Gold

euroboom13

After the banking crisis it was a place to preserve wealth but due to all the fear in the market it was way over sold.Now it is returning to a more relieable level.The supply of money has also increased massively so it is hard to predict where its realistic bottom is.

My quess is further falls but with the value of currency changing dailly it is one i would just prefer to watch rather than risk shorting now.Within 30% of bottom is my guess.

I am glad that bullish talk has stopped.

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

After the banking crisis it was a place to preserve wealth but due to all the fear in the market it was way over sold.Now it is returning to a more relieable level.The supply of money has also increased massively so it is hard to predict where its realistic bottom is.

My quess is further falls but with the value of currency changing dailly it is one i would just prefer to watch rather than risk shorting now.Within 30% of bottom is my guess.

I am glad that bullish talk has stopped.

There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start.

DarkDusk

uberalles wrote: »

Any reason for recent drops?

War
No war
World in recovery?

Is it likely to drop more?

Overnight manipulation, just like last time...

uberalles

DarkDusk wrote: »

Overnight manipulation, just like last time...

Can you explain more?

In your opinion is it a temp blip downwards?

DarkDusk

uberalles wrote: »

Can you explain more?

In your opinion is it a temp blip downwards?

This article should answer many of your questions, the first graph says it all...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42242.html

euroboom13

"There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start. "roonbox



Gold v dollar was at a realistic level 03 to 05 $350
Than it rocketed while the dollars value varried very little.
Now the dollar value has probably decreased (in my est )x3 ,which would put a gold value of about $1000/$1200 .

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

Nothing wrong here!

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

euroboom13

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

No Bubble.
If a house worth 300k in 2003 went to 1.8m in 2012,and then fell to 1.3m in 2013.What would you call that a bear trap,I`d be seriously re-thinking that one.

Gold has had hugh infation since 2003......300 to 1800(x6)?


(We had a massive property bubble here from 1998/2007,we all agree!
where a 3bed semi went from 150K to 420K(not near 900k),and in some instants, greater gains, but i have never seen x6 increase property ,in a time frame of a decade,not even in celtic tiger)

Brush up on bubbles?

zpehtsfd

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think you have to brush up on the defintion of a bubble. The increase in gold price in recent years has not come anywhere close to what we have seen in stocks, property and oil in the past.

$250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011's record high at $1,920.30. That's an 8-fold increase.

Many people think gold has just burst its bubble, but my in my opinion it is just a bear trap, before the actual bubble.

Personally i don't know anyone who thinks otherwise. Back in April, Gold had its largest 2-day loss in over 25 years, in which the Gold ETF traded its highest volume EVER. Also the MACD indicator was below the zero line for the first time since 2000. The chart is in a bearish trend and the long term uptrend is ending. Even a Bank Crisis coupled with WW3 (you wish ) wouldn't change this broken chart.

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

"There is so much wrong with this statement I don't know where to start. "roonbox



Gold v dollar was at a realistic level 03 to 05 $350
Than it rocketed while the dollars value varried very little.
Now the dollar value has probably decreased (in my est )x3 ,which would put a gold value of about $1000/$1200 .

Goldbugs see $decline as a sign for upward gold price but i say that gold is retreating from its bubble and a realistic meeting point is around $1000

Nothing wrong here!

How did you calculate the 'realistic level' for Gold?

What is 'realistic'?

I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run.

Roonbox

zpehtsfd wrote: »

$250 an ounce in 2001 to 2011's record high at $1,920.30. That's an 8-fold increase.


Personally i don't know anyone who thinks otherwise.

That sentence alone should be ringing alarm bells.

euroboom13

Roonbox wrote: »

How did you calculate the 'realistic level' for Gold?

What is 'realistic'?

I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run.

It is up to every individual investor to work out his own realistic gold value!

I personally feel that gold was stable, at a cash value $300/$400 ,in the years2000/3 and taking into account the increase in cash in circulation now, due to qe and other means ,i feel $1000/$1200 is generous.I may have over estimated this amount of new liquidity ,which would cause for a greater decline in gold price.

If gold hits greater than 1months min wage an ounce ,i personally believe it would be worth spending the summer months panning by a stream.Even at todays prices there appears to be an increase in first time prospecters.

Gold has only got a speculative value and so price bought at ,is the only chance of return!

euroboom13

"I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run."Roonbox

Since gold has only a speculative value ,the trick is to buy at the bottom and not to try and predict a greater high.I love gambling but that aint giving yourself much of a chance.Even if you were trying to spot a price some where below midway, might be worth a punt,but chasing highs is crazy.

euroboom13

Sorry Roonbox,
I have in my own head that you where another max kieser goldbug.I have read some of your old posts and you appear to have bought gold/silver at a very insightful time.I still believe my estimate of a fall to $1000 is coming but if i bought in at around $800 or less i wouldnt be too worried about it eitherway!I also agree that there will be new highs,but i personally wont be chasing them just yet!
Hope you have done well.

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

"I don't believe we have seen the top in Gold, or anything close. We are having a healthy correction after a 12 year run."Roonbox

Since gold has only a speculative value ,the trick is to buy at the bottom and not to try and predict a greater high.I love gambling but that aint giving yourself much of a chance.Even if you were trying to spot a price some where below midway, might be worth a punt,but chasing highs is crazy.

the whole world is chasing yield, particularity with the amount of easy credit floating around...

the US cant raise rates or taper without their economy tanking, or if they do taper, and then things tank, they will then untaper the taper

so cash is flowing into the usual 2003-2006 speculative investments

gold is a deemed a safe haven from risk and a currency crisis, look at the amount of physical been bought, the ETF's and derivatives crap all have a massive amount of third party risk.

like anything, the price of it is what someone is willing to pay, it is what it is at the moment.

Should interest rates rise, I'll then consider selling my pm's, until then, I'm happy staying out of dodge, you may consider gold dodge, but i guess that's your opinion

So, i'm hoping I can exchange my pm's for fiat/stocks/property during the next crisis, and lets face it, there will be a crisis at some point in the near future

The good thing about the GFC is that it has put a spotlight on how crooked the financial industry is

zpehtsfd

Roonbox wrote: »

That sentence alone should be ringing alarm bells.

The people i speak to about Gold are commodity experts and market technicians. They've sold out the majority of their positions in the last 6 months or so.

Long term bearish trend is here. Next stop is $1.160. imo.

Thelonious

The fed announces no plans to scale back quantitative easing and gold prices soar 50 dollars in a day. This after the brazen manipulation of the price the other day. You don't have to be a genius to figure out what happened.

uncle_mick

Thelonious wrote: »

The fed announces no plans to scale back quantitative easing and gold prices soar 50 dollars in a day. This after the brazen manipulation of the price the other day. You don't have to be a genius to figure out what happened.

anyone who bought silver earlier today will have a smile on their face going to bed tonite , metals are always a high risk - high reward bet around fed meeting

Value Hunter

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

DarkDusk

Value Hunter wrote: »

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

A problem lies in your theory, the Fed actually can't un-taper because it would totally destroy the economy. The US and countries around the world depend on QE (alone) to keep their economies afloat - take it away and everything comes crashing down.

The inflation from QE also has not leaked into commodities properly yet. Some has leaked into oil recently but when the bond bubble bursts, which will happen when the Fed "try" to un-taper", all of the money will be taken out of bonds and people will seek gold for a safe haven.

To believe that the Fed can un-taper without consequence, and even to sell bonds after un-tapering, is ridiculous. Look how interest rates jumped with taper-talk, that is very bearish for the economy. If the Fed actually took away QE how would the US Gov pay their bills? Imagine how far interest rates would shoot.

People need to understand that QE is not like a drug, but it is a drug. It has short-term diminishing returns and the withdrawal symptoms will be experienced when it is taken away.

DarkDusk

DarkDusk wrote: »

I actually can't wait until September to see what action the Fed will make regarding monetary policy, should be very interesting...

:rolleyes:

Low Energy Eng

Value Hunter wrote: »

As soon as the Fed does start to taper gold will decline significantly.

That's the main reason its dropped this year, and it will continue to drop while QE is winding down

Those betting on gold soaring when QE ends are on the completely wrong trade, QE has caused the massive increase in gold, when it ends gold will suffer.

Just look at today, fed says it hasn't tapered and gold rises 3%

Just look at the QE vs Gold Price chart.

QE tapering/ending will drive down gold. After QE ends will be the time to look at investing in gold

Buy Low Sell High!!!



All the biggest money managers are leaving gold like rats from a sinking ship

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/hedge-funds-cut-gold-bets-as-paulson-s-loss-widens-commodities.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/gold-bulls-cut-wagers-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html

The main reason their selling? QE Ending!

Sell your gold

When QE ends if you's still think the economy is going to tank/ the world end then buy it again at a large discount to its current price.

how many years of QE'n does it take before people realise they can't veer of some form of easing?

euroboom13

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

the whole world is chasing yield, particularity with the amount of easy credit floating around...

the US cant raise rates or taper without their economy tanking, or if they do taper, and then things tank, they will then untaper the taper

so cash is flowing into the usual 2003-2006 speculative investments

gold is a deemed a safe haven from risk and a currency crisis, look at the amount of physical been bought, the ETF's and derivatives crap all have a massive amount of third party risk.

like anything, the price of it is what someone is willing to pay, it is what it is at the moment.

Should interest rates rise, I'll then consider selling my pm's, until then, I'm happy staying out of dodge, you may consider gold dodge, but i guess that's your opinion

So, i'm hoping I can exchange my pm's for fiat/stocks/property during the next crisis, and lets face it, there will be a crisis at some point in the near future

The good thing about the GFC is that it has put a spotlight on how crooked the financial industry is

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

I wouldn't depend on the central banks to do the "right thing"...

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

There is less chance now of a crisis than there was in 2007(my opinion)...2006/7 was the time to chase panic,and now is the time to chase risk ,not safety.

I know what you mean and fair play, you've probably done very well over the past few years, I just think that once the physical has traded hands to the creditor nations then they will walk away from the dollar.

euroboom13 wrote: »

All central banks are trying to make investment/risk more attractive and in the end ,they will succeed!The whole point of these policies is to kill safe havens and drive investment/risk.The central banks were caught out in 2007,they have their eye on the ball and are nowhere near another desaster.

Well yes, that's it, they are forcing people to take risks and speculate, which is likely to end very badly, hence the pumping of bubbles in order to keep the economies afloat.
The central banks were caught out in 2007 which shows how incompetent the government/central banks are, I wouldn't say they have their eye on any ball.

euroboom13 wrote: »

.They could do some sort of major currency debasement overnight to end qe,which would give good gains to gold but risky investments would also rally.....The plan in my opinion is to incourage an equity driven recovery,and thats what i see happening.

How major are we talking here? Risk investments wouldn't rally, anything denominated in USD or related to the USD will crash as people will loose faith in the dollar.

euroboom13 wrote: »

Stay with gold and survive but stay with equities and thrive.

Ye, no I'm not convinced mate.

euroboom13

fdr renewed fiath in the dollar by repricing it, relative to gold ,from $20 to $35 overnight...1933

germany done something similar by introducing a new mark overnight,in the 1920s

This would pay well for gold investments but i cant see something like that going down to well.

What ever the solution is,it will be inflationary.

Mahou

Does anyone see a gold rally if the US debt ceiling issue gets complicated? The chart showing the correlation between the gold price and the increase in the debt limit used to be quite sexy from a gold holders perspective.

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

fdr renewed fiath in the dollar by repricing it, relative to gold ,from $20 to $35 overnight...1933

germany done something similar by introducing a new mark overnight,in the 1920s

This would pay well for gold investments but i cant see something like that going down to well.

What ever the solution is,it will be inflationary.

back then the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, now they import all their goods, it doesn't matter if they devalue by 50%, it just means the debt will stack up twice as fast

euroboom13

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

back then the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, now they import all their goods, it doesn't matter if they devalue by 50%, it just means the debt will stack up twice as fast

apple/microsoft(nokia)/intel/dell/blackberry/fb/twitter/ibm....etc

if obama did risk something like this ,it may be only a short time before levi/general motors/ford/crysler etc become global brands again.Wouldn`t be impossible to compete with over stretched china(their $ credit would half).The tide could turn.To me it is the only solution for an American recovery.When is the question?$2=e1:)$3=e1:D

gordongekko

Gold is now below 1300 its squeaky bum time for some highly indebted miners. Some of them are boarder line profitable at this level.

Low Energy Eng

euroboom13 wrote: »

apple/microsoft(nokia)/intel/dell/blackberry/fb/twitter/ibm....etc

apple products are made in china...the design is in the US, this doesn't bring money into the US

didnt dell move its manufacturing from ireland to poland?

fb is a service, doesn't bring money into the US. completly overvalued in this current stock bubble

twitter-same as fb

i dont know about microsoft a blackerry, but im sure a bit of homework and i'd find out most the parts are manufactured in china.

euroboom13 wrote: »

if obama did risk something like this ,it may be only a short time before levi/general motors/ford/crysler etc become global brands again.Wouldn`t be impossible to compete with over stretched china(their $ credit would half).The tide could turn.To me it is the only solution for an American recovery.When is the question?$2=e1:)$3=e1:D

hence one should buy gold to hedge this, as the only thing central bankers and governments know is to devalue.

euroboom13

hence one should buy gold to hedge this, as the only thing central bankers and governments know is to devalue. [/QUOTE]

One thing is for sure ,gold will start to push new highs(at some point) ,but compared to real gains in "percieved" riskier equity,gold wont add up.Sit in gold as it doubles ,while equity recoveries triple.

GOLD has been a very poor hedge against QE and will be proven to be a poor inflation insulator,when it kicks off!

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

GOLD has been a very poor hedge against QE and will be proven to be a poor inflation insulator,when it kicks off!

The majority of people think that there will not be inflation in the future and no consequences of the central banks' QE programs. This is the reason why gold is not seeing highs right now.

But when reality hits.....

euroboom13

Gold still having a bad time!
$1140

Where are the gold bugs now?
They sure put up a good fight last year.

euroboom13

euroboom13 wrote: »

1)All currencies are completely aware of possible collaspe,which makes it extremely less likely than when they were hit by The major banking crisis!


2)There is no morgaged backed property market at the moment.When the time is right for property inflation,investors and banks will jump in.We are nearly at that point where inflation and interest rates start to recover,making investment attractive.Negative equity will reduce quickly,morgage debt will be more attractive to honour.Interest rates will go up ,along with rent yields (and inflation).[/I]


f3)ed is more interested in the value of the $ than qe.



.
4)US energy is going through a complete change.Ramped up production and storage.Why?In my opinion it is preparing for a price war.gold/oil prices are completely related to this.That is why i wont be getting involved with either at this time![/I]


5)I see major financial crisis in the middle east first.We are already seeing increased political change.Final changes will happen when gold and oil prices bottom out!

All i know is what is happening now ,only makes sence ,if you factor in the middle east and why it is still booming(high gold/high oil).[/I]

???

Cute Hoor

DarkDusk wrote: »

The majority of people think that there will not be inflation in the future and no consequences of the central banks' QE programs. This is the reason why gold is not seeing highs right now.

But when reality hits.....

How are you faring out at the moment on your investments in precious metals?

sword1

Cute Hoor wrote: »

How are you faring out at the moment on your investments in precious metals?

Had a look at his posts, not active in 4 month so, shocked to see he
only did junior cert in 2011, you would think he was a lot older from the strength of his opinions /arrogance

DarkDusk

sword1 wrote: »

Had a look at his posts, not active in 4 month so, shocked to see he
only did junior cert in 2011, you would think he was a lot older from the strength of his opinions /arrogance

I addressed Euroboom regarding this before. I am not the only person that uses this Boards.ie account in my household, I'm pretty sure it's against the rules to have more than one a/c per IP address (I could be wrong on that but many forums have this rule).

Cute Hoor, would you like to share the investments you've made recently? I'm sure we would like some of your wisdom.

Tensions are rising geopolitically - Russia/US being at the centre of this tension going forward.

Euroboom, in hindsight, gave good advice when talking about equities. However, you need an exit strategy for this. I like gold/silver as a medium-long term investment that I don't need to be following every day and worrying about it. If I was a full-time trader and investor then I'd probably invest in higher risk assets but I don't have the time nor the patience for this.

I think it's an even better time to own precious metals than a year ago, given the amount of uncertainty and tension in the world geopolitically.

braddun

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/cheaper-oil-putting-gold-out-of-job-as-an-inflation-hedge.html

Cute Hoor

DarkDusk wrote: »

Cute Hoor, would you like to share the investments you've made recently? I'm sure we would like some of your wisdom.

Unfortunately I have very little (if any) wisdom. I would be deeply sceptical though of any statements that says Silver (or Gold or any other asset class) will be at highly speculative levels within 5 years, or that the price of silver will rocket if Obama is re-elected, or that now (since then prices have dropped dramatically) is the perfect time to buy silver, or that the price of precious metals will rocket when QE ceases in the States. I would have little time for any statements telling me what will happen over the next 5 years, I would be struggling to even give credence to statements from anyone saying that KK will win at least 1 AI Hurling or Kerry will win at least 1 AI Football title over the next 5 years - and you don't get much more predictable than that.

As I have often said I have no idea where the prices of precious metals will go short term or over the next 5 years, now may very well be a brilliant time to invest with opportunities of making multiples of your invested money in a very short time, and good luck to anybody investing/invested.

I have no investment in precious metals, for pretty much the same reason as I don't have any in physical property (although I have an investment in a company which owns international commercial and industrial property), I don't like the fact that they are both relatively costly to buy and sell, there is no return (other than the value appreciating) on precious metals, and both are relatively difficult to offload if you want your money out quickly. The stock market on the other hand costs virtually nothing to trade, and you can react to good or bad news in seconds and have pretty much instant access to your money, and of course you can get a regular dividend (as well as sp appreciation hopefully) if you invest wisely.

My words of wisdom would be to invest in blue chip companies, with a good history and fundamentals, that produce a product or provides a service that people will continue to need/use irrespective of the developing world situation.

I will put my neck on the block and hope that these few shares might have an SP increase of 10% at some stage during 2015, if you could get 10% on your investments wouldn't you be doing grand. I'm not saying definitively of course that these will work out because really I haven't a clue what's going to happen.
RDSA (€27.70) - will pay a nice little dividend as well while you're waiting
VOW (€181) - ditto
CRH - (€19.5) - ditto
TSCO (£1.84) - not for W&O's given the misinformation the company has been giving out but could be worthwhile. Currency risk as well
GERN ($3.12) - Currency risk here as well
Edit: I'm going to throw in another one here - AMD ($2.66) - might have been a bit oversold, currency risk as well of course.

conditioned games

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Unfortunately I have very little (if any) wisdom. I would be deeply sceptical though of any statements that says Silver (or Gold or any other asset class) will be at highly speculative levels within 5 years, or that the price of silver will rocket if Obama is re-elected, or that now (since then prices have dropped dramatically) is the perfect time to buy silver, or that the price of precious metals will rocket when QE ceases in the States. I would have little time for any statements telling me what will happen over the next 5 years, I would be struggling to even give credence to statements from anyone saying that KK will win at least 1 AI Hurling or Kerry will win at least 1 AI Football title over the next 5 years - and you don't get much more predictable than that.

As I have often said I have no idea where the prices of precious metals will go short term or over the next 5 years, now may very well be a brilliant time to invest with opportunities of making multiples of your invested money in a very short time, and good luck to anybody investing/invested.

I have no investment in precious metals, for pretty much the same reason as I don't have any in physical property (although I have an investment in a company which owns international commercial and industrial property), I don't like the fact that they are both relatively costly to buy and sell, there is no return (other than the value appreciating) on precious metals, and both are relatively difficult to offload if you want your money out quickly. The stock market on the other hand costs virtually nothing to trade, and you can react to good or bad news in seconds and have pretty much instant access to your money, and of course you can get a regular dividend (as well as sp appreciation hopefully) if you invest wisely.

My words of wisdom would be to invest in blue chip companies, with a good history and fundamentals, that produce a product or provides a service that people will continue to need/use irrespective of the developing world situation.

I will put my neck on the block and hope that these few shares might have an SP increase of 10% at some stage during 2015, if you could get 10% on your investments wouldn't you be doing grand. I'm not saying definitively of course that these will work out because really I haven't a clue what's going to happen.
RDSA (€27.70) - will pay a nice little dividend as well while you're waiting
VOW (€181) - ditto
CRH - (€19.5) - ditto
TSCO (£1.84) - not for W&O's given the misinformation the company has been giving out but could be worthwhile. Currency risk as well
GERN ($3.12) - Currency risk here as well
Edit: I'm going to throw in another one here - AMD ($2.66) - might have been a bit oversold, currency risk as well of course.

Would you be sceptical if I said there will be a major price movement upwards in precious metals in the 2nd half of 2015 while by the time 2020 rolls around gold will be at 12,000 and silver will be at 1,200 dollars, and that is in today’s dollar value before the currency becomes worthless. Forecasting what will happen in the medium term is possible as future consequences are based on past and present actions.


The stock market is in a bubble and there is a disconnect between share prices and earnings by companies. Selling precious metals is easy to offload, just simply walk into a precious metals dealer and sell at the current market value.


My words of wisdom would be to stay as far away from blue chip companies as possible. These companies are way over valued and have a long way to fall when the debt bubbles collapse over the next few years. These companies are not immune to developing world situations, if stock markets lose 80% of its value then these companies will also lose 80% of their value.


I will put my neck on the block and say there will be major increase in the price of precious metals in October 2015 while at the same time panic will spread throughout the stock markets around the world resulting in massive falls.


Just a note on the above named companies. Royal Dutch Shell will continue to experience a fall in their share price for another year as OPEC allows the market determine fair value for oil. Volkswagen has lost its biggest customer Russia recently and as the world’s financial crisis hits then car manufactures is not a good investment in the medium or long term. CRH are reliant on construction and again in times of deeping depressions construction does not do well. Tesco will continue to lose market share to cheaper rivals, the quality of their food is very average and the prices charged are always above the market average. The manipulation of their profits will not be the end of bad news for that company. The only thing I know about Genron Corporation is that they are a biotechnology company selling cancer drugs and listed on the Nasdaq. Again stay away from stocks, all companies will experience a dramatic fall in their market capitalisation in the next few years starting at the end of 2015.


Basically best advice I could give people is do the opposite of what Cute Hoor says and you will not see your investments wiped out in a stock market crash. If you want to benefit from the turmoil in the world’s financial markets in the coming years then invest in precious metals.

Cute Hoor

conditioned games wrote: »

Would you be sceptical if I said by the time 2020 rolls around gold will be at 12,000 and silver will be at 1,200 dollars

Absolutely, if JC himself came down and TOLD me that I would still be sceptical, maybe you are JC, and if you are I am still sceptical.

euroboom13

For political reasons ,oil drop will have little impact, if gold price rises.

Collapse in oil price helps consolidate bankrupt oil companies, gold price rise would hinder this.

Most oil producers(nations) are rich in gold and they will be paying off debt with gold rather than cash, which, IMO, should drop gold prices.

But the future is an unknown.
Be care full.(ego and confidence fogs the brain)

conditioned games

euroboom13 wrote: »

For political reasons ,oil drop will have little impact, if gold price rises.

Collapse in oil price helps consolidate bankrupt oil companies, gold price rise would hinder this.

Most oil producers(nations) are rich in gold and they will be paying off debt with gold rather than cash, which, IMO, should drop gold prices.

But the future is an unknown.
Be care full.(ego and confidence fogs the brain)

Rich oil producing nations like Venezuela, Russia and maybe others will continue to accumulate gold even though oil prices are collapsing and they need revenues. OPEC’s willingness to allow the market to determine oil price will bring forward the market crash from 2016 to late 2015. Expect interest rates in the junk bond market to increase in the next 6 months as high risk energy companies go to the wall. This will be followed by a junk bond collapse just before the stock market as happened in 2008.

euroboom13

conditioned games wrote: »

Rich oil producing nations like Venezuela, Russia and maybe others will continue to accumulate gold even though oil prices are collapsing and they need revenues. OPEC’s willingness to allow the market to determine oil price will bring forward the market crash from 2016 to late 2015. Expect interest rates in the junk bond market to increase in the next 6 months as high risk energy companies go to the wall. This will be followed by a junk bond collapse just before the stock market as happened in 2008.

With oil income down ,gold is less affordable and cash is more valuable.

Countries will be trying to deleverage fast.Gold will be sold to pay down debt.

conditioned games

euroboom13 wrote: »

With oil income down ,gold is less affordable and cash is more valuable.

Countries will be trying to deleverage fast.Gold will be sold to pay down debt.

You sound like an investment bank trying desperately to maintain the Ponzi debt bubbles. Unlike western countries that believe in paper debt these developing countries have a better understanding of real money looking in from the outside. It is why Venezuela repatriated its gold and why Russia even last and this month continue to add to its gold reserves.

euroboom13

conditioned games wrote: »

You sound like an investment bank trying desperately to maintain the Ponzi debt bubbles. Unlike western countries that believe in paper debt these developing countries have a better understanding of real money looking in from the outside. It is why Venezuela repatriated its gold and why Russia even last and this month continue to add to its gold reserves.

Good luck with that

Value Hunter

The stock market is in a bubble and there is a disconnect between share prices and earnings by companies.



The US markets trading at around 17 times earnings, but with a growth rate in earnings of 9.5% year on year. Not undervalued by any means, but hardly bubble territory

US Economy is growing at 5% per annum in the latest stats


Just a note on the above named companies. Royal Dutch Shell will continue to experience a fall in their share price for another year as OPEC allows the market determine fair value for oil. Volkswagen has lost its biggest customer Russia recently and as the world’s financial crisis hits then car manufactures is not a good investment in the medium or long term. CRH are reliant on construction and again in times of deeping depressions construction does not do well. Tesco will continue to lose market share to cheaper rivals, the quality of their food is very average and the prices charged are always above the market average. The manipulation of their profits will not be the end of bad news for that company. The only thing I know about Genron Corporation is that they are a biotechnology company selling cancer drugs and listed on the Nasdaq. Again stay away from stocks, all companies will experience a dramatic fall in their market capitalisation in the next few years starting at the end of 2015.


The Volkswagen statement is completely and utterly inaccurate. Russia it's biggest customer? Any source for that mate? Or is it just made up?Volkswagen profits were up 56% in their most recent quarter (Oct 2014), even with the Russia situation

http://www.sltrib.com/home/1762886-155/billion-sales-euros-percent-volkswagen-profits

As for the other companies you write off, well i can only assume your info is as accurate and well researched as your comments on Volkswagen:rolleyes:

Rich oil producing nations like Venezuela, Russia and maybe others will continue to accumulate gold even though oil prices are collapsing and they need revenues.

So as there revenue collapses and they cant pay there bills, you expect them to continually spent huge amounts of money on precious metals for which they have no use? Solid theory...

Unlike western countries that believe in paper debt these developing countries have a better understanding of real money looking in from the outside. It is why Venezuela repatriated its gold and why Russia even last and this month continue to add to its gold reserves.

Oh yes, because these countries have such an excellent history of smart economic policy

Gold at $12,000 and Silver at $1200... I wonder why the finance industry doesn't know such huge gains are coming in five years, I'm sure a lot of hedge funds would hugely enjoy a 7300% percentage gain in 5 years...

But I guess it's all a conspiracy against Gold

conditioned games

The US Economy is growing at 5%? Is that real growth or is massive money printing and debt delivering that distorted figure.

The below is an RTE report saying Russia is Germany’s biggest trading partner and the biggest drop in exports was cars.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1029/655575-german-exports/

As revenues in oil producing nations continue to collapse over the next year or two years as oil price takes a hammering I expect China to continue to help these countries rather than the IMF.

Do you think building economies on debt and currency printing is smart economic policy? Have previous empires that done this and debased their currency have had a happy ending?

World’s financial system has an objective to continue this party. As soon as everyone wakes up and realises this is not sustainable any more it will mean a whole lot of change for the financial system which hasn’t happened for over 90 years and unfortunately a hell of a lot of banks and financial institutions will not make it. There is a lot at stake here.

Value Hunter

Yes that's real growth, I don't make up facts and figures to suit my viewpoint....

But you said Russia was specifically Volkswagen's biggest customer? That link is discussing German exports to Russia, how does that translate into Russia is Volkswagens biggest customer?

Can I take it that you just made that up?

Yes I believe the world economy will be just fine over the long run.

On the one hand your saying these countries are going to be spending huge amounts buying a lot of gold, now your saying China is going to have to help support these countries?

How come your the only one who's figured out that gold and silver are going up over 7000% in five years?