Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Weathering

force eleven wrote: »

Met Eireanns outlook has dropped it's snowy forecast for next week, or at least put it away for now. Only goes to Monday. I'm getting a sinking feeling about this. Cold weekend and 4-7 degrees on Monday. Hmmm.

That is the same as their outlook from last nights update.
They only updated their short term forecast

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

I'm getting a sinking feeling about this.

Indeed. Fully expecting either a full or partial downgrade on the ECM this morning. It will be a grim end to the rollercoaster if it happens but it's been a great ride. Amazing period of model watching that will be long remembered either way.

force eleven

If ECM goes the GFS route then that's twice in two months it's gone wildly different in a short space of time. I'm sure there will be inquests going on somewhere. However , we await the 00z ECM yet.

Weathering

What happens if ECM sticks to its guns with this run??? Would you guys still favour the GFS?

force eleven

Weathering wrote: »

What happens if ECM sticks to its guns with this run??? Would you guys still favour the GFS?

Forum chaos will continue if that happens, that's all I know. Hunch is that ECM will back down and start following GFS. So, mild zonal sou'westerlies back next week. But, only time will tell. I'm not a professional but even they don't know....I'd say.

maquiladora

We'll know in 5 minutes.

opr

Not loving that 120 chart. Please don't let it all fall apart

Opr

maquiladora

This looks worse than the UKMO while not being as bad as the GFS. A real downgrade though. Moving towards the GFS.

pistolpetes11

ECM heading SW ?

opr

While not what we want to see the solution still looks nothing like GFS.

Opr

pistolpetes11

opr wrote: »

While not what we want to see the solution still looks nothing like GFS.

Opr

Just about to say that , but it has us on the warmer side of the uppers ,

Still not decided , this is madness

maquiladora

Feels like game over for this rollercoaster ride to me now.

GFS has been solid as a rock and the ECM and GEM have leaned closer to the GFS now. NOGAPS moved completely to the GFS. UKMO is on its own with its solution, as it often is.

We'll probably see a complete shift to the GFS by 12Z.

I'd advice against strawclutching as it'll only end up being more disappointing.

The winter isn't over yet.

opr

@Maq I don't understand why you are talking about a further shift towards GFS on the next run? ECM may not be showing what we want on this run but it isn't tending towards the GFS solution. The difference between the big three models is massive. I still think it's all still completely up in the air.

Opr

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Feels like game over for this rollercoaster ride to me now.

GFS has been solid as a rock and the ECM and GEM have leaned closer to the GFS now. NOGAPS moved completely to the GFS. UKMO is on its own with its solution, as it often is.

We'll probably see a complete shift to the GFS by 12Z.

I'd advice against strawclutching as it'll only end up being more disappointing.

The winter isn't over yet.

Its strange at such a short timeframe there is not real model consensus

3 main models all offering differing outcomes

force eleven

ECM at 168 isn't so bad, still has low pressure attempting to slide SE and bring cold SE to East winds over us in a battle of cold v mild. But it's 168. I agree with Maq, this looks ultimately like GFS wins again. Big defeat for ECM looming.

srmambo

maquiladora wrote: »

Feels like game over for this rollercoaster ride to me now.

GFS has been solid as a rock and the ECM and GEM have leaned closer to the GFS now. NOGAPS moved completely to the GFS. UKMO is on its own with its solution, as it often is.

We'll probably see a complete shift to the GFS by 12Z.

I'd advice against strawclutching as it'll only end up being more disappointing.

The winter isn't over yet.

The statement "The winter isn't over yet", may as well be straw clutching judging by how this winter is going.

At least there are some decent frosty nights in store.

pistolpetes11

gfs @168




ecm @168

maquiladora

opr wrote: »

@Maq I don't understand why you are talking about a further shift towards GFS on the next run? ECM may not be showing what we want on this run but it isn't tending towards the GFS solution. The difference between the big three models is massive. I still think it's all still completely up in the air.

Opr

They key thing is what happens during the crucial period early on, not the differences between the models later. GFS has held its ground solid over the past 4 runs, now we are seeing the ECM move towards the GFS by 120 even if it is only a partial shift, look at the orientation of the high to our southwest at 120.

Harps

Shame but was expecting to see that this morning, the GFS solution has always looked the more believable one and inevitably when an Atlantic solution is one of the options its far more likely to be the correct one, forecast still isn't nailed but looking decidedly less interesting than yesterday. Hype has been a bit ridiculous over the past few days but all a it of fun I suppose

pistolpetes11

Looking through this , people saying the ECM has massively backtracked I think are wrong

ECM 24



ECM 48



ECM 96



ECM 120

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just posted by Glacier Point on Netweather:

briefly...

Next week's forecast looks horrid and complex. I would go below average and becoming increasingly cyclonic. That brings an attendant snowfall hazard.

Ironically, day 10+ might be less problematic to get a broad view on.

Tendency in relative angular momentum is very likely to spike in the next few days. That will shoot the Global Wind Oscillation towards high amplitude phase 4. That teleconnects with the core of the +ve height anomalies in a triangle between eastern Greenland, Svalbard and northern Scandinavia.

GEFS has trended this way in the last 24 hrs, as has ECM. Also trending is the development of some energy off the residual pv over Canada into the North Atlantic, which most likely to reinforce the blocking signal further north and NE. Low pressure signal over Europe still very strong. Interestngly this perhaps resolves CPC's teleconnective issues w/r/t Greenland and Pacific blocking structures.

So period 14-21 Jan looking cold and unsettled with wintry mix. Thereafter, signal for renewed push of Arctic air from the NE.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

They key thing is what happens during the crucial period early on, not the differences between the models later. GFS has held its ground solid over the past 4 runs, now we are seeing the ECM move towards the GFS by 120 even if it is only a partial shift, look at the orientation of the high to our southwest at 120.

To be honest I am perplexed with today's output but really do not think that any model has trended towards another- Would not be so quick to go and congratulate the GFS or say its 'Game over' yet. The ECM still manages to form a greenland high and its only small mesoscale changes that are stopping the colder uppers from flooding over us on this run-NOT a complete synoptic change. If you look at the UK on this run you will notice they stay under very cold uppers-THATS how much the cold has shifted on this run, 300-500 miles at 5-7 days away, could easily swing back the other way.

Also the differences between the models at say +96hrs are due to how each of the models are handling the pattern upstream- over the USA. NOAA are going for a blended solution this morning.


ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND EARLIER 12Z MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONALSHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHACROSS THE SWRN STATES LATE FRI/EARLY SAT BEFORE THE ENERGY EJECTSOUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND SHEARS UP THE MID MS/OH VLY. THERE ISA DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THEDYNAMICS BUT AT THE SURFACE... ALL MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVEDEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX NEAR 72HRS OR 00Z/13 AND SLIDINGNEWRD INTO THE OH VLY BY 84HRS OR 12Z/13... ANYWHERE FROM SERN MITO WRN PA. TOUGH TO DISCERN THE SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES THIS FAROUT BUT A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/UKMET AND EC SEEMSSUFFICIENT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY COMPARABLE TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNAND STILL MATCHES THE ABOVE SURFACE SOLUTION... THUS STICK WITHTHE MODEL COMPROMISE.





Dan

Jaffusmaximus

ECM @ 96HR



GFS @ 96HR



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This is at the crossroads here. Both GFS and ECM diverge at this point, hopefully we will see which one will follow the leader this evening!

They both have that LOW to the west of Iceland going either up or down. If it heads south later on the GFS it will follow the ECM and vice versa if it heads north on the ECM!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

NAE upper temps looking the same on NAE 06z and GFS 06z

pistolpetes11

GFS makes small moves towards the others from 72-96 but then decides against the undercut ,

Im absolutely drained at this stage !

pistolpetes11

For those that are watching & are now bewildered-

The 06z has made subtle changes in the 84-120 timeframe- the downstream pattern is the same - so we see the upper air cold pool move west over europe to effect the SE-

Upstream to the NW this is the first run where the GFS is sending the energy & small low over greenland SE towards the UK through the UK as opposed to EAST through the block-

it starts this process & indeed gets some energy over the UK hence this PPN band-
http://modeles.meteo...snh-2-108.png?6

however it does lose the signal so continues with moving the rest of the atlantic jet & subsequent energy over the top still...

so we have a move to the euros in the gFS but not enough to sway the whole pattern YET-

its a bit like when you have a ridge to greenland with a small shortwave in the flow projected to move north with it- if on the models it starts in a northerly direction & goes up the west coast of greenland the greenland ridge builds -
Then the next run that shortwave is modelled a little further east- the margin of error gets thinner- but it still makes it up the west of greenland- then the ridge survives-
Do it again on another run the ridge just survives-
On the 4th run it edges east again- & goes east of the greenland tip & now recurves east- you have no greenland ridge & suddenly the whole pattern is different.

what we have here on the 06z is the same but the first step towards the euros with the energy dropping a bit further south insteand of EAST-
another step south at 12z may not make a difference, but do that on the 18z then come the 00z the whole pattern is different- hopefully to reflect the euros-

we are talking about small margins of error with the models speed & amplitude of the jet making LARGE differences at 144-

No model should be really criticised the are not that far apart.........

Reckless Abandonment

@168z the jet is tracking more southerly FI I know, but looking better in the long term ...

Speak Now

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

we are talking about small margins of error with the models speed & amplitude of the jet making LARGE differences at 144-

No model should be really criticised the are not that far apart.........

Pretty much it in a nutshell Pete, unfortunately most people just judge model performance by will it snow or not :rolleyes:
In short it's the butterfly effect :cool:

maquiladora

NW mod SP1986 posted this which sums up exactly how I feel about things now.

Still without a strong Greenland High anchoring the block, you will never get prolonged sustained cold, plus wiith the energy from the Atlantic pushing against the high, it's not going to be a simple as 'here's the easterly'.

It will take something pretty amazing to deflect the energy from the Atlantic, for example a strong Greenland high.. if that's not there the energy will just simply ride over, eventually flattening the high.

The GFS for me is on the right track, unless it develops a more substantial block. Even the euros don't have anything I would deem a substantial block.. but maybe that will develop in later runs.

BEASTERLY

Very disappointing this morning. I was genuinely surprised. I dont buy this "the mild solution will always win". Last night the GFS was on its own, didnt even have its own ens support. It does seem the GFS is superior in handling energy in the atlantic. Its not game over yet though, still a bit of hope to cling to.