Here's where the money will come from.....

TextingGuru

Taking the Bank debt (which doesn't belong to the people of Ireland) off our books, the deficit will be only €3.1bn in 2013, not the €18bn the Govt claim. The gap could be made up with increased income tax on those earning €100,000 plus per annum (e.g the 70,000 people paid from the public purse) and a small 5% wealth levy on the super-wealthy in our society.

The bank debt should be taken off our books and then we should sign up for this. Signing up now accepts the Banks debts and having signed we WILL go bankrupt and the Treaty will hammer us as we signed up for it.


This Govt accept the Bank debt and will do nothing to get it off our books, its the rock we will perish on

meglome

Right...

If we do a simple counterfactual and magic away the €62.5 billion we have pumped into the banks, the projected deficit for 2012 would fall from €13.6 billion to €12.8 billion or 8.0% of GDP. Eliminating the effect of the bank payments would knock 5% off the deficit; 95% of next year’s deficit is not related to the bank payments.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2011/11/deficit-and-banks.html

Why believe the government when you can believe one of our best economists.

beeftotheheels

TextingGuru wrote: »

Taking the Bank debt (which doesn't belong to the people of Ireland) off our books, the deficit will be only €3.1bn in 2013, not the €18bn the Govt claim. The gap could be made up with increased income tax on those earning €100,000 plus per annum (e.g the 70,000 people paid from the public purse) and a small 5% wealth levy on the super-wealthy in our society.

The bank debt should be taken off our books and then we should sign up for this. Signing up now accepts the Banks debts and having signed we WILL go bankrupt and the Treaty will hammer us as we signed up for it.


This Govt accept the Bank debt and will do nothing to get it off our books, its the rock we will perish on

We've already borrowed the money off the EU to repay the bank debts. It is done. The money is gone. We now owe the taxpayers in the rest of Europe that money.

I am so furious at this rubbish being spouted out again and again and again ad nauseum that I'm risking injuring my keyboard I am typing this so hard.

We can't "burn the bondholders" now, any more than we could avert the famine of the 1840s by introducing blight resistant potatoes now.

TextingGuru

"We've already borrowed the money"

Who is we? You are not speaking for the people of Ireland, they never did have a say in the most important decision ever made on their behalf since the inception of the State.

In order to pay the interest alone on this current debt that includes the Bak debt we would need a growth rate of 6% per annum. This is impossible now and for the forseeable future.
Therefore, it is a mathematical certainty that we require either writing off the bank debt or we will continue to go further and further into the red ...
AND BE DECLARED BANKRUPT UNDER THE PROVISIONS OF THIS TREATY

Vote NO until the Bank debt is taken off the books of Ireland, it does not belong to us

leftleg

Did you read this on the Indo over your lunch;

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fiscal-treaty/fiscal-treaty-deficit-will-fall-from-18bn-to-31bn-if-bank-debts-not-paid-claim-3123294.html

Was there an angelic sound and bright lights while you read it as in an epiphany; great for you so

antoobrien

TextingGuru wrote: »

Taking the Bank debt (which doesn't belong to the people of Ireland) off our books, the deficit will be only €3.1bn in 2013, not the €18bn the Govt claim. The gap could be made up with increased income tax on those earning €100,000 plus per annum (e.g the 70,000 people paid from the public purse) and a small 5% wealth levy on the super-wealthy in our society.

The bank debt should be taken off our books and then we should sign up for this. Signing up now accepts the Banks debts and having signed we WILL go bankrupt and the Treaty will hammer us as we signed up for it.


This Govt accept the Bank debt and will do nothing to get it off our books, its the rock we will perish on

Actually that's pure and unadulterated rubbish.

The only (currently scheduled) payments that we will be making to banks over the next few years will be the promissory note payments of €3.1 billion.

For your suggestion of taxing €100,000 incomes - go take a look at the tax returns form the 80s & 90s.

In 1993 we had 48% tax on approx €16k (inflation adjusted). The tax take at the time was £3.79 billion from income tax and the income levy. Converted to Euros & allowing for 19 years of inflation that's an equivalent of €7.614 billion. Allowing for the bigger labor market (1.6m in 1993, 2.1m now) we'd get about €10 billion in taxes.

In 2012 the people on €16,000, pay damn all income tax and the usc would work out at f*ck all.

If you were around in the 90s you'll remember hearing about Ansbacker, the bogus non resident accounts, the various tax evasion schemes. Hell there was a series of tax amnesties to get people to actually pay income tax in the 80s & 90s. The one in 9' alone gathered 260m (almost 7% of the tax take that year).

meglome

leftleg wrote: »

Did you read this on the Indo over your lunch;

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fiscal-treaty/fiscal-treaty-deficit-will-fall-from-18bn-to-31bn-if-bank-debts-not-paid-claim-3123294.html

Was there an angelic sound and bright lights while you read it as in an epiphany; great for you so

I started reading there and then I saw the claim was made by Richard Boyd-Barrett. Considering the number of actual economists who all agree that the majority of the money we've borrowed was for our day to day overspending which they have backed up with figures, I'll take his opinion with a massive pinch of salt.

No campaigner says stuff they'll never support with evidence shocker!!!

beeftotheheels

TextingGuru wrote: »

"We've already borrowed the money"

We, Ireland, through our democratically elected Government.

We later got the opportunity to turf them out and replace them with an alternative democratically elected Government (who I suspect you didn't vote for and don't recognize as legitimate despite the fact that an overwhelming number of us did vote for them).

Vote No to prevent Black '47!

View

TextingGuru wrote: »

"We've already borrowed the money"

Who is we? You are not speaking for the people of Ireland,

No, she wasn't but the government were speaking on behalf of the people of Ireland (as per the constitution) when they borrowed the money to pay off those bond holders.

Boulevardier

"We now owe the taxpayers in the rest of Europe that money."

Perhaps this is where we should be looking to, well, not pay all that soon!

Robbo

So, if Boyd-Barrett's to be believed on this and we implement his plans for wealth taxes, we could be running a tidy surplus next year. Seems legit.

TextingGuru

TextingGuru wrote: »

Taking the Bank debt (which doesn't belong to the people of Ireland) off our books, the deficit will be only €3.1bn in 2013, not the €18bn the Govt claim. The gap could be made up with increased income tax on those earning €100,000 plus per annum (e.g the 70,000 people paid from the public purse) and a small 5% wealth levy on the super-wealthy in our society.

The bank debt should be taken off our books and then we should sign up for this. Signing up now accepts the Banks debts and having signed we WILL go bankrupt and the Treaty will hammer us as we signed up for it.


This Govt accept the Bank debt and will do nothing to get it off our books, its the rock we will perish on

Why why why all the tax increases? Why not cut spending?

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

Why why why all the tax increases? Why not cut spending?

Social justice?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Count Dooku

Scofflaw wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

Why why why all the tax increases? Why not cut spending?

Social justice?

cordially,
Scofflaw

or populism which is more easy to sell in country where quarter of taxpayers pay most of taxes

antoobrien

Robbo wrote: »

So, if Boyd-Barrett's to be believed on this and we implement his plans for wealth taxes, we could be running a tidy surplus next year. Seems legit.

"We could get on higher income taxes on earners over 100,150 and 200,000 - [from] that you could get between €1-2bn extra into the State coffers, and you could raise through a 5% wealth levy on the...wealthiest people in this country" he said.

"You could raise between €5-10bn."

Muppet can't count.

Going by the revenue's income distribution stats (from 2010 - the latest available year):
100k-150k: €8,344.08m
150k-200k: €3,136.34m
200k-275k: €2,299.68m
>=275,000: €6,011.08m

Total income = €19,791.18m

If you put another 5% on those earning greater than 100k, you'd get a total of less than €1billion (€959.559m to be exact). It's probably not worth noting that the income tax contributions of these people is almost half the income tax take of the year in question (2010).

To get the kind of figures he's talking about you'd need to make it an extra 25%-50% extra tax rate on the total - not just the bits above 100k.

XrayMike235

[

We've already borrowed the money off the EU to repay the bank debts. It is done. The money is gone. We now owe the taxpayers in the rest of Europe that money.

The only (currently scheduled) payments that we will be making to banks over the next few years will be the promissory note payments of €3.1 billion.

I don't know what to believe. Bondwatch says we paid 2.25 billion out yesterday to a private bondholder, with €40 billion more to go and a scheduled timetable provided. Lots of comments on twitter last night reasserting this "fact". Didn't get a mention on RTE yesterday, too much bad news in advance of the referendum? But I don't know who bondwatch is or if they are to be believed.

http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/

I will be voting yes btw. I don't know if it is the right decision but it is the less risky option IMO. Even ignoring the annual deficit, the national debt needs to be rolled over on a continuous basis.

antoobrien

XrayMike235 wrote: »

[


I don't know what to believe. Bondwatch says we paid 2.25 billion out yesterday to a private bondholder, with €40 billion more to go and a scheduled timetable provided. Lots of comments on twitter last night reasserting this "fact". Didn't get a mention on RTE yesterday, too much bad news in advance of the referendum? But I don't know who bondwatch is or if they are to be believed.

http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/

I will be voting yes btw. I don't know if it is the right decision but it is the less risky option IMO. Even ignoring the annual deficit, the national debt needs to be rolled over on a continuous basis.

It's tempting to believe that the bonds of AIB & PTSB are being paid by the government, but the truth is that they're more than likely not. What's more likely is that the bond are being rolled over, with governmental or asset backing. Which AIB claim is the case with the bonds that were supposedly paid back yesterday:

Commentators on social networking sites including Twitter spoke out against the bond payment yesterday, but AIB sources said the controversial bond was not actually repaid at all. That's because the IOU had already been refinanced -- ie rolled over by bondholders -- in April.

The huge IOU was not covered by the State's banking guarantees, or even guaranteed by the state-owned bank.

Instead the IOU is a so-called 'covered bond' secured directly, or 'covered' by a share of AIB's financial assets.

If the bond was not repaid the bondholders would own the assets, rather than having a claim on AIB.

Cracker_Jack

TextingGuru wrote: »

Taking the Bank debt (which doesn't belong to the people of Ireland) off our books, the deficit will be only €3.1bn in 2013, not the €18bn the Govt claim. The gap could be made up with increased income tax on those earning €100,000 plus per annum (e.g the 70,000 people paid from the public purse) and a small 5% wealth levy on the super-wealthy in our society.

The bank debt should be taken off our books and then we should sign up for this. Signing up now accepts the Banks debts and having signed we WILL go bankrupt and the Treaty will hammer us as we signed up for it.


This Govt accept the Bank debt and will do nothing to get it off our books, its the rock we will perish on

Agreed.

beeftotheheels

XrayMike235 wrote: »

[


I don't know what to believe. Bondwatch says we paid 2.25 billion out yesterday to a private bondholder, with €40 billion more to go and a scheduled timetable provided. Lots of comments on twitter last night reasserting this "fact". Didn't get a mention on RTE yesterday, too much bad news in advance of the referendum? But I don't know who bondwatch is or if they are to be believed.

AIB paid out on such a bond, but we've already put the money into AIB to pay out on such bonds. Having put it in, we cannot get it back out again. Even if we put AIB into liquidation tomorrow, the bondholders get the cash before the equity holders (us).

Update - I missed that AIB rolled over the bonds, and that they're secured. In any event, AIB is still only open for business because of the cash we've put into it, and which we cannot get back out.

We have a very legitimate gripe about payments made to IBRC bondholders post entering a program. Those payments were, as admitted by an ECB board member, designed to try to protect Spanish banks. The Spanish banks are now past saving, and the Irish people are picking up the cost. But here's the thing, that cost to date is between €1bn & €2bn depending on what hair cuts we could have negotiated without ECB pressure to the contrary.

Our best bet is that a Eurozone solution is found for Spanish banks, and that that solution is retrofitted for us. But we're much more likely to benefit in my opinion, if we're still in the club looking for solutions, rather than being outside chucking stones in.

TextingGuru

"I will be voting yes btw. I don't know if it is the right decision but it is the less risky option IMO"
Incorrect, if we sign up, cannot pay this Bank Debt and the National debt (that is guaranteed we can't > we then go bankrupt and face the consequences having signed up for this.
LOGIC: Vote NO but message is we will vote yes when the debt that doesn't belong to the Irish people is taken off our books. That momentous decision taken by politicians should have been challenged by someone on behalf of us. That Bank debt does not belong to us. If this is the power of the politicians then someday soon Ireland could be 'sold' to another country for something like a $1 and we the people just look on - scary!

"Our best bet is that a Eurozone solution is found for Spanish banks, and that that solution is retrofitted for us."
Correct as the muppets there now are only interested in an interest rate reducton --- which is ridiculous, as if it would make a difference. It HAS to be abolished from our books and until it is then we are not in a position to sign this

ixtlan

I think there is never enough critical analysis of the pot of gold/wealth tax claims...

The first point is the "wealth" number being used includes much transient wealth... assets passing through the state accruing advantages... in many cases avoiding international taxes. Ironically socialists would be be favour of us closing such loopholes, in which case the wealth would instantly vanish from Irelandand pop up elsewhere, and applying a 5% levy would have the same effect. Actually I'm open to the idea of closing loopholes but there's no pot of gold there, we would suffer a revenue loss, and a loss of financial employment.

The second point is that high-wealth individuals are likely to leave the state if you apply a 5% levy to their wealth (much of that is overseas anyhow)... note that is taking everything you own over 20 years... Would you keep money in your bank if it changed from a 3% interest to a -2% loss every year.

Things are just not this simple. It's like kindergarten economics.

Ix

PopeBuckfastXVI

TextingGuru wrote: »

"I will be voting yes btw. I don't know if it is the right decision but it is the less risky option IMO"
Incorrect, if we sign up, cannot pay this Bank Debt and the National debt (that is guaranteed we can't > we then go bankrupt and face the consequences having signed up for this.
LOGIC: Vote NO but message is we will vote yes when the debt that doesn't belong to the Irish people is taken off our books. That momentous decision taken by politicians should have been challenged by someone on behalf of us. That Bank debt does not belong to us. If this is the power of the politicians then someday soon Ireland could be 'sold' to another country for something like a $1 and we the people just look on - scary!

"Our best bet is that a Eurozone solution is found for Spanish banks, and that that solution is retrofitted for us."
Correct as the muppets there now are only interested in an interest rate reducton --- which is ridiculous, as if it would make a difference. It HAS to be abolished from our books and until it is then we are not in a position to sign this

How much debt should be taken off our books, a figure to the nearest 1000 euro is acceptable please? Who will not be repayed, a list of names of individuals and organisations are acceptable?

It's your plan, please share the implementation details so that we can judge it's merits.

FreudianSlippers

TextingGuru wrote: »

Incorrect, if we sign up, cannot pay this Bank Debt and the National debt (that is guaranteed we can't > we then go bankrupt and face the consequences having signed up for this.

Just wondering where it says this in the Fiscal Compact Treaty?

LOGIC: Vote NO but message is we will vote yes when the debt that doesn't belong to the Irish people is taken off our books.

That's extending into a serious level of illogical thinking. The Compact goes ahead with or without us. The ECB is going to allow QE to "write off" debt for any country... certainly not because we voted "no" to allow ratification of the Treaty.

Anyone who has told you that we can use this as some bargaining tool is flat out telling you porkies.

That momentous decision taken by politicians should have been challenged by someone on behalf of us. That Bank debt does not belong to us. If this is the power of the politicians then someday soon Ireland could be 'sold' to another country for something like a $1 and we the people just look on - scary!

I remember a good amount of debate on what the best way forward was during the bailout and guarantee. I don't believe that they made the correct decision, but they made what they thought was the best decision at the time.
The grass is always greener on the other side, but if we had large failed national banks we may be in a worse place today.

TextingGuru

How much debt should be taken off our books?
Very simple, the Irish people will accept that amount on our books up to when the ploiticians took over without a referendum to the people of this momentus decision. The Bank debt taken on since to pay German and French Banks and unnamed bondholders has NOTHING to to with the people of Ireland. This extra amount is the tipping point Ireland will NEVER be able to deal with and consequently bankruptcy is inevitable - unless the same politicians decide to sell us to the USA or Britain or Germany or China, whoever sometime in the future - after what has happened in the past it seems they have that power to do that in the future

When signing up for this treaty we the Irish people are signing up to obey the rules of this treaty, pay back everything, balance the books or be further severly penalised. After 40 years in the EEC we should have a similar health service to Germany/France etc not have our people waiting days on trolleys in run down hospitals (they are heading this way make no mistake about it)

Yes THEIR treaty goes ahead without us but the people of Ireland have voiced their opinion and why - we can see the inevitable happening with the Bank debt included


"Anyone who has told you that we can use this as some bargaining tool is flat out telling you porkies" - we the Irish people are not into bargaining about this matter, it isn't our debt get it off our books, we cannot afford it

"I don't believe that they made the correct decision, but they made what they thought was the best decision at the time" you use the word THEY - 100% correct, they made the decision WE the people of Ireland should have made it, let Europe take on the debt of the Banks. Remember, if the Euro collapses Germany and France suffer most by 40% reduction in exports thus decimating their economies. They would have had to pay this Bank debt f Ireland didnt't

PopeBuckfastXVI

Simple request: name the french & German banks and the exact figures they got, and how you plan to get it back from them?

FreudianSlippers

TextingGuru wrote: »

How much debt should be taken off our books?
Very simple, the Irish people will accept that amount on our books up to when the ploiticians took over without a referendum to the people of this momentus decision.

Why would they need a referendum?

The Bank debt taken on since to pay German and French Banks and unnamed bondholders has NOTHING to to with the people of Ireland. This extra amount is the tipping point Ireland will NEVER be able to deal with and consequently bankruptcy is inevitable - unless the same politicians decide to sell us to the USA or Britain or Germany or China, whoever sometime in the future - after what has happened in the past it seems they have that power to do that in the future

The bank debt has a lot to do with Ireland actually... it's our debt. As for the rest of it... :rolleyes:

When signing up for this treaty we the Irish people are signing up to obey the rules of this treaty, pay back everything, balance the books or be further severly penalised.

Can you show me, in the Treaty, where it says this?

After 40 years in the EEC we should have a similar health service to Germany/France etc not have our people waiting days on trolleys in run down hospitals (they are heading this way make no mistake about it)

That's our own mismanagement of money tbh.

Yes THEIR treaty goes ahead without us but the people of Ireland have voiced their opinion and why - we can see the inevitable happening with the Bank debt included

But... what does it have to do with bank debt?

"Anyone who has told you that we can use this as some bargaining tool is flat out telling you porkies" - we the Irish people are not into bargaining about this matter, it isn't our debt get it off our books, we cannot afford it

:rolleyes:

"I don't believe that they made the correct decision, but they made what they thought was the best decision at the time" you use the word THEY - 100% correct, they made the decision WE the people of Ireland should have made it, let Europe take on the debt of the Banks. Remember, if the Euro collapses Germany and France suffer most by 40% reduction in exports thus decimating their economies. They would have had to pay this Bank debt f Ireland didnt't

We democratically elected our government to make these decisions. They are "we".

antoobrien

TextingGuru wrote: »

The Bank debt taken on since to pay German and French Banks and unnamed bondholders has NOTHING to to with the people of Ireland.

What a laugh. See this post for details of which countries the bonds originate, it makes it quite clear that it's not the French, German or Spanish banks were'e bailing out.

How I hear you cry?

Well the total estimated cost of the bailout is about €63 billion. The Euro area bonds are a total of €16 billion in 2008 at the time of the bank guarantee. The total bonds were €100 billion.

The original guarantee was for €400 billion - which also covered €296 billion for deposits from Irish residents!

If we were bailing out all bondholders the cost would be well over €100 billion. It's not.

TextingGuru

How much debt should be taken off our books?
Very simple, the Irish people will accept that amount on our books up to when the ploiticians took over without a referendum to the people of this momentus decision.

"Why would they need a referendum?"

They you mean we - because its OUR country they are playing around with.


"We democratically elected our government to make these decisions. They are "we".

They are not WE . We the Irish people are We they overstepped their authority in talking on Banbk debt that does not belong to the Irish people. They were not democratically elected they formed a partnership for power, Labour lied and became a tail of Fine Gael (and will go the same way as the Greens because of it, once they lose their power and go off into the sunset with their fat pensions)
Labours way not Berlins way was to me a declaration that they would stand up and tell Europe this debt does not belong to the people of Ireland and consequently got my and many other votes. They lied and then went on to sell our country to Europe by making a decision that should have been made by the people of Ireland

oscarBravo

TextingGuru wrote: »

...they overstepped their authority in talking on Banbk debt that does not belong to the Irish people.

Can you point to the constitutional provision that indicates that they didn't have the authority to do this?

Or are you making stuff up?

KindOfIrish

beeftotheheels wrote: »

We can't "burn the bondholders" now, any more than we could avert the famine of the 1840s by introducing blight resistant potatoes now.

May be you can't "burn the bondholders". I have burned them already by not paying my mortgage

PopeBuckfastXVI

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Simple request: name the french & German banks and the exact figures they got, and how you plan to get it back from them?

TextingGuru wrote: »

How much debt should be taken off our books?
Very simple, the Irish people will accept that amount on our books up to when the ploiticians took over without a referendum to the people of this momentus decision.

"Why would they need a referendum?"

They you mean we - because its OUR country they are playing around with.


"We democratically elected our government to make these decisions. They are "we".

They are not WE . We the Irish people are We they overstepped their authority in talking on Banbk debt that does not belong to the Irish people. They were not democratically elected they formed a partnership for power, Labour lied and became a tail of Fine Gael (and will go the same way as the Greens because of it, once they lose their power and go off into the sunset with their fat pensions)
Labours way not Berlins way was to me a declaration that they would stand up and tell Europe this debt does not belong to the people of Ireland and consequently got my and many other votes. They lied and then went on to sell our country to Europe by making a decision that should have been made by the people of Ireland

Again I'll ask you:

Simple request: name the french & German banks and the exact figures they got, and how you plan to get it back from them?