The Football Tips Thread v3

deckycoop

ConorCBS wrote: »

Have now dropped to around 1.50. Hopefully that is a good sign.

wat a close 1. 90min goal for a draw.

Smithwicks Man

Serie A double for the weekend.

Milan @ 1/3
Catania @ Evens

Milan 5-0-4 (Home) vs Siena 1-2-5 (Away)

Catania 6-1-2 (Home) vs Torino 1-6-2 (Away)

Milan due to sell Pato and possibly Robinho quite soon but that should have little to no impact as neither featured too heavily in the first half of the season. Hoping the team will be fired up as well after the nonsense antics today.

Catania are renowned for being strong at home and while Torino aren't the worst travelers and often look to snatch the draw they are without their star player Ogbonna so I'm hoping Catania will have too much for them.

Taking the double @ 2.67 with a medium stake.

ConorCBS

Any thoughts on the Portsmouth match tonight?

CucaFace

I think Villa at home to Ipswich (who are going to play a weakened team) at 10/11 is realy good value.

Villa really don't have the numbers to drop too many plus will also need the win as a confidence boost to team morale badl so will be taking it very seriously.

Matt_Trakker

Real Zaragoza v Real Betis, tonight

Betis are priced something mad for this, Bet365 have them @3.10, Marathon are @3.35
They have the best away record in the league (apart from Bara), averaging 2 points per game, having won 5 from the last 8 on the road, getting 1 draw & losing 2.

Zaragoza have lost 5/8 at home and have won 3.
Zaragoza have 0 clean sheets in the last 8 and have failed to score in 5/8 as well.
Betis have scored at least one goal in 6/8 away games.


Even the AH +0.5 for Betis is decently priced, Pinnacle are offering 1.69

Lord TSC

Anyone know why Newcastle are 6/4 on PP to beat Brighton tomorrow? Have they said they are playing a kids team or something?

ben.schlomo

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Anyone know why Newcastle are 6/4 on PP to beat Brighton tomorrow? Have they said they are playing a kids team or something?

Probably because Newcastle have lost their last 5 away, are in poor form and missing players, you would think Pardew will probably make a couple f changes too. Brighton have been good this season, loss to Watford was their only one in last 5 at home.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Anyone know why Newcastle are 6/4 on PP to beat Brighton tomorrow? Have they said they are playing a kids team or something?

Newcastle have not won away from home yet this season so I would say that probably has something to do with it.

Draw in this one looks a good bet to me.

CucaFace

Wigan at home to Bournemouth at 5/6 looks like great value as well.

bohsman

PP enhanced special of United, Chelsea and Newcastle at 8.5 for me at low stakes for a bit of interest.

rossit

CucaFace wrote: »

Wigan at home to Bournemouth at 5/6 looks like great value as well.

bournemouth 4 wins i draw 12 scored 2 conceeded

CucaFace

rossit wrote: »

bournemouth 4 wins i draw 12 scored 2 conceeded

Fair point.

I still think Wigan at home will have too much for them, obviously dependant on the team Martinez plays.

Just think that nearly evens at home for a PL team againest a L1 side is good value.

eh i dunno

CucaFace wrote: »

Fair point.

I still think Wigan at home will have too much for them, obviously dependant on the team Martinez plays.

Just think that nearly evens at home for a PL team againest a L1 side is good value.

Wigan always play a weak team in the cup as far as i can remember
4 wins from last 17 in the cup http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2013/01/05/england/fa-cup/wigan-athletic-football-club/afc-bournemouth/1417787/

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Another French Cup game:
Savigneux Montbrison (8th division) vs Minguettes Venissieux (5th division)

I have two small bets on:
Venissieux double chance @ 2.10
Venissieux @ 5.75

Montbrison are favourites cuz in the last 2 rounds they knocked out a 5th division team and a 4th division one, but now the surprise factor is gone and I doubt they can pull another upset. It's pretty rare that a team pulls 3 upsets in a row in this cup.
In the last 2 rounds, Venissieux knocked out a 4th division team and a 7th division one (both games went to penalties)

I just read that last year these two teams already met in the cup and Savigneux won 2-1 (thanks to an amazing free kick at the 91st min), so now I'm even more confident about Venissieux not losing this game. They'll want to take their revenge tomorrow. Also, this is a historical game for both teams and so they'll probably play very cautious and it should go to extra time/penalties. Double chance looks very good imo.

ben.schlomo

CucaFace wrote: »

Fair point.

I still think Wigan at home will have too much for them, obviously dependant on the team Martinez plays.

Just think that nearly evens at home for a PL team againest a L1 side is good value.

Havent looked for prices but Bournemouth are surely worth an interest in this, as has been said Wigan never give a hoot about the cups and always change their team while Bournemouth are in a rich vein of form.

grohlisagod

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Anyone know why Newcastle are 6/4 on PP to beat Brighton tomorrow? Have they said they are playing a kids team or something?

Think Brighton knocked Newcastle out of the cup last season too.

mailburner

backing cup football a recipe for disaster

wait till the teams are announced

big price wigan alright
ill be getting ready to pounce depending on the team
wonder if they are bothered at all though with premiership
survival most important

Fanny Biscuit

My new years resoultion is to wait on team line up's before placing a bet.

Rackstar

mailburner wrote: »

backing cup football a recipe for disaster

wait till the teams are announced

big price wigan alright
ill be getting ready to pounce depending on the team
wonder if they are bothered at all though with premiership
survival most important

Got stung badly by Wigan last year in the cup!! They went out to Bradford if I remember right! Wait for the line up

Lasagna Diarra

Yea Wigan are a joke, couldn't score a goal in 120 min against a League Two side who were missing their two regular CBs. I'd never back them again even if they were playing an U15 team.

BBoyle88

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Yea Wigan are a joke, couldn't score a goal in 120 min against a League Two side who were missing their two regular CBs. I'd never back them again even if they were playing an U15 team.

That's harsh on Wigan, they beat Aston villa away 3-0 last week but were well beaten by united.
With regards to Bradford, didn't they knock arsenal out also?
Wigan beat notts forest 4-1 and west ham 4-1 in the Capitol one cup both away from home this season.
The lads are right about waiting for team news but I have been impressed by Wigan this season and have had a difficult run of fixs playing city, united and arsenal recently.
The shackles will be off and I expect Wigan to play with freedom. Why are these small teams feared all of a sudden? They're in the lower leagues on merit.

ShamoBuc

BBoyle88 wrote: »

That's harsh on Wigan, they beat Aston villa away 3-0 last week but were well beaten by united.
With regards to Bradford, didn't they knock arsenal out also?
Wigan beat notts forest 4-1 and west ham 4-1 in the Capitol one cup both away from home this season.
The lads are right about waiting for team news but I have been impressed by Wigan this season and have had a difficult run of fixs playing city, united and arsenal recently.
The shackles will be off and I expect Wigan to play with freedom. Why are these small teams feared all of a sudden? They're in the lower leagues on merit.

Because it's the FA cup and there will be shocks! - I've backed Bournemouth in this one, 10/3 is a good price given they really are on a roll.

BBoyle88

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Because it's the FA cup and there will be shocks! - I've backed Bournemouth in this one, 10/3 is a good price given they really are on a roll.

Fair enough, best of luck!

BBoyle88

Last season 7 prem teams played lower league opposition at home in the 3rd round.

7 home wins

ShamoBuc

BBoyle88 wrote: »

Last season 7 prem teams played lower league opposition at home in the 3rd round.

7 home wins

Bet ye that won't happen again:pac:

ConorCBS

Anyone think BTTS No in the Liverpool match is worth a shot @1.80? Yes they will play a weakened team but they are playing a conference side, so the gap in quality is massive.

Lasagna Diarra

The Savigneux vs Venissieux game has been removed from all bookies except for PP according to oddschecker - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/france/coupe-de-france/savigneux-v-minguettes-venissieux/winner

edit: just refreshed and now it's back... there has to be something going on...

Vurnon San Benito

Goals Galore bet for me tomorrow:

Charlton v Huddersfield
Crewe - Stevenage
QPR - West Brom
Leeds - Birmingham

8/1.

Should give me a run for me money!

FlawedGenius

ConorCBS wrote: »

Anyone think BTTS No in the Liverpool match is worth a shot @1.80? Yes they will play a weakened team but they are playing a conference side, so the gap in quality is massive.

Better off taking Liverpool to win to nil then at 6/5 ladbrokes then? Or can u really see Mansfield nicking it or getting a 0-0 against a Liverpool side in good form? If Suarez plays Il be taking the win to nil bet.

applehunter

Will wait for lineups before committing anything tomorrow.

at 1st glance.

Fulham
Wigan
Sunderland

All look nicely priced.