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The Football Tips Thread v3
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United win over 80% of their home games generally over the last 4 years, and that's including matches against the top 4. West ham aren't even a top 8 team. Odds of 1.25 for a home win are very good tonight.
I was a bit surprised by how good the odds were on this actually. Over the last 6 seasons, united won 88% of the home games against bottom 10 teams, which West Ham almost certainly are. That equals odds of about 1.15, not the 1.25 offered by the bookies.
I can only think the bookies are going by older historical data about how the top 2 fare, but as you can see in this chart the big teams are getting better at winning as the years go by. But even if you go back 12 years the historical odds only rise to 1.21.
And if you look at last year's odds at Bet365 for example, you get 1.13, 1.14, 1.14, 1.17 for the visits of Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and QPR to Old Trafford, which is more in line with what I expect. Sure West Ham are better than those guys...
So after all that, I don't understand the price at all.
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And I'm backing United Away to Reading @1.44, based on a guess I'm making about that trendline you see up top. The top2's away form hasn't improved in the last 12 years, except against the bottom teams, where the last 6 years have been very different from the previous 6. Given that the bookies overround is small, I think my confidence in my guess gives me a slight edge (like in Bayesian probability).
I've probably bored/confused everyone. Sorry. If it helps, I'll also tip a draw at west ham. Chelsea struggling, west ham hard to break down, the home advantage goes some way to making up the gulf in class. Odds of 3.5 seem tasty.0 -
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I was a bit surprised by how good the odds were on this actually. Over the last 6 seasons, united won 88% of the home games against bottom 10 teams, which West Ham almost certainly are. That equals odds of about 1.15, not the 1.25 offered by the bookies.
I can only think the bookies are going by older historical data about how the top 2 fare, but as you can see in this chart the big teams are getting better at winning as the years go by. But even if you go back 12 years the historical odds only rise to 1.21.
And if you look at last year's odds at Bet365 for example, you get 1.13, 1.14, 1.14, 1.17 for the visits of Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and QPR to Old Trafford, which is more in line with what I expect. Sure West Ham are better than those guys...
So after all that, I don't understand the price at all.
=================================
And I'm backing United Away to Reading @1.44, based on a guess I'm making about that trendline you see up top. The top2's away form hasn't improved in the last 12 years, except against the bottom teams, where the last 6 years have been very different from the previous 6. Given that the bookies overround is small, I think my confidence in my guess gives me a slight edge (like in Bayesian probability).
I've probably bored/confused everyone. Sorry. If it helps, I'll also tip a draw at west ham. Chelsea struggling, west ham hard to break down, the home advantage goes some way to making up the gulf in class. Odds of 3.5 seem tasty.
I think West Ham in particular have a touch of the Liverpool/Evertons about them in that they seem to get backed quite a bit which leads to their price being incorrect.
In saying that, I got 1.36 on United at home to Wigan earlier on in the season which I was pretty surprised with even withstanding the fact that United hadn't been in great form before hand.0 -
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Smithwicks Man wrote: »Edinson Cavani to be the Serie A top scorer is available at 9/2 on SkyBet. Dropped from 6/1 on Paddypower to 7/2 after his hat trick last night. Got on at 6/1 but will be staking more at 9/2 as I'm even more confident now. A double of Juventus and Cavani winner and top scorer is 11/2 with BetVictor upon request which also holds value.
The bookies had this one all wrong imo. Many have the second and third favourites as Jovetic (Support striker) and Pazzini (Useless) . Early goals for these two has interfered with the odds imo.
Cavani is leagues ahead of both of them with the only other two 3 strikers capable of scoring over 20 goals being:
1. Di Natale 14/1 (Quite possible and will look to lay Cavani using him if things go badly)
2. Diego Milito 9/1 (Same as Di Natale and may lay Cavani using him)
3. Alex Pato 49/1 Has the ability but won't play enough games. However, he'll play enough games to ensure Pazzini misses out on a few, thus completely ruling him out of the running.
Miroslav Klose is the other alternative but I don't think he'll clear the 20 goal mark as club goals have never been his specialty (Has an impressive record with Lazio though). He's available at best odds of 14/1.
Jovetic simply doesn't have the firepower or support to score regularly enough and Osvaldo won't clear 20 goals. Cavani also has more responsibility to score now that Lavezzi is gone and the man rarely gets injured.
It should take no more than 25 goals to win this one and I can see him doing it but more importantly, I can't see anybody else coming that close. All these other factors make 9/2 great odds.
300 euro on (60% of Bankroll)
On a sidenote Pep Guardiola is 20/1 to have AC Milan as his next club (Betvictor). Allegri's leaving, Guardiola's interested. More than a 5% chance of this happening makes it good vale. 20 euro on for fun.
Had to repost this when I saw the talk of El Shaarawy being top scorer. Avid Milan fan, follow them to a tee. But I simply can't see him keeping it up. 12 in his first 14 but I can't see him heading much north of 20. 24/25 at most but I can see Cavani just pipping him to the post. 4/1 now at Betvictor but I'm sure he will be available at 5/1 at some stage soon. Have 250 on him at 4/1 now (and 150 @ 6/1) (which is a lot for me) and I will be staking more if it hits 5/1 because it's just too good to turn down. Can be easily laid as well if things go sour with Milito and Di Natale the only other real contenders (Klose should fall short).
So all in all I wouldn't lump on El Shaarawy, especially at those odds. Cavani will come good very soon (Home to Pescara Monday) so all in all I'd advise not backing SES, but if you are going to back him, at least wait until Monday!
On a side note Guardiola's next job to be Milan is 33/1 on BetVictor and 4/1 on Paddypower
.. Have money on him at 20/1 and 16/1 but I might put a few quid more on @ 33s because it's simply too good value! 0 -
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Nuri Sahin wrote: »BTTS, Over 2.5 and Over 3.5.
Long story short, I expect us to score and to concede.
And Robben is out so he cant **** up a penalty
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I was a bit surprised by how good the odds were on this actually. Over the last 6 seasons, united won 88% of the home games against bottom 10 teams, which West Ham almost certainly are. That equals odds of about 1.15, not the 1.25 offered by the bookies.
I can only think the bookies are going by older historical data about how the top 2 fare, but as you can see in this chart the big teams are getting better at winning as the years go by. But even if you go back 12 years the historical odds only rise to 1.21.
And if you look at last year's odds at Bet365 for example, you get 1.13, 1.14, 1.14, 1.17 for the visits of Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and QPR to Old Trafford, which is more in line with what I expect. Sure West Ham are better than those guys...
So after all that, I don't understand the price at all.
=================================
And I'm backing United Away to Reading @1.44, based on a guess I'm making about that trendline you see up top. The top2's away form hasn't improved in the last 12 years, except against the bottom teams, where the last 6 years have been very different from the previous 6. Given that the bookies overround is small, I think my confidence in my guess gives me a slight edge (like in Bayesian probability).
It was getting late when I posted that, so I didn't give enough explanation...
Ok, so according to that analysis you'd expect the top2 to be amassing more points as the years go on, and that is exactly what you see
So, the top2 might be getting better, and the last 6 years might be a better guide to how the teams will do than the last 12 years, which would underestimate the top2.
Win percentage of top 2 away
Last six season
Bottom 10 73%
9-15 61%
Bottom 5 83%
Last 12 seasons
Bottom 10 72%
9-15 62%
Bottom 5 55%
What I found very strange from going back further was that, unlike the last six seasons, which follows the trend you expect (You win more often against the bottom 5 than the bottom 10, and more often against the bottom 10 than the team 9-15), going back over 12 seasons shows the top teams lose much more against the bottom 5 than the bottom 10.
What's going on here?
1. Pure dumb chance. You win some you lose some, this is the way the apples have fallen.
2. The 12 yearl data is more accurate, and the top 2 fail to beat the bottom 5 more often away, because they are scrapping for survival. Your fancy dan Deco doesn't like it up him on a cold tuesday in december.
3. The trend of the top 2 getting better is accurate (and therefore the data from the last 6 seasons is more accurate), and when we look at the improvement we see it's coming mainly in home matches against the bottom 10, and away matches against the bottom 5. Home matches against the bottom 10, and away matches against the top 5 might be the easiest fixtures the top 2 face, and the improvement we see is from them being genuinely better these days at winning the easiest fixtures.
Now, we can't know for sure, but I'm inclined to think there's something to explanation 3, and give more weight to the data from the last 6 seasons (which means 88% chance of victory away to bottom 5) than the last 12 seasons (which means 55% chance of victory away to bottom 5).
And even if the top 2 weren't really getting better, and I'm confident they are, the underlying belief really should be that you should beat the bottom 5 away more often than you beat the bottom 10 away. Even without any of what I wrote above, I'd find data saying it's harder to beat the bottom 5 than the bottom 10 to probably be unreliable unless the sample size was quite large.
And of course the sample size for the bottom 10 is twice as big as it is for the bottom 5, so I'm more inclined to believe that.
Historically that means 72-73% chance of victory (odds of 1.36-1.4) against the bottom 10, and for reasons of common sense odds of even less that against the bottom 5.
So, for all those reasons, I think I'll be backing the top 2 away to the weakest teams this season, starting with United away to Reading at 1.45.0 -
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If you do back the top 2 away to the bottom 10 at odd's of 1.36-1.45 and you win 4 times in a row you spend 400 quid and win say 45-50 quid and then you loose one bet you are down 50-55 quid. Also taking a big loss will affect you in an obvious way.It was getting late when I posted that, so I didn't give enough explanation...
Ok, so according to that analysis you'd expect the top2 to be amassing more points as the years go on, and that is exactly what you see
So, the top2 might be getting better, and the last 6 years might be a better guide to how the teams will do than the last 12 years, which would underestimate the top2.
Win percentage of top 2 away
Last six season
Bottom 10 73%
9-15 61%
Bottom 5 83%
Last 12 seasons
Bottom 10 72%
9-15 62%
Bottom 5 55%
What I found very strange from going back further was that, unlike the last six seasons, which follows the trend you expect (You win more often against the bottom 5 than the bottom 10, and more often against the bottom 10 than the team 9-15), going back over 12 seasons shows the top teams lose much more against the bottom 5 than the bottom 10.
What's going on here?
1. Pure dumb chance. You win some you lose some, this is the way the apples have fallen.
2. The 12 yearl data is more accurate, and the top 2 fail to beat the bottom 5 more often away, because they are scrapping for survival. Your fancy dan Deco doesn't like it up him on a cold tuesday in december.
3. The trend of the top 2 getting better is accurate (and therefore the data from the last 6 seasons is more accurate), and when we look at the improvement we see it's coming mainly in home matches against the bottom 10, and away matches against the bottom 5. Home matches against the bottom 10, and away matches against the top 5 might be the easiest fixtures the top 2 face, and the improvement we see is from them being genuinely better these days at winning the easiest fixtures.
Now, we can't know for sure, but I'm inclined to think there's something to explanation 3, and give more weight to the data from the last 6 seasons (which means 88% chance of victory away to bottom 5) than the last 12 seasons (which means 55% chance of victory away to bottom 5).
And even if the top 2 weren't really getting better, and I'm confident they are, the underlying belief really should be that you should beat the bottom 5 away more often than you beat the bottom 10 away. Even without any of what I wrote above, I'd find data saying it's harder to beat the bottom 5 than the bottom 10 to probably be unreliable unless the sample size was quite large.
And of course the sample size for the bottom 10 is twice as big as it is for the bottom 5, so I'm more inclined to believe that.
Historically that means 72-73% chance of victory (odds of 1.36-1.4) against the bottom 10, and for reasons of common sense odds of even less that against the bottom 5.
So, for all those reasons, I think I'll be backing the top 2 away to the weakest teams this season, starting with United away to Reading at 1.45.0 -
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