Interesting analysis of the consequences of a no vote

drg85

Really well written analysis of what would happen if the electorate rejected the fiscal compact

http://goo.gl/IiomZ

I think it covers the majority of salient points, opinions?

later12

When was that written? It says May 28th, but the following passage implies that the writer was sunbathing during last week's Summit.

It has been argued that we are somehow integral to the euro, that the EU simply cannot afford to cut us loose. Two things would seem to contradict this. The first one is the treatment Greece has received following polls suggesting that radical leftists SYRIZA would get into government. SYRIZA has campaigned on much the same platform as the No camp in Ireland, namely that the costs of kicking Greece out of the euro exceed the costs of subsidising Greece’s defiance, so walking away from the bailout would not prevent further funding. However, no sooner did SYRIZA look like winning a plurality than the prospect of a Greek exit from the single currency began to discussed openly by other European leaders.

There has been an undercurrent of gossip about a Greek exit from the Euro since May or June of 2010. But in case anyone missed it, European leaders re-affirmed their support for Greek membership of the Euro. Now, short of a coup d'etat, it's hard to appreciate how Greece could realistically be behaving any worse than it already is. They really are quite shocking; the only thing more surprising is their fairly unwavering support from Europe.

I don't think a break up is impossible, but citing Greece as an example of strict, no-nonsense, German rigidity is hardly very accurate.

gent9662

Good article, kinda scary to think what might happen in the case of a no vote

Crucifix

Is it just taken as read now that we'll need a second bailout in the near future?

Godge

An excellent article, should be required reading for anyone contemplating voting no.

drg85

Godge wrote: »

An excellent article, should be required reading for anyone contemplating voting no.

I think a lot of no voters are the kind who don't really care about facts - negative campaigning is easy, and SF / libertas have that stiched up; they'll exploit discontent cynically and that is worrying

TheBegotten

What if you were to re-write that article, factoring in the loss of revenue to the EU from American companies based in Ireland? Furthermore, we're no Greece. We aren't as deeply in debt, and we have stronger economical marriages with other countries such as Britain. What we need is decisive leadership, regardless of the party in charge. Ireland, believe it or not, is well able to support itself, despite this journalist's assertations. At this stage however, I would almost feel a coup d'etat would be needed to make us realise this, albeit not with Adams at the helm.
Also, 0.5% defecit? We wouldn't meet this in twenty years, and add FINES on top of that?

Scofflaw

TheBegotten wrote: »

What if you were to re-write that article, factoring in the loss of revenue to the EU from American companies based in Ireland? Furthermore, we're no Greece. We aren't as deeply in debt, and we have stronger economical marriages with other countries such as Britain. What we need is decisive leadership, regardless of the party in charge. Ireland, believe it or not, is well able to support itself, despite this journalist's assertations. At this stage however, I would almost feel a coup d'etat would be needed to make us realise this, albeit not with Adams at the helm.
Also, 0.5% defecit? We wouldn't meet this in twenty years, and add FINES on top of that?

There are no fines for breaching the 0.5% structural deficit rule, and there is no 20 year period for anything.

I thought there was myself originally, but in fact the rule is a reduction of 1/20th of the outstanding excess debt/GDP ratio over 60%, which is something quite different - all else being equal, you have roughly 184 years to reduce the debt.

It's actually Zeno's Paradox of the tortoise and the arrow.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Godge

TheBegotten wrote: »

What if you were to re-write that article, factoring in the loss of revenue to the EU from American companies based in Ireland?

What revenue do the American companies based in Ireland pay to the EU?
Last I checked, we collected our own corporation tax and kept it in Ireland? Is this another made-up top-of-the-head nonsensical argument?