June 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Yes but with that 180, that's a guaranteed 15 points back of the net.

With the mercy rule, here's how it works in excruciating detail ... if everyone is outside the scoring range, closest gets 13/15 (similar in other categories like 18/20 or 23/25) and then I go down the list skipping a few points near the top but not with precip, there I go 12, 11, etc ... but if someone is in scoring range I give them 14 or 15 rather than 13 to reward them further for an excellent guess. The mercy rule still applies, whenever any score falls below the defined "minimum progression." (even one time five or six good forecasts scored then I had to bring in the mercy rule for the lower points)

Will update from today's Ag Report later on although I will try to re-update on Saturday expecting a big rainfall addition today.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for the week 8-14 June ...

IMT was 12.1 C for the week, leaving the monthly at 12.5 rounded. Today should see the mid-month at 12.5 also.

Rainfall for the week was quite variable for the eleven stations used, with the average 221% and some stations above 400%, this leaves the monthly value at 281% of normal, and that guarantees a minimum of 150% at month's end counting today's expected totals and if the rest of the month then went totally dry, so I think we are heading towards at least 200%.

Sunshine was 87% of normal at five stations, if Valentia shows up end of month it would likely be around that figure also, so combined with the first week this rather dull month now sits at about 64%. That might be enough to graduate to July. I would expect this figure to swell to almost normal at some point.

:pac:

(never too sure what the pacman symbol says to a reader, to me it says ain't life grand) :eek:

M.T. Cranium

A new minimum has been reported, 3.8 C at Dublin (A) on Monday. Not sure if that was a morning or midnight reading.

waterways

Ermm, ... does Ballyhaise (A) not count with 3.7 on the 10/06/?

M.T. Cranium

It may count, or both may be eclipsed. Sorry, didn't notice or recall that one. Was it in the thread? (goes back to look, nope).

pauldry

I think waterways is right

its not on the thread MT but I think it happened and no one commented

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for week three of Rainfest 2012 otherwise known as June ...

IMT for week estimated 12.2 (Oak Park is missing one daily max) ... that leaves the monthly around 12.4 C.

Rainfall about 205% of normal for the eleven stations which makes the monthly total 256% of normal, which guarantees 180% for the month even without further rainfall, so it still appears headed for above 200%.

Sunshine was 76% of normal (likely with or without Valentia near that mark) so the monthly estimate is now 68% of normal. This could edge up into the low 70s with any kind of luck.

Joe Public

It looks like waterways took the deepest dive into the puddle this month ( 180% ) and not too bad on the sunshine either.

waterways

Even a blind hen sometimes finds a grain of corn. And my grain this month is the precipitation.

Sponge Bob

waterways wrote: »

Even a blind hen sometimes finds a grain of corn. And my grain this month is the precipitation.

You will do well on your miserable IMT prediction too. Looks like the mercy rule will be applied to the monthly high temp value where the lowest prediction was 23c and we haven't bust 22c that I know of.

Sponge Bob

Casement 22.2c today, that might be the top temp this month??

M.T. Cranium

Oak Park 22.8 C on Tuesday.

Another 100% of rain coming, mercy rule squared.

Sponge Bob

22.9c Yesterday in Dublin Airport. (+20mm of rain which is more than fell in the second half of May.)
. As Evelyn declared it the wettest June ON RECORD can we have a double mercy rule on the Precip this month

M.T. Cranium

I think that Thursdays alone have seen above normal June rainfall, then there's the rest of the week. :eek:

lostinashford

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think that Thursdays alone have seen above normal June rainfall, then there's the rest of the week. :eek:

We've renamed Thursday in my house, now known as 'Torrential Thursday':D

pauldry

Sligo has had 94mm of its 134mm for June on Thursday

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks of ritual sacrifice to the rain gods ...

IMT edged up thanks to a warmer week at 15.0 C, making the monthly value 13.1 C. It's likely to end up about there now.

Rainfall once again much above normal at 231% of normal for the eleven stations which makes the monthly total 250% of normal. These last two days seem capable of holding their own in this already settled realm of extreme mercy rule scoring (on raw scores alone, even our highest guess would now be worth zero).

Sunshine was 80% of normal (with Valentia this might be a bit lower). I am estimating the monthly value at around 72% of normal and that could fall off again with these two rather cloudy days and any correction from Valentia being included. Let's say 70% is the general expectation for the month. This may require a bit of mercy scoring, perhaps not.

I doubt that the monthly extreme temperatures will shift now, so I may produce a provisional scoring table later today for fun, it is bound to be within 3-4 points of the final values.

July contest thread is open for business.

M.T. Cranium

The scoring may be a couple of days late. I never did figure out if you have a bank holiday there this weekend, but we do (we don't call it that, but our national holiday is July 1st which being a Sunday means that Monday is the day off work, so we may be heading out if the rain goes away, and in any case the Monthly Summary won't be ready until Monday 2nd late, even if this isn't a bank holiday.) I was going to post some provisional scores but looking down the list, and doing some estimates, everyone scored fairly low including Con Sensus, even with the mercy rule, the people getting points for max temp generally won't be the same people getting them for rainfall ... so with a few exceptions, scores will be in the 20s and 30s generally. Without going into a lot of detail, K_1 and Sponge Bob did better than 50 (I think) and there were a few others up there. When I actually get around to this, we may find that a few more break the 50 barrier.

DeepE if you read this, please post the Claremorris monthly mean at your earliest convenience, I can usually work out the other four but these days, as I don't know what they are using as their "normal" for Claremorris (number, not period) the posted anomaly doesn't really help me and they don't update the monthly data in real time.

These are what I believe the numbers should be ...

13.1 .... 22.9 .... 3.7 .... 8 million .... 70 .... 16.9,16.0,1-3

That 8 million is actually 250, same difference for scoring though.

M.T. Cranium

There were a couple of surprises for us in the Monthly Summary. They announced the maximum as 23.8 at Phoenix Park on the 27th, and the minimum as 3.2 at Mount Dillon on the 10th.

Otherwise, that leaves us with the following stats:

IMT 13.1 C

max 23.8

min 3.2

prc 234% of normal

sun 71% of normal (and Valentia is still recording)

bonus as mentioned earlier in thread, 16.0, 16.9, 1-3

Will now get on to scoring these results and hopefully have some results soon as adding up the numbers won't take that long.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for June contest
__________________________________

Forecaster .............. IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. Bonus ..... TOTALS
______________________________________________________________

Actual values ....... 13.1 ... 23.8 .... 3.2 ... 234 ... 071 ... 16.9,16.0

Tae laidir ................. 20 .... 15 .... 18 .... 10* .. 06* .. 06 ..... 75
Sponge Bob ............. 20 .... 19 .... 16 .... 00 .... 05* .. 04 ..... 64
K_1 ........................ 16 .... 12 .... 18 .... 00 .... 03 .... 10 ..... 59
Lumi ....................... 11 .... 03* .. 19 .... 07* .. 08* .. 09 ..... 57
MiNdGaM3 ............... 16 .... 14 .... 09 .... 05* .. 04 .... 08 ..... 56
pauldry ................... 16 .... 19 .... 00 .... 07* .. 04 .... 10 ..... 56
Darwin .................... 16 .... 09* .. 15 .... 00 .... 08* .. 05 ..... 53
DOCARCH ................ 22 .... 01* .. 12 .... 04* .. 08* .. 05 ..... 52
lostinashford* .......... 10 .... 00 .... 16 .... 11* .. 07* .. 08 ..... 52
traecy1 .................. 13 .... 07* .. 14 .... 05* .. 04 .... 09 ..... 52
Hammer Archer ........ 12 .... 17 .... 14 .... 00 .... 01 .... 07 ..... 51
delw ...................... 24 .... 05* .. 08 .... 00 .... 02 .... 10 ..... 49
Jerry Seinfeld .......... 14 .... 02* .. 19 .... 02* .. 04 .... 08 ..... 49
waterways .............. 18 .... 00 .... 00 .... 14* .. 09* .. 08 ..... 49
snowstreams ........... 18 .... 00 .... 19 .... 00 .... 03 .... 08 ..... 48
redsunset ............... 06 .... 00 .... 17 .... 13* .. 02 .... 10 ..... 48
H2UMrsRobinson ....... 14 .... 00 .... 18 .... 03* .. 04 .... 08 ..... 47
M.T. Cranium ........... 06 .... 00 .... 18 .... 09* .. 04 .... 09 ..... 46
mickger844posts ...... 09 .... 00 .... 16 .... 09* .. 04 .... 08 ..... 46
Danno* .................. 13 .... 09* .. 04 .... 13* .. 04 .... 02 ..... 45
Deep Easterly .......... 09 .... 00 .... 16 .... 09* .. 00 .... 10 ..... 44
rameire ................... 17 .... 00 .... 12 .... 03* .. 09* .. 02 ..... 43
nilhg ...................... 15 .... 06* .. 08 .... 05* .. 03 .... 05 ..... 42
John mac ................ 16 .... 00 .... 12 .... 05* .. 01 .... 08 ..... 42

Con Sensus ............. 13 .... 00 .... 18 .... 00 .... 03 .... 07 ..... 41

jambofc .................. 10 .... 00 .... 10 .... 07* .. 04 .... 09 ..... 40
Rickylovesuall .......... 11 .... 01* .. 18 .... 00 .... 02 .... 04 ..... 36
cherryghost ............ 12 .... 00 .... 19 .... 00 .... 02 .... 02 ..... 35
Harps ..................... 11 .... 00 .... 12 .... 02* .. 00 .... 10 ..... 35
SeaFields ................ 14 .... 00 .... 13 .... 00 .... 00 .... 08 ..... 35
kindredspirit ............. 07 .... 00 .... 18 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 ..... 35
jd .......................... 08 .... 00 .... 19 .... 00 .... 03 .... 05 ..... 35
okla ....................... 15 .... 04* .. 00 .... 00 .... 07* .. 07 ..... 33
Iancar29 ................. 13 .... 00 .... 12 .... 00 .... 02 .... 05 ..... 32
NIALL D .................. 07 .... 00 .... 14 .... 01* .. 02 .... 08 ..... 32
talkabout ................ 10 .... 00 .... 14 .... 00 .... 02 .... 06 ..... 32
Wild Bill ................... 11 .... 00 .... 15 .... 00 .... 02 .... 04 ..... 32
Joe Public ................ 07 .... 00 .... 13 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 ..... 30
dasa29 .................... 24 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 ..... 29
200motels ................ 17 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 06* .. 03 ..... 26
dacogawa ................ 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 00 .... 02 .... 10 ..... 19
homolumo ................ 03 .... 00 .... 09 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 ..... 19
Strasser .................. 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 00 .... 01 .... 02 ..... 16

___________________________________________________________

* late entries, subject to penalty if score >60, no penalties applied.

* for scores, minimum progression (mercy) rule applied ... this was needed for some of the max (the closer guesses were okay, then rule applied to some further out), the rainfall (was entirely needed here) and sunshine (the closer scores needed a boost, then the normal rules kicked in at 04).

My earlier estimates of scoring were changed by the unexpected values for the MAX and MIN, which seemed to fall right into the lap of Tae Laidir, this month's champion. As expected, K_1 and Sponge Bob did well as did Lumi, Mindgame and Pauldry. I will be back with the annual contest scoring update later today.

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual scoring table
______________________

Rank .. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J ... Total ... Avg (rank)... Contest (rank)

1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64 ... 314 ... 52.3 ... 1 .... 268 (3)
2 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75 ... 311 ... 51.9 ... 2 .... 280 (1)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49 ... 305 ... 50.8 ... 3 .... 259 (4)
4 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42 ... 303 ... 50.5 ... 4 .... 270 (2)
5 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43 ... 302 ... 50.3 ... 5 .... 259 (4)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47 ... 295 ... 49.2 ... 6 .... 257 (7)
7 .. pauldry ............61..48..45..31..49..56 ... 290 ... 48.3 ... 7 .... 259 (4)
8 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42 ... 282 ... 47.0 ... 8 .... 256 (8)
9 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57 ... 279 ... 46.5 ... 9 .... 251 (9)
10 .waterways ........58..29..53..33..47..49 ... 269 ... 44.8 .. 10 .... 240 (11)
11 .M.T. Cranium .....34..41..21..55..65..46 ... 262 ... 43.7 .. 11 .... 241 (10)
12 .jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35 ... 257 ... 42.8 .. 12 .... 229 (14)
13 .kindredspirit .......60..48..39..22..50..35 ... 254 ... 42.3 .. 13 .... 232 (13)

14 .Con Sensus .......58..28..31..46..48..41 ... 252 ... 42.0 .. 14 .... 224 (17)

14 .traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52 ... 251 ... 41.8 .. 14 .... 218 (20)
15 .K_1 ..................40..25..71..22..33..59 ... 250 ... 41.7 .. 15 .... 228 (15)
16 .MiNdGaM3 .........33..11..31..45..70..56 ... 246 ... 41.0 .. 17 .... 235 (12)
17 .delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49 ... 242 ... 40.3 .. 19 .... 227 (16)
18. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40 ... 241 ... 40.2 .. 20 .... 219 (19)
18 .homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19 ... 241 ... 40.2 .. 20 .... 222 (17)
20 .200motels .........56..69..18..31..40..26 ... 240 ... 40.0 .. 22 .... 222 (17)
20 .Hammer Archer ..52..41..22..35..39..51 ... 240 ... 40.0 .. 22 .... 218 (20)
22 .mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46 ... 239 ... 39.8 .. 24 .... 213 (23)
23 .okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33 ... 237 ... 39.5 .. 25 .... 214 (22)
24 .Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36 ... 224 ... 37.3 .. 27 .... 211 (25)
25 .Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30 ... 220 ... 36.7 .. 29 .... 212 (24)
25 .SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35 ... 220 ... 36.7 .. 29 .... 205 (27)
27 .Wild Bill ............48..29..32..27..51..32 ... 219 ... 36.5 .. 31 .... 192
28 .DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52 ... 212 ... 35.3 .. 32 .... 192
29 .Harps ..............51..25..18..35..47..35 ... 211 ... 35.2 .. 34 .... 193
29 .snowstreams ....37..10..28..37..51..48 ... 211 ... 35.2 .. 34 .... 201 (28)
31 .cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35 ... 209 ... 34.8 .. 36 .... 198 (29)
32 .Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45 ... 207 ... 41.2 .. 16 .... 207 (26)
32 .Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32 ... 207 ... 34.5 .. 37 .... 188
34 .redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48 ... 206 ... 34.3 .. 38 .... 195 (30)
35 .dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29 ... 196 ... 32.7 .. 40 .... 180
35 .dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19 ... 196 ... 32.7 .. 40 .... 182
37 .NIALL D ...........29..20..28..44..42..32 ... 195 ... 32.5 .. 42 .... 175
38 .talkabout .........42..26..20..05..58..32 ... 183 ... 30.5 .. 44 .... 178
39 .lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52 ... 163 ... 40.8 .. 18 .... 193@
40 .Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16 ... 155 ... 31.0 .. 43 .... 155
41 .Deep Easterly ....--..38..22..45..--..44 ... 149 ... 37.3 .. 27 .... 179@
42 .Steopo .............53..20..44..24..--..-- ... 141 ... 35.3 .. 32 .... 171@
43 .Rebelbrowser .....--..14..36..38..44..-- ... 132 ... 33.0 .. 39 .... 162@
44 .Gonzo ...............--..--..55..37..26..-- ... 118 ... 39.3 .. 25
__________________________________________

I have reinstated Iancar29's April score and will review at end of year to see if it affects top placings.

The scores are still ranked by totals, but the rank for average gives you a better idea of where you stand in the annual contest especially if you have missed only one month, you still have a "discard" score ... those who have missed two months will have to keep up their pace without that luxury.

For the first time this year, I have added the contest score "predictor" which is your best five out of six, on the way to best ten out of twelve. Anyone who has missed two already is given 30 extra points and this symbol @ so to whatever extent you can keep scores above 30 you would be better placed than shown (because you'll be needing to count all six of your remaining scores, the other people have at least one to discard). I have ranked the "predictor" down to 30th.

Congrats to Sponge Bob and Tae Laidir who now lead the total score segment, and to all who have made it through this treacherous first half of the year 2012.

Sponge Bob

Ohhhhh Yeah! Pores open and soakin it all in.

Speak Now

Wow my range of scores is so narrow

.. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49 ... 305 ... 50.8 ... 3 .... 259 (4)

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

DeepE if you read this, please post the Claremorris monthly mean at your earliest convenience

Sorry MT, only seen this now. Not that it is any use at this stage but the Claremorris mean was 12.5c. IMT spot on at 13.1c.

M.T. Cranium

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Wow my range of scores is so narrow

.. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49 ... 305 ... 50.8 ... 3 .... 259 (4)

Not a problem as long as they are also high.