The Football Tips Thread v3

ConorCBS

ConorCBS wrote: »

Happy New Year to everyone, I hope we can all have a successful and profitable 2013.

Chelsea vs. QPR.

Chelsea have been performing well lately and have won their last 4 matches, looking impressive in the process. Chelsea destroyed Aston Villa 8-0 before getting impressive away victories at Norwich and Everton. Things finally looked to have clicked for Chelsea with Benitez in charge after a rough start. Chelsea have kept clean sheets in 100% of their home Premier League matches under Benitez. QPR are terrible and sit in last place with a solid 10 points from 20 games. They lost 3-0 to Liverpool last weekend and they looked toothless. Petr Cech is out injured for Chelsea, while Mata, Hazard, and Cole are all being rested, but hopefully Chelsea will still be solid enough to offer some protection to Turnbull. Oh, and QPR's centre-back pairing has a combined age of 69.

€50 - Chelsea to win to nil @2.00.

Still another 363 days left. Time to recover and bounce back with a win.

ConorCBS

Freamunde vs. Belenenses.

I can't argue against a team who have won their last 8 matches in a row, are unbeaten in 13, and have kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 10 matches. They play a Freamunde side who lie in 21st position, although they have improved in recent weeks.

€50 - Belenenses to win @1.70.

clickerquicklic

Alot of people saying they are done with betting etc after that Chelsea result , i nearly lost all my money lots of times backing these sure things , i'm not saying don't back them but if your pushing all in all the time its the quick way to the poor house , maybe new years resolution should be divide your bank up and only bet 1-2% of it per bet , you will get the same enjoyment of winning and less likely to go broke , sorry for butting my nose in i know alot bet for fun only .

Austria!

Just out of curiosity, how many people here are profitable over the longer term? Like the last 2 years or whenever you got serious about gambling.

Rekop dog

First time I backed Liverpool in a long time tonight.

Patsy fyre

Rekop dog wrote: »

Fist time I backed Liverpool in a long time tonight.

That was brave, fair play.

Luap

Rekop dog wrote: »

Fist time I backed Liverpool in a long time tonight.

Nice one, I wouldnt have the balls tbh. :cool:

Rekop dog

Yeah have my own rating system, *very* seldom a Liverpool price would standout as value in it, speaks volumes about Sunderland tbh.

Randomfriend

Austria! wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, how many people here are profitable over the longer term? Like the last 2 years or whenever you got serious about gambling.

I'm in college so I don't need to make a fortune to support myself, but I did quit my job and pay for everything through my winnings, its very possible even from a small bankroll as long as you don't get silly with your staking and avoid chasing losses.

Drac the Bassman

Just goes to prove there is no such thing as a CERT in gambling!!!

As an ex betting shop manager, I have seen some very large stakes both won and lost, when they win, the punters are the happiest on earth but when they lose, don't go near them until their next winner.

Such a fickle lot are punters (and I include myself in that but at least my days as a manager taught me to only bet for fun)

Loafing Oaf

Aaargh. I had money on a Newcastle/Everton half-time/full-time (and then an in-game bet on Everton to win 3-1). Surely you deserve something when you get so close.

Austria! wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, how many people here are profitable over the longer term? Like the last 2 years or whenever you got serious about gambling.

I'm a bit up overall. Made a €500 lodgement from my William Hill account a couple of months ago after a couple of wins on the Ryder Cup. Also won €1000 on a crazily large bet on a 'sure thing' at the last general election but I don't count that as real betting (probably the most nerve-wracking thing I've ever done btw). I reckon I could stay slightly up if I stick to football and other stuff I know a bit about, but famous last words and all that...

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Right tonight:

Going with Hibs against Hearts backing Hibs for value hoping they take the lead and plan on cashing out early if they do. If not I'll just let it ride. Will have a few euros on Hibs +1 on the handicap as well.

ConorCBS

ConorCBS wrote: »

Freamunde vs. Belenenses.

I can't argue against a team who have won their last 8 matches in a row, are unbeaten in 13, and have kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 10 matches. They play a Freamunde side who lie in 21st position, although they have improved in recent weeks.

€50 - Belenenses to win @1.70.

Have now dropped to around 1.50. Hopefully that is a good sign.

langer91

ConorCBS wrote: »

Have now dropped to around 1.50. Hopefully that is a good sign.

followed you on this with 35

Lasagna Diarra

Looking at the French Cup games on Saturday, the bet that stands out for me is:
Le Havre (2nd division) @ 1.57 (vs Belfort - 4th division)

Le Havre are in good form with 4 wins in their last 5 league games, and they have a new coach who will surely want to start with a win. Their new coach is the former France U21 coach and he did quite well with them.
I read the reactions of some of the Belfort players after the draw was made, and they were all disappointed not to have been drawn against a Ligue 1 team, so even though it's still pros vs amateurs, I don't think they'll be as motivated as if they were playing a Ligue 1 team.
In the previous round, Belfort struggled to beat an 8th division team (1-0).

magherakid

Hearts v Hibs
Over 2.5 Goals 21/20
Hearts to score a penalty 5/1
Hibs to score a penalty 15/2
Edinburgh derby tonight fancy goals in this one main bet is overs

Randomfriend

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Looking at the French Cup games on Saturday, the bet that stands out for me is:
Le Havre (2nd division) @ 1.57 (vs Belfort - 4th division)

Le Havre are in good form with 4 wins in their last 5 league games, and they have a new coach who will surely want to start with a win. Their new coach is the former France U21 coach and he did quite well with them.
I read the reactions of some of the Belfort players after the draw was made, and they were all disappointed not to have been drawn against a Ligue 1 team, so even though it's still pros vs amateurs, I don't think they'll be as motivated as if they were playing a Ligue 1 team.
In the previous round, Belfort struggled to beat an 8th division team (1-0).

Its as big as 1.75 some places if your able to shop around a bit, but I think I remember you saying your betting options are pretty limited. But anyway yeah..

actually found it @1.8 on 188BET as well, but I don't have an account there

tinodz

No bet from me, for reason explained yesterday, but I was looking at the stats for the match (that's still fun), and Griffiths Anytime @ 2/1 is a decent shout IMO.

Best strike rate on the pitch tonight (most goals per minute), and will be PK taker for Hibs as well (it should be a heated encounter, and there could be one)

GL if anyone follows - but sorry if my bad luck rubs off on you.

magherakid

tinodz wrote: »

No bet from me, for reason explained yesterday, but I was looking at the stats for the match (that's still fun), and Griffiths Anytime @ 2/1 is a decent shout IMO.

Best strike rate on the pitch tonight (most goals per minute), and will be PK taker for Hibs as well (it should be a heated encounter, and there could be one)

GL if anyone follows - but sorry if my bad luck rubs off on you.

Good chance Hearts missing 2 players in defence Andy Webster and Ryan McGowan

BBoyle88

magherakid wrote: »

Hearts v Hibs
Over 2.5 Goals 21/20
Hearts to score a penalty 5/1
Hibs to score a penalty 15/2
Edinburgh derby tonight fancy goals in this one main bet is overs

I actually fancy unders in this game.
I've watched hibs recently and they seem pretty toothless. Both teams lack quality up front and will keep this tight. Both teams would be happy with the draw so that's what I'm edging towards but hearts' record in the fixture is impressive

Lasagna Diarra

Another French Cup game:
Savigneux Montbrison (8th division) vs Minguettes Venissieux (5th division)

I have two small bets on:
Venissieux double chance @ 2.10
Venissieux @ 5.75

Montbrison are favourites cuz in the last 2 rounds they knocked out a 5th division team and a 4th division one, but now the surprise factor is gone and I doubt they can pull another upset. It's pretty rare that a team pulls 3 upsets in a row in this cup.
In the last 2 rounds, Venissieux knocked out a 4th division team and a 7th division one (both games went to penalties)

Austria!

Stoke are unbeaten at home, where they have drawn 50% of their games. Draws included top teams like Man City, Everton and Arsenal. The only big team they managed to beat were Liverpool.

The way I see it, Chelsea are a big team who probably won't lose, Stoke have an unbeaten home record. The draw is at 3.75. I'd have it a lot less.


BTW, do bookies have to pay out on the odds you made a bet at? I got 100-1 on a FGS last week but only 12-1 was paid out. I accept 100-1 must have been an error, but that's not my fault. My receipt says 100-1.

Lasagna Diarra

Randomfriend wrote: »

Its as big as 1.75 some places if your able to shop around a bit, but I think I remember you saying your betting options are pretty limited. But anyway yeah..

actually found it @1.8 on 188BET as well, but I don't have an account there

Yup the only foreign bookie allowed here is Bwin

FlawedGenius

Lassagna are u French or are you an Irish/English fella living in France??

Headshot

He's alien, a legal alien
An Englishman in New York

Lasagna Diarra

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Lassagna are u French or are you an Irish/English fella living in France??

I'm French, I thought my poor English would've been a dead giveaway

Randomfriend

Austria! wrote: »

Stoke are unbeaten at home, where they have drawn 50% of their games. Draws included top teams like Man City, Everton and Arsenal. The only big team they managed to beat were Liverpool.

The way I see it, Chelsea are a big team who probably won't lose, Stoke have an unbeaten home record. The draw is at 3.75. I'd have it a lot less.


BTW, do bookies have to pay out on the odds you made a bet at? I got 100-1 on a FGS last week but only 12-1 was paid out. I accept 100-1 must have been an error, but that's not my fault. My receipt says 100-1.

Multiple times Ladbrokes have made errors in their odds and paid out at those odds for me, the last big one was getting Newcastle +2 at 13/2 when the match was 2-2 if I remember correctly, I got a lad to hold serve in a tennis match at about 9/4 recently too when it should have been 1/12.

Depends on the bookie I guess.

ben.schlomo

Austria! wrote: »

Stoke are unbeaten at home, where they have drawn 50% of their games. Draws included top teams like Man City, Everton and Arsenal. The only big team they managed to beat were Liverpool.

The way I see it, Chelsea are a big team who probably won't lose, Stoke have an unbeaten home record. The draw is at 3.75. I'd have it a lot less.


BTW, do bookies have to pay out on the odds you made a bet at? I got 100-1 on a FGS last week but only 12-1 was paid out. I accept 100-1 must have been an error, but that's not my fault. My receipt says 100-1.

No its at their discretion as they will quickly point out.

BBoyle88

BBoyle88 wrote: »

I actually fancy unders in this game.
I've watched hibs recently and they seem pretty toothless. Both teams lack quality up front and will keep this tight. Both teams would be happy with the draw so that's what I'm edging towards but hearts' record in the fixture is impressive

Lovely! Watched it and both teams are really really poor going forward. Both teams happy with the result.

FlawedGenius

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I'm French, I thought my poor English would've been a dead giveaway

Haha:D I'm shocked at that to be honest. Better on the keyboard than a lot of us:eek: