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Red C poll - Yes 49% (-4), No 35% (+4), DK 16% (nc)
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26-05-2012 5:43pm#1
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Theres three groups of voters out there right now:
People voting No for the wrong reasons.
People voting No for the right reasons.
People voting Yes for the wrong reasons.
You forgot people voting Yes because they've read the treaty, read ancillary documentation, and based their opinion on the reality of the document, as opposed to the majority of the No side who appear to be voting on half truths and misconceptions.A No vote is absolutely in the interests of Ireland, and a Yes vote would be absolutely against Ireland's interests.
Can you elaborate on how voting No would be in Ireland's interests please?The Yes voters are voting entirely the wrong way for reasons which are just as incoherent and ridiculous as anything I've seen on a No vote poster. On my way home today I walked past one claiming we should "Vote Yes for a working Ireland"....a completely vacuous statement unless its just an attempt to say "Vote Yes for Jobs" without saying so. Other examples being "Vote Yes for Stability".
In fairness, IBEC and the American Chamber of Commerce in Ireland have both supported the contention that a Yes would be good for Ireland, and that a No would lead to a good deal of uncertaintly which could hurt investment. Considering the American Chamber represent the people doing the actual investment, I'd like to think their opinion on the potential impact on that investment is slightly more valid that yours. Unless you're Bill Gates in disguise?I'm also hearing that we should vote Yes because Ireland shouldn't be taking risks - this is being offered as a reason to take a huge risk by signing into national law a set of economically incoherent fiscal handcuffs which even the French and Germans are rowing back from. Oh yeah, no risks at all being run there.
Neither the French nor the Germans are rowing back on the fiscal treaty. I don't know where you have gotten that impression, because it's certainly not true.
Also, since when has fiscal responsibility been "economically incoherent"? Do you regularly spend more than you earn? Do you make a virtue of it? If so, I'm surprised your computed hasn't been repossessed. It baffles me how someone can argue that having a limit on deficit spending is somehow irresponsible.Nobody wants this Treaty - absolutely nobody. The only coherent logic being applied for a Yes vote is "Yeah, its a crappy Treaty - but lets vote Yes and hope the Germans feel grateful for some undefined reason. Really, really hope. Hope harder!!!"
Nobody except me...and er, the approx 60% of people who intend voting Yes.
That Yes vote is based on the only two compelling arguments the Yes campaign has managed to articulate:
1 - We'll be kicked out of the Euro if ye bog brains vote against this!
Hmmm haven't seen that argument made by any serious commentator myself. Wouldn't have just plucked it out of thin air would you?2 - If we Vote Yes, the Germans have promised they'll bail us out. Well, actually no they haven't. They've actually said they'll never bail us out. But we're hoping they're kidding.
For someone who complains about alleged mischaracterisation on the Yes side, you engage in a huge amount of it yourself. practically every claim you have made here has been in some way fallacious. Nobody has stated that the Germans will bail us out if we vote yes. What has been argued by the Yes side, and confirmed by the IMf and the Independent Referendum Commission is that ireland will not have access to the ESM if we vote No. And why should we? If I offered you a loan on the reasonable basis that you stop spending more than you earn and you told me to go fup myself, I'm not entirely sure that I'd be so willing to stump up the cash you need.
I work with young kids a lot and I've grown accustomed to the petty solipsism that can sometimes characterise their interaction with others. The No side howver, in their constant demand for entitlements without any responsibility takes this kind of attitude to an astounding new level. The whole mantra of SF in particular is that yes, we want Europe's money, but we'll be damned if we're going to accept even reasonable terms for this money. And if Europe doesn't give us that money, we'll do whatever we can to f*ck things up for the rest of the continent. That is basically what the No campaign comes down to. It's embarassing and shameful. Fumbling in the greasy till indeed...So people are either terrorised by the *supposed* consequences of a No vote ("No future support" - Lie, "No foreign investment" - Lie, "Harder austerity" - Lie)
I'm sorry, but you are spectacularly ignorant on both the Yes arguments, the provisions of the Treaty, and the potential consequences. As mentioned, the American Chamber has warned of negative consequences on investment in the event of a No vote; the Independent Referendum Commission has confirmed that Ireland will be locked out of the ESM in the event of a no vote; and the only people peddling lies about austerity are the No side, who promise that a No will magically disappear the annual €13 billion current deficit. The Yes side has consistently stated that austerity is unavoidable; the No side claims it can be done away with- and you claim that the former are liars?? Come off it...or they're being encouraged to believe that a Yes vote will somehow alleviate the austerity Ireland has due to endure to the Green Jerseys brigade stupidity over the banks, NAMA, the 2010 bailout etc.
Again, you haven't a clue. Ireland had a deficit last year of €13 billion...and very little of it was down to the banks!! That's a simple statement of fact, and yet people like you with your heads buried ostrich-like in the sand seem incapable of its comprehension. If we reneged on all our bank debts in the morn, we'd still have an almost identical deficit. That's the truth of it, no matter how inconvenient you might find it.Nobody is actually able to make an argument that says: This treaty is a great treaty that's really good for Ireland. Because nobody wants the treaty. Not even the Germans by the last headcount.
I think these headcounts exist only in your head...0 -
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Wishful thinking.
Default on the bank debt, exist from the Euro, nobody would lend to us, have to raise income tax overnight and cut social welfare and public service pay by 25%, leading to a severe cut in domestic consumption, foreign investors would lose faith in our ability to remain at the core of Europe and would divest from Ireland, reducing our productive employment further, international financial investors would shy away from our new Euro forcing us to raise interest rates to crippling levels that would mean no available business credits plus widescale mortgage default. Domestic consumption would fall by 25% as imports rose in price, our property market might stabilise but with prices in punts and debts in euros so what? Forced selling?
I could go on but I am too depressed by that vision.
Enough scaremongering
No need to raise income tax, no need to borrow (although it still could be done via bilateral loans), increase in revenue (through increase in corporate profits, VAT, income tax on newly employed, etc) and reduction in expenditure (reduction in debt service, social welfare, etc), TNCs would be happy to see reduction in costs and would flock here. Reduction in unemployment would increase confidence and consumption. Number of households in negative equity would decrease.0 -
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From the referendum money and previous contracts
FG+FF+Labour jointly (what a shock :eek:) supporting Yes side indicates that they all have vested interests in this project. Smells fishy.
Seriously, WTF? Of course they have a vested interest in the project...it's necessary to keep Ireland from running out of money if we need another bailout. We all have a vested interest in the project!0 -
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