The Football Tips Thread v3

Avfctom

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Fair enough mate! Just saying that if it were me I'd at least wait until closer to the games so you'll have a better idea of form, injuries etc. (For example Madrid could be in the form of their lives come February and RVP and Rooney could be sidelined)

It's not the kind of value bet that will see the odds drop drastically so you have to get on early and even if they shortened, I can't imagine them dropping below 15/1. It just makes more sense (to me) to wait. But it's your money and best of luck to you with the bet

Yh bud i wasunt going to place the bet now christmas has crippled my bank balance lol usually when i see a bet i like and have a few months to wait everytime i win a bet i throw s tenner on it and come when it starts i have 100+ riding on it and if i lose dont feel like iv lost a massive amount as its the odd tenner

SteelyDanJalapeno

So, odds on the champions league draw on Thursday pairing the exact same 8 games today?
over 2000000/1

Well done UEFA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uisidQxyo6Q

paul08

messi 5/4 with boyles to finish topscorer i see this as value, won it the last 4 yrs if im not mistaken. his main rivals van persie and ronaldo probably one will be out after this round, as well as this i do not fancy this milan team and think barca will have too much for them and by a distance

ConorCBS

ConorCBS wrote: »

Juventus to beat Cagliari @1.40.
PSG to beat Brest @1.57.
Atletico Madrid to beat Celta Vigo @1.25.
Man City to beat Reading @1.13.

€100 returns over €300.

What do people think of that?

Anyone see anything wrong with this? Thinking of going big on it and would just like a few extra opinions...

Avfctom

ConorCBS wrote: »

Anyone see anything wrong with this? Thinking of going big on it and would just like a few extra opinions...

Think it looks great tbh im having a treble of

Ath madrid
Juventus
Psg

But city is a cert so basically on the same bet

manual_man

paul08 wrote: »

messi 5/4 with boyles to finish topscorer i see this as value, won it the last 4 yrs if im not mistaken. his main rivals van persie and ronaldo probably one will be out after this round, as well as this i do not fancy this milan team and think barca will have too much for them and by a distance

ur probably right. am taking a small bit myself on Yilmaz(joint top scorer) 33/1(Hills) seems crazy odds with at least two legs to play and madrid possibly going out to united and (less so) Barca going out to Milan

this the table for anyone interested

Cristiano Ronaldo 6
Burak Yilmaz 6
Messi 5
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 4
Roberto Soldado 4
Robert Lewandowski 4
Jonas 4
Willian 4

edit: Hills are doing 1/4 odds with the each way (1-3 places) excellent value with Yilmaz in mind i think coz the next nearest scorers apart from Messi and Ronaldo are 2 goals behind him and we know these knockout games are often tight affairs

Smithwicks Man

PP Powerplay
Juve
Atletico
PSG
Valencia
4/1

ShamoBuc

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

PP Powerplay
Juve
Atletico
PSG
Valencia
4/1

Threw 100 on it. My Christmas bet - probably the biggest bet ever for me:eek:

manual_man

Hills online are rejecting my Yilmaz each way bet are they allowed do that

Lasagna Diarra

ConorCBS wrote: »

Anyone see anything wrong with this? Thinking of going big on it and would just like a few extra opinions...

Yes, there are too many teams You just know at least one of them will screw you over. Plus you have an Italian team in it.. just saw that Juve only beat Cagliari 1-0 at home recently so personally I'd take out Juventus.

Avfctom

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Threw 100 on it. My Christmas bet - probably the biggest bet ever for me:eek:

Valencia worry me

Austria!

TiltedBrain wrote: »

So, odds on the champions league draw on Thursday pairing the exact same 8 games today?
over 2000000/1

I'd love if you were a bookie. It's nowhere near that unlikely. Even 8! is only 40320. Back of the envelope tells me it's around 1400/1.

manual_man wrote: »

Hills online are rejecting my Yilmaz each way bet are they allowed do that

They limited me to just under €2 e/w.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Austria! wrote: »

I'd love if you were a bookie. It's nowhere near that unlikely. Even 8! is only 40320. Back of the envelope tells me it's around 1400/1.



They limited me to just under €2 e/w.

Semantics! I didn't compile the odds, taken from optajoe on twitter

manual_man

Austria! wrote: »

They limited me to just under €2 e/w.

yeah same...

i tried loads of times to bet more without success and now odds shortened to 16/1 (under half)

have emailed them an email complaint threatening to take my business elsewhere if they don't sort it out. see what happens

tinodz

I am on Deportivio to win @ 3/1 with a decent bet

They are fielding a near full strength team, and Espanyol are a few players of ideal - including a second string keeper.

There is a chance for something.

ShamoBuc

Avfctom wrote: »

Valencia worry me

Me too, they are certainly the most dodgy but I reckon I'll get a fairly good sweat off it.

ConorCBS

tinodz wrote: »

Espanyol are a few players of ideal - including a second string keeper.

He was excellent against Madrid at the weekend. It might be just a one off performance but he looked decent to me. He was very confident and controlling, came well for crosses and made some good saves.

tinodz

ConorCBS wrote: »

He was excellent against Madrid at the weekend. It might be just a one off performance but he looked decent to me. He was very confident and controlling, came well for crosses and made some good saves.

I am hoping it is more a lack of experience that leads to a screw up, if anything...

I am sure he is a okay keeper - but tbh i did forget he was the keeper for the Real game when making the bet.

Headshot

Lass any idea why the -1 AH on PSG tomorrow hasnt shorted by now?

Lasagna Diarra

Headshot wrote: »

Lass any idea why the -1 AH on PSG tomorrow hasnt shorted by now?

I read that Brest are gonna play with 5 at the back (Evian and Lyon did it too), they're hard to beat, Lyon, Marseille and recently Montpellier (who are back to their best) could only beat them by one goal. Also, the pitch might be bad cuz the weather's always ****ty in Britanny.

Headshot

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I read that Brest are gonna play with 5 at the back (Evian and Lyon did it too), they're hard to beat, Lyon, Marseille and recently Montpellier (who are back to their best) could only beat them by one goal. Also, the pitch might be bad cuz the weather's always ****ty in Britanny.

cheers for that

Do you think Brest are good enough to go 90mins defending like beavers?

Shane St.

Man City v Reading
The bookies clearly know which game is the biggest mismatch in the Premier League this weekend with the hosts as short as 1/7 for the win. Reading sit bottom of the league and on a run of 6 straight defeats. City sit 2nd 6points off their neighbours Utd and recovered with an impressive win and performance in beating Newcastle last weekend. There is nothing too exciting in the handicap market either. However, I like the look of Yaya Toure anytime at 7/5. The big Ivorian is fresh from being crowned African footballer of the year and has found the net in City's last 2 league games and after seeing how Carzorla was able to take advantages of his midfield runs into the box I can see him causing Reading problems.
Spurs v Stoke
This game pits the 4th best attack (Spurs have 30 goals in 17 games) against the best defense in the league (Stoke have only conceded 13 goals in 17 games). Looking at this game from a betting perspective I think unders is the way to go. Under 2.5 goals appeals at 3/4 for a couple of reasons. This bet has impressively collected in 14 of Stoke's 17 games and Stoke have kept clean sheets in their last 2 away games. While Spurs have no problems scoring as evidenced by their position in the scoring charts they have found it easier away from home (14 goals in 9 home games as opposed to 16 goals in 8 games on their travels). I can see Stoke really making life difficult for Spurs like Swansea did last week.
Taking into account Stoke's approach to this game I also like the look of Draw/Spurs at 3/1 in the HT/FT market. I think Spurs have the form and quality to eventually break down a stubborn Stoke side but it might require patience. Stoke have managed to shut out the opponents at half time in their last 3 away games (with the last 2 being goalless at the break) and I can see something similar happening here. Spurs have been goalless at half time in their last 3 games and gone on to win two. They have also won four of their last five, whereas Stoke have only one win away from home all season. With the return of Gareth Bale I expect the difference in quality to tell in the end.
Liverpool v Fulham
I say it nearly every weekend but again Liverpool are short at 8/15 to beat a decent Fulham side. Last weekend's defeat to Aston Villa has Liverpool's home reading 3 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats. These teams are separated by just 2 points in the league and I think Fulham have enough quality going forward to cause Liverpool problems. While short on wins on their travels they have managed 4 draws including taking points at tough places like Arsenal and Chelsea. I like the look of the draw here at 3/1.

munsterlegend

tinodz wrote: »

I am on Deportivio to win @ 3/1 with a decent bet

They are fielding a near full strength team, and Espanyol are a few players of ideal - including a second string keeper.

There is a chance for something.

Always hard to win away from home. Espanyol are in good form - was going to do three home victories but was hesitant as thought Sociedad-Sevilla could be a draw! Oh well.

Hoping for a PSG win tonight as have them in acca following victories for Porto,Benfica(just about) and Fenerbache on Wednesday night.

Shane St.

For 2night Atletico -1 at 4/5 looks good. After every league defeat so far they have bounced back with at least a one goal victory the next game.
The bet has also collected in their last four home games, while Celta have 7 defeats and one win away from home.

magherakid

Shane St. wrote: »

Man City v Reading
The bookies clearly know which game is the biggest mismatch in the Premier League this weekend with the hosts as short as 1/7 for the win. Reading sit bottom of the league and on a run of 6 straight defeats. City sit 2nd 6points off their neighbours Utd and recovered with an impressive win and performance in beating Newcastle last weekend. There is nothing too exciting in the handicap market either. However, I like the look of Yaya Toure anytime at 7/5. The big Ivorian is fresh from being crowned African footballer of the year and has found the net in City's last 2 league games and after seeing how Carzorla was able to take advantages of his midfield runs into the box I can see him causing Reading problems.

My main bet this weekend is Man City to win both halves 10/11

Matt_Trakker

Shane St. wrote: »

For 2night Atletico -1 at 4/5 looks good. After every league defeat so far they have bounced back with at least a one goal victory the next game.
The bet has also collected in their last four home games, while Celta have 7 defeats and one win away from home.

I'm all over that and gonna add At. Madrid HT/FT too. 1.73 on Bet 365
Of their 8 home games they've had 7 W/W at HT/FT
Had one D/W and that against Malaga

Falconno4

Las, any thoughts on the French 2nd Divison games on this evening ?Dijon on a decent bit of form beating Caen and Istres last 2 games, they are away to Arles this evening, and the price is 15/8.

Lasagna Diarra

Headshot wrote: »

cheers for that

Do you think Brest are good enough to go 90mins defending like beavers?

It all depends on PSG, if they're not already thinking about the holidays and if they don't underestimate Brest, I just can't see them fail to beat Brest. Brest have a really good GK and strikers who can score goals, but the rest is very poor.

Montpellier had 19 shots in total when they played in Brest, Marseille had 20...if Brest don't play very defensive, it could get ugly for them.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

It all depends on PSG, if they're not already thinking about the holidays and if they don't underestimate Brest, I just can't see them fail to beat Brest. Brest have a really good GK and strikers who can score goals, but the rest is very poor.

Montpellier had 19 shots in total when they played in Brest, Marseille had 20...if Brest don't play very defensive, it could get ugly for them.

Could be one to get on in play if Brest can hold them out for a while,

Lasagna Diarra

Falconno4 wrote: »

Las, any thoughts on the French 2nd Divison games on this evening ?Dijon on a decent bit of form beating Caen and Istres last 2 games, they are away to Arles this evening, and the price is 15/8.

The French 2nd division is too unpredictable imo, anyone can beat anyone... the only bet I'd fancy is Lens double chance, they haven't lost in 11 games under their new coach, I watched their last game and they play really good football.