Power Rankings (Human .v. Human games)

helimachoptor

matthew8 wrote: »

Well I think it's fair to say we have a bit of a verdict. Keep it 5 days. That means that in 4 regular seasons would take 340 days, leaving us 25 days for 4 playoff series and drafts. If we're aiming for 4 seasons, we will need regular season early advances.

This will happen though.

I mean even if you take every second game week across 3 seasons getting done 1 day early.

Thats 25 days saved

If the wild cards get done 2 days early in each season thats 6 days saved

If the play offs get done 2 days early thats 6 days
If the conference championships get done 2 days early thats 6 days etc tc

Thats a lot of time we'll save without much difference to what we do now.

matthew8

Well it would take 340 days to get through the regular seasons and it took 18 days to get through the last postseason so I'll just round that at 20 and say that we're looking at 420 days to get through 4 full seasons with the current way of scheduling and no early advances. So 55 is a big numbers of days to shave, it essentially means a one day early advance nearly every week. But, if we decide to go 3 seasons that means we'll be going 2 months without BFL. That sucks. The way I would do it is go through the first season with a 5 day gameweek and then see if we're playing fast enough by our own accord and if we are we'll get 4 seasons, obviously, but if we're slower than the pace we'll hsve to decide to speed up or slow down (I say if we're only getting 3 seasons done we may as well use all our time and lengthen the week to 6 days).

helimachoptor

You sai abov 4 regular seasons would take 340 days?

matthew8

helimachoptor wrote: »

You sai abov 4 regular seasons would take 340 days?

With 5 day weeks yes. 5 times 17 is 85. Times 4 is 340. That plus 20 days per postseason for 4 seasons gives us 420. That's the base number to work off. Now I have a hard time seeing us shaving 55 days off the season if we want to keep players like empacher and ibmax in the league (which we obviously do because I feel like this summer a couple people left and it feels like the bottom has been taken out of the league), we'll be very lucky to get 30 off the regular season so we'd need a real commitment by playoff teams to play quickly and shave off another 6 days per postseason, which is 2 days per pre-superbowl round.

helimachoptor

Sorry my mistake I'm not adding on the play offs

BigBadRob83

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

Explanation first of how this is worked out. Tried to use a similar formula to ones I have seen used on some college football websites to rank teams, using your opponents winning % to determine to 'strength' of each win/loss.

Worsksheets:
RESULTS-Tracks all the results for seasons 2 & 3
Records (2-3)-Summarises each teams records in different types of games
Weighting-This is where the Weighted Power Rankings are calculated
Picture-Where everything goes into a pretty picture (below)

Only Human-v-Human game results are used for this.

Each game is given a 'weighting', to take into account importance (to give heavier weight to more important games)
Regular Season = 1
Wildcard = 2
Divisional = 3
Conference = 5
Super Bowl = 10

The 'value' of each Human win is calculated as follows:
Weighting * Opponents' Human Winning Percentage

The 'value' of each Human loss is calculated as follows:
1 * (100% - Opponents' Human Winning Percentage)
Removed weighting from losses, as would actually end up making someone who lost Super Bowl's record worse

The final Power Ranking number (Weighted Winning Ratio) is calculated as follows:
(Sum total of all Weighted Wins / Sum total of all Weighted Losses)*2
Multiplied by 2 so that the average player should equal 1.00, just to give a reference point


Anyway, think it gives a fairly accurate representation (not 100% accurate, but that's never going to happen). Might update it every couple of weeks as more results come in. Obviously, more results more accurate it becomes.

EDIT: Just to give an example of what this is calculating. Take the Falcons and Eagles (both 5-11 vs. Human opponents).
This ratio ranks the Eagles higher as their victories have come against better opponents (55.4% vs 36.4%)

great job rob

was hopeing i would get ahead of rizzo and nab the eagles

Berty44

I think you really need to decide to run either 3 or 4 seasons. The early advancement thing will not really work in my opinion as most guys have other things to do need to schedule in their games.

If its 3 there are other leagues that guys can join to play extra games ( www.maddenpfl.com where many of the guys here play as well ). That may be the way forward as there are guys who can only fit in so many games and we don't want to lose anyone.

SantryRed

Berty44 wrote: »

I think you really need to decide to run either 3 or 4 seasons. The early advancement thing will not really work in my opinion as most guys have other things to do need to schedule in their games.

If its 3 there are other leagues that guys can join to play extra games ( www.maddenpfl.com where many of the guys here play as well ). That may be the way forward as there are guys who can only fit in so many games and we don't want to lose anyone.

I was having a quick look over Berty and I may be wrong with this, but if we start the second week of September, and run 5 day weeks, if we shorten the play offs to 4 day weeks, will we not fit it in?

matthew8

SantryRed wrote: »

I was having a quick look over Berty and I may be wrong with this, but if we start the second week of September, and run 5 day weeks, if we shorten the play offs to 4 day weeks, will we not fit it in?

You are wrong. Regular seasons would be 340 days.

Berty44

17 regular game weeks per season

4 rounds of playoffs

17 x 5 = 85 days
4 x 4 = 16 days

= 101 days a season PLUS do a draft thats over 300 days leaves it nigh impossible.

Only way to get 4 seasons in would be to have every week a 4 days gameweek.

21wks x 4 days x 4 seasons = 336 days

Thats leaves less than a month spare so you could maybe change to 5 day week for final season.

adrian522

I think we need a poll or something...

Choices seem to be 4 or 5 day gameweeks

and separately should we use early advances or keep to a fixed amount.

helimachoptor

Ok, I'll add a poll to a new thread

BigBadRob83

Seeing as all the Human games have been completed for the week, thought I'd post up the updated Power Rankings after a couple more weeks of action



Made a slight adjustment to the calculation to make it more accurate

PREVIOUSLY
The final Power Ranking number (Weighted Winning Ratio) is calculated as follows:
(Sum total of all Weighted Wins / Sum total of all Weighted Losses)*2

NOW (Change in Italics)
(Sum total of all Weighted Wins / Sum total of all Weighted Losses) + (1 * Human Winning Percentage )

The change is to slightly increase the importance of your own winning percentage. Saw it looked a bit strange where teams with a good bit higher winning % were ranked below teams with lower win %.
To give you a flavour of the results of this; for the previous rankings, this change in formula would only have affected four teams:
Buccs (5) and Bills (4) would swap positions, as it looked strange that the Buccs 83% was below Bills 60%
Titans (16) and Chargers (15) would swap positions, as it looked strange that the Titans 50% was below Chargers 40%

Average player should equal 1.00, just to give a reference point
* Tested this out by copying all of the games into the workbook and reversing the result, so everyone ended up at 50% winning ratio and all teams had a Power Ranking value of 1.00

EDIT: Attached file

BigBadRob83

Noticed one little error-still had Cardinals down as Human team for last week. Only affects W/L total for Cardinals and Bills.

BigBadRob83

All Human games completed, and some big results over last two weeks see a lot of change up and down the rankings:



-The Buccs under ibmax keep up they're winning ways and look like the Packers' biggest threat in the NFC
-Bills drop down despite beating the Jets, thanks to their loss at Seattle
-The Raiders keep winning and rise up to no.9
-Lions big win over the Bears propels them back up
-Seahawks big win over the Bills which sees them jump 5 places
-This big jump affects everyone below in a crowded bottom third of the table, as the Chargers, Redskins, Bengals and Falcons all drop down

etloveslsd

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

The Buccs under ibmax keep up they're winning ways and look like the Packers' biggest threat in the NFC

Lets just ignore the team that have been the only team to stop the Buccs:cool:

ibmax

etloveslsd wrote: »

Lets just ignore the team that have been the only team to stop the Buccs:cool:

No team can stop the Bucs!!! Only the Bucs can stop the Bucs... and the weather in New york of course!!!

Stupid dome friendly roster, who drafted this team? Thankfully the Bucs play in a dome... division with lots of domes...

...Big announcement: Bucs are the NFL team moving to LA. From next season we will be playing in the "Andre Agassi Chrome Dome" in Hollywood

Paully D

Bump

BigBadRob83

Seeing as we're in the no-mans-land before Madden 13 and there are only 5 guys with anything to left to play for in the BFL, thought I might do a quick mock draft of the Madden 13 teams for a bit of fun.



Obviously not everyone will pick the team with best rating. Personally there is no way I could pick the Jets.

Who is the no.1 pick - Pats or Pack?
Will Dave end up with the Bills again?
Will Matthew pick second favourite team the Panthers or will he do an Al Davis and let his heart rule his head and take the Raiders?
Can Heli pass up the Titans for a higher rated team?

Based the rankings on the spreadsheet I do (will post up rankings after Packers-Buccs matchup) as the bottom of the rankings is decided and the guys at the top will only move a couple of places

Notes
Assumed everyone playing now at end of season will be back
(?) Don't know if thy will be back
* Still playing in M12 playoffs, so position may change

matthew8

Ugh, it's so hard to decide. The Panthers and Raiders both have so many positives for me. The Raiders of course have speed on their side, run a 4-3, have a strong defensive line and safeties. But the line can't block and the corners/LBs can't cover. That's where the Panthers are different. LBs are coverage gods. Unfortunately Sherrod Martin is a pile of crap. D-line also a big step down from the Raiders but Charles Johnson will at least allow me a pass rusher to play around with. The offensive line is a major strength for the Panthers, and the daily show gives me the sort of back I want. Greg Olsen is a guy I love (though TBH I would rather Marcel Reece of the Raiders) and Cam Newton would be absolutely awesome to play with. The one concern is the WRs. Steve Smith for the first year is fine but he really starts slowing down, at which point I would have to turn to Gettis. I would have Louis Murphy back though. On the other hand the Raiders have awesome Madden WRs in DHB, Ford and Moore.

I think I'll pick the Panthers if I can. Unfortunately Jerry Richardson isn't the easiest guy to make fun of.

And the team ratings for the Texans and Ravens are a joke.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

Ugh, it's so hard to decide. The Panthers and Raiders both have so many positives for me. The Raiders of course have speed on their side, run a 4-3, have a strong defensive line and safeties. But the line can't block and the corners/LBs can't cover. That's where the Panthers are different. LBs are coverage gods. Unfortunately Sherrod Martin is a pile of crap. D-line also a big step down from the Raiders but Charles Johnson will at least allow me a pass rusher to play around with. The offensive line is a major strength for the Panthers, and the daily show gives me the sort of back I want. Greg Olsen is a guy I love (though TBH I would rather Marcel Reece of the Raiders) and Cam Newton would be absolutely awesome to play with. The one concern is the WRs. Steve Smith for the first year is fine but he really starts slowing down, at which point I would have to turn to Gettis. I would have Louis Murphy back though. On the other hand the Raiders have awesome Madden WRs in DHB, Ford and Moore.

I think I'll pick the Panthers if I can. Unfortunately Jerry Richardson isn't the easiest guy to make fun of.

And the team ratings for the Texans and Ravens are a joke.

a joke to low or to high

matthew8

Miracle Powerful Terminology wrote: »

a joke to low or to high

Way way way too low. The Ravens were the third best team in the league, had a great draft and now find themselves behind the Falcons. The Texans on the other hand are one of the most complete teams in the game, and are lower than the Cowboys and Jets.

BigBadRob83

My wildcard win against the Chargers moved me down a few spots in the order,

Based on those teams, I would be tempted by Redskins, Cowboys or Texans, maybe the Saints. Don't know how much time we'll have once game comes out to make this decision.

Would agree the ratings for those two look a little low. Saints and Lions maybe a little low too

adrian522

Team OVR's are pretty meaningless anyway. I wouldn't let that guide my decision.

Individual player ratings are much more important, but even they are a fairly poor indicator, you really have to look at the different stat ratings for what's important at that position.

I wouldn't advise anyone to draft their team based on ratings. See what sort of game you like to play and draft based around that.

ibmax

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

Don't know how much time we'll have once game comes out to make this decision.

I'd hope to get a week or 2. We know we're not going to get 4 seasons no matter what so there's no massive rush getting the league started. the game comes out at the end of August/early Sept and I'd almost argue to give it 2 weeks before starting the year. my thinking being:

1. It'll give everyone a chance to get used to the game, see what works for them. Panthers might have had awesome LBs in Madden12 but if magic, leaping LB is removed will a strong LB corps be as vital???

2. It'll allow an updated roster to be used. This means players like 2013's Victor Cruz might be a factor as opposed to an afterthought

3. Season 3 won't end in June (5 day weeks) and we'll all be scratching our back sides for much of the summer.

As for the rating, i think they actually look alright. The teams up the top (Pack/Pats) look to have the greatest depth and the fewest holes across the roster. The next group (Ravens/Falcons/etc..) have excellent individual players but also some glaring holes. The next group's rating (Broncos/Cards/Bengals) look pretty solid too - they'll upset a few but that'll be the extent of it.... and the dross (Browns/Colts) are the dross!!!

the only team that look to be a little low are the Texans... but then player for player the rankings are probably right. It's the excellent coaching schemes they run that make them look better... and i don't think Madden takes coaching schemes into account when drawing up player ratings

Berty44

100% agree with ibmax's post above. M13 will be out Friday 31st August. Definitely should not be rushing to start season 1.

adrian522

I think we can do the team draft about 1 week before we start the league, does that sound like a good idea? Give people a chance to get used to to their team and playbook and what not.

By the way I think the Bengals could be a really good team in M:13 if Dalton and AJ Green progress as they should.

Danger_dave1

adrian522 wrote: »

I think we can do the team draft about 1 week before we start the league, does that sound like a good idea?

Not really, why not wait a few weeks, let people play the game and if new people have bought the game and are on boards they might just come looking for a league and they can then join from week 1 .

adrian522

My question was should we do our team draft about 1 week before we start playing the actual league or do the team draft and then straight into the league/franchise? Wasn't really considering when the league should start.

To that end I think we should be starting around mid-September. If we want 3 seasons that's when we should be starting. If you wait too much longer you lose a bit of momentum from the launch and from the start of the NFL season.

I guess a poll is the best way to decide.

BigBadRob83

I'd prefer to do it sooner rather than waiting around for other people who may or may not join the league. If they are interested in playing, don't think playing from Week 1 would be a deciding factor in it.

As with other things that have been discussed about Madden 13, think a poll is a good way to go, see what people think.

EDIT: Having said that, will be trying to convince one friend of mine into the NFL to join up and wondering where else we can be recruiting besides the American Football forum?
Also, could keep a list of people who have posted in this forum that aren't in the BFL, PM them to see if they're interested?

Paully D

Cool mock draft Rob. A few things I predict - Mike will definitely take the Ravens at number 6. Packers will go number 1 ahead of the Patriots. The Jets will end up falling below their predicted 11th pick. The Lions will be picked ahead of their predicted 16th. I wouldn't be surprised to see those two teams swap positions on the board.

At number 20 there's a few teams I have my eye on. Probably shouldn't give too much away but what they hell. Those teams are the Bengals, Bills, Broncos and Chiefs. I should hopefully be able to get one of them, although I doubt the Broncos will fall considering who their QB is. The Chiefs could be an interesting option for me as a run first player with both Charles and Hillis, two very good Madden RB's. They're also a very young team with no player over 30 on the roster. No doubt they'll now get picked before number 20 :pac:

As for a start date. How about we aim for the first game week to start on Monday, September the 17th? We could do the draft to pick teams on the Saturday or Sunday when people tend to have a bit more free time? The NFL season will be in week 2 so the interest would definitely be around its peak. That would give everyone plenty of time to pick up the game as not everyone will be able to get it on release date and play numerous friendlies to see which teams they like, get used to the new features etc and it would also give the college lads a week or two to settle back in and sort out internet connection etc if needed. Those of us that are getting it on release date would get 16 days of practice. I think at that stage everyone would be wanting to get the league underway and would be raring to go? A poll is the best way to decide though, that way everyone gets a say.

One final thing. I'd guess that virtually everyone on Rob's list will be back for Madden 13, but it would be great if we could get another 2 or 3 players signed up for the new season and completely cut down on CPU games, as they are a guaranteed win 99% of the time and are very, very boring.

Overall after initially being disappointed with no fantasy draft I'm really looking forward to this and the spreadsheet Rob has done to keep track of the draft picks has been brilliant. I think we're in for a cracking few seasons.

davetherave

I'm back in for M13.

Back in Ireland, jolly old England and her short term contract turned out to be a very short term contract.

Was I was the worst player in the league?

Dave: My excuse is that the Browns are sh!te.
Crowd: But it was a fantasy draft draft Dave, you didn't have the Browns roster.
Dave: Errmm...Look a distraction!

So....Pack or Pats?
Ah maybe I'll just stick it out with the Browns, they have heart :pac:

helimachoptor

Lads, in the airport.. What would be the current draft order?

matthew8

helimachoptor wrote: »

Lads, in the airport.. What would be the current draft order?

It's on the previous page.

helimachoptor

Cheers, will be titans or Seahawks for me. Can't see the texans falling that far anyway

Nelbert

Disappointed with my final position but I suppose it'll help balance next year.

Will play as the top 5 teams on that mock draft and decided which one works best for me. I'm a Pats fan however so if they are available Tom and his gorgeous hair may be too hard to turn down! Well that and Gronk spike!


Whoever ends up with Vince Young please spend your days in practice trying to inflict a career ending injury, it's for your own good!

adrian522

Another thing to think about for the draft is "trade bait"

You may not want to take a team because they have a glaring weakness in some position.

However if they have depth elsewhere you could make some trades to strengthen elsewhere.

Hernandez is an obvious candidate who would bring good trade value without weakening the team too much.

Similarly in SF there are currently 5 running backs which is a bit ridiculous. Gore, Hunter, James, Jacobs, Dixon. If I get the niners I'd certainly move on at least 2 of those guys.

BigBadRob83

Yeah lots of things to consider when picking your team, especially as we'll be using the proper NFL cap rules, etc.

-Current roster talent (starters, depth, age)
-Cap space
-Future picks (though think this only affects Redskins and Rams after RG3 trade)
-Most important, personal preference!

Hate to say it Adrian, but can't see you getting your 49ers, or me getting my Pats.

adrian522

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

Hate to say it Adrian, but can't see you getting your 49ers, or me getting my Pats.

Well anybody who takes the Niners is going to be a mortal enemy for life.:mad:

Not that bothered as there will be lads of good teams available when I pick.

I'd be happy with Lions, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, Texans etc.

I'm signed up to 3 franchises for Madden 13. In one I've the number 1 pick (49ers), in another I've the number 30/31 pick and then in between on this so I'm sure I'll have 3 very different teams in all 3.

Can't wait really.

BigBadRob83

Updated rankings after the Divisional Round.

ibmax now the no.2 rated player after defeating 2-time Super Bowl champ SantryRed.
Bengals shoot up 4 places after wildcard win

davetherave

Here are the leagues records/results from season 1 if you really feel the need to add them into your spreadsheet, or if they are of any use.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Amb7i5eokd8bdHcxM3J5MmJzVkVXdjN5ejBoZjluZEE

BigBadRob83

davetherave wrote: »

Here are the leagues records/results from season 1 if you really feel the need to add them into your spreadsheet, or if they are of any use.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Amb7i5eokd8bdHcxM3J5MmJzVkVXdjN5ejBoZjluZEE

Cheers Dave, unfortunately not just the results I need to complete spreadsheet. Had to go back and see which games were Human-v-Human and which were CPU. Way too hard to do for season 1 in the old forum

etloveslsd

adrian522 wrote: »

Another thing to think about for the draft is "trade bait".

I don't see too much trading going on for 2 reason. Guys that are highly rated are gonna have big contracts, and you will take a big cap hit.

Guys with low ratings and smaller contracts is different. If some one came in for an offer of one of theses guys, i would be suspicious. The offerer has spotted something that I haven't. That would make he hesitant to dump the guy.

Obviously some guys suit 3-4 or 4-3 defences better and different offences suiy different players. But it would make me think long and hard before trading someone.

adrian522

I think there will be plenty of trades. Not to the extent of Madden 12 where guys are trading players and moving them on straight away, but certainly there will be a significant amount of trading. Don't forget we are playing 3 seasons and picks can be traded as well as players (I think).

Not all contracts will be back loaded and trading of backups is still a valid way to improve a team. One persons backup may be a starter elsewhere.

Fair enough you may be hesitant to trade a backup because someone else rates that player but if you have 2 good LT's but no good CB's and someone else is in the opposite situation then a trade makes sense for both players.

BigBadRob83

No changes from previous list.

What if?
ibmax would have taken over the no.1 spot had he gone all the way to win the Super Bowl, however it was not to be (this season anyway).
A Super Bowl win for the Lions would have vaulted Raoul up to no.7



This also means the draft list is finalised for Madden 13, which I will put up in the mock draft thread

Paully D

Have to say fair play Rob for doing the power rankings. The league is much better this year, literally anyone can beat anyone and we've seen that in the results so far.

helimachoptor

Big time paully, the league is very very open this year, AFC is going to be very very tight this year IMO