The Football Tips Thread v3

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Neymar will start

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BettorAssist wrote: »

For those reasons the only premier league match that holds a genuine betting interest for me this weekend is West Ham v Southampton.

over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
both teams to score @ 4/7

I would be interested to hear from some of ye which bet do ye think is better value and how you go about deciding on the fair/true odds.

Step up, step up.

I like the look of Carroll to score anytime @ 6/4 in that game. I've seen him play twice for West Ham so far, against Fulham and Arsenal. Against Fulham he assisted twice and looked a real threat but came off injured, and then against Arsenal he was excellent and could have easily scored. He's playing well for them and Southampton at home is a perfect fixture for him to get off the mark. All of West Ham's attacks are centered around him.

On the question about deciding on fair odds, I think you need to estimate in your head the % of something happening and compare it to what price the bookies are offering. For example, Carroll anytime is 6/4 as mentioned, so the bookies are giving a price that reflects a 40% chance of that happening (4/6+4)(100). I personally think there's a higher chance of that happening, maybe around 45% or slightly higher, so I see that 6/4 as value.

The other things I like the look of this weekend are;

Mata to be Sky Sports Man of the match @ 14/1 (betvictor). He's been in great form recently and had a nice break from the internationals as he wasn't in Spain's squad, so he should be relatively fresh. Tottenham away is a tough game, but 14/1 is too big a price imo.

The under 2.5 goals in the same game @ 1/1 is another thing that interests me. Yes both teams are attacking but that doesn't always translate into a goal fest. The main reason for my thinking behind this bet is that it's a 12.45 kick off and it's directly after internationals. This has resulted in many a game being flat and lacklustre before which of course decreases the likelihood of goals. Also, I think both teams would be satisfied with a point in this game.


And finally the other bet I have my eye on for the weekend is Giroud to score anytime v Norwich and Arsenal to win @ 12/5. I need to wait until it's confirmed he starts beforehand though. I think Norwich are pretty awful this year and are likely to concede goals. Giroud had finally gotten his first league goal for Arsenal against West Ham, and is just coming off the back of scoring an injury time equaliser against Spain so he's going to be confident about scoring against Norwich, and I think Arsenal will win the game pretty handily.

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Headshot wrote: »

Santos v Atletico MG

I went for overs because I feel with Neymar back and MG needing a win, it should be an open game. Now its not 100% confirmed he'll play but Neymar usually plays straight after internationals (it will hurt him in the long run)


Portuguesa v Flamengo

I decided to pick goal line here because I wasnt to confident in overs but when I read that Flamengo and Portuguesa will have defensive concerns (players injured or suspended) I thought it was worth a shot

Santiago Morning v Universidad De Chile
Home team is a division below De Chile. The first game ended 3-3. So im hoping for another goal fest and just did the goal line as a precaution

Its a treble that I wouldnt be that confident in compared to last nights Argentina bet but I have a bit of money to play with so worth a shot

sorry for anyone who followed that

You can blame that awful crap Vagner Love. Shocking, shocking excuse for a player

BettorAssist

I would think that you would want to be extremely experienced and knowledagable to simply estimate the possibility of an event occuring in your head, not to mention a junior rainman.

With the win-draw-win markets you can make a rough version of a poisson distribution to help figure out the odds, the same for the goal line market.

Goalscorer markets are far trickier and if you want to have a bet you can convince yourself there is value unless you can show some maths/stats to focus your thinking.

People who try to price up an event themselves have their own techniques which would be interesting to share.

BettorAssist

Headshot wrote: »

sorry for anyone who followed that

You can blame that awful crap Vagner Love. Shocking, shocking excuse for a player

I remember him from his time in Russia. Back then he was very inconsistant but capable of the big performance (but never tried to win the ball or track back - giles and dunphy got me there) but he mainly registers with me for the purple dreadlocks.

DoctaDee

Headshot wrote: »

sorry for anyone who followed that

You can blame that awful crap Vagner Love. Shocking, shocking excuse for a player

Can't be faulted there HS .. I think people appreciate the homework and bet reasoning you do on the games. I did think Portuguesa was gonna be tight anyways. Cheers

Matt_Trakker

Las Palmas Vs Racing

Las Palmas haven't won in a while (last time was over a month ago) but they've scored in every match bar one since then
Racing haven't set the world alight either, but have been scoring regularly.
This is a cup game both teams will want to win, so either BTTS (1.83) or Over 1.5 (1.33)

Cluj play Viitoral Constanta at home.
Cluj have only lost one home game this season (2 away) & that was against Man United in the CL.
Constanta have won once this season, back in September
To win (1.33)
-1 (1.5)

Gonna make doubles out of these.
Las Palmas (O 1.5) & Cluj to win (1.81) &
Las Palmas BTTS & Cluj (-1) (2.74)

Alaska1

I see Bate are playing at 1pm...

Anybody any thoughts on the game ? away to Slavia, who are secind bottom and on an awful run of form. -1 for Bate is 10/11.

Only thing is will Bate rest players due to their Champions League game with Valencia Tuesday ?

billybonds

BettorAssist wrote: »

For those reasons the only premier league match that holds a genuine betting interest for me this weekend is West Ham v Southampton.

over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
both teams to score @ 4/7

I would be interested to hear from some of ye which bet do ye think is better value and how you go about deciding on the fair/true odds.

Step up, step up.

I’d probably go with overs in that match if faced with those two options.

Southampton could score but it’s worth bearing in mind that West Ham have kept 4 clean sheets out of 9 games so far this season. I’d say he will but if Winston Reid plays, it’s more likely that they will keep a clean sheet, he’s been West Ham’s best defender all season. Southampton have goals in them though so btts could easily happen. I’d fancy West Ham to get a few anyway with the way they’re playing of late and especially considering Southampton’s defense against Carroll and Nolan.

Lasagna Diarra

Alaska1 wrote: »

I see Bate are playing at 1pm...

Anybody any thoughts on the game ? away to Slavia, who are secind bottom and on an awful run of form. -1 for Bate is 10/11.

Only thing is will Bate rest players due to their Champions League game with Valencia Tuesday ?

Several BATE players played for Belarus on Tuesday, though it shouldn't be a problem cuz they have a pretty big squad. I was looking at BATE-1 but I see Slavia managed to get a draw at home vs Shakhtyor who are 2nd in the league...

Alaska1

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Several BATE players played for Belarus on Tuesday, though it shouldn't be a problem cuz they have a pretty big squad. I was looking at BATE-1 but I see Slavia managed to get a draw at home vs Shakhtyor who are 2nd in the league...

True, I have noticed that the -1 has come in on 4 of the last 5 Slavia games, and some bad beatings in that time.Be hard to gauge I guess with Bate losing their last league game also, just wondering would the team picked justify the -1 ?

Lasagna Diarra

Alaska1 wrote: »

True, I have noticed that the -1 has come in on 4 of the last 5 Slavia games, and some bad beatings in that time.Be hard to gauge I guess with Bate losing their last league game also, just wondering would the team picked justify the -1 ?

Just saw the line ups, BATE have almost the same team as in their last game (that 1-0 loss).

Alaska1

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Just saw the line ups, BATE have almost the same team as in their last game (that 1-0 loss).

Point to prove hopefully ? Bate odds gone in, 1/5 for the win now and 4/5 -1.

bradlente

When do card and corner markets usually pop up for the weekend games?Looking around this morning but no sign of anything yet.

Lasagna Diarra

Alaska1 wrote: »

Point to prove hopefully ? Bate odds gone in, 1/5 for the win now and 4/5 -1.

Yea probably, they thrashed some team 5-1 before the Bayern game, maybe it'll be the same here.

Lasagna Diarra

I'm going big on Marseille @ 1.65 (vs Troyes)

Troyes are decimated by injuries and suspensions: Rincon (Def, 8/0), N'sakala (Def, 8/0) and Thiago (Mid, 6/0) are suspended; Faussurier (mid 7/1) and Grax (att 6/1) are injured, while about 7 other players are doubtful for this game. But I don't even care about that cuz Troyes are an awful team and Marseille should beat them regardless of who's missing.

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BTTS in Ajaccio vs Bastia @ 1.70

It's a Corsican derby (Corsica is a tiny island south of France), there's a strong rivalry between these two teams and it should be a really good game. Bastia play good attacking football but their defense is 3rd division material so I'm almost certain they're going to concede. Ajaccio's coach is a pretty defensive one and Ajaccio kept a clean sheet at home vs PSG but... it's a derby and I doubt Bastia will fail to score. Bastia beat Ajaccio 2-1 in a pre season friendly this summer.

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Marseille -1AH looks much better

babymanval

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I'm going big on Marseille @ 1.65 (vs Troyes)

Troyes are decimated by injuries and suspensions: Rincon (Def, 8/0), N'sakala (Def, 8/0) and Thiago (Mid, 6/0) are suspended; Faussurier (mid 7/1) and Grax (att 6/1) are injured, while about 7 other players are doubtful for this game. But I don't even care about that cuz Troyes are an awful team and Marseille should beat them regardless of who's missing.

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BTTS in Ajaccio vs Bastia @ 1.70

It's a Corsican derby (Corsica is a tiny island south of France), there's a strong rivalry between these two teams and it should be a really good game. Bastia play good attacking football but their defense is 3rd division material so I'm almost certain they're going to concede. Ajaccio's coach is a pretty defensive one and Ajaccio kept a clean sheet at home vs PSG but... it's a derby and I doubt Bastia will fail to score. Bastia beat Ajaccio 2-1 in a pre season friendly this summer.

Top reconn!

BKC

What do you make of this for a safe enough treble at the weekend?

Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo @1.10.
Bayern Munich to beat Fortuna Dusseldorf @1.30 [Away]
Liverpool to beat Reading @1.33.

I know nothing with Liverpool is ever safe but I reckon they will win. Reading are poor and Liverpool have been playing well enough.

Treble comes to around @1.95.

BettorAssist

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I'm going big on Marseille @ 1.65 (vs Troyes)

Troyes are decimated by injuries and suspensions: Rincon (Def, 8/0), N'sakala (Def, 8/0) and Thiago (Mid, 6/0) are suspended; Faussurier (mid 7/1) and Grax (att 6/1) are injured, while about 7 other players are doubtful for this game. But I don't even care about that cuz Troyes are an awful team and Marseille should beat them regardless of who's missing.

There are a few bookies, including Ladbrokes @ 1.8

keysersoze0330

BKC wrote: »

What do you make of this for a safe enough treble at the weekend?

Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo @1.10.
Bayern Munich to beat Fortuna Dusseldorf @1.30 [Away]
Liverpool to beat Reading @1.33.

I know nothing with Liverpool is ever safe but I reckon they will win. Reading are poor and Liverpool have been playing well enough.

Treble comes to around @1.95.

Madrid and Bayern look good, but personally id be looking for a replacement for the third leg of the treble

P_1

Nocerina vs Lecce KO 7: 45

Serria C? against Serria A but relegated for match fixing, Lecce @ 10/11

Fowler87

1.33 is a terrible price on Liverpool. Hate to admit it but 12/5 Reading double chance is great value considering the home record

JoeCole26

pithater1 wrote: »

Nocerina vs Lecce KO 7: 45

Serria C? against Serria A but relegated for match fixing, Lecce @ 10/11

So your thinking Leece? I'm looking at the same game-would like to hear people's opinions.

Benfica (-1) also tonight 10/11

P_1

JoeCole26 wrote: »

So your thinking Leece? I'm looking at the same game-would like to hear people's opinions.

Benfica (-1) also tonight 10/11

Aye on a treble of Lecce and Gloucester and Bath in the Rugby @ 1.25/1

JoeCole26

pithater1 wrote: »

Aye on a treble of Lecce and Gloucester and Bath in the Rugby @ 1.25/1

I don't know anything about Leece, what league they in? How are they going? Thanks

Matt_Trakker

fookin cluj
1-0 down against a team with 10 players who haven't won since september

P_1

JoeCole26 wrote: »

I don't know anything about Leece, what league they in? How are they going? Thanks

Down near the bottom rung of Italian football, 6/7 so far this season though

Headshot

Fowler87 wrote: »

1.33 is a terrible price on Liverpool. Hate to admit it but 12/5 Reading double chance is great value considering the home record

Add that all the travelling Suarez has done and Gerrard playing just yesterday. The double chance Stoke stands out

De Dannan

BKC wrote: »

What do you make of this for a safe enough treble at the weekend?

Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo @1.10.
Bayern Munich to beat Fortuna Dusseldorf @1.30 [Away]
Liverpool to beat Reading @1.33.

I know nothing with Liverpool is ever safe but I reckon they will win. Reading are poor and Liverpool have been playing well enough.

Treble comes to around @1.95.

Liverpool should beat Reading but are very unpredicable
Maybe instead of Liverpool you could get Man United at around 1.3 to beat Stoke at Old Trafford