Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Jaffusmaximus

The Great Blocking Eagle of the Atlantic!

maquiladora

aboyro wrote: »

just out of interest, what is the time frame in the global sense of an SSW. what i mean is how sudden is the warming? is it hours/days/weeks???

It happens quickly, you can see how fast and how suddenly its firing up here now.



Redsunset is your SSW expert though!

aboyro

thats impressive. thanks guys:)

Rebelbrowser

Jerry on RTE just there semed fairly certain we have an easterly of some sort next weekend.

Pangea

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

The Great Blocking Eagle of the Atlantic!

Ah yes with the Artic arms trying to choke it

JanuarySnowstor

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Jerry on RTE just there semed fairly certain we have an easterly of some sort next weekend.

That seals it so then:rolleyes:

patneve2

All in all I'm getting a little bit excited looking at model output this afternoon

-ECM hints at atlantic lows undercutting the block accentuating the E/NE flow
-GFS 06Z definitely not as good but still very positive (it has been edging more and more towards the ECM)
-Developments in the strat suggest that the polar vortex will be seriously disturbed for a long period of time-possibly until the end of February (obviously not certain but the signs are good...I hope that it will be blown to pieces hehe)

The roller coaster has officially started... :eek:

BEASTERLY

Well the GFS has backed off it's previous trend of really cranking up the polar vortex in the medium to long range. Not as good as the 06z in tthe short term. But again I feel it was trending towards the ECM until post 102 hours and then seemed to revert back to the previous run, before diverging around the t168 mark.

Jaffusmaximus

Its going to be such a mess model to model until the all the variables settle in, specifically the strat warming. I have a strong feeling we will be looking at these kind of charts for weeks to come so best not to get hung up on things outside the models control!

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Its going to be such a mess model to model until the all the variables settle in, specifically the strat warming. I have a strong feeling we will be looking at these kind of charts for weeks to come so best not to get hung up on things outside the models control!

Its all part of the fun of watching the models. :P

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

Its all part of the fun of watching the models. :P

maquiladora

Next weekend's easterly promised by the ECM has now been diverted to southeast europe instead.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Next weekend's easterly promised by the ECM has now been diverted to southeast europe instead.

BUT THEY PROMISED!!! :mad:

Villain

GFS backs away but we are going to see a lot of changes over the coming week, Gerry was spot on after Six1 when he said the low pressure to our west will dictate what happens.

nacho libre

i think it's really the strength of the vortex and it's positioning after the ssw event, which will determine what happens in the longer term. if the section of the pv over canada moves back towards greenland and re energises, then it could be curtains for a sustained cold spell over us. we just have to hope the two further stratosphere warmings occur, if so this should hopefully put a stop to the vortex reforming anytime soon near Greenland

maquiladora

What a change from the 12Z ECM! A nice remember incase anybody forgot that FI stands for fantasy island.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

What a change from the 12Z ECM! A nice remember incase anybody forgot that FI stands for fantasy island.

Good point and I think its best not to get too excited until we see snow within the reliable time frame (around +72/+96 hours).

I swear, being a snow lover in Ireland can be so heartbreaking at times

D

eskimocat

ah sure that's the fun of it all.... we go up.... we go down... we go up again... sick bags are on the left on your way out... :rolleyes:
Oh and see ye back here next week to do it all over again!

maquiladora

derekon wrote: »

Good point and I think its best not to get too excited until we see snow within the reliable time frame (around +72/+96 hours).

I swear, being a snow lover in Ireland can be so heartbreaking at times

D

The rollercoaster has to come down to go back up again.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

The rollercoaster has to come down to go back up again.

OK, better strap my seat belt on so.............:D

D

nacho libre

the problem in the medium term is from downgrades we rarely get upgrades with regard to cold outbreaks. so i think the latest ecm will verify. however, in the longer term it's still game on- though we may have to look north instead of east for it to begin.

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

the problem in the medium term is from downgrades we rarely get upgrades with regard to cold outbreaks. so i think the latest ecm will verify. however, in the longer term it's still game on- though we may have to look north instead of east for it to begin.

The fact that the ECM has changed so much in the space of 12 hours should put a question mark over what its shows for around the longer ranges now too. If anything it makes it even less reliable.

Forecasters like Ian Fergusson have been warning for a while now that chaotic model output was likely in the wake of the SSW, which is currently happening. Well the ECM has certainly created some online chaos.

I don't think we've seen the end of the twists & turns by a long shot. That doesn't mean the easterly is going to suddenly reappear, but winter is far from over. Lots of potential in the coming weeks I feel.

Still have the ECM ensembles and the 18Z GFS later for more entertainment. :pac:

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

The fact that the ECM has changed so much in the space of 12 hours should put a question mark over what its shows for around the longer ranges now too. If anything it makes it even less reliable.

Forecasters like Ian Fergusson have been warning for a while now that chaotic model output was likely in the wake of the SSW, which is currently happening. Well the ECM has certainly created some online chaos.

I don't think we've seen the end of the twists & turns by a long shot. That doesn't mean the easterly is going to suddenly reappear, but winter is far from over. Lots of potential in the coming weeks I feel.

Still have the ECM ensembles and the 18Z GFS later for more entertainment. :pac:

If u want to see chaos check out NW its rutting season!

mickger844posts

Major downgrades coming from the ECM 12Z. Not the charts we wanted to see for sure. Still only one run but could be the start of more poor runs. The overnight ECM 0Z will tell a lot i feel especially if we see another run like the 12z. Still all to play for and interesting times ahead.

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

If u want to see chaos check out NW its rutting season!

When isn't it? The majority of the stuff on there should only be read for comedy purposes. Still worth looking at though since Ian Fergusson and some ex Met Office staff post there.

Jaffusmaximus

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/288020596707713025


MattHugo81
Yip, just to confirm but 12z ECM Control and Deterministic models are mild outliers against the ensembles from 168hrs onwards...

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

The fact that the ECM has changed so much in the space of 12 hours should put a question mark over what its shows for around the longer ranges now too. If anything it makes it even less reliable.

c:

i had a feeling it would show a significant downgrade in the medium term - it was too quick a route to significant cold, it just didn't seem plausible.
however that said, i've noticed that there is a consistent trend on later frames of recent ecm runs for heights to form over greenland, with troughing to develop over Scandinavia. this looks more plausible given the strat profile.
of course it may not happen, but i think we will get a cold spell in 8 or nine days.

What i find more worrying is the doubts over whether the second and third stratosphere warmings will happen, if they don't occur the vortex has a greater chance of moving west to Greenland and powering up again, if that happens then any cold spell will very likely be short lived. the fact chino' has gone quiet on the nw strat thread is worrying. perhaps it's simply just that he has a life away from all this:

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/288020596707713025


MattHugo81
Yip, just to confirm but 12z ECM Control and Deterministic models are mild outliers against the ensembles from 168hrs onwards...

The weekend easterly is off the menu before 168 hours though. Though it does mean the deeper FI part of the 12Z ECM is almost certainly garbage.

18Z GFS about to start. Wonder if it's FI will feature some eye candy after the bitterness of the ECM.

Min

It looks like an upgrade of sorts for the cold - further west at 144 hours compared to the earlier run.
-12 uppers over Germany pushing west.

BEASTERLY

The details not quite right. But the GFS has totally dropped its idea of the powering up the polar vortex in the the medium FI range. Which in my opinion is a bigger jump than the ECM, which keeps a similar but less favourable theme.