Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Jaffusmaximus

Musicman2000 wrote: »

They have the look of this mornings ECM 00z run which was very poor for longer term cold prospects, I have a feeling MT could well be right about waiting to early February for anything very cold and snowy.

I agree to a certain extent, but whom is to say what is the gold standard in cold weather, alot here would be happy with a few snowy days while some hardcore want 5 weeks with sub zero temp with records broken. Time to get one owns expectations in check before one gets let down!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Happy with ECm at 120

delw

t|nt|n wrote: »

Happy with ECm at 120

Yeah another slight upgrade

patneve2

ECM....it keeps getting more interesting...:)

cherryghost

GEM goes for something similar, perhaps a little colder, while the JMA looks similar, albeit weaker.

pad199207

My oh my that ECM is turning into something special.....

Musicman2000

pad199207 wrote: »

My oh my that ECM is turning into something special.....

Talk about a turn around from the ECM 12Z:D

200motels

cherryghost wrote: »

GEM goes for something similar, perhaps a little colder, while the JMA looks similar, albeit weaker.

This is what we want to see but I'll hold my breath as we've been here before.

pistolpetes11

at +96 were looking on track

Weathering

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

at +96 were looking on track

Looking good for Ulster

omicron

Weathering wrote: »

Looking good for Ulster

Not really, -6 850's @1015 slp isn't going to give you snow.

mickger844posts

ECM 0Z just what we wanted a continuation of the trend. I think we will take -8 uppers over most at 96hrs.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Posted this in the other thread but should go here

Good agreement on the 06z GFS out to 5 days and ensembles looking ok after that, certainly don't really follow the OP

power101

Massive changes on the GFS continues to bring cold very close to our eastern shores around 96 hours but the easterley is now replaced by a southerly wind further out.

Villain

That low is driving everything 06z gives some poke which kicks cold back East, next run could see it slacken or spin off.

BEASTERLY

t|nt|n wrote: »

Posted this in the other thread but should go here

Good agreement on the 06z GFS out to 5 days and ensembles looking ok after that, certainly don't really follow the OP

Thats the 00z

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Thats the 00z

Sorry, typo, I meant 00z

More coffee....

pistolpetes11

Update from NOAA

SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DEPICT A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO IL...AND POSSIBLY INTO SE IA. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND MORE NW TRACKING SYSTEM...
WHICH RESULTS IN OUR FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

That nw tracking system is the one that heads towards western Greenland and phases with troughing in the west Atlantic.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
DIVERGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ANOTHER SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS PHASED WITH MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.

I should also add though that NOAA didn't think much of last nights ECM operational run in terms of what it did with the PV in the USA.

LATE DAY 6 TUE THRU DAY 7 WED FOLLOW A 70/30 WEIGHTING OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS GIVEN ROBUST ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT AND
VERIFICATION CONSIDERATIONS IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS ITS NRN CANADA VORTEX WELL SWD OF CONSENSUS BY
WED.

omicron

I don't think ME have ever used the words wintry and snow so much in a forecast, certainly not this far out!

During Saturday night, most parts of the country will be dry with clear spells, although showers may appear again near eastern coasts and also in the northwest and west. Winds will become light, northerly with severe frost and ice occurring widely. Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

maquiladora

omicron wrote: »

I don't think ME have ever used the words wintry and snow so much in a forecast, certainly not this far out!

Just goes to show how juicy some of the ECM output has been. We'll find out in about an hour or so if that will still be a wintry outlook!

M.T. Cranium

I'm not too swept away by the 12z output, inconclusive would be the best word to describe it ... and we're seeing some indications of the same model role reversal that came before the December downgrades. Not saying no cold or snow either, just perhaps more of a frontal boundary situation with the north likely to do better of course. Won't really expect to see any clear indications beyond weekend until perhaps as late as Friday's model runs, suspect there could be a downgrade again at 00z but that's just a hunch based on trends in each model.

nacho libre

it seems like the gfs has been the trendsetter this winter. it was they who said no first to the easterly back in mid December. i fear if there isn't a backtrack by the gfs this evening, then we're going to see the ecm once again changed its output to something similar to the GFS. Over on netweather they are banking the current ecm run.

ZX7R

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm not too swept away by the 12z output, inconclusive would be the best word to describe it ... and we're seeing some indications of the same model role reversal that came before the December downgrades. Not saying no cold or snow either, just perhaps more of a frontal boundary situation with the north likely to do better of course. Won't really expect to see any clear indications beyond weekend until perhaps as late as Friday's model runs, suspect there could be a downgrade again at 00z but that's just a hunch based on trends in each model.

Hi MT so would you say this is a false run and just a build up to february

Speak Now

nacho libre wrote: »

it seems like the gfs has been the trendsetter this winter. it was they who said no first to the easterly back in mid December. i fear if there isn't a backtrack by the gfs this evening, then we're going to see the ecm once again changed its output to something similar to the GFS. Over on netweather they are banking the current ecm run.

I think you're Giving the gfs a bit too much credit. The difference is their 4 runz a day is often shocking. Often the route to no snow is the middle ground between the 2 extremes. If you look at the models just to see will it snow or not it might mislead us into thinking who is best. Apparently ukmo leads the 4/5 day verication stats ahead of ECM. GFS Lags in 3rd.

Weathering

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I think you're Giving the gfs a bit too much credit. The difference is their 4 runz a day is often shocking. Often the route to no snow is the middle ground between the 2 extremes. If you look at the models just to see will it snow or not it might mislead us into thinking who is best. Apparently ukmo leads the 4/5 day verication stats ahead of ECM. GFS Lags in 3rd.

Superbly put

BEASTERLY

THE GEFS ensembles have backtracked towards greenland blocking... will it ever end?!

nacho libre

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I think you're Giving the gfs a bit too much credit. The difference is their 4 runz a day is often shocking. Often the route to no snow is the middle ground between the 2 extremes. If you look at the models just to see will it snow or not it might mislead us into thinking who is best. Apparently ukmo leads the 4/5 day verication stats ahead of ECM. GFS Lags in 3rd.

i certainly hope i'm giving it too much credit, but it was the gfs led the way back in mid december when it picked up the signal for a zonal pattern instead of a raging easterly depicted by the ecm. the ecm initially refused to back the GFS before falling into line. I think M.T. Cranium in his post is alluding to the possibility we might see the same thing occurring again. I'm looking at the models to see if cold will be sustained, as that increases our chances of getting decent snowfall to all levels, based on the gfs that's not going to occur.

pistolpetes11

If the ECM backs down from this , it will have been an epic fail ,

Massive pressure build over greenland in the ens

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

If the ECM backs down from this , it will have been an epic fail ,

Massive pressure build over greenland in the ens

Thats at 240 though? SUbject to the usual FI caveats?

EDIT: My bad, similar anon present throughout the run.

Nabber

It's 10 days out. Not sure why the models bother going that far.

I still think 96+ is the forum feeder output. Give people something to chat about.

No more than 3 days ago we were in for Atlantic muck reaching into Poland and Germany. Now look where we are in FI