The Football Tips Thread v3

Avfctom

Right guys any opinons on these bets

Tommorow

Leeds or draw
Hoffenheim or draw
Galatasaray or draw
Bordeaux or draw
2/1 £20

Leeds to win 21/10
Bordeaux to win 5/4
Double £10

Saturday main big bet i like the look of
Chelsea or draw
Man united win
Man city win
Arsenal win
4/1 £100

Austria!

BettorAssist wrote: »

I tend to avoid betting on games where a few players would have been playing internationals as with the higher intensity of internationals, jet lag and fatigue you don't know what to expect.

Are there any stats available on whether teams really do worse after international or mid-week European (as in Champ or Europa leagues) games?

The possibility that this is true is the only thing stopping me from piling onto Man United at home to Stoke@ 1.3. Man United fail to win 1 home game against bottom 10 opposition every season. Stoke are notoriously poor travellers (though, they've done much better away this season but that's only 4 games and one of them was against Liverpool)

BettorAssist

Austria! wrote: »

Are there any stats available on whether teams really do worse after international or mid-week European (as in Champ or Europa leagues) games?

The possibility that this is true is the only thing stopping me from piling onto Man United at home to Stoke@ 1.3. Man United fail to win 1 home game against bottom 10 opposition every season. Stoke are notoriously poor travellers (though, they've done much better away this season but that's only 4 games and one of them was against Liverpool)

Im on the phone now so cant link to any studies but this is well known. Its not even close. If you look at the top teams in the main leagues after champions leagues and internationals they do significently worse than their average points per game over the season. Almost all the teams when playing away directly after those matches do very poorly.

Check out arsenals and tottenhams results away from home last season directly after an international or cl match as they are particularly poor.

For example take the top 5 teams in each of the major european leagues (by standard not current points) and note their odds this weekend. I would say if you layed each of them this weekend at level stakes you would likely come away with at least 15% ROI.

Also for example Real Madrids defence has been crippled with an additional 3 injuries over the break which is another factor to consider.

Gillington

Austria! wrote: »

Are there any stats available on whether teams really do worse after international or mid-week European (as in Champ or Europa leagues) games?

The possibility that this is true is the only thing stopping me from piling onto Man United at home to Stoke@ 1.3. Man United fail to win 1 home game against bottom 10 opposition every season. Stoke are notoriously poor travellers (though, they've done much better away this season but that's only 4 games and one of them was against Liverpool)

I think inforfun linked some research done by an assistant manager or somewhat(my recollection is very vague!?) but teams taking part in midweek European competition only won 40% of weekend games after.

Im hoping someone can explain better or find the link as I cant

Austria!

Found it.

http://worldfootballacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/WFA_Study-on-recovery-days.pdf

inforfun

That is indeed the report i mentioned a few times already.
I dont think it is so much a problem after international games as there are very few tteams that have a 1st 11 completely made up from full international players. But after EL/Cl games it is certainly a factor.

Ajax for example would not have won the Dutch league in the last 2 seasons if they hadnt been eliminated from Eurpean football much earlier than PSV/Twente/AZ (And Feyenoord wouldnt have finished 2nd either last season but i ll forget about little detail )

Matt_Trakker

Cluj really let me down yesterday.
Didn't post this last night but went for a treble in Brazil

Odd were 2.06
& I'd another smaller one on Sao Paulo to win to nil.

.........still annoyed with Cluj, losing to a team with 10 men who hadn't won since Sept :mad:


Today I think there'll be plenty of goals in the Sheff Wednesday & Leeds game. Both have terrible defences but are scoring plenty, so either the O1.5 or O2.5
And home wins for
Kaiserslauten, (undefeated at home, playing a team that hasn't won on the road since April)
Nordsjaelland, (undefeated at home, except for the Chelsea game, playing against a team they've only lost once to in the last 10 years)
Brommapojkarna & Osters both need to win. Osters are top of the league but Bromm need to keep the pressure on.

(5 fold @ 4.46)
with 02.5 in Leeds game changes to (6.13)

tip74

Injuries & suspensions:
Gornik Zabrze v Korona Kielce
Gornik Zabrze: Jonczyk (0/0 m)
Korona Kielce: Vuković (3/0 m), Kuzera (2/0 d), Golański (6/0 d)
pick 1

Grödig v First Vienna
Grödig: Handle (11/0 f)
First Vienna: Hinterseer (12/1 f), Dospel (7/0 d), Pink (8/1 m), Kröpfl (0/0 d), Kropfhofer (0/0 g)
pick 1

Cork City v Dundalk FC
Cork City: Buckley (3/1 d), Lenihan (3/0 m)
Dundalk FC: Griffin (17/4 f), Burns (21/0 d), McDonnell (24/0 m), O’Brien (8/0 m), Woods (4/0 f), McKenna (8/1 f) (all doubtful), Foran (25/0 d), Shanahan (22/5 f), Walsh (21/0 f), Mountney (28/0 m), Osborne (17/0 d)
pick 1

Rosenborg BK v Sandnes Ulf
Rosenborg BK: Bråthen (0/0 g)
Sandnes Ulf: Vindenes (6/0 d), A. Andersen (11/0 m), B. Andersen (14/0 g), Westlye (4/0 m), Haugland (3/0 d)
pick 1

Avfctom

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Cluj really let me down yesterday.
Didn't post this last night but went for a treble in Brazil

Odd were 2.06
& I'd another smaller one on Sao Paulo to win to nil.

.........still annoyed with Cluj, losing to a team with 10 men who hadn't won since Sept :mad:


Today I think there'll be plenty of goals in the Sheff Wednesday & Leeds game. Both have terrible defences but are scoring plenty, so either the O1.5 or O2.5
And home wins for
Kaiserslauten, (undefeated at home, playing a team that hasn't won on the road since April)
Nordsjaelland, (undefeated at home, except for the Chelsea game, playing against a team they've only lost once to in the last 10 years)
Brommapojkarna & Osters both need to win. Osters are top of the league but Bromm need to keep the pressure on.

(5 fold @ 4.46)
with 02.5 in Leeds game changes to (6.13)

After timing

Mannix1888

Thinking of backing Fulham at home to Villa 4/5, Arsenal at Norwich 8/15 and maybe Sunderland at home to Newcastle DNB 4/6.

That Sunderland-Newcastle one on Sunday is 8/11 btts, which might be a better bet.

From the Beeb website:

The two clubs have never played out a goalless draw since the inception of the Premier League, but four of the last eight meetings have ended 1-1.

frat

Fulham (banker of the week) and over 2.5 in the Swansea and C Palace games.
100@5.89

Avfctom

frat wrote: »

Fulham (banker of the week) and over 2.5 in the Swansea and C Palace games.
100@5.89

Hopefully fulham flop;)

Higgytash

Drogheda 9/5 at home to sligo is great value in my opinion ... Sligo won the league last week and hence have nothing really to play for, and from what i hear they were out celebrating all week and cant imagine them being to hyped and ready travelling the other side of the country for this ...

Drogheda have to win tonight for second position and the Europa league spot, its a massive game for them and they really could do with the money europe could generate, they will be really up for this game and have been preparing all week unlike sligo..

Shane St.

Avfctom wrote: »

Hopefully fulham flop;)

what is the point of that post. This is a betting forum not a Villa supporters forum

manual_man

Bate Borisov at 13/5 v Valencia seems great value to me. Am i missing something? They've already beaten Bayern Munich and Lille and are very strong at home. Valencia are generally quite poor away from home

Radonman

Higgytash wrote: »

Drogheda 9/5 at home to sligo is great value in my opinion ... Sligo won the league last week and hence have nothing really to play for, and from what i hear they were out celebrating all week and cant imagine them being to hyped and ready travelling the other side of the country for this ...

Drogheda have to win tonight for second position and the Europa league spot, its a massive game for them and they really could do with the money europe could generate, they will be really up for this game and have been preparing all week unlike sligo..

I'd be careful there as I heard there manager interviewed during the week and he was saying how proud they were of only one loss during the year and they want to win their remaining games - now this is not to say that the sligo boys may still be all hung over:) but it's worth noting

Hulk Hands

Fowler87 wrote: »

1.33 is a terrible price on Liverpool. Hate to admit it but 12/5 Reading double chance is great value considering the home record

A couple of weeks ago I tipped up Liverpool as a lay against Stoke on the basis that they shouldnt be 8/15 against anyone, never mind Stoke. One draw and two weeks on, they are 1/3. The mind boggles. Lay all day long. That's at least the 4th occasion theyve been a ridiculous price this season.

Why not lay and get 3/1 on your double chance rather than 12/5? Presuming you use the exchanges of course

Fundamental Bettor

English Championship: Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds

Sheffield Wednesday (22nd) host Leeds (7th) in what should be a toughly fought Yorkshire derby. The bookmakers have priced up Sheffield Wednesday as an 11/8 favourite even though they have failed to gain a win in their last 8 matches in all competitions and languish in the relegation zone.

Both teams have a high average goals per game with Sheffield Wednesday coming in at 3.5 and Leeds at 3.4.

Sheffield Wednesday have the second worst defence in the Championship having conceded 21 goals and will have to keep out a rampant Leeds attack who hold the joint 3rd best offensive record in the league with 18 goals and the second highest scorer in the Championship in Luciano Becchio with 8 goals (3 penalties and 5 time first goal scorer – Becchio best price to score the first goal 6/1 with Stan James).

Leeds are a very open attacking away team with both 9 goals scored and conceded in their opening 5 away Championship fixtures and should breach the Wednesday defence on at least two occasions which can be had at a generous price of 29/20 with Coral.

Sheffield Wednesday will miss Johnson and Lines while Leeds will be without McCormack and Tonge and Austin are doubtful.

Both teams have had 80% of their matches go over 2.5 goals and this is the market that holds the most appeal for me in terms of this log. All 5 of Leeds away league games have gone over 2.5 goals while 4 from 5 of Wednesdays home matches have gone over 2.5.

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Coral
Odds: 8/11

squirrelohara

Fundamental Bettor wrote: »

English Championship: Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds

Sheffield Wednesday (22nd) host Leeds (7th) in what should be a toughly fought Yorkshire derby. The bookmakers have priced up Sheffield Wednesday as an 11/8 favourite even though they have failed to gain a win in their last 8 matches in all competitions and languish in the relegation zone.

Both teams have a high average goals per game with Sheffield Wednesday coming in at 3.5 and Leeds at 3.4.

Sheffield Wednesday have the second worst defence in the Championship having conceded 21 goals and will have to keep out a rampant Leeds attack who hold the joint 3rd best offensive record in the league with 18 goals and the second highest scorer in the Championship in Luciano Becchio with 8 goals (3 penalties and 5 time first goal scorer – Becchio best price to score the first goal 6/1 with Stan James).

Leeds are a very open attacking away team with both 9 goals scored and conceded in their opening 5 away Championship fixtures and should breach the Wednesday defence on at least two occasions which can be had at a generous price of 29/20 with Coral.

Sheffield Wednesday will miss Johnson and Lines while Leeds will be without McCormack and Tonge and Austin are doubtful.

Both teams have had 80% of their matches go over 2.5 goals and this is the market that holds the most appeal for me in terms of this log. All 5 of Leeds away league games have gone over 2.5 goals while 4 from 5 of Wednesdays home matches have gone over 2.5.

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Coral
Odds: 8/11

Very comprehensive haha. You should be writing for a paper. With homework that good i will definetly be taking your advice. Do you have any other fancy that i could double that with.

Avfctom

Shane St. wrote: »

what is the point of that post. This is a betting forum not a Villa supporters forum

God this threads getting far to serious it was a bit of banter il keep an eye out for anyone talking about anythink other than a betting tip from now then

Fundamental Bettor

squirrelohara wrote: »

Very comprehensive haha. You should be writing for a paper. With homework that good i will definetly be taking your advice. Do you have any other fancy that i could double that with.

The best advice I can give you is to stick to singles.

De Dannan

Man Utd, Arsenal, Man City, Barcalona all to win
4 way pays about 3.87/1

Austria!

I hear the best advice you can be given is to stick to singles, but at least take Man City out of that accumulator.

West Brom have a great home record so far (4 wins from 4)
Man City did not come out of the internationals well.

• Silva injured
• Lescott and Milner only played on Wednesday (2 days rest)
• Aguero, a key player, was over in South America playing for Argentina recently.

Given a clear top 8 teams, I define mid-table to be 9-14, which is where West Brom should end up this season. Of the 6 away games Man City had against the teams that finished mid-table, they won 1. And they are not playing as good as they were last year.

As a matter of fact, I'm probably going to for West Brom double chance @2.15 myself.

rossit

Higgytash wrote: »

Drogheda 9/5 at home to sligo is great value in my opinion ... Sligo won the league last week and hence have nothing really to play for, and from what i hear they were out celebrating all week and cant imagine them being to hyped and ready travelling the other side of the country for this ...

Drogheda have to win tonight for second position and the Europa league spot, its a massive game for them and they really could do with the money europe could generate, they will be really up for this game and have been preparing all week unlike sligo..

thanks buddie for pointing this one out got me a few yo yo cheers

Avfctom

Avfctom wrote: »

Right guys any opinons on these bets

Tommorow

Leeds or draw
Hoffenheim or draw
Galatasaray or draw
Bordeaux or draw
2/1 £20

Leeds to win 21/10
Bordeaux to win 5/4
Double £10

Saturday main big bet i like the look of
Chelsea or draw
Man united win
Man city win
Arsenal win
4/1 £100

Good start

Higgytash

rossit wrote: »

thanks buddie for pointing this one out got me a few yo yo cheers

Lovely Stuff!!! I didnt place the bet in the end :mad: at least someone got something off the bookies on it! great price!! I was sure it was over when Sligo Scored the clearly offside goal and then the sending off :rolleyes:

BKC

Higgytash wrote: »

Lovely Stuff!!! I didnt place the bet in the end :mad: at least someone got something off the bookies on it! great price!! I was sure it was over when Sligo Scored the clearly offside goal and then the sending off :rolleyes:

The goal was onside.

frat

Shane St. wrote: »

what is the point of that post. This is a betting forum not a Villa supporters forum

Agreed, hopefully the mods will take action

tip74

Injuries & suspensions:
Fortuna Düsseldorf v Bayern München
Fortuna Düsseldorf: Balogun (0/0 d), Bruno Soares (0/0 d), Malezas (7/0 d), Fink (7/1 m), Reisinger (3/0 f)
Bayern München: Raeder (0/0 g), Robben (3/0 m), Gomez (0/0 f)
pick 2

Orduspor v Elazığspor
Orduspor: Şahin (0/0 d), Monje (6/0 m)
Elazığspor: Atalay (0/0 g), Yiğit (0/0 m), Ak (5/0 d), Zeegelaar (6/0 f), Feindouno (6/0 m), Zaki (5/0 f)
pick 1

Brighton v Middlesbrough
Brighton: Hoskins (0/0 f), Vicente (1/0 m)
Middlesbrough: Woodgate (7/0 d), Reach (4/1 d) (both doubtful), Miller (4/0 f), Hoyte (10/0 d), Jutkiewicz (6/4 f), Zemmama (9/1 m), Carayol (3/1 f), Main (2/0 f), Williams (7/2 f)
pick 1

New England Revolution v Chicago Fire
New England Revolution: Soares, Tierney, Toja (all doubtful), Lechner, McCarthy, Nguyen, Polak, Sene, Feilhaber
Chicago Fire: Pardo (doubtful), Cory Gibbs, Franco
pick 2

Avfctom

frat wrote: »

Agreed, hopefully the mods will take action

Get a grip its a bit of banter