my biggest bets ever
the price was evens or around that, was shellshocked..
that's why i won't be jumping on the -1 this time despite
how good it looks

They went from 6/4 into 4/5 in space of few days. Only Celtic Bookmakers went Evens or better for game.

Bookies cleaned up that night.

BettorAssist

Holland without Robben and Sneidjer.

Van Persie not to start first friendly.

skybhoy121

Anyone find any good value on the internationals

Headshot

can someone tell me why the odds have drifted on under 2.5 goals in the santos game? I dont understand since alot of the best players are gone playing with Brazil or injured

Botofoga are brutal of late and santos are nothing without Neymar

inforfun

BettorAssist wrote: »

Holland without Robben and Sneidjer.

Van Persie not to start first friendly.

It isnt a friendly against Andorra.
And based on the other 4 times Holland played against them, it will not be friendly at all.
Of course all 4 were won by Holland but the results were 3-0/4-0 2x and 5-0

This will more than likely not be another 11-0 like they managed against San Marino. Where San Marino usually tries not to injure their opponents are Andorra just annoying and are out to hurt people.

Red card wouldnt surprise me at all in this match. Last time they met, Philip Cocu of all people got sent off after 36 minutes (2005).

For that reason i think Van Persie will not play, first of all to to keep him in 1 piece, 2nd of all not to risk his temper against these kind of opponents.
He will be playing against Romania though.

If you are going for goals on this one or goal scorers better wait till i find a definite line up.

keysersoze0330

skybhoy121 wrote: »

Anyone find any good value on the internationals

Germany -1 5/4

squirrelohara

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

Germany -1 5/4

Ya it seems to be great value. I cant imagine anything else but a good beating for use. 3 or 4 nil would seem about right

Headshot

So Robbie is out of the game now. - 1 looking better by the minute

Fowler87

Headshot wrote: »

So Robbie is out of the game now. - 1 looking better by the minute

I don't think him playing would have an effect anyhow on Ireland getting near Germany. The inclusion of a better player in Long will have more impact. Either way Germany should coast

rossit

if your looking at germany -1 it would have been better with keane in he is dead weight but still see this as a great bet i fear for ireland if the germans get a early goal plus i have a bad feel macshane will make a appearance. he has great heart but he is crap at football

BettorAssist

Anybody see value in Belgium to beat Scotland? Lukaku injured apparently.

Looking at all the win-draw-win markets the biggest value imo is Columbia to beat Paraguay. What do ye think?