Sunday Independent Treaty and Party polls

Ozymandius2011

In today's Sunday Independent.

Treaty (excluding DKs):
Yes 42% (+5)
No 28% (+4)
DK 27% (-8)

"Absolutely Certain" to vote yes: 58% of yes voters
"Fairly Certain" to vote yes: 28% of yes voters
Have doubts - 12% of yes voters
"Absolutely certain" to vote no: 64% of no voters
"Fairly certain" to vote no: 22% of no voters
Have doubts: 9% of no voters

Will get funding if vote no: Yes 54%, No 27%, DK 18%
will get second referendum if we vote no: Yes 58%, No 20%, DK 12%
Will need second bailout: Yes 67%, No 19%, DK 14%
Referendum should have been delayed: Yes 54%

Party support:
FG 36%
SF 20%
FF 17%
Lab 12%
Ind 13%
ULA 1%
Green 1%

---
My conclusions:

- SF are profiting from their perceived role as leader of the "No" campaign.
- Labour is losing its Eurosceptic, working class vote to SF.
- FG is holding steady, bolstered among pro-EU voters by its perceived role as "leaders" of the yes campaign.
- The govt has failed to convince voters that there won't be a second referendum/second bailout.
- The public believe a second bailout is likely.
- No voters are more committed to their choice than Yes voters.

johnnyskeleton

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

In today's Sunday Independent.

Treaty (excluding DKs):
Yes 42% (+5)
No 28% (+4)
DK 27% (-8)

"Absolutely Certain" to vote yes: 58% of yes voters
"Fairly Certain" to vote yes: 28% of yes voters
Have doubts - 12% of yes voters
"Absolutely certain" to vote no: 64% of no voters
"Fairly certain" to vote no: 22% of no voters
Have doubts: 9% of no voters

Will get funding if vote no: Yes 54%, No 27%, DK 18%
will get second referendum if we vote no: Yes 58%, No 20%, DK 12%
Will need second bailout: Yes 67%, No 19%, DK 14%
Referendum should have been delayed: Yes 54%

Party support:
FG 36%
SF 20%
FF 17%
Lab 12%
Ind 13%
ULA 1%
Green 1%

---
My conclusions:

- SF are profiting from their perceived role as leader of the "No" campaign.
- Labour is losing its Eurosceptic, working class vote to SF.
- FG is holding steady, bolstered among pro-EU voters by its perceived role as "leaders" of the yes campaign.
- The govt has failed to convince voters that there won't be a second referendum/second bailout.
- The public believe a second bailout is likely.
- No voters are more committed to their choice than Yes voters.

Interesting, but did labour ever have a working class eurosceptic constituency? I wouldve thought they would all vote SF/Ind or even FF. I've always seen Labour as a middle class left of centre party tbh.

My conclusion is that people vote based on very short timespans, which is worrying. But Labour's consistent losses in polls must be a serious concern for them. They are looking less and less like an almost equal partner in government and more like a tacked on party.

Ozymandius2011

Well they did have when they opposed EU entry in 1972 johnnyskeleton.

johnnyskeleton

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Well they did have when they opposed EU entry in 1972 johnnyskeleton.

Fair point, although I think we can agree that a lot has changed since then.

Ozymandius2011

More findings:

- 61% of Labour voters think Treaty should have been postponed.
- 51% of FG and 55% of Labour voters believe there will be a second referendum if we vote no, as do 54% of FF voters.

Why people are DKs:
- Lack of clarity on consequences of "yes" or "no" - 31%
- Don't understand issues - 22%

--
58% believe (76% of no voters) if we vote no we will still get a second bailout. 54% of these believe it will come from the EU.
---
Reasons for voting no:
- Government 'not doing right thing' - 29%
- Fear of more austerity - 17%
- Protest vote - 29%
A similar number say it's because they are being 'forced into it by government'.

---
Reasons for voting yes:
- Best thing for Ireland - 50%
- We should balance books - 10%
- Fear of consequences of voting no - 26%
----
Levels of understanding of Treaty:

-35% of votersare only "vaguely aware" at best of the issues
- 21% of "committed" yes voters are only "vaguely aware" at best .
- 26% of "committed" no voters are only "vaguely aware" or have no understanding of issues.

Godge

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

In today's Sunday Independent.

Treaty (excluding DKs):
Yes 42% (+5)
No 28% (+4)
DK 27% (-8)

"Absolutely Certain" to vote yes: 58% of yes voters
"Fairly Certain" to vote yes: 28% of yes voters
Have doubts - 12% of yes voters
"Absolutely certain" to vote no: 64% of no voters
"Fairly certain" to vote no: 22% of no voters
Have doubts: 9% of no voters

Will get funding if vote no: Yes 54%, No 27%, DK 18%
will get second referendum if we vote no: Yes 58%, No 20%, DK 12%
Will need second bailout: Yes 67%, No 19%, DK 14%
Referendum should have been delayed: Yes 54%

Party support:
FG 36%
SF 20%
FF 17%
Lab 12%
Ind 13%
ULA 1%
Green 1%

---
My conclusions:

- SF are profiting from their perceived role as leader of the "No" campaign.
- Labour is losing its Eurosceptic, working class vote to SF.
- FG is holding steady, bolstered among pro-EU voters by its perceived role as "leaders" of the yes campaign.
- The govt has failed to convince voters that there won't be a second referendum/second bailout.
- The public believe a second bailout is likely.
- No voters are more committed to their choice than Yes voters.

Thank you for your opinions on the opinion poll.

You seem to have missed the biggest conclusion though - the referendum will be passed barring a major cock-up before Thursday. Agree?

Ozymandius2011

Godge wrote: »

Thank you for your opinions on the opinion poll.

You seem to have missed the biggest conclusion though - the referendum will be passed barring a major cock-up before Thursday. Agree?

Respectfully no. I think the DKs are closet no voters. If they were persuaded by the urgency of passing ther Treaty they would already be on the yes side. In Nice I the yes side in the last poll was ahead 45-28, which is the same as one of the polls this weekend. I'm also banking on complacency by Treaty supporters keeping the turnout on their side down.

meglome

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Respectfully no. I think the DKs are closet no voters. If they were persuaded by the urgency of passing ther Treaty they would already be on the yes side. In Nice I the yes side in the last poll was ahead 45-28, which is the same as one of the polls this weekend. I'm also banking on complacency by Treaty supporters keeping the turnout on their side down.

Well given the new lows on some the no posters/banners I won't be shocked that people will be scared into voting no. All the while listening to the no camp complaining the government is scaremongering.

Godge

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Respectfully no. I think the DKs are closet no voters. If they were persuaded by the urgency of passing ther Treaty they would already be on the yes side. In Nice I the yes side in the last poll was ahead 45-28, which is the same as one of the polls this weekend. I'm also banking on complacency by Treaty supporters keeping the turnout on their side down.

In 3 out of the 4 polls the don't knows are splitting in favour of the yes side. So how you can respectfully conclude that the don't knows are closet no voters is beyond me? It can only lead me to respectfully conclude that you just ignore the evidence, put your hands over your ears and sing "la, la, la"?

Ozymandius2011

Godge wrote: »

In 3 out of the 4 polls the don't knows are splitting in favour of the yes side. So how you can respectfully conclude that the don't knows are closet no voters is beyond me? It can only lead me to respectfully conclude that you just ignore the evidence, put your hands over your ears and sing "la, la, la"?

The Red C poll says otherwise. There all the DKs that had switched went to the "no's", and the support for the yes side among 35-54 yr olds fell from 61% to 51%.

seamus

The most reasonable way to split the "don't knows" is to assume that they will have a split along similar lines to the rest of the population.

However looking at a very high level, since "yes" voters are more likely to be doubtful, it stands to reason that a higher proportion of the doubtful "don't know"-ers will fall on the "Yes" side.

I don't think the Government can really take it for granted. Traditionally the "No" side would be more militant anyway, so polls showing positive support for the treaty are more likely to hurt the yes vote - "Yes" voters may not bother going to the polls thinking that their vote is not required, and the more militant "no" voters may mobilise in greater numbers in response to the fear of losing the vote.

Godge

Godge wrote: »

In 3 out of the 4 polls the don't knows are splitting in favour of the yes side. So how you can respectfully conclude that the don't knows are closet no voters is beyond me? It can only lead me to respectfully conclude that you just ignore the evidence, put your hands over your ears and sing "la, la, la"?

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

The Red C poll says otherwise. There all the DKs that had switched went to the "no's", and the support for the yes side among 35-54 yr olds fell from 61% to 51%.

Ah come on, you must be able to do better than that. I say 3 out of 4 polls show a trend and you quote back the 1 out of 4. So I guess that means I am right?

Ozymandius2011

Godge wrote: »

Ah come on, you must be able to do better than that. I say 3 out of 4 polls show a trend and you quote back the 1 out of 4. So I guess that means I am right?

To be fair, Red C has run the most polls on the Treaty since the referendum was called and that makes a trend more discernible in my humble opinion.

Godge

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

To be fair, Red C has run the most polls on the Treaty since the referendum was called and that makes a trend more discernible in my humble opinion.

I suppose, in the circumstances, as I haven't checked the number, I will have to give you that one. Quite a slender straw to cling to, though.

Ozymandius2011

Godge wrote: »

I suppose, in the circumstances, as I haven't checked the number, I will have to give you that one. Quite a slender straw to cling to, though.

As far as I am aware, before the latest MRBI poll, the most recent on the Treaty was in February. There have been at least 4 from Red C according to The Week in Politics last night.

Scofflaw

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

The Red C poll says otherwise. There all the DKs that had switched went to the "no's", and the support for the yes side among 35-54 yr olds fell from 61% to 51%.

I think it's probably important that the polling was done before the announcement that there wouldn't be a change to the Treaty.

I'm not, I think, saying anything all that strange if I say that a lot of voters would like to return a No just to indicate how fed up they are with pretty much every part of "the establishment", so the argument that we could safely delay because the Treaty would be renegotiated anyway was a very strong one, and I think that's reflected in the RedC poll.

So I wouldn't be sure it's necessarily a trend.

cordially,
Scofflaw