The Football Tips Thread v3

Shane St.

Shane St. wrote: »

Chelsea v Shaktar
I think Chelsea are a little short at 10/11 against this Shaktar team. Shaktar are unbeaten in 39 competitive games and their league form this season is frightening (14 wins out of 14). They were impressive in beating Chelsea in the reverse of this fixture but also went to a tough place like Juventus and got a draw. Will def be having a bet on Shaktar +1 at 4/5
Henrik Mkhitaryan anytime goalscorer at 23/10 looks a very good price for a guy with 16 goals from 18 appearances this season (incl. 2 goals in the opening group game)

Braga v Man Utd
I'm thinking about going big on both teams to score at 4/7 We all know Man Utd are excellent going forward but they have only managed 2 clean sheets from their 10 league games. They also let in 5 goals after extra time in their extraordinary league cup game with Chelsea. I think Ferdinand will be rested for this game (I'll wait for teams) but I think this is a safe bet. Braga are in very good scoring form themselves (11 goals in their last 4 league games) and they managed to score 2 goals in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford and created many chances. It's a bet def worth throwing into any accumulators anyways.

So close..... but still once again a profitable night went large on the both teams to score in Braga Utd

P_1

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Limited to 12p on everything now at 888sport , they didnt like that win , why are bookies afraid to lay bets , only decent bookie is ladbrokes they give you a chance

12p???

That just after the one bet?

ConorCBS

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Limited to 12p on everything now at 888sport , they didnt like that win , why are bookies afraid to lay bets , only decent bookie is ladbrokes they give you a chance

Pathetic.

clickerquicklic

pithater1 wrote: »

12p???

That just after the one bet?

Every account I have ever openned i have bet the bookie over time , by taking value , can no longer operate any accounts in my own name , I just pay people to open accounts for me , I give mates 1k a time to open accounts and let me use them . That was my first bet on that account .

Avfctom

Right on a double of

Sau paulo
New york red bulls

Just under 2/1 any opinions

redarmy

redarmy wrote: »

Bayern Munich @ 1/5
Win-Draw-Win
Bayern Munich v Lille Pending
Chelsea @ 19/20
Win-Draw-Win
Chelsea v Shakhtar Donetsk Pending
Tranmere @ evens
Win-Draw-Win
Hartlepool v Tranmere Pending

boom

FatRat

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Every account I have ever openned i have bet the bookie over time , by taking value , can no longer operate any accounts in my own name , I just pay people to open accounts for me , I give mates 1k a time to open accounts and let me use them . That was my first bet on that account .

That's ridiculous man! Never knew that sort of stuff happened because I never make very large bets. Bookies are gambling just like the gamblers themselves but they're still allowed to control how much we bet because of the risk of losing money? No freedom in gambling if you're doing well is there? But if you're doing poorly they'd love to have your business.



Afterall they are a business and that's what business' do. By the way it seem loads of people had good nights tonight.(or else it's just the people who are winning posting) Great to see!

clickerquicklic

FatRat wrote: »

That's ridiculous man! Never knew that sort of stuff happened because I never make very large bets. Bookies are gambling just like the gamblers themselves but they're still aloud to control how much we bet because of the risk of losing money? No freedom in gambling if you're doing well is there? But if you're doing poorly they'd love to have your business.



Afterall they are a business and that's what business' do. By the way it seem loads of people had good nights tonight.(or else it's just the people who are winning posting) Great to see!

Bookmakers don't make there own prices anymore , they put a coupon up and prices on there website but ultimately the prices are controlled by Asia and Betfair , the Asian markets are so efficient they can have lines at 104% compared to probably 110% + for most bookmakers .

When i try to explain it to people I remember Derren Brown had a program where he asks a group of people to guess the weight of a cow or something and the more people he asked the closer to the true weight they got , thats kinda how Asian markets and Betfair works the sheer amount of people and opinons means the odds represent the true probablily of the event happenning , when you get odds above the Betfair or Asian lines at bookmakers ultimately taking these lines will lead you to profit , thats why bookmakers will limit you and close you down , but asian bookmakers and betfair will never limit or close you because you are not getting value you are merely betting on something that represents the true probability of the event happenning , i encourage everyone to learn about markets and everyone can beat bookmakers longterm


http://www.all-about-psychology.com/the-wisdom-of-crowds.html thats a link to the story about guessing the weight of an ox , amazing really the wisdom of many , im sorry if this post is a bit heavy for some , i know alot here probably for a fun bet , please ignore me and go on with your fun bets , i take gambling way too serious!

Blatter

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Bookmakers don't make there own prices anymore , they put a coupon up and prices on there website but ultimately the prices are controlled by Asia and Betfair , the Asian markets are so efficient they can have lines at 104% compared to probably 110% + for most bookmakers .

When i try to explain it to people I remember Derren Brown had a program where he asks a group of people to guess the weight of a cow or something and the more people he asked the closer to the true weight they got , thats kinda how Asian markets and Betfair works the sheer amount of people and opinons means the odds represent the true probablily of the event happenning , when you get odds above the Betfair or Asian lines at bookmakers ultimately taking these lines will lead you to profit , thats why bookmakers will limit you and close you down , but asian bookmakers and betfair will never limit or close you because you are not getting value you are merely betting on something that represents the true probability of the event happenning , i encourage everyone to learn about markets and everyone can beat bookmakers longterm

I think people need to realise that if you're betting on something that a bookmaker has priced at 1.7 when the true price is 1.83 (betfair would be the best place to attempt to determine the 'true' value, as you say) then you are statistically going to lose money in the long run. It's how bookies operate a viable business.

It's why the vast majority of accumulators are a waste of time. It's hard enough to find one value bet in any one bookmakers at any one time, never mind 4 or 5 in the one go. All most people are doing is multiplying the bookies advantage over you. They ****ing love accumulators.

Supraman

steveLFC24 wrote: »

On less happy note, Barca let me down on a 7 team accumulator, out of all the fupping games :mad: Would have been a tidy sum.

let me down on 6 and 8 team accumulators , although was having to wait on Liverpool win tomorrow night too if the 8 timer was to come through .

keane2097

Blatter wrote: »

I think people need to realise that if you're betting on something that a bookmaker has priced at 1.7 when the true price is 1.83 (betfair would be the best place to attempt to determine the 'true' value, as you say) then you are statistically going to lose money in the long run. It's how bookies operate a viable business.

It's why the vast majority of accumulators are a waste of time. It's hard enough to find one value bet in any one bookmakers at any one time, never mind 4 or 5 in the one go. All most people are doing is multiplying the bookies advantage over you. They ****ing love accumulators.

Better off looking at Pinnacle, with BF you have to factor in commission rates based on your activity, plus market liquidity is a major factor in the accuracy of BF lines.

clickerquicklic

keane2097 wrote: »

Better off looking at Pinnacle, with BF you have to factor in commission rates based on your activity, plus market liquidity is a major factor in the accuracy of BF lines.

On a side note Pinnacle had some owners arrested last week , not sure whats going on at the moment but I withdrew until it all blows over , Betfair . sbobet , 12bet , dafabet , 188bet all worth looking at to define value .

If you don't use Betfair alot Smarkets are 2% comission and same odds as Betfair

Blatter

keane2097 wrote: »

Better off looking at Pinnacle, with BF you have to factor in commission rates based on your activity, plus market liquidity is a major factor in the accuracy of BF lines.

Yeah, pinnacle is excellent. What is their overround, 102%?

When I say Betfair, I mean the price you first see on screen. That's minus commission and should be close enough to the true value. Providing there's enough interest in the market of course.

FlawedGenius

keane2097 wrote: »

Better off looking at Pinnacle, with BF you have to factor in commission rates based on your activity, plus market liquidity is a major factor in the accuracy of BF lines.

What exactly does market liquidity mean??Amount of money in a market?

keane2097

clickerquicklic wrote: »

On a side note Pinnacle had some owners arrested last week , not sure whats going on at the moment but I withdrew until it all blows over , Betfair . sbobet , 12bet , dafabet , 188bet all worth looking at to define value .

If you don't use Betfair alot Smarkets are 2% comission and same odds as Betfair

Yeah been following the Pinny thing on 2+2, there's no risk to the company whatsoever. Have a lot in there and no intention to move it whatsoever.

FlawedGenius wrote: »

What exactly does market liquidity mean??Amount of money in a market?

Pretty much.

clickerquicklic

I do think Pinny will be ok , my only fear is if it caused mass withdrawals , but they paid me in less than 30 mins , probably the best bookie ive ever used . I got my fingers burnt with Beted and a few other us facing books so am threading carefully at the moment.

keane2097

clickerquicklic wrote: »

I do think Pinny will be ok , my only fear is if it caused mass withdrawals , but they paid me in less than 30 mins , probably the best bookie ive ever used . I got my fingers burnt with Beted and a few other us facing books so am threading carefully at the moment.

Yeah they're unbelievable. No point taking a risk however slight if you can find your prices elsewhere I suppose.

Shane St.

Anything standing out tomorrow??

Blatter

clickerquicklic wrote: »

I do think Pinny will be ok , my only fear is if it caused mass withdrawals , but they paid me in less than 30 mins , probably the best bookie ive ever used . I got my fingers burnt with Beted and a few other us facing books so am threading carefully at the moment.

In what way?

clickerquicklic

Blatter wrote: »

In what way?

http://bodog.com/

you log in one day and you find this ! Ive lost about 20k in a few US facing books that the FBI took over , I may get it back one day but its extremely unlikely

DiarmuidBoy89

Lumping on anzhi.. Playing against Liverpool at home and Liverpool or not bringing Suarez gerrard Allen sahin agger reina Enrique Johnson and sterling

Blatter

clickerquicklic wrote: »

http://bodog.com/

you log in one day and you find this ! Ive lost about 20k in a few US facing books that the FBI took over , I may get it back one day but its extremely unlikely

****, never heard of that happening before, I don't think I know anybody that has US betting accounts.

Do you ever personally place large bets in shops? Is there many questions asked or any problems?

keane2097

Blatter wrote: »

****, never heard of that happening before, I don't think I know anybody that has US betting accounts.

Do you ever personally place large bets in shops? Is there many questions asked or any problems?

Same thing happened to a lot of friends/acquaintances with Full Tilt. Took, what, two years before we eventually got access to our funds again?

Shops have a limit on how much liability they're allowed to take before they have to ring a trader to clear the bet. You should be ok in the short term but they'll eventually limit you if you keep winning in the same shop.

clickerquicklic

Blatter wrote: »

****, never heard of that happening before, I don't think I know anybody that has US betting accounts.

Do you ever personally place large bets in shops? Is there many questions asked or any problems?

Shops are a joke don't take large bets , I wanted 500 on Everton a couple of weeks back at 6/5 they had to ring head office came back with 300 at 6/5 and the rest at Evens . The more you go in and place bets the more they ring up , last time I bothered going in to Ladbrokes I was only offered 100 on a premier league game so gave up trying .

Paddy power wouldn't take a bet of 1000 on ryder cup without ringing up head office then came back and offered me 500 .They have no belief in there own prices .

It gets harder and harder to get bets on , having to pay people for gnome or beard accounts is the only way nowadays for me.

keane2097

You're better off asking how much the shop will take without ringing the office a lot of the time, the office will come back with a smaller limit pretty often anyway.

Blatter

Ah right cool. Just asking because I've seen a few arbing opportunities between bookies and pinnacle and always wondered how easily a shop would take a large bet from you. I avoid doing it online because I've heard plenty of times that the minute they suspect you of arbing, they close your account.

Do any of you make much money through arbing between pinnacle and exchanges like Betfair? No real risk there.

clickerquicklic

Blatter wrote: »

Ah right cool. Just asking because I've seen a few arbing opportunities between bookies and pinnacle and always wondered how easily a shop would take a large bet from you. I avoid doing it online because I've heard plenty of times that the minute they suspect you of arbing, they close your account.

Do any of you make much money through arbing between pinnacle and exchanges like Betfair? No real risk there.

You can't arb between Pinnacle and exchanges , its not possible , similarly you can't arb between two Asians.

Arbing will get you limited everywhere and accounts closed , there are subtle ways to do it , like limiting your stake size and betting on major events instead of 3rd Division Greek football , also find your own arbs instead of arbs that appear on free arb sites. I used to arb until i realised in laying my arbs I was giving away alot of the value in vig at the Asians and comission at Betfair. I still use Asians or Betfair to lay off the excess of my value bets , ill only ever mug 0.5% of my float on a value bet after that I will generally lay the excess.

BettorAssist

I see Celtic had 16% possession!

Forester added a fair bit to his value over the two legs.

Celtic may take a very conserative approach in their final two group games.

keane2097

No point arbing, just stand whatever side of the bet is out of whack and you'll make a lot more in the long term.

opr

DiarmuidBoy89 wrote: »

Lumping on anzhi.. Playing against Liverpool at home and Liverpool or not bringing Suarez gerrard Allen sahin agger reina Enrique Johnson and sterling

Full team tomorrow from a source who is usually bang on says it will be three centre backs with Downing/Flanagan as wing backs.

Team - Jones, Downing, Coates, Wisdom, Carragher, Flanno, Shelvey, Henderson, Coady, Cole, Morgan

Opr