The Football Tips Thread v3

Higgytash

No risk Bet Here

Seen an error on PaddyPower site. . . Its horse racing but its basically a no risk so thought id post it here you can add it to your footy accums it pays back evens.

DOWN ROYAL 2.25 tomorrow SIZING EUROPE is expected to win this handy enough, he is 2/1 to win it.. The inurabet second place is Evens, this means if he comes second they will refund the stake and if he wins you'll get Evens pay out....

The mistake however is on PADDYPOWER they have the insurabet 3 places as Evens too. . . so if he comes second and 3rd youll get refunded and wins youll still get Evens.... The odds on other sites for Insurabet 3 places on the horse is 1/4 and 1/3 and should be on PP site but theyve obviously made a mistake . . .

Gavin "shels"

Higgytash wrote: »

No risk Bet Here

Seen an error on PaddyPower site. . . Its horse racing but its basically a no risk so thought id post it here you can add it to your footy accums it pays back evens.

DOWN ROYAL 2.25 tomorrow SIZING EUROPE is expected to win this handy enough, he is 2/1 to win it.. The inurabet second place is Evens, this means if he comes second they will refund the stake and if he wins you'll get Evens pay out....

The mistake however is on PADDYPOWER they have the insurabet 3 places as Evens too. . . so if he comes second and 3rd youll get refunded and wins youll still get Evens.... The odds on other sites for Insurabet 3 places on the horse is 1/4 and 1/3 and should be on PP site but theyve obviously made a mistake . . .

Two things, this is a Football Betting thread and Sizing Europe win a 3 mile handy enough? That doesn't happen, I'm a huge fan of SE, he's won me loads since his 14/1 win at Cheltenham but beware of this. He'll definitely place mind you.

clearodara

United
Chelsea
Spurs
Man City

€20 to win €160

Any reason why this shouldn't come in? Havent checked teams or injury lists just going on form.

ConorCBS

clearodara wrote: »

United
Chelsea
Spurs
Man City

€20 to win €160

Any reason why this shouldn't come in? Havent checked teams or injury lists just going on form.

Man City were terrible last week and were lucky to win. They are badly missing David Silva. West Ham are decent at home.

Higgytash

Gavin shels wrote: »

Two things, this is a Football Betting thread and Sizing Europe win a 3 mile handy enough? That doesn't happen, I'm a huge fan of SE, he's won me loads since his 14/1 win at Cheltenham but beware of this. He'll definitely place mind you.

I never said he would win it handy, said he is EXPECTED TO . . . Which he is. . . I know its a footy thread just thought people would be interested in a PP mistake that is Evens with them and is as low as 1/4 on other sites.

tip74

Injuries and suspensions:
Juventus FC v Inter Milano
Juventus FC: Pepe (0/0 m)
Inter Milano: Coutinho (5/1 m), Obi (1/0 m), Mariga (0/0 m), Sneijder (5/1 m), Chivu (0/0 d), Stankovic (0/0 m), Jonathan (1/0 d) (doubtful)
pick 1

Dundee FC v Hearts FC
Dundee FC: Easton (2/0 d), Kerr (5/0 m), Grassi (6/0 d), O'Donnell (3/0 m), Stewart (5/0 f), Finnigan (0/0 f), McCluskey (0/0 m)
Hearts FC: Stevenson (7/0 m), Ridgers (0/0 g), Hamill (0/0 d), Carrick (6/0 f)
pick 2

Kayserispor v Kardemir Karabükspor
Kayserispor: Mouche (9/1 f), Bildirici (0/0 f)
Kardemir Karabükspor: Yıldız (6/0 f), Ünal (0/0 f), Parlak (9/3 f), Uçar (3/0 d), Shelton (7/2 f)
pick 1

Crewe Alexandra v Wycombe Wanderers
Crewe Alexandra: Clayton (13/1 f), Osman (10/0 m) (both doubtful), Colclough (2/0), Bond (4/0 m), Leitch-Smith (12/3 m)
Wycombe Wanderers: Kuffour (11/0 f), Morgan (9/1 f) (doubtful), Foster (7/0 d), Basey (3/0 d), McCoy (0/0 d), Johnson (11/0 d), Kewley-Graham (2/0 m), Oli (4/0 f)
pick 1

HNK Rijeka v NK Zagreb
HNK Rijeka: Čaval (13/0 d)
NK Zagreb: Abdurahimi (12/3 m), Pelaić (10/0 d), Dedić (8/0 m), Oršulić (11/0 m), Frljužec (2/0 f), Čiča (m), Džolan (1/0 d)
pick 1

clickerquicklic

Avfctom wrote: »

The 27/1 game is tommorow if interested 15 pound payment required private message me

Wow , can't believe that this goes on here , I can 100% gaurantee you this is a scam , absolute sh*t not a chance this is genuine . Someone has a 27/1 tip and wants 15 quid for it lol what a joke . I have been betting years and turn over close to 500k a year betting on all sports , I am a member of about 10 other betting forums and have seen lots of things similar . Don't waste your money.

There are ways to beat the bookies , the prices of all major football games are controlled by asia and when they changed in asia they change at Betfair , if bookies are above betfiar they get hit and the price is cut at the bookies .There are trainers and people associated with yards that have information about horses , people that get on early take the value , trainers etc are not selling info for 15 quid , and even if they are selling info they have got on themselves first and taken the value out of the market , some people get confused and see a horse thats 12/1 backed into 4/1 and think im going to lump on thats a sure thing , what it actually means is the horse at 12/1 had an 8% chance of winning and the trainer etc may have given it a 6/1 or 16% chance of winning it means it was a good bet from 12-6 but after that the value is gone , you have to value bet or you lose long term. I keep detailed records of everybet ive ever placed and i am less than 1% off the expected value of my bets , thats based on over 100k individual bets.

Lasagna Diarra

Last round of the season in Estonia
over 2.5 in Viljandi vs Sillamae Kalev
over 2.5 in Paide vs Levadia Tallinn
under 3.5 in Trans vs Flroa
@ 2.73

Sillamae vs Viljandi: pros vs amateurs, with a win, Sillamae can finish 4th (last Europa league spot) if Trans lose vs Flora (likely imo) or draw in which case Trans'd have a better goal differential, that's why Sillamae needs to score lots of goals. Viljandi's games are usually on the overish side.

Levadia vs Paide: pros vs amateurs again, Levadia and Flora are level on points with Flora having a slightly better goal differential (63 vs 62), so Levadia needs to score more than Flora (assuming they win), the game will be played on astro turf, hopefully that won't affect the game too much.

Trans vs Flora: pros vs pros, Flora need to win to stay 2nd and Trans need to win (or draw and hope sillamae don't thrash viljandi) to finish 4th, these games usually go under 2.5.

evosteo

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Wow , can't believe that this goes on here , I can 100% gaurantee you this is a scam , absolute sh*t not a chance this is genuine . Someone has a 27/1 tip and wants 15 quid for it lol what a joke . I have been betting years and turn over close to 500k a year betting on all sports , I am a member of about 10 other betting forums and have seen lots of things similar . Don't waste your money.

There are ways to beat the bookies , the prices of all major football games are controlled by asia and when they changed in asia they change at Betfair , if bookies are above betfiar they get hit and the price is cut at the bookies .There are trainers and people associated with yards that have information about horses , people that get on early take the value , trainers etc are not selling info for 15 quid , and even if they are selling info they have got on themselves first and taken the value out of the market , some people get confused and see a horse thats 12/1 backed into 4/1 and think im going to lump on thats a sure thing , what it actually means is the horse at 12/1 had an 8% chance of winning and the trainer etc may have given it a 6/1 or 16% chance of winning it means it was a good bet from 12-6 but after that the value is gone , you have to value bet or you lose long term. I keep detailed records of everybet ive ever placed and i am less than 1% off the expected value of my bets , thats based on over 100k individual bets.

interested in starting your own thread?????????

BettorAssist

If you have been betting seriously for 10 years for example that would equate to at least 192 bets each week, every week.

I have to take my hat off to you if you can identify that many value spots each week.

How do you keep track of and calculate the EV of your bets?

Austria!

I think the 1.44 on QPR to stay up is candy from a baby. Very good squad that just hasn't clicked yet, and hughes seems to have been good everywhere except city.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

joei

Higgytash wrote: »

No risk Bet Here

Seen an error on PaddyPower site. . . Its horse racing but its basically a no risk so thought id post it here you can add it to your footy accums it pays back evens.

DOWN ROYAL 2.25 tomorrow SIZING EUROPE is expected to win this handy enough, he is 2/1 to win it.. The inurabet second place is Evens, this means if he comes second they will refund the stake and if he wins you'll get Evens pay out....

The mistake however is on PADDYPOWER they have the insurabet 3 places as Evens too. . . so if he comes second and 3rd youll get refunded and wins youll still get Evens.... The odds on other sites for Insurabet 3 places on the horse is 1/4 and 1/3 and should be on PP site but theyve obviously made a mistake . . .

Sizing Europe is a non runner!

clickerquicklic

BettorAssist wrote: »

If you have been betting seriously for 10 years for example that would equate to at least 192 bets each week, every week.

I have to take my hat off to you if you can identify that many value spots each week.

How do you keep track of and calculate the EV of your bets?

I calculate my EV based on the Betfair price . I have over
700 individual bookmaker accounts , when there is a move in odds my aim is to catch this move after Betfair but before bookmakers move there line. I have to keep money in lots of bookmakers to do this online and phone bookmakers , so say united are 8/11 now and move to 4/6 i get as much 8/11 now as i can , this can involve me placing up to 50 individual bets at 8/11 at different bookmakers.

Just too add I don't make any opinon about any games ever , I will back united even if i think they are going to lose 5-0 , i will back them because the odds are wrong

Austria!

In the last 4 years wigan have lost 19 of their 24 (79%) matches away to the top 6. Odds of 1.53 on Spurs beating them = 65% chance.

magherakid

Double

Man Utd v Arsenal
Man Utd 8/11 think Utd will have to much firepower for Arsenal who have been struggling lately.

Crusaders v Glenavon
Crusaders 11/20 are unbeaten in the last 4 league games while Glenavon have been poor away from home all season.

evosteo

little 5 fold i fancy......

Atletico Madrid And Draw @ 1/2

Vitesse Arnhem @ 4/7
Alternative Handicap(+2.0)

Cardiff And Draw @ 4/7

Middlesbrough And Draw @ 1/2

Schalke 04 @ 8/11

approx 10/1

Strummerville

All to win comes out at 10.44/1 first match kicks off at 2:30. Not sure if i wana rely on that many teams to win though.

Schalke 04 8/11

Borussia Dortmund 4/11

Real Madrid 1/9

Man City 8/11

Malaga 2/5

Barcelona 1/10

Tottenham 1/2

shrewdness

€20 on Man Utd -1 @ 9/5

Fowler87

Santi Carzorla anytime @ 9/2. Stats say he has scored all his goals away from home but hes also the most shots of any Arsenal player. Due a goal, big game player and big price.

Hulk Hands

Higgytash wrote: »

I never said he would win it handy, said he is EXPECTED TO . . . Which he is. . . I know its a footy thread just thought people would be interested in a PP mistake that is Evens with them and is as low as 1/4 on other sites.

He is ruled out now so doesn't matter, but how was he expected to win handy? 2/1 means he has a 33% shot of winning in the markets eyes. How is that expected to win handy? If he was expected to win he'd be odds on surely?

niginator

Im going to go with 3 or more first half goals 4/1 in the United match. This is based on Uniteds tendancy to concede early goals, and the ability to score them up the other end. Plenty of which have been scored in the first half of their games this season.

frat

Overs in the united and Bolton games, Sunderland and Chelsea accum!

$100 on at 9.57

TheJackAttack

Fulham/Everton
Swansea/Chelski
Hammers/City

BTTS treble - 9/2 Goals Galore

Stats look good

magherakid

what time does this tip kick off

PopTarts

magherakid wrote: »

what time does this tip kick off

The BTTS treble is 3pm (Man City match is 5.30pm)

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Last round of the season in Estonia
over 2.5 in Viljandi vs Sillamae Kalev 0-5
over 2.5 in Paide vs Levadia Tallinn 1-2
under 3.5 in Trans vs Flroa 2-2
@ 2.73

Sillamae vs Viljandi: pros vs amateurs, with a win, Sillamae can finish 4th (last Europa league spot) if Trans lose vs Flora (likely imo) or draw in which case Trans'd have a better goal differential, that's why Sillamae needs to score lots of goals. Viljandi's games are usually on the overish side.

Levadia vs Paide: pros vs amateurs again, Levadia and Flora are level on points with Flora having a slightly better goal differential (63 vs 62), so Levadia needs to score more than Flora (assuming they win), the game will be played on astro turf, hopefully that won't affect the game too much.

Trans vs Flora: pros vs pros, Flora need to win to stay 2nd and Trans need to win (or draw and hope sillamae don't thrash viljandi) to finish 4th, these games usually go under 2.5.

Everything was going well until Trans scored at the 93rd min

newportlad

Just sticking to FA Cup first round games today.

Thinking of this selection, pay's around 7/1

Chelmsford v Colchester 4/6
Bournemouth 8/15 v Dagenham
Swindon 3/10 v Macclesfield
Forest Green v Port Vale 5/4

Any thought's ?

All opponents Blue Square teams bar league 2 Dagenham

rossit

magherakid wrote: »

No PopTarts Tom's tip

have people who paid got their tip

jezztips

Great Value in Hannover Win 2:30 kick off 4/5 ... Should be routine win for them at home. Cant get over the odds.

Avfctom

rossit wrote: »

have people who paid got their tip

Yes everyones had it 7pm