Summer Starts Next week

pauldry

for you met eireann knockers heres one to knock

the first half of june will be wet and sh*ite - hope you like that

WallyGUFC

mickger844posts wrote: »

Not having a go at Met Eireann but i'm just surprised at how forecasts for Thursday and the weekend have gone down hill in the last 24 to 48 hrs. On Monday after the European forecast here was the summary for the week ahead. Very different to what its looking like now.

Weather changes. If it didn't, why would they bother with multiple bulletins every day when they could just have one on the Sunday and take the rest of the week off?

Aerohead

Deep easterly a few posts back you say you are in tuam that is not galway city

Deep Easterly

Aerohead wrote: »

Deep easterly a few posts back you say you are in tuam that is not galway city

I never said I was in Galway City, but Tuam is in Galway. My point is that reports of the intensity of the rain are being exaggerated by some.

Here is a radar grab from 11pm around the time S10 made his observation (from the UK Met Office)



Rainfall rate of no more than 0.5mm-1.0mm/ph over Galway city with slightly higher rates further north into the county and into Mayo.

Latest reading from NUIG says 0.8mm of rain in last hour, 0.6mm at Claremorris and 0.8mm here in Tuam since midnight.

To wit: not lashing as claimed and not remotely heavy in any part of greater region.

mickger844posts

WallyGUFC wrote: »

Weather changes. If it didn't, why would they bother with multiple bulletins every day when they could just have one on the Sunday and take the rest of the week off?

I will say again now for the Third time i'm not knocking Met Eireann. They do a great job. I'm just commenting on how dramatic a change in forecast it was over a 24 hour period. I've been looking at forecasts many many years now and haven't seen such a big change in such a short time frame that often.

Chicken1

Quote (Deep Easterly; Blaming met eireann for getting a forecast wrong 4 of 5 days out is a bit of a cheap shot to be honest and smacks just a tad of ignorance)

I dont post here very often and the smart ass replies that you post is one of the reasons, you seem to think you know everything about the weather. It was raining heavy in Galway last night full stop, I dont care where you got your measurements from it may not have been heavy where you were or at the University. One thing I am not is ignorant

This rain which is almost countrywide and heavy was never forecast by the Met office, they have got it wrong so end of.

Green Diesel

Chicken1 wrote: »

This rain which is almost countrywide and heavy was never forecast by the Met office, they have got it wrong so end of.

It was forecast on the weather after six one yesterday.

http://www.rte.ie/player/#!v=1152036 (46mins onwards)

mike65

Mucky stuff today, if it clears it'll be pretty late on.

JanuarySnowstor

It is not about having a go at Met Eireann
What it is about is trying to produce the most accurate forecast at any given time using the most uptodate models available at this time.
I said many days ago that a change was evident and that we had peaked in our warm spell last wkd. I said this because at the time this is what the models were showing. I also said at the time that Met Eireann seemed overly positve about the outlook and the models at the time weren't showing the warm spell continuing.

So it's not about having a go, it's about forecasting accurately at any given time. Note we rarely have a go at the UK Met, coincidence I wonder ??
No it's because they are hugely accurate most of the time for Ireland and they don't even reside here.
So let's stop this 'having a go at Met Eireann' talk please because as professional people we are allowed comment on an accurate forecast or not.

Of course models chop and change and thats nobodys fault, this is all about reading the models at a given time and forecasting that.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann says a mainly cloudy day tomorrow.
My prediction is a mainly sunny one after early cloud breaks up mid morning with temps maxing out at 24-25 in the South
Let's see what happens

Discodog

The rain certainly caught me by surprise & as someone who works outdoors, I keep a close eye on forecasts. It was raining quite hard last night in Galway & it's only just fully stopped - we've had the dreaded drizzle all afternoon.

DOCARCH

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Met Eireann says a mainly cloudy day tomorrow.

This is what ME have forecast for tomorrow:

Tomorrow Friday will be another mostly cloudy day. Apart from scattered patches of drizzle or light rain mainly across northern counties, the day will be dry. A few sunny breaks may develop across the midlands and south where it will be warm with temperatures ranging 20 to 23 degrees. Cooler in the cloudier north and west where low cloud and mist will persist, and temperatures typically 17 to 20 degrees. Light variable winds.

@ JS - another case of selective reading/quoting on your part! :rolleyes:

mike65

So he is correct then!

Chicken1

Discodog wrote: »

The rain certainly caught me by surprise & as someone who works outdoors, I keep a close eye on forecasts. It was raining quite hard last night in Galway & it's only just fully stopped - we've had the dreaded drizzle all afternoon.

Dont let Deep Easterly see that about raining heavy in Galway last night, he was cutting in his replies to other posters who said it was raining heavy in Galway according to him it was just a few drops.

cherryghost

Chicken1 wrote: »

Dont let Deep Easterly see that about raining heavy in Galway last night, he was cutting in his replies to other posters who said it was raining heavy in Galway according to him it was just a few drops.

People's perception and dramatization of precipitation on boards is hilarious.

DOCARCH

mike65 wrote: »

So he is correct then!

No. Being selective to prove some sort of point.

pistolpetes11

RITE FOLKS LESS OF THE SNIPPING , KEEP IT CIVIL,

ANYTHING I DEEM TO BE MET EIREANN BASHING WILL BE GIVEN A WARNING/INFRACTION,

THIS IS THE ONE AND ONLY WARNING.

As has been stated before MET Erieann has a duty of care and cant go making forecasts willy nilly like we can in here, they were going on the guidance which was available to them at the time of report, models chop and change as will there reports.

Deep Easterly

DOCARCH wrote: »

No. Being selective to prove some sort of point.

Yep, still trying to figure out what the point actually is, since the original purpose of this thread has long since passed.

14.2mm of near continuous but low intensity rain here in Co Galway today.

sunbabe08

16oC in youghal right now

JanuarySnowstor

Expect flooding for the South over the wkd
Heavy rain most of Sat in Southern regions followed by thunderstorms on Sunday

sunbabe08

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect flooding for the South over the wkd
Heavy rain most of Sat in Southern regions followed by thunderstorms on Sunday

i saw that.

Oscar Bravo

Met update 2309 for weekend -Friday night will be mainly dry. It will be cooler in the North with temperatures dipping to 6 or 7 degrees but minimum temperatures will be closer to 12 degrees in the Southwest.
Saturday will start mainly dry with some bright or sunny spells in the North. Rain will slowly spread into Southern and Western parts during the course of the day but elsewhere it should hold dry. Highest temperatures will range 17 to 21 degrees.
The details for the rest of bank holiday weekend regarding rainfall look uncertain.
At the moment it looks like during Saturday night the rain will spread further north to most remaining areas. Then Sunday and bank holiday Monday look like being noticeably cooler days than recently with outbreaks of rain affecting many places.
Tuesday and Wednesday next also look unsettled with rain at times but temperatures recovering a little.

Squeaksoutloud

Interesting to see how the forecast changed so dramatically midweek. Was looking forward to a full day of outdoor actvivities in the south east this Saturday but might need to get out earlier to avoid the rain.

Looking at the Met Eireann 5 day forecast model they have the rain arriving in the south east not until the evening tomorrow:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

but the UK Met/BBC have it arriving around lunchtime:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map&map=Rainfall

with some serious rain settled in by afternoon.

Which should I trust or is this because they are based on different models?

JanuarySnowstor

Rain will hit Cork by midday and the Wexford around 4pm is my best guideline so I would agree with the beeb's interpretation

Thunder is very hard to predict but I see it happening on Sunday in Southern areas esp near the coast as we remain in a warmer sector.
Indeed places like Cork could have a bright and sunny Sunday morning before a few storms and perhaps hail kick off. Note, nobody inc the UK Met are forecasting this but the models imo are so we see what happens

MiNdGaM3

Warm, mostly cloudy and muggy in Cork, 20.9C and 71% RH.
Still, quite nice!

Pangea

Speaking of summer weather, do we have high pressure over us still?
Seen this on the terrestrial forum might interest a few on here.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78974790&postcount=8

hawkwing

Issued at 01 June 2012 - 10:55
Rainfall warning.
Between 25 and 65 mm of rain possible, (heaviest totals likely south midlands). The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime. Rain slowly clearing southwards later Sunday.

Valid 1200 Sat 2/6/12 to 2100 Sun 3/6/12.

Elmer Blooker

This is the battle ground scenario that we all (well most of us) long for in winter but never get - a stalling front with the cold air to the north winning.
The only problem is it's June :mad: T'would make you sick!!

sunbabe08

oh gee great. youghal no fun when it's raining.

DOCARCH

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Met Eireann says a mainly cloudy day tomorrow.
My prediction is a mainly sunny one after early cloud breaks up mid morning with temps maxing out at 24-25 in the South
Let's see what happens

FWIW, a selection of max temps recorded yesterday from the South:

Shannon AP 20.9c
Cork AP 19.2c
Valentia 18.3c
Sherkin Island 18.0c
Roches Point 17.6c