London 2012 Men's Triathlon 07/08/2012

bombidal

Interesting. Probably is a better chance of woman bike pack staying away. Course in London is very flat from memory of watching the races there in the past couple of years.

The Men's UK team hardly need a swimmer to push the pace though. The Russians and the Czech guy are incredible swimmers and will surely be going as hard as they can anyway from the start. Maybe Phillip Graves for his bike like in Athlone a few years back.

couerdelion

bombidal wrote: »

Interesting. Probably is a better chance of woman bike pack staying away. Course in London is very flat from memory of watching the races there in the past couple of years.

The Men's UK team hardly need a swimmer to push the pace though. The Russians and the Czech guy are incredible swimmers and will surely be going as hard as they can anyway from the start. Maybe Phillip Graves for his bike like in Athlone a few years back.

Didn't the Brownlees get a break away at the trial event last year?

I think Graves has decided to concentrate on IM distance. He was over racing IM Lanza last weekend.

The third Brit place is really up for grabs and really could be anyone. Don and Clarke failed to finish in Madrid so third place will probably be a domestique, not that the Brownlees need one. If that's the case then I think Clarke will still get the nod but he won't be anywhere near them in the race.

peter kern

flat and cornery so the best change for a break it the water.
Grave dosnt meet quali min standards and could not be chosen even if uk wanted
I hope the uk goes with clark as I think he deserves it most. but then Dom is one of those guys that can hit bike days or they could go with a 2016 potential to get oly experience.
whichever way you do it one of Dom or Clarke or both will think why the f... I am british.
as this is the only county in the world where one of them would not qualify.
I think both should race and I would like to see the top 20 athletes in a proper world ranking ( one like in tennis) to qualify regardless how many people from 1 nation. yes its important to have many nations but its also important to have the best of the world.
and i mean the third person of canada is not in the ballpark of dom or clark .

anyway its about as easy to predict a winner as to predict the irish weather ;-)

bombidal

The first 3 is easy to pick I think, maybe the first two. The order is not.

10/11 A Brownlee
13/8 J Brownlee
6/1 J Gomez
10/1 anyone else

couerdelion

bombidal wrote: »

The first 3 is easy to pick I think, maybe the first two. The order is not.

10/11 A Brownlee
13/8 J Brownlee
6/1 J Gomez
10/1 anyone else

On form I'd agree with that. I think Jon Brownlee would have been back for Madrid but decided on a smaller race instead. Expect to see another Brownlee 1-2 at the next race.

Is Gomez injured too?

Amz

He has the flu according to the commentators yesterday.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

I would not be surprised to see Murray from SA nab the bronze. I was really impressed with him recently and for a guy of his build he can really put down a good run time.

catweazle

peter kern wrote: »

as I am pretty sure the Us and Uk will drive the pace very hard in the swim
and I think uk s 3rd athlete will be one of the 2 young super swimmer to work as domestique for jenkins

I agree with you here, no real need for a domestique for the two Brownlees but a Lucy Hall pushing the swim for Jenkins will put huge pressure on all but the top swimmers. Jenkins was able to lead a swim breakaway that stuck in San Diego which is a similar course so she may well look at doing that again and try and take out some of the top girls early

Bambaata

On all on for Jonny Brownlee taking it at the olympics. I like his shy more natural approach to these post race interviews. Thats said im a Gomez fan, i think he deserves it after racing to 4th injured last time. Its gona be a cracker though and i shall be pitching my tent from 6am to try get a spot where i can catch some of it

Fazz

I'm a Brownlee fan and just hoping that the top guns are all in form and racing fast.
That will give the best spectacle, and also ensure the best man on the day wins.

I cannot see it being anyone outside of the 2 x Brownlee's or Gomez though.
They just seem a cut above the rest with no weakness.

As to which Brownlee I'd like to see win, either, as long as both are firing on full cylinders a 29:xx 10k will do it for me.
Didn't Johnny run the fastest last year on the London course? 29:30 something I think it was.
I know that was after a tactical bike but still, you'd expect them to be hitting low 29's this year so.
Could be Epic.

I'm hoping for a small bunch leading out of T2, and a low 29 blast from the 2 brownlee's and gomez with some surges and outstanding running displayed!
Hell it may even require a sub 29 to win! :eek:

peter kern

the darkest horse is Mario Mola he beat Johnny brownlee in the under 23 world champs two ( was it 3)years ago.
Just saying since nobody talks about that and what if if they really plan out everything for this 1 day callled the olympics it was after all Spain that invented the team tactics in triathlon that made Rana a world champ and this time he could protect mola in the water and help him to bring him into a good position and then bring him on a pack
and australia with domestiques could join to bring kahlefeld in position.

I am always suprised Mola has not jet developed into a superstar as he has all the ingredients , but then who would have bet on jan frodeno , kate alan etc to win olympic gold . and if you can beat a brownlee once
at the most important junior race, why is it out of this world that it could happen again...
still I love the way the brownlees race and they deserve to win more than anybody else apart from gomes.

MrCreosote

Seeing as the qualification period is over, maybe it's time for its own dedicated thread for news, views and predictions.

Who's going to watch??

69 days to the men's race.

The Aussies announce their team tomorrow!

couerdelion

As already has been said in another thread the men's race seems like itwill be a straight shoot out between the Brownlee brothers and Gomez.

Brownlee wise - As much as has been said about the GB pair not needing a domestique I think it could help if they can find the right person. It needs to be someone who has the sole task of pushing the swim at maximum pace in order for a break away pack to occur and it needs to be large enough to get a lead group away on the bike. If they do that they'll be even more definite favourites. Problem is that there swim is already that good that there's no one really who can push except perhaps Wiltshire and I aren't sure he got the qualifying criteria. Be interesting to see anyway.

Gomez seems to be avoiding the spotlight. I think his flu this week was him taking pressure of needing to perform in his home round.

Others - I can see Bryukhankov being in the mix as he always seems to be there or there abouts.

I think Jonny Brownlee has been very clever in how he's approached the last two ITU races. He's been so dominant that there must be doubt amongst the rest that they are able to beat him and it's become a barrier for them.

peter kern

should you not have moved all this stuff into the paranormal forum ;-)

LCD

What about the old guard Whitfield & Docherty? Personally don't believe either are in with a shout. But who had money on Fredeno & Whitfield before Beijing?

elvis jones

I have the day booked off work, what time is it on at ?

bryangiggsy

LCD wrote: »

What about the old guard Whitfield & Docherty? Personally don't believe either are in with a shout. But who had money on Fredeno & Whitfield before Beijing?

Was thinking the exact same thing. Gomez dominated last time around but couldnt produce on the big day. A brownlee injured will not bode well. does he have enough time to get the correct training in? remains to be seen. J Brownlee for me at the moment with macca getting on the Aussie team...and saying f u to the selectors and hammering the bike and ripping the race to bits but being caught on the run. I fully believe there will be a name you dont expect to see on that podium.

MrCreosote

elvis jones wrote: »

I have the day booked off work, what time is it on at ?

Estimated Race start is 11:30am.

MrCreosote

LCD wrote: »

What about the old guard Whitfield & Docherty? Personally don't believe either are in with a shout. But who had money on Fredeno & Whitfield before Beijing?

I can't see them threatening. They haven't been able to compete with the young guns in the last 2 years really, especially in the first few ks of the run.

Some dark horses like Laurent Vidal, Stefan Justus and Sven Riederer are surely in with a chance for medalling.

Anyone know how Alistair Brownlee's injury is progressing?

El Director

Heart say Gomez, prue gent, down to earth and a class act. Head says Johnny right now. Very impressive in San D and Madrid and an uninterupted winter behind him. I wonder when we will see Alister? Last year Alister came back from injury and took Madrid by storm so ou just don't know with him. Looking at Johnny though he seems sped focused, doesn't even bother with a sip from the celebratory champagne, sprays it and hands it over, not sure I've read too much into that (I have I know) but he looks set IMO. Delighted for Noble too, Great for Irish triathlon. What's the hope though for TI in the future? We should be looking for perhaps 2 in Brazil and maybe 3 4 years later. Now is the time to start plotting though and I am sure already plans are in place.

Whatever way it turns out this years oly final Should be I te resting although I suspect very predicable.....like Bryan above I suspect a surprise on one of the steps of the podium.

couerdelion

The GB Tri team have been told who is in there although the offical announcement isn't for another 9 days. A few twitter rumours that Will Clarke isn't the 3rd man and the Don is out so who?

peter kern

couerdelion wrote: »

The GB Tri team have been told who is in there although the offical announcement isn't for another 9 days. A few twitter rumours that Will Clarke isn't the 3rd man and the Don is out so who?

that would not be a surprise since both are not really in the inner circle of the GB system ( ie in the olympic podium kader) they dodnt use federation coaches, and politics is an important part in selection. you only take those guys if you really have to.
So I would think if you go on their website and have a look who is in their olympic podium program or olympic developemt program you have a better chance to see who could go.
when they downgraded clarks support 2 years ago that was a sign me thinks

El Director

Stu Hayes? If he can get in the lead pack and help drill the bike and breakaway perhaps?

shotgunmcos

El Director wrote: »

Stu Hayes? If he can get in the lead pack and help drill the bike and breakaway perhaps?

To cover breaks maybe, rather than make them. I don't see why the brownlees would necessarily need to break away as they can out run the rest from a level start. Perhaps the use of a GB domestique for the men would be to chase down breaks and slow them down for the pack to regroup?

MrCreosote

If only they had someone who could neutralise the Gomez threat before it gets to the bike and run.

LCD

El Director wrote: »

Heart say Gomez, prue gent, down to earth and a class act. Head says Johnny right now. Very impressive in San D and Madrid and an uninterupted winter behind him. I wonder when we will see Alister? Last year Alister came back from injury and took Madrid by storm so ou just don't know with him. Looking at Johnny though he seems sped focused, doesn't even bother with a sip from the celebratory champagne, sprays it and hands it over, not sure I've read too much into that (I have I know) but he looks set IMO. Delighted for Noble too, Great for Irish triathlon. What's the hope though for TI in the future? We should be looking for perhaps 2 in Brazil and maybe 3 4 years later. Now is the time to start plotting though and I am sure already plans are in place.

Whatever way it turns out this years oly final Should be I te resting although I suspect very predicable.....like Bryan above I suspect a surprise on one of the steps of the podium.

TI look to be doing good things with talent ID days & Junior Championships. Look at the job they did with Aileen Morrission, she was your standard good triathlete in Ireland. They brought her into the system, spotted potential and gave her the opportunity and self belief to develop to be an Olympian.

d4r3n

MrCreosote wrote: »

If only they had someone who could neutralise the Gomez threat before it gets to the bike and run.

Wiltshire maybe?

peter kern

ben shaw is doing really well too, but Iam sure a lot of boardies will say he is not proper irish ....

Bambaata

Not a hope for Hayes. He's married to the coach that Clarke went to so if leaving national fed coaches had an impact there there's no hope for Hayes. I suspected it isnt Clarke too from twitter comments. Most likely someone they want to blood for Rio

Bambaata

peter kern wrote: »

ben shaw is doing really well too, but Iam sure a lot of boardies will say he is not proper irish ....

He's as Irish as Emma Davis isnt he? Am i right in saying she's born and bred English? He really seems to be cracking the running splits. Early in his races he was waaay back on that leg but seems to be making good progress.

couerdelion

Mcnamee could be an outside bet.

If they are looking for a domestique it might make sense to go with another Leeds based athlete rather than a Loughborough one. Someone the Brownlees are used to training with day in day out and who they know the strength and weaknesses.

peter kern

Bambaata wrote: »

He's as Irish as Emma Davis isnt he? Am i right in saying she's born and bred English? He really seems to be cracking the running splits. Early in his races he was waaay back on that leg but seems to be making good progress.

emma was born in bangor north Ireland.

peter kern

ben has a fast run 3 k tt so its more a matter of time for him to transfer this to the olympic distance. i hear only positive things about this guy.(not that i know much)

catweazle

Interview with the Brownlees here

MrCreosote

Macca not selected. Not surprising. Pity though.

bryangiggsy

MrCreosote wrote: »

Macca not selected. Not surprising. Pity though.

Yeah saw this on Twitter about an hour ago. Sucks.

Sucks that the triathlon in the olympics has become a team sport with athletes selected to take one for the team. BS really.

tunney

bryangiggsy wrote: »

Yeah saw this on Twitter about an hour ago. Sucks.

Sucks that the triathlon in the olympics has become a team sport with athletes selected to take one for the team. BS really.

He doesn't have it in him.
He never did.

It was an ego boosting, profile boosting exercises.

I think the team aspect is interesting. Although I don't think that the team relays coming is going all that the ITU (and TI) think it is going to be.

MrCreosote

Realistically the Aussie men have barely any chance of medalling. Picking Macca might have kept the Aussie public interested to some degree.

tunney

MrCreosote wrote: »

Realistically the Aussie men have barely any chance of medalling. Picking Macca might have kept the Aussie public interested to some degree.

No favourite has ever won gold...........

MrCreosote

True, stranger things have happened, but there are too many ahead of them who'd have to have an offday. Break on the bike is their only chance I reckon.

Anyway Macca certainly wouldn't have threatened the podium, but the Triathlon Australia miss out on keeping the public interest held in the most important year of the 4-yr cycle. It'll be swamped by swimming/athletics/every other minority sport where aussies do well during the Olympics. Macca was the human story to keep people talking about triathlon.

d4r3n

If he was picked he could have been a useful domestique on the bike, he kind of had himself resigned to it if he was picked in a few interviews I saw with him.

But that's only if the other 2 guys didnt make the first swim group, which probably isn't as likely. If Macca made the first group (again, probably unlikely) he may have had a better chance at selection.

bryangiggsy

tunney wrote: »

He doesn't have it in him.
He never did.

QUOTE]

Come on Dave..u cant make comments like that and not back them up. Why did he not deserve the 3rd spot on the team?

tunney

bryangiggsy wrote: »

tunney wrote: »

He doesn't have it in him.
He never did.

QUOTE]

Come on Dave..u cant make comments like that and not back them up. Why did he not deserve the 3rd spot on the team?

Why did he deserve it?

Not a front pack swimmer and can't do the run.

He may have won Kona twice but that doesn't make him a class act in short course.

Its like saying Kilkenny should play their hurling team in the football championship. Both GAA sports yes, but wildly different.

He promotes himself well and markets himself well as a product but thats it.

Bambaata

The Macca story was a nice twist to the selection process but i don't think he ever thought he'd get selected. He gave a good interview at IM Cairns the other day speaking out about the mess TA have made of this - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HglV1uT76zM

pgibbo

Jaysus, but he loves the sound of his own voice. Valid points though

Bambaata

ah yeah he likes to talk but i like Macca. He generally gives a fairly honest account of things and just likes to stir things up. It makes it a little more interesting. It'll be interesting now to see if he does do HyVee and possibly the 70.3 worlds? His short course training should translate well to those. HyVee could be a real cracker this year if Lance, Whitfield and Macca do all take part.

couerdelion

I think Macca not racing helps the Brownlees. If anyone could have got the rest of the athletes working together to beat them it was him. Yes he loves the sound of his own voice and a lot of it is just self promotion but he speaks some sense.

Regarding no favourite ever winning the Gold. Triathlon has only been an olympic sport for the last 3 games. Hardly a huge range of data.

IMTalk were talking about the Olympics and asked what would happen if the Brownlee brothers were leading and decided to cross the line together? That would make huge headlines. (and a few others yet might have somethign to say about it).

peter kern

ironman is not about swimming and he had lost his swim then
and did not get it back in time so that makes him not slectable as a competitor for Australia ( and not even for Ireland would he have qualified ) or as a domestique.
Still I think for hawaii the last year will have helped him and he is one of the top 5 favorites to win hawaii. as that speed will help him and 5 month should get him back to long course shape.
its just hard with 38 (or ist 39 now) to go back to speed and he did well and if he had another year he might well have done it. to be a domestique or a top 25 finisher .

bryangiggsy wrote: »

tunney wrote: »

He doesn't have it in him.
He never did.

QUOTE]

Come on Dave..u cant make comments like that and not back them up. Why did he not deserve the 3rd spot on the team?

bryangiggsy

tunney wrote: »

bryangiggsy wrote: »

Not a front pack swimmer and can't do the run.

U dodging the question like a politician. 3rd spot on the team?
Cant do the run. Horse manure 31min 10k in San Diego. 3rd Australian home.

peter kern

Bambaata wrote: »

The Macca story was a nice twist to the selection process but i don't think he ever thought he'd get selected. He gave a good interview at IM Cairns the other day speaking out about the mess TA have made of this - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HglV1uT76zM

thats a great interview for does science make us slower thread
keep it simple ;-) ;-) and keep administrator out of the sport

Bambaata

peter kern wrote: »

thats a great interview for does science make us slower thread
keep it simple ;-) ;-) and keep administrator out of the sport

dont start that again!! :P